GBPUSD outlook ahead of the Bank of England.This is a break down analysis of the GBPUSD ahead of next Thursday's (January 30th) Bank of England (Boe) Interest Rate Decision.
Fundamental Analysis:
- Starting with today, the U.K. Manufacturing PMI jumped to 49.8 in January (9-month high), while the Services PMI rose to 52.9 (16-month high). Both did little to keep the pair near the two-week high as investors weigh more next week's BoE monetary policy decision.
- The forecast for the BoE Interest Rate Decision is steady at +0.75%. If the actual reading matches this forecast there is a 66.7% chance of a bullish trend in the next 2 days based on the last 12 BoE events.
Technical Analysis:
- The trend on the 1D chart is neutral with all major indicators flat in the grey zone, RSI at 50.019, STOCH at 53.08, ADX at 17.289, MACD at 0.001. This is because GBPUSD is ranged inside a Descending Triangle with 1.2945 as the Support.
- The MA50 is supporting today.
- Descending trend on the RSI as well. There is no divergence.
All the above indicate that the pair will most likely continue the bearish trend on the long term (if 1.2945 breaks) eyeing the 1.2770 and 1.2550 Support levels in extension. However the BoE Decision can have a temporary bullish effect before the downtrend starts, similar to what took place in April/ May 2019.
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Gpb
Potential Bullish movement on EUR/GBP by ThinkingAntsOkDaily Chart Explanation:
We observe that price is facing the Support Zone. It is on a strong bearish trend, however, reaction is expected at this level. Keep in mind that this is not a trend change, just a retracement of the main trend.
Weekly Chart:
Possible trend shift in GBPUSD – going longThe Tidal Shift Strategy has just bought GBPUSD at 1.288. The system recommends entering this trade at any price between 1.2865 and 1.2895. The signal was issued because our Speculative Sentiment Index has hit its most extreme negative level for the past 145 trading hours at -1.10518, which suggests that the GBPUSD could be trending upwards.The 14-period Average True Range on a daily chart is 0.0012, so the stop loss has been set at 1.28201. This stop loss order is a trailing stop that will move up as the market moves up. There is no profit target for this strategy. We expect to be closed by the stop loss.Tidal Shift is a trend trading strategy that aims to catch shifts in trend using trader sentiment as an indicator. The strategy looks to buy when the Speculative Sentiment Index reaches its lowest value for the past 145 trading hours, and looks to short when it reaches its highest value for the past 145 trading hours.
Signal ID: 69351
Time Issued: Thursday, 14 November 2019 23:00:15 GMT
Status: open
Entry: 1.2865 - 1.2895
Limit: N/A
Stop Loss: 1.28201
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed here.
Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Possible trend shift in GBPUSD – going long
The Tidal Shift Strategy has just bought GBPUSD at 1.22868. The system recommends entering this trade at any price between 1.22692 and 1.23044. The signal was issued because our Speculative Sentiment Index has hit its most extreme negative level for the past 145 trading hours at 1.96118, which suggests that the GBPUSD could be trending upwards.The 14-period Average True Range on a daily chart is 0.00141, so the stop loss has been set at 1.22162. This stop loss order is a trailing stop that will move up as the market moves up. There is no profit target for this strategy. We expect to be closed by the stop loss.Tidal Shift is a trend trading strategy that aims to catch shifts in trend using trader sentiment as an indicator. The strategy looks to buy when the Speculative Sentiment Index reaches its lowest value for the past 145 trading hours, and looks to short when it reaches its highest value for the past 145 trading hours.
Signal ID: 67811
Time Issued: Tuesday, 27 August 2019 16:00:15 GMT
Status: open
Entry: 1.22692 - 1.23044
Limit: N/A
Stop Loss: 1.22162
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed here.
Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Possible trend shift in GBPUSD – going longThe Tidal Shift Strategy has just bought GBPUSD at 1.21711. The system recommends entering this trade at any price between 1.21502 and 1.2192. The signal was issued because our Speculative Sentiment Index has hit its most extreme negative level for the past 145 trading hours at 2.56227, which suggests that the GBPUSD could be trending upwards.The 14-period Average True Range on a daily chart is 0.00167, so the stop loss has been set at 1.20875. This stop loss order is a trailing stop that will move up as the market moves up. There is no profit target for this strategy. We expect to be closed by the stop loss.Tidal Shift is a trend trading strategy that aims to catch shifts in trend using trader sentiment as an indicator. The strategy looks to buy when the Speculative Sentiment Index reaches its lowest value for the past 145 trading hours, and looks to short when it reaches its highest value for the past 145 trading hours.
Signal ID: 67630
Time Issued: Tuesday, 20 August 2019 18:00:16 GMT
Status: open
Entry: 1.21502 - 1.2192
Limit: N/A
Stop Loss: 1.20875
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed here.
Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.