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Can We Unravel the Mysteries of Wheat Market Stability?In an era of interconnectedness and unprecedented challenges, the global wheat market stands as a critical linchpin of food security. Its intricate interplay of supply, demand, and geopolitical factors has profound implications for the world's ability to feed itself. The wheat market, a cornerstone of global agriculture, is subject to numerous forces that can disrupt its equilibrium. Climate change, with its increasing frequency of extreme weather events, poses a significant threat to wheat production. Droughts, floods, and heatwaves can devastate crops, leading to shortages and price volatility. Additionally, the geopolitical landscape is fraught with tensions that can impact wheat trade. Conflicts, sanctions, and trade disputes can disrupt supply chains, limiting access to essential food commodities. Moreover, the growing global population, coupled with changing dietary habits, is placing increasing pressure on wheat production. As incomes rise, consumers are demanding more diverse and protein-rich diets, which can drive up demand for wheat-based products. This increased demand, combined with the challenges posed by climate change and geopolitical instability, creates a perfect storm of uncertainty for the wheat market. The future of wheat, and by extension, the global food system, hangs in the balance. Can we unravel the enigma of wheat market stability, or will the challenges posed by this vital commodity prove insurmountable? The answer to this question will determine the extent to which we can ensure food security for generations to come.
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by signalmastermind
2
Is Soybean Oil Heating Up? Of the grains and oilseeds, soybean oil has been the clear laggard. Corn, wheat, soybeans, and even soybean meal have seen notable rallies over the course of the last 4-6 weeks. However, there are indications that may soon change. As ingredient buyers know, soybean oil typically trades at a significant premium to its rival palm oil. The chart below overlays a 5-year continuous chart of front month soybean oil futures prices along with a 5-year continuous chart of Malaysian palm oil futures. As displayed by the chart, in each instance over the past 5 years in which SBO’s premium has eroded relative to palm oil, we’ve seen soybean oil prices rally in excess of 15%. Fund Positioning : Extreme fund positioning is typically viewed as a contrary indicator. As such, managed money funds holding their largest net-short position in soybean oil futures of any point in the last 5-years adds to the bullish case in the immediate term. Per the last CFTC Commitment of Traders report, managed money was holding a net-short position of 58,748 contracts. In the instance that prices grind higher, short-covering on behalf of managed money could accelerate a move to the upside. Technicals : Lastly, the technical landscape of soybean oil also looks constructive. There is significant bullish divergence between the two most recent lows, and a standard 14-day RSI. In other words, the most recent successive lows came on less conviction. A break and close above the most recent swing high of 50 should lay the groundwork for a test of the swing-highs observed last July between 64 and 66. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition. With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500 Performance Disclaimer Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
CBOT:ZL1!Long
by Blue_Line_Futures
Descending Wedge & Bullish Divergence on March SoybeansFundamental Outlook: There’s no beating around the bush - the fundamental outlook for soybeans is bearish. Global ending stocks are now at all time highs per the last WASDE report, and export demand for U.S. soybeans has slowed considerably - currently down around 19% year-over-year. As South American harvest progresses, the outlook of the Brazilian soybean crop has also improved. Talking Technicals: Despite the bearish fundamental outlook - the descending wedge, bullish divergence on 14-day RSI, and declining volume profile presents a bullish setup. Managed money funds remain aggressively short - holding a net-short position greater than 150,000 contracts across futures and options on soybeans. An upside breakout could result in short-covering, ultimately propelling prices higher in the near-term. Descending wedge patterns typically see sharp, upside breakouts which would be akin to the price action observed in a short-covering rally. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZSH2024Long
by Blue_Line_Futures
Is A Short-Covering Rally in Corn Imminent? There’s no beating around the bush - the fundamentals for corn remain bearish ahead of Thursday’s USDA report. Last month, USDA caught many by surprise revising ‘23 corn yields to record-highs of 177.3 bushels per acre. Since then, corn futures have continuously grinded lower. But, could a short-covering rally be in the offing soon? Per the last CFTC Commitments of Traders report, managed money funds have amassed a net-short position of 280,151 contracts (combined futures & options). That represents the largest net-short position in corn since 2019. While corn has continued making new lows, each of the last 4 contract lows have come in conjunction with less and less conviction - namely bullish divergence on the standard 14-day RSI. Moreover, the volume profile has gradually softened since the January USDA report. Thus, it's possible that all of the bears have already sold. The first step in a short-covering rally is getting bears to stop selling - and a friendly WASDE report on Thursday bares the potential to make that happen. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZCH2024Long
by Blue_Line_Futures
The Corn Market Rundown: Prices, Acres, and WeatherJust a heads up, I'm not a commodity expert, but I'm keen to give it my best shot. So, keep that in mind as we dive in! Have you been tracking corn prices recently? You might've noticed a halt at the $7.15 level, a mark set last September and October. Likely, a lot of investors decided to take profits at this level. All this is happening just before Friday's acreage report, which many believe could significantly influence the market. Expectations around this report are varied. Some anticipate a similar outlook to the last report in March. Others predict a significant drop in corn acres planted - think 500k+ acres less. If the actual numbers come in below market expectations, it should be a positive shift for corn prices. In the grain stock department, the USDA surprised everyone with their last report. The grain stock numbers came in lower than what most folks expected, and it did stir the pot. A critical factor that everyone is keeping tabs on is the condition of the crops. Currently, there's a severe drought in the Corn Belt, and we're experiencing some of the worst crop conditions since 1988. Some regions are even on track for the driest June ever. That's not exactly a record anyone wanted to break. On a brighter note, weather forecasts indicate some much-needed rain is coming to the Corn Belt. The coverage looks a bit uneven, and it's challenging to predict the exact amount (1, 2, 3 inches, etc.). So the question remains, will it be enough? So let's sum this up. We've got to pay attention to three key things: acreage numbers, stock numbers, and weather patterns. Here are three possible scenarios: Base Scenario: No change in acreage and stock numbers, and the Corn Belt gets the necessary rainfall. Worst Case for Corn Prices: Acreage and stock numbers come in higher than expected, and the Corn Belt gets enough rainfall. Best Case for Corn Prices: Acreage and stock numbers come in lower than expected, and the Corn Belt receives little to no rainfall. Looking back at the corn price chart, the post-pandemic price surge seems to be slowing down. Some might even spot an angled head and shoulders pattern on the daily. If the price breaks below $5.70, it's not a great sign for corn. A further drop below $5.30 is even more concerning. If you measure the head and shoulders pattern from the head to the neckline, prices could potentially revert back to pre-pandemic ranges. In conclusion, if you're considering going long on corn, or if you're a farmer, a scenario of lower acreage numbers, lower stocks, and little to no rain in the belt could open up a good opportunity to go long, book profits, or negotiate better contracts. I hope this analysis helps anyone trying to navigate the corn market. As always, stay vigilant and keep those reports and weather forecasts close by!
OANDA:CORNUSD
by natron
Corn Price Rollercoaster: A Technical BreakdownDive into the intricacies of corn price movements in this focused video analysis🎥. We'll tackle key support levels, observe the recent price plunge💥, and discuss what could be in store. Remember, I'm not a commodities expert, just a passionate observer👀 sharing my insights. Hop on this rollercoaster ride and let's decode the chart together! 🚀📊🤓 Got a take on these corn price moves? 🌽Drop your thoughts in the comments below. Let's get a conversation going!
COMEX:HG1!Short
by natron
2
November Soybeans Test 1300 The November soybean contract tested 1300 per bushel on Tuesday, trading all the way up to 1303 ½, before ultimately settling at 1296 ¾. The question is now - where do we go from here? Psychologically Significant Resistance Failing to close above 1300 means we failed to close above a psychologically significant resistance level at 1300. Moreover, we’ve previously identified 3-star resistance between 1294 and 1299 ¾. Because we closed within that resistance pocket, it’s possible that we test 1300 and beyond once again in Wednesday’s trading session. But what if we don’t? If the market corrects lower on the failure to trade through resistance, where do we find support? Previous Resistance Becoming Support If we reject higher prices in tomorrow’s trade, previous resistance between 1280 and 1285 ¼ should serve as the first line of defense. Meaning, that if we see prices sell off throughout the session on Wednesday, we should expect prices to bounce back somewhere between 1280 and 1285 ¼. If we cut through 1280 rapidly, the next sufficient support pocket may factor in near the 38.2% retracement level between the May 31st and July 24th price extremes - coming in around 1249-1250. The Bottom Line We are in the midst of a pivot in the November soybean contract. Tomorrow’s price action should provide guidance on the intermediate-term’s price trajectory. Last week’s USDA report was mostly supportive of the soybean complex, and export sales have performed well over the past 6 weeks. That said, net-exports remain lower than they were at this time last year, and global demand remains deflated. Pay close attention to tomorrow’s closing prices as they may indicate the direction of the trend over the next 2-4 weeks. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZSX2023
by Blue_Line_Futures
Is Corn Ready To Pop?Last week, we were looking for a potential bottom in corn. Since then, we’ve mostly traded sideways to slightly higher. However, the end of this week brings a “triple-witching” event - the end of the month, the end of the fiscal quarter, and the quarterly grain stocks report all occur on Friday. In last quarter’s grain stocks report, the market sold off fairly sharply as corn stocks were reportedly 54% higher on a year-over-year basis. The contract’s resilience in defending the lows is very encouraging considering the positioning of managed funds. In the chart below, you can see that managed funds have amassed a substantial short position over the course of the last 6 weeks. As of last Friday’s CFTC Commitments of Traders report, managed funds held 319,079 short positions. Meanwhile, prices have maintained a very tight 15-20 cent trading range. As such, there is significant fund rebalancing in Friday’s session, it may induce a short-covering rally. What does that mean? In order to exit a short position, the contract holder will have to buy a contract. If there is substantial buying volume, it will press prices higher, and force short-positions to exit ultimately resulting in a rally. The question then becomes - how high can we go? Considering that the December corn contract was unable to close above 500 a single time in the month of August or September thus far, that may be an ambitious initial target. In order to retest 500, and ultimately our 502-506 ½ 3-star resistance pocket, we will have to surpass 3-star resistance between 489 and 491. If we manage to trade through 491, it could lay the foundation for December corn to surpass 500 once again. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZC1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
Close to A Bottom in December Corn? After scoring a new contract low early in Tuesday’s trade, December corn futures managed to stage a late-session rally to close in positive territory. Moreover, the contract managed to close above trendline resistance that’s been in place dating back to June 20th. Price action on Wednesday served as a continuation of the late-session strength, with the contract closing 6 cents higher to close at 482 ¼ - marking a second consecutive close above trendline resistance. Prices have clung to the trendline very tightly over the last 8 trading sessions, and the previous two sessions are the first instances of prices closing above trendline resistance. So the question now becomes, are we close to a bottom in the December corn contract? Looking at price history and seasonal tendencies, we can see that the December corn contract typically bottoms out between the final week of September and into the first couple of weeks of October, before ultimately staging a moderate rally in late October. www.seasonalgo.com If we are indeed attempting to put in an intermediate bottom, we can expect a support/resistance flip. Meaning, that previous trendline resistance should now act as trendline support. In other words, if prices falter in the coming days, and test the trendline, we should likely see bulls come to defend the trendline. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZCZ2023
by Blue_Line_Futures
1
The Bollinger Bands are Squeezing the Juice out of GrainsSoybean short swing trade: The Bollinger Bands width has narrowed to 2.56% of price which is a level not seen in over a year. A new 6-month or greater low in bandwidth indicates that a volatility squeeze breakout is likely upon us. Similar volatility squeeze situations exist in wheat and corn but they both broke to the downside significantly last week. Wheat was -6.42% on the week, corn -4.21%, and soybeans lagged at -0.20%. Soybean price reached the lower parabolic SAR which is a signal to short the volatility squeeze. The stop loss is positioned at the upper SAR for this trade. A stop above the 20-day SMA would be more conservative. The overarching price pattern is a rising wedge with what appears to be a fake breakdown in late January. If we hold below the 20-day SMA it will roll over in 3 days. Wheat shows a similar setup already occurred a couple weeks ago but it was a head fake to the upside. There is risk in wheat being at the recent low pivot for the 3rd time. It could moon from here like gold did after making a triple bottom. Note the gigantic head and shoulders. Wheat: Gold: Note the lack of a Bollinger Band squeeze at the pre-moon triple bottom: Corn also shows a similar setup, but there was no head fake, it just broke down out of the band squeeze. Corn: Soybean Crush spread: It appears positioned for a big move in either direction. Seems likely to bounce back up in concert with a soybean drop. It’s in volatility squeeze territory as well. Oil: The mother of all commodities has an inverse head and shoulders continuation pattern suggesting more downside: tldr; short soybeans
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by Skipper86
2
Wheat Has Topped, But Corrective Recovery Can Be NearWheat has topped, but corrective recovery can be near, as we see it finishing a five-wave cycle from the highs. Wheat has been in a massive rally at the beginning of 2022 due to war in Ukraine, but now that stocks are trying to stabilize in the second part of 2022, we can see commodities slowing down within deeper corrections. Wheat has five waves down from the highs into first leg A, now unfolding and finishing wave "5" of A that can stop around 700 - 600 area. So, top is in place temporarily, but corrective pullback in wave B may occur at the beginning of 2023, which can retest the 950 – 1000 resistance area before we will later see more weakness within wave C. All the best! If you like what we do, then please like and share our idea! Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
CBOT:ZW1!
by ew-forecast
Wheat Futures Ready to Pop Again. Same Signal to Start 2020 BoomCOT Data is signaling that Wheat Futures ( CBOT:ZW1! ) are ready to pop after a few months of declines and chop As it currently stands, this is the shortest the Large Speculators have been on Wheat since 2020 where it bottomed at 589'4 to rally all the way as high as 1422'0. By no means do I expect a similar rally to ensure, but this does illustrate how oversold the large speculators are and what the consequences of that can be. I'm looking for a technical long reversal entry on the daily chart to enter the trade and then use sound risk management thereafter Notes on My Trading Methodology and What I'm Even Talking About COT Definitions: - COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities 1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson, Cargill, General Mills, etc) 2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds) 3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms) Indicators on Chart: - The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time - The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy, look to sell when it hits 0 - Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario) Trade Setup - Both Must Happen: - When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above) - On a daily chart, use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (not shown here) - Added bonus when the trend is your friend (I use a Multiple Moving Averages indicator to visualize)
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by Rudeadam18
Using Median Lines As a Trading Tool An Empirical Study - IThe Andrews Pitchfork takes three (consecutive) swings: ABC, and forms a median line by bisecting BC from A 80% of the time price will return to the median line from the C pivot Of that 80%: price will reverse at the median line around 30% of the time IF price reverses at the median line it will reach the upper 1 SD parallel 80% of the time C U ATH 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 NOT TARDING ADVICE All credit to Mr Greg Fisher for these stats and all his work on market geometry
SP:SPX
by Great_Reset_Investing
4
Corn Shortage! Blah Blah BlahThis week has brought about news on the projected corn yields dropping marginally, which in turn, is pushing this beast into higher territory. As we check out the chart we can see we have a significant golden pocket that will act as the Berlin Wall for corn. Prices below the golden pocket will act as East Berlin, controlled by the soviets during the Cold War. Trapped in a descending trend. If corn manages to push past the golden pocket + trend line resistance, corn will now be on the west side of the Berlin Wall. Free to explode into the June highs of $7.5. In this analogy, I personally think that the soviets will maintain control and rule over corn until harvest is over. Corn harvest has started in the south and will continue into Nov. As we harvest we will have more corn in the bins and ready to use. Which will lead to lower prices IMO. Simple supply and demand. Based off of the chart technicals, I am even more confident in saying that corn will be rejected because of where the GP and trend resistance lays. Once price reaches those levels I am expecting to see a bearish divergence on all three oscillators, and then I will go short big time. This could be a multi-month trade. But as always take profits on your way at key targets. Major short target: $5.70-$5.30
CBOT:ZCZ2022Short
by farmtrader15
3