US10Y - US02Y = Crash ZoneCrash Zone highlighted in Red. Fair warning is given as well; "Sell Sell Sell"
Governmentbonds
US02Y 2% H1 2023Downward curving spiral channel. Equities crash when we hit the top of the resistance line. Likely stock market crash Q1/Q2 2023 given rate of increase. Short-term consolidation period expected Q2/Q3 '21 before final rip. GG
10-year Gilts 1-day classic patternsQ: What has the highest probability of occurring?
Since early July there have been 4 tests of 132.000 resistance.
There is a combination of 2 classic patterns forming at resistance.
The double top, where both tops have been rejected at 132.000, is currently valid.
The head and shoulders, the head consisting of the double top, would need to break the neckline ~129.750 to become valid.
Both patterns equally project 128.250 as the target.
Objectively looking at the entire base beginning around the high volume bar in February it is curve-like. Looking to the weekly timeframe it is quite possible this is the formation of a cup with the handle to follow.
So there is some conflict in this area which can lead to a large number of market participants getting it wrong and as a consequence more momentum. It is quite probable that market participants have already shorted the double top breakout. Waiting for the head and shoulders to confirm with an ~129.750 neckline breakout before entry is advantageous. Stop placement above what appears to be a right shoulder at ~130.750 yields a 1.5R target.
It would also be beneficial to visualise the 1-week handle as a means of guarding against the 1-day head and shoulder pattern failure.
U.S. 10Y and 1D MA200. End of the road for bonds?The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield has just made contact with the MA200 (orange trend-line) on the 1D time-frame for the first time since December 2018! The closest it has come too after that was in January 2020. On both occasions that was the price top.
Additionally the RSI shows an interesting feature. A Double Top (red ellipse) signifies the start of a downtrend.
Time to sell this?
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Bonds Being Bearish? Long Side potential Trade at Trend LineThe rate of Bonds is at a very interesting place as highlighted in the chart! In depth exploration in the video below:
youtu.be
