Possible trend shift in GBPUSD – going long
The Tidal Shift Strategy has just bought GBPUSD at 1.22868. The system recommends entering this trade at any price between 1.22692 and 1.23044. The signal was issued because our Speculative Sentiment Index has hit its most extreme negative level for the past 145 trading hours at 1.96118, which suggests that the GBPUSD could be trending upwards.The 14-period Average True Range on a daily chart is 0.00141, so the stop loss has been set at 1.22162. This stop loss order is a trailing stop that will move up as the market moves up. There is no profit target for this strategy. We expect to be closed by the stop loss.Tidal Shift is a trend trading strategy that aims to catch shifts in trend using trader sentiment as an indicator. The strategy looks to buy when the Speculative Sentiment Index reaches its lowest value for the past 145 trading hours, and looks to short when it reaches its highest value for the past 145 trading hours.
Signal ID: 67811
Time Issued: Tuesday, 27 August 2019 16:00:15 GMT
Status: open
Entry: 1.22692 - 1.23044
Limit: N/A
Stop Loss: 1.22162
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Gpbusdlong
GBPUSD formation and target price on daily chart - SHORTFormation done and broken down.
The price can be expected to decrease by the size of the bar.
Price is at the support line (blue line) now. It can come down again with a small exit.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
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GBPUSD -Are the Bears done?GBPUSD - A position trade
Analysis
GBP has been on a downward trend since it formed a double top Jan then April then unwound in a steep decline. The daily trend is short.
Technicals
Price has reached 161.8% of the last fib before the decline indicated by the blue arrows.
The extension has been reached and yesterday price formed a doji.
This level is also a really strong support level and role reversal. We would expect price to rise from here as the Bears take profit and the Bulls move in as the GPB is cheap.
The trade plan
Using my edge of mean reversion I am therefore considering a countertrend trade on this pair.
My targets are the 0.382 = 1.3709 (approx) & overlapping with the first level of resistance where I will be scaling 1/2 of my position
Then I will be leaving the rest for the overlapping retracement levels 50% & 23.50 of the previous rise and resistance.
On the four hour chart we have seen a series of higher highs and higher lows. Signifying a change of trend. However I need further confirmation that price is exhausted it’s lows and is heading up . London today may offer up an opportunity to enter.
Understanding how the GBP can sometimes overrun it’s fib levels or support/resistance levels then spike back we need to look for an area of good support and mitigate our risk. It’s similar to a freight train stopping and reversing.
I will wait for price to come back to a 0.382 on the 4hr CHART or the 1.3335 -1.3320 area with a stop near 1.3304. Patience will pay off on this trade plan if the GBP offers an retracement on the lower time frames. Sometimes GBP does not offer up a retracement making this pair difficult to enter once it begins to trend.
GBPUSD Expecting to Look for a New High Near 1.2720 RegionGBPUSD Looking to long near the support region around 1.2405 (Role Reversal & S&D) with a stop around 1.2310 region and targeting 1.2720 region.
However, if the market could go lower than my 1.2300 support region, MT bullish will negated and I will look for ST short instead.
Pound bounced from supportThe support around 1.235 seems to have worked. This will open way to previous swing high and 1.28.
If a retracement in DXY is on the works, pound can be the best pair to take advantage of this, as it lost minimal ground against USD and just bounced from a significant support.