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Greatrecession

Great Recession Fractal - This time is different?Greetings everyone. Check out my chart comparison of the period just prior to the stock market meltdown (on bottom) to where we are now here in 2022. Looks awfully similar to me. All kind of voices screaming don't fight the FED this decade plus long bull market. Now with the FED raising interest rates leading to demand destruction with the intent of combating inflation; those same voices believe they are bluffing. Capital from Europe and Japan is flooding into the dollar, not crypto and equities. If this plays out the DJI is likely enough to revisit the flu lows ($18K) of 1st QTR 2020 and BTC heading to $18-$20K on it's macro Wave 4. Cash will be king during this short term deflationary period until they print more stimulus, which I predict will be close to the mid term US elections.
TVC:DJI
by CryptoDude79
BTCUSD: High Chance to revisits the 200 week SMA before new ATH.BTCUSD just had a new week and I wanted to get the data on the close on both the On Balance Volume and combine it with the MACD. I will link just a couple of ideas to supplement this idea so it isn't to repetitive. Each idea covers a different set of indicators and guess what? All bearish. A review of my post history will show I have not vacilated between bearish and bullish over this time last month. Even when I called for a uptrend I called it a bull trap and that is exactly what it was. I have been watching the On Balance Volume with EMAS for a couple of weeks now. For some background information, it can be a bit hard to to OBV analysis on crypto because often the supply is constantly increasing and in other cases, supply will be burned. This can confound peak to peak or trough to trough analysis looking for divergences and is one reason why I missed a fair bit of this uptrend. But what doesn't really change is the OBV EMA crosses. If the 10 and 20 OBV EMAs cross that means there has been some change in selling or buying pressure. Not shown is the third EMA which I usually program to 100. There are also times I use a 25-50-75 and that can signal a major change in trend is coming. It is not a signal for people that want to snipe or scalp, but when the 25 OBV EMA crosses the 50 a big move will be incoming, especially on a timeframe like the weekly. You just have to wait for the price action to coil up and then release its tension. I wish I learned this earlier. I shall not explain the MACD because it is a more understood indicator. And I don't think it means too much that the OBV EMAs and MACD cross didn't happen exactly on the same candle. Now to discuss the 200 week... Not because it is so esoteric but because of the implications. The 200w has marked the bottom of ever bear market we have the available data for on the BLX chart. This has an implication that most don't want to consider no matter how technical the move is: BTCUSD will have to retest its previous All Time High. Even worse to consider is the 200w fails as support, but that is something to consider in due time. s3.tradingview.com The all time high of 2013 was retested but the high of 2014 was not. If the high of 2017 is retested we may have a scenario where every other ATH of bitcoin needs to be retested, or some other pattern as may develop. This does not inform any single trade between here and the 200w. There should be a lot of relief rallies or suckers rallies or bull traps between were and there. But historically it seems clear that after a powerful impulse on the weekly timeframe a bearish MACD cross and a cross of the 10 and 20 OBV signals a bear market. There is a chance that somehow and some way even though the MACD signals a major change in momentum that the bulls will somehow clutch and the buying will pick up. But I don't see a reason that would happen. If that happens I put this bearish sentiment on hold.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
9
Hyperinflation aheadOil the biggest traded commodity globally by far and therefor best indicator to detect commodity price inflation imho. From Investopedia artikel Why Didn't Quantitative Easing Lead to Hyperinflation? the following snippet: "During the Great Recession banks still had bad loans and toxic assets on their balance sheets as a result of the housing bubble burst and its aftershocks. While the central bank did increase the money supply sharply, banks used these funds to shore up their balance sheets and buffer toxic assets, rather than creating new loans." Expecting the banks to have continued with this responsible business model, hyperinflation will fall upon the world economy straight out of the blue imho. Very well possible the reason why the UJ Seasonality opening bell has us waiting since March '18 for its continuation. A confluence of circumstances leading up to the great recession of 2008 included economic disruptions such as SARS and a CDO housing bubble, a repeat of quite a similar series of events likely to unfold with COVID marking the start of it all..
TVC:USOILLong
by Deep-Peat-Shark
2
Gold as a leading indicator of 'the bottom'.TVC:GOLD In March - October 2008, gold was slowly crushed under the weight of an economic recession in full swing and sold off approximately 25% from the highs in February 2008. As counter-intuitive as that may sound to gold bugs, it is clearly shown that gold did not begin to perform well until near the lows of the Great Recession. As we approached that time, gold clearly behaved as a leading indicator that the bottom of the market was in, after a sharp divergence from selling into a bull run beginning November 2008 and lasting through August of 2011. Importantly, gold rose steadily from November 2008 to February of 2009, divergent from the market at the time. I remember this time well, and remember that people could not yet process that the bleeding in the markets was over. They were correct for a few months, but essentially, the bottom was near and the bleeding was soon to stop. I believe what we are seeing now in March of 2020 is the same thing. Not that the bottom is in, but that gold has begun a massive sell-off. For various reasons I believe that gold will continue to sell off, with radical swings in either direction over time, but with an overall downward trend in spite of incredible physical demand. For gold bugs, this is an excellent chance to metaphorically back up the truck on physical (miners to be discussed later), which based on recent premiums over spot on physical deliveries from APMEX is floating in the 4.95% range for gold (March 14, 2020) and an amazing 25.9% premium over silver (March 14, 2020). So, with extremely high demand on physical gold and silver combined with a rapid drop in equities markets, I am looking specifically for a reversal in the downtrend of gold (and less so silver, with gold as leading indicator of silver prices) to last not less than two full months before the beginning of what I believe will be a bull run in the gold market the likes of which the world has never seen. Exactly when that bottom occurs is anyone's guess, and the variables going on in the world right now are astonishing. What I am looking for again, is a major trend reversal that 'sticks'.
TVC:GOLDLong
by ChaChingus