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GOVT

30-Year US Gov't Bond Yields since 1977Here is a long term view of long term US Gov't interest rates. Long term is defined as 30 years and is a common bond owned by pension funds and insurance companies and other long term investors with long term obligations. I highlight the various ranges of interest rates as shown in these 4 boxes and the few moves that temporarily moved interest rates outside those boxes: 1. 1987 Stock Market Crash on collapsing USDollar, hiked capital gains taxes starting in 1988, trade wars with Germany, S&L crisis brewing from 1986 real estate tax law change, and Congressional moves to eliminate interest rate deductions on takeovers. 2. Orange County Bankruptcy 3. Great Financial Crisis "GFC" - massive deleveraging of the banking industry forcing asset prices down in a collapse. 4. Covid reaction by Gov't to shut economy down and stimulate spending and handouts to keep economy afloat 5. Current over-reaction to over-stimulation during lockdowns and supply chain issues.
TVC:TYX
by timwest
8
US Govt Real Debt is Down Last 3 YearsThe "real value of the US Gov't Debt" is a different way of looking at our situation through rose-colored glasses, but it is a fair analysis. If we "adjust the debt level for inflation" as measured by the CPI Index (All Urban Consumers Index) from the beginning of the series back in 1966, you will have a line that is grinding SIDEWAYS since October 2020 at a reading of $105.9 Billion. The latest number was the July reading at $105.1 Billion which is a slight decline. All of this sounds like "hocus-pocus" but it is a fact that inflation makes it easier for the Gov't to pay off its debt in the new "cheaper valued" dollars. The dollar is the same, only there are far more of them floating around in the system so each of them is worth less. If we analyze how the US debt has increased relative to other countries' debt, we could also see how we are doing. The financial market's are open for analysts to find discrepancies between the value of various currencies and over time, the market adjusts for the amount of currency being created in an economy. We can look at the TVC:DXY or US Dollar Index to see how the US economy has fared versus its trading partners. The Dollar Index is weighted for the amount of trading between the various currencies. I can follow up on that analysis in the next chart. For now, we can at least see an optimistic chart about the actual "REAL" amount of debt that the US Gov't (which is US, the taxpayers) has over the last 3 years. Covid spending and lockdown payments to keep the economy afloat certainly launched us up into the stratosphere FIRST but since 2020 that debt has been in a sideways pattern.
FRED:GFDEBTN
by timwest
6
LIVERMORE'S SPECULATION FUNNELHola traders, I hope you're all having a wonderful bull market thus far. I originally stumbled across this idea early in this parabolic move, but didn't quite see it playing out. HOWEVER -I caught a tweet from @cryptohamster yesterday and it clicked. Livermore's Speculative Chart 1 - 7: Asset is "coiling up" for a large move. 8: A bullish breakout of the rising broadening wedge (an otherwise bearish pattern) should allow one last point of entry before taking off (to the moon). .. I believe we could be at point #8 right now, however there is a VERY REAL possibility that I am off by 1 count here, meaning we could be at POINT 7 RIGHT NOW -and we could be looking at a pretty severe correction before kicking off some more INSANE price action. Some things to consider: The last 4 weekends, BTC has rallied into late Sunday night -leaving CME gaps below PA each time, then experiencing a corrective move as markets open the following Monday. Whales have been selling EVERY all time high over the last 2 weeks. There's always a bearish possibility, and in this case -we could be looking at one final shakeout before the rocket ship takes off -but with the total crypto MKCP nearing $1.1 trillion and BTC decoupling from the DXY -it's REALLY hard to be bearish on the BTC price right now. RETAIL FOMO comin in HOT! We could be looking at a $150K BTC in Q1 of 2020... emphasis on "could". Trade entries will be posted below -opened yesterday, however the plan has changed slightly -will be adding to my positions vs. taking profit. Keeping a trailing buy underneath of my SL. ARE YOU BEARISH? .. or are you BULLISH? I would love to hear your thoughts! (or read them).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BitCapJNY
13