Five-wave rally on Corn gives confidence - Elliott waveA five-wave recovery on corn (March 2022) from 585'2 level suggests more upside on a larger scale, however after a three-wave correction a-b-c as bigger wave 2.
Sub-wave v of 1 can be completed at the 619 high, in that case we will see a drop below the lower parallel channel line, which will be an indication that wave 1 is finished, and a three-wave corection as 2 underway.
Support for an a-b-c correction of 2 is at 604, where former lesser degree wave iv sits.
Grain
Are Wheat & Biofuels Supply Plays?Took positions in BG last year, & ended up trading out too soon. Here is a good dip & options are cheap, not trading advice just a MACRO play. As long as food prices are going up & Russian Export Taxes are increasing then Wheat Grain & Biofuels might still be valid fundamentally. Bunge is a global player so please check out their Fundamentals, SEC Filings & Prospectus before investing real money, also it costs nothing to check price action for a few weeks or months before making a decision. That's how lots of analysts make their very best decisions. In fact the way I came across BG was from bad information about an alleged Silver Squeeze. Don't follow hype, do your own research & make the best decisions for you & your investment goals.
Grain Supply ChainI read some stuff on social media bashing General Mills about price increases. While I don't agree with corporate greed, rising prices and outlandish CEO pay, I also don't agree with sitting back & doing nothing. I don't have all the answers but I did get into supply side trades last year. I wont give away all the details, but not buying the obvious things that people need every day to live is pretty...dull to say the least. You know what you use, what your kids like & what moves the markets. Having the information is just knowledge, using the info you have to make actionable PROFITABLE decisions is wisdom. Anything commodities related, is likely to get squeezed by inflation. Inflation, you know printing trillions of dollars in worthless junk currency? It was bound to make prices increase. The pandemic, & the supply chain crunch made it all that much worse! But! This could be an excellent buying opportunity for you, if you act. Doing nothing in life is very costly, & missing out on supply chain/inflation/pandemic trades is just plain lazy. Good luck!
corn trading analysisthis is an idea based on fundamental and technical analysis, we are at a potential buy setup as the fundamentals(the report referred) suggest a minor supply and bad planting timing of the crop.
it has to be remarked to read the comment of the acreage report at the end of the document and understand how the crop grows.
if focused only on the first page of the acreage report (acreage of corn +3%) you can see that at the date the market receipted as a major supply(a sharp drop of price) but it did not account for the very late planting time and it can affect the developing of the crop.
all the important reports:
USDA acreage acrg0619 pdf (28/06/2019)
USDA crop progress prog2919 pdf (15/07/2019)
(search by your self)
the setup is a buy if do not drop significantly below the parallel channel and watch the further development of the crop to maximize the profits in the closing of the positions.
the latest report of the USDA indicate an improvement of the growing stage of the corn, but it is still significantly below compared year on year, also the crop quality has this deficit.
Great Opportunity to buy farmland in South AmericaThis stock buys you land all over South America.
319,000 Hectares between Brazil and Paraguay, just to name a few (mostly in Brazil).
Exposure to an incredible emerging market.
Exposure to commodities long term (grain and sugar mostly, cattle as well)
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JP Morgan owns 7% of the float.
George Soros made this company happen.
Google Eduardo Elsztain - greatest Argentine real estate investor. He's LND's Chairman.
Commodity prices are depressed. As commodities rise in the future it will generate more income for farmland.
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Company has no debt.
Excellent growth.
Farmland known for its fantastic risk/return profile (it's land in Brazil, Peru, Chile, Argentina, etc, not a technology fad).
Under $5 per share so institutions are not allowed to invest, yet. What happens when prices hover above $5 per share? Domestic institutions have this stock on their radar and capital flows one way.
Boo Ya.
Most importantly, we have a great looking chart.
ZS upward "C" wave to come (???)Soybean has been a tough market for those traders seeking volatility as it has been on a “wait-and-see” mode for a couple of month now. I do not expect any major movement on the short/mid run; however, I do see a possibility to “widen” the current trading range.
The wave counting above suggests that a B wave would be completed (or nearly completed) and a possible upward C wave would be on the radar screen. For those (unlike me) seeking short-term opportunities it may be a good commodity to keep track on.
I am still holding my long position with stops on a range around 920, although I confess the weekly chart does not look that bullish. In fact, the MACD divergence is killing my sleep lately.
See my comments on ZC at:
We may see a “Pop” in Corn (???)(Forgive the terrible joke, but I couldn’t hold myself).
The 50% retracement on Corn suggests that a minor correction would be over making possible an “a-b-c” counting thus getting ready to resume the upward trend. However, at this point in time, it would be wise to keep an alternate count in sight as this correction could easily (and most likely, in my opinion) extend to the 0.618 fibo. I say this, as most indicators are either bearish or neutral on the short/mid run. Ichimoku, for instance, is “cloudy”.
Unlike soybeans (that has been on sideways for days now), corn has provided some interesting ups and downs for day-traders. For the long-term however I am still bullish and will keep holding my long position as long as prices stay within the 4-350 trading range, although I strongly suggest a stop-loss at levels close to 330 for money management matters.
Just for the records, I am a position trader (i.e. no day-trading).
Alliance Grain Traders (TSX:AGT) safely in uncharted TerritoryThis long term top performer is now safely into uncharted territory.and appears to be a low risk BUY.