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Grandcycle

Observing Stock Market with Yearly CandlesThis is an Observation i am making of regardless of if i am right or wrong about it. SPX printed a Beautiful Hammer candle : As Very bullish Hammer Candle was printed by SPX so that means Should we really expect a huge pullback or drop/crash in near term future ? I think not. Highly unlikely. One factor why This Supercycle Wave 5 of SPX is not finished or has plenty room to run is because of Duration of Wave 5 is nowhere near comparable to Wave 1 and Wave 3. Wave 1 and Wave 3 have spend 52 Years in Wave 1 Bull cycle and 58 Years in Wave 3 Bull Cycle. So at the very least Wave 5 should last as much as 30-40 Years or so. Another factor is that Wave 5 can get really extended and we can for minimum expect Wave 5 to give Wave 1 equal gains or even more so. Therefore, it can be said using this simple observation we shouldn't expect crash anytime soon. Pullbacks happen but overall Stock Market is very bullish for foreseeable future. Any sort of feedback from TradingView Community would be appreciated.
SP:SPX
by StunnerStock
SPY Ending wave v of (3) Bearish Reaction: Relief Rally (4) TBDMerry Christmas Traders! We find SPY near the termination of a minor fifth subwave v of Intermediate wave (3), which in turn is part of a larger primary wave One. Primary Wave One should terminate near SPY ETF price 219 on/about 31 Dec 18, after a 28-day decline from 3 Dec wave origin. Chart describes constituent components of Primary Wave One, including a i-ii-iii-iv-v minor negative impulse wave terminating in an A-B-C flat correction, and the subsequent steep decline to the "Christmas Crash" on 24 Dec, consisting of (so far) a wave 1-2-3- incomplete impulse. It seems likely that minor wave v of Intermediate (3) has terminated at Monday 24 Dec prices, given Fib extension of wave iii in price and time after four down days; however, a real possibility of a v wave Extension Path exists, shown as Alternate Path in chart. Given weak price action, panic-level selling could drive price to 226.5 before a 4th wave bounce. Intermediate Wave (5) target is 219.5, possible extension shown could drive prices as low as 211.5 or less. NB: Minor wave iii dropped ETF 10 pips, minor v has taken 7 more. Third waves are never the shortest waves. Selling waves typically last 3-5 days. Should get a turn on either 26 or 27 Dec for a likely 0.382 Fib retracement. A higher lift is possible but unlikely, given EW alternating wave theory, we already had a strong lift in 2nd reaction wave with a 0.50 Fibo retrace (noted on chart), ergo, expect this 4th wave will be relatively weak. A more robust Retracement Bear Rally of the entire December impulse would be expected after the completion of the (5) Intermediate Wave in December's bearish impulse, target shown in blue box as a rough possible estimate of ~ 254 - 265. Following that countertrend Secondary Rally, expect a powerful and severe Secondary Bearish Reaction with another 5-wave Impulse down to price levels reaching back to 2016, or even lower, should Panic and Despair prevail. Longer-term, I expect only more Bearishness. In 2008, NAS lost 80%, Dow lost 45% and SPX went off over half. This one will be worse. After 86 years since the Crash ended in August 1932, prices reached astronomical new highs in September 2018. There is a distinct possibility that this represents the culmination of a Grand Elliott Wave Supercycle, postulating Grand Wave V completed on 3 Sep 2018; if so, the Great Bear may finally be coming out of hibernation. Of course, this is speculative theory and remains unproved, nonetheless, it is a fascinating concept: en.wikipedia.org As always, these posts are purely informative ideas, and do not constitute investment advice. GLTA!
AMEX:SPYShort
by DaddySawbucks
19