DJI - Preparing For The Last Blow Of Top Before Big DepressionDJI is continuing to follow fractal from the "roaring twenties". While it clearly shows that we are about to experience one of the biggest financial reset, we should first get the last euphoric blow of top, sending DJI into 38-40k area. I highly doubt we will go much higher than 40k.
Be careful, don't laverage the euphoria, instead think of exiting the market as DJI starts to break into new ATH.
I am not a financial advisor so non of this should be taken as a financial advice.
DJ:DJI
Greatdepression
SPX - A major bear could be waitingSimply making a comparison to the time after WW1. We saw two major corrections, before a meteoric rise in the markets. We all know what happened next. The great depression. Now I am not saying we are about to experience potentially one of the worst bear markets since the great depression, I am simply saying that its possible and YOU should be factoring it into your thought process. You must understand that being a bear or bull is only relative to the timeframe in question. Professionals are realists and chartist. We let the charts tell us what could happen, and we use our analysis to determine our own probabilities on each scenario.
Remember, history rhymes..
The "CRAZIEST" Crypto Coincidence EVER! - XRP/USDFor the record, I am not a lunatic but rather an unconventional sort of outlier-type of thinker. What can I say... other than that I can not help myself from doing so 😁
From current book titles of "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order" to symmetrical price patterns, to brief excursions into some possible contrasts from ancient history with today. Heck! Who knows what's coming next in the world. It's becoming weirder by the day - or so it seems.
Future DJI Top - Great Depression cycle overlayStripped the chart down to the 2009-2021 current bull market fibs, and the Great Depression bottom to future top fibs, with an overlay of the DJI chart leading up to the great depression in 1929, with some very stark similarities (outside of covid, and the pullback im expecting here, though we got ahead of the great depression cycle both times to warrant a pullback). Again, I know im getting way ahead of myself here, but these fibs line up too damn well for me to hide these charts in private.. so if this plays out, you heard it here first.
s and p 500 nightmare The lost decade (Great reset) Not AdviceThe Great Reset or The great Depression 2.0 is very much a real possibility. This is purely my pessimism and the reason I started trading and have stopped investing. There is so much risk in these markets even fundamental value stocks will be dragged down with this. can anyone even guess at this point where the s and p 500 will be in 10 years?
Goodbye DJI: Broadening WedgeOn the left is the 3M timeframe which shows a trend line resistance extending all the way back to the Great Depression.
Touch 1 = Roaring 20's 1929
Touch 2 = Dotcom 1999
Touch 3 = 2010's Bull Run
Touch 4 = 2020 Covid Stimulus
On the right we have the 1W timeframe showing a broadening wedge nearing completion. Looks like we are finishing Wave D and about to dump into Wave E. However, this count could be off and we actually completed our Wave E in the March crash. From a fundamental perspective, I am leaning towards the former as the economy is not healthy at the moment. Disregard ATHs, stimulus, and vaccines. People are in debt, unemployed, and the dollar is inflating away.
Over the first half of 2021 I am expecting Wave E to play out. Reflecting upon the Great Depression, we had an initial wave of selling and a sharp buyback. This created the "V" correction that we have right now. However, the Great Depression then accurately reflected the state of the economy as it slowly grinded down for the next 3-4 years. That is what I suspect is coming.
I am ready, are you?
GOLD WILL 5X IN THE NEXT TEN YEARS!
Don't listen to those crypto Bitcoiners who tell you Gold is useless metal. Gold is used as jewelry, within microprocessors, and as a means of storing wealth. Last I checked, you can't wear Bitcoin as bling to your friends weekend Soiree ... With the advent of faster computers/robots/ AI that we will see in this decade, I foresee Gold's usefulness increasing significantly while also increasing in price as a hedge against inflation.
With the likes of AOS and the Squad pushing UBI we should see inflation around 3-4 % in the next few years. Imagine a gallon of milk costing $20 dollars. That day is not far away at all.
I am long Gold in this unlimited money printing economic state we are in until businesses start to innovate and expand the economy via new industries.
Currently, we are in a copy cat economic state. The same boring played out companies and played out ideas. Innovation and real expansion of the economy in a practical everyday sense will send the price of Gold straight down, but I believe we are years away from this. The economy is significantly over-inflated due to unlimited QE, and with earnings significantly lagging valuations, fundamentals are starting to come into play, and smart money is being funneled out of major equities across the board.
My bet is that banks and billionaires are going long Gold for the foreseeable future. Innovation will come after the equity bubble pops, and real pain is felt on main street. It will be devastating just like we saw during the Great Depression, but as a historian, I also look back to our forefathers in ancient Rome. Rome had booms and bust, peaks and valleys within its history. America is more or less modern-day Rome. We are an empire that needs to break down before we can morph into something better within the next 80 years leading up to the 2100s. I foresee that we will see great despair and exchange of money from smart money sellers to dumb money buyers. It is the nature of the beast we call the financial system. It will collapse, and out of the smoke, ash and rubble will be something new, greater, unique, and long-lasting. God bless the empire of America.
The Greatest Depression In Our Lifetime Is Here According to..The stock market is on the verge of an epic collapse set to occur now. The greatest depression in global economies that any of us have or will see is here according to this accurate model. My 'crystal ball' is not based on the quarantined talking heads filling air time with circular-referenced positivity in an utterly negative market.
Some loyal readers are wondering why I have not publicly published in more than a year, and no it was not a jail sentence. Up until May 2019, I had been manually running and tweaking an algorithm based on Elliott Wave Theory. I ran my algorithm and model in June 2019 which forecasted the beginning of a major market crash beginning in the first quarter of 2020. You can find the public mention of it at
After running the model and seeing what was to come, I needed to find a better way of running models in the future that is quicker. I spent the last year learning how to code and write computer programs. I knew there was a learning curve and it would take time, but I would be able to get much more work done in the future with the investment of time now. Previously, I manually studied about 5 stocks and ETFs at a time, and each one required hours of work and crunching numbers through Excel and Google Sheets. Now I am running algorithms against hundreds in a matter of minutes. My hiatus from public market forecasts has been worth it.
Now back to what you care about, the looming market drop. My program calculated every wave according to my interpretation of Elliott Wave Theory for the S&P 500 dating back to June 1, 1932. This is the estimated date that the index began its epic 5-part Grand Supercycle Wave 1. I reference waves and durations based off of the chart on my website which is also floating around on the internet. Grand Supercycle 1 is comprised of 5 Supercycle waves which tend to last between 40-70 years, but there is no concrete duration. The cycle that I have charted has lasted approximately 21,671 trading days from June 1932 until February 19, 2020 which is nearly 88 years. These 5 completed waves have only ended Grand Supercycle 1 meaning we have just entered Grand Supercycle 2, which is a significant and lengthy correction wave. On average, corrective number 2 waves last about 16 years from top to bottom and are reflected in a 3 wave ABC pattern. Wave A (comprised of 5 waves) goes down, wave B (3 waves) goes up, and the final wave C (5 waves) hits the bottom. We are in the very early stages of wave A slated to take the market and index down for 4-6 years, which I cover potential causes below. Wave B is projected to rise over 4-8 years possibly creating a new all-time high (ATH) in the index before Wave C finally hits the bottom in 4-12 years after B ends.
Although the index has charged hard and nearly recouped all losses observed during the early COVID-related shutdowns, the steam is gone. This 'V-shaped recovery' has been more mythical than actual recovery. The index is back to where it was before jobs were lost, schools were closed (forcing some parents to quit their jobs or find new childcare expenses), restaurants operate at half capacity or less, tourism died, travel was restricted across states, nations, and borders. The market says everything is fine, but the hidden reality is things have been propped up to appear great again on the surface.
I input all of the data from the last 88 years into my program to reveal where the next market top will occur from the March 2020 lows. I currently have the index in Minor wave C of Intermediate wave 2 of Primary wave 1 of Cycle wave 1 of Supercycle wave A of Grand Supercycle wave 2. This means the end of Minor wave C will also end Intermediate wave 2 and beginning a new chapter down.
The data from the minor waves were entered into the program to find reversal points. Minor wave A lasted 53 trading days and moved 1041.27 points. Minor wave B lasted 15 trading days and shed 233.39 points. As of the close of trading on August 11, 2020, Minor wave C has lasted 30 days having seen a maximum upward move of 381.27 points. My program returned 110 market tops and 110 reversal dates. I currently have the market topping between August 7, 2020 (Minor wave C day 28) and September 10, 2020 (Minor wave C day 51). This range was determined by the following chart of potential lengths of Minor wave C.
The specific reversal levels and reasons for reversal are found on my website mentioned in the signature block below.
DOWJONES Is this the countertrend rally of the Great Depression?I will not spend much time describing this as the chart is pretty much self-explanatory.
I have plotted Dow Jones trend of 1915 - 1945 (orange line) which includes the Great Depression against the trend of the recent decades (late 90s to 2020) which is displayed in blue.
Do you think they look similar? And if so are we currently on a similar counter-trend rally as in the start of the Great Depression? The comments section is yours, let me know!
Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!
P.S. For the record, I am not trying to scare anyone, just shared an interesting comparison.
Covid Depression 2020 reached point of no return? URATE at 14%.The Awesome Oscillator (graph below) went from negative to positive this month (MAY 2020). The last two times this happened in 2001 and 2008, recessions hit the US and the world economies were shacked. Is this the starting point of the downward acceleration spiral?
Gold/Silver Ratio 90 Year CycleThe last time the gold/silver ratio was breaking out in this manner was in 1929, and following the breakout, the ratio moved higher and higher and higher for YEARS.
Be wary of the gold and silver perma-bulls.
Gold is a necessary part of every portfolio as both a deflation and inflation hedge, but silver isn't. Silver is treated as an industrial commodity by the market.
Where will the FTSE Index bottom, or has it already....We have just experienced the largest market sell-off in history, just few weeks ago it was difficult to see where price would find some support - especially when market circuit breakers where triggering left, right and centre. As we're in the midst of the largest global health/economic crisis for at least the past 100 years, its clear the aftermath ripples of COVID-19 will influence some aspect of our daily lives for a long time...At this point it looks like we are headed for The Great Depression 2.0.
However, recently market sell-offs appear to have slowed down, as it looks like price has possibly found a little support. But in a general downtrend, its completely normal for market movement to slow down multiple times, even have a some small rallies to the upside before continuing to lower levels. The FTSE 100 seems to have found support at c.4,900 level, however if it doesn't hold above this level, then it's highly likely that we are headed towards the c.3,500 area - bringing us back to the bottom of the last financial crisis. If the market does play out in this way, then there will be some epic shorting opportunities ahead.
In the meantime stay safe readers, and I would like to leave you with the below thoughts from our good friend, which summarises the good old days (pre COVID-19) perfectly.....
"We're the middle children of history, man. No purpose or place. We have no Great War. No Great Depression. Our Great War's a spiritual war... our Great Depression is our lives. We've all been raised on television to believe that one day we'd all be millionaires, and movie gods, and rock stars. But we won't. And we're slowly learning that fact. And we're very, very pissed off" - Tyler Durden