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Greatreset

The Great Reset After Trading for some time ive gotten into all types of analysis, i personally found Elliot waves and Fibonacci retracements the most interesting, i look at long term and short term trends, and the other day i was looking at the S&P500 and DJI over large spans of time, and the more you trade using patterns and waves things just click when you see them, I spotted what i find to be quite the interesting pattern, a rising wedge going all the way back to 1896 for the DJI, and 1908 for the SPX respectively. This is all theory and chart analysis IS NOT full proof its NOT financial advice its NOT a warning its just me looking way back and you can too ive plugged in the charts i was examining and i must say its a bit scary to think about and if the wedge plays out properly potentially the greatest wealth transfer in history could occur. Let me know what you all think am i crazy or am i crazy lol AMEX:SPY SP:SPX TVC:DJI
AMEX:SPYShort
by giovannim7417
DJI/GOLD to drop longterm?It may not be that simple... Now that inflation is in the headlines, I decided to "follow the herd" and post an idea regarding it. To compare the current financial market with the market 100 years ago, one may analyze the pairs DJI/CURRCIR, or DJI/ GOLD . From the chart is trivial to realize that DJI/ GOLD historically moves inside the blue channel. Historically the following occurred in this specific order. A. The ratio increases from the bottom of the channel (without a significant change of course) to the top of the channel. B. RSI maximizes and then breaks it's increasing trendline. C. Near the RSI trendline break , price breaks it's trendline. D. Then a retest of the price trendline occurs. Only then the drop is significant. E. Price reaches the bottom of the channel. F. After a while, the middle of the channel is tested with a significant reaction to the downside. (In 1976 it caused the ratio to stop growing and the price went below the channel) G. The price now increases from the bottom of the channel, and the cycle repeats... Right now we are are in a make-or-break moment. We haven't reached the top of the channel and already the RSI trendline is violated to the downside and RSI indecisively fluctuates a little above the 50 mark. Shortly after the attempt passing the channel axis, a rejection occured. The price trendline is violated to the downside. It seems a second trendline exists now and looks intact. On the chart there are 3 very distinct cycles, which peaked in 1929, 1966 and 1999. The cycle lasts about 35 years. I find it very interesting that it is that consistent. Maybe the 35 year cycle is not that consistent and we are in an abrupt stop. And in the years following having DJI/ GOLD drop significantly. And it makes sense for a drop in stocks and gold exploding. We are talking about food shortages, water shortages and war. This is not a recipe for success for stocks. Most companies need a calm climate to grow. Or maybe in the end, even though we talk about inflation , money losing it's value and the economy being in the brink of collapse, we will grow until 2030 and then we collapse. After all, recessions happen when noone expects them to. We are also above the 1M, 3M Ichimoku clouds. Who knows what will happen? I certainly don't know what will happen. My gut feeling is "way down we go". It may be a controlled demolition of the stock market, but I don't think we have much room to grow for now in absolute terms.
TVC:DJI
by akikostas
6
Bitcoin the end of the Debt Super CycleWell I hope this analysis isn't correct as it would mean absolute devastation for every market Globally. But it looks like Klaus Schwab is getting his way with the Great Reset. This Analysis is predicated on the idea that Bitcoin has completed a wave 1 at Cycle Degree in November of 2021, meaning we are now in a Cycle Degree wave 2 correction which will correct the entire history of Bitcoin. Assuming the wave 2 at Cycle Degree will be similar to the wave 2 at primary degree, I have copied the price pattern and modified it to fit a longer correction (Blue line). A typical wave 2 in bitcoin's history has traditionally lasted 1/3-1/2 the time of the previous wave 1 with a depth of -93%. If this repeats in a similar way we should expect to see a bottom somewhere between June 2025 and June 2027, with price reaching a target range of $2500-$4500. In the short/medium term this count expects price to have a small capitulation over the next 1-3 months, followed by a counter trend rally over the next 6-12 months. This rally would most likely be catalyzed by the federal reserve pausing interest rates in response to inflation decreasing. However rising asset prices may cause inflation to continue to be stickier than people want. It's also entirely possible that the damage to the underlying economy caused by raising interest rates too high too fast will start to make its impact. If the latter is the case I would expect the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates near 0 again but similar to the GFC of 2008 the damage will already be done and we will see a massive capitulation in all markets before finding a bottom 1-2 years later. I know a lot of people will not enjoy this analysis but this seems to be the most likely scenario unfortunately. If you look at markets across the globe it's clear we were in one of the largest asset bubbles in history and that bubble has popped. Look no further than Shiba Inu Token which exploded over 10,000,000% in one year, with no underlying fundamentals. Good luck everyone and remember not to overleverage yourself as that is the entire reason we are in this situation.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by kg_sol
1
The Great Reset!!!CAUTION ONLY BIG BRAINS FROM HERE ON OUT!!! White: US 10 Year Bond Yield Orange: US Debt to GDP Blue: US yoy inflation "Inflation transfers wealth from creditors to borrowers for all sorts of nominal debt, not just government debt." -- Christopher J. Neely, Vice President at St. Louis Fed. What is the Great Reset? Is it a new 1929 Crash, a new Great Depression? No. The real Great Reset is the controlled writing down of US debt-to-GDP which has reached unsustainable levels and surpassed those at the end of WW2. In fact this chart only shows government debt (orange), in truth when you add corporate and all other forms of private debt, you get a figure currently in excess of 700% of GDP. People believe inflation is the problem, they don't understand that in most of the world it is a tool for writing down debt. This was also the case in the US after WW2. How do you write down debt measured against a country's productive output? Well, the easiest way is to increase GDP, but because in reality growth is limited (in some cases almost zero), it's easiest to do this by increasing the nominal value of GDP by ramping up inflation: Nominal GDP = Real GDP * inflation factor So by increasing inflation we increase GDP nominally and we decrease our debt with respect to productivity. So what does this have to do with the chart? Look what happened after WW2, when bond yields bottomed and debt-to-GDP peaked. These two reversed over the next 40 years until 1980, when they reversed again. Look what happened to the long-term inflation in that same 1945 to 1980 period: ignoring the many short-term spikes (known as surprise inflation), the curve slopes exponentially upwards, gently at first until culminating in the inflationary spial of the late 1970s. This same process is beginning again. We will see many short-term inflation spikes in the coming years (surprise inflation) but they will mask an underlying increase in long-term inflation. What does this mean? It means your savings will be wiped out with respect to purchasing power. It means diversify into bitcoin and other dead (non-productivity related) assets over the coming decade and decouple from the fiat. The same principle applies to Eurozone and other so-called developed countries with excessive debt-to-gdp ratios. Further reading: St. Louis Fed blog entry "Inflation and the Real Value of Debt: A Double-edged Sword" Russell Napier interview "We Will See the Return of Capital Investment on a Massive Scale" The truth is wealth is being transferred from the creditors, i.e. the citizen, to pay down government debt: as your savings lose purchasing power, the value of debt also vanishes. This is really why we say inflation is a tax!
TVC:US10Y
by cuibono
7
$SPY - Double Top - Great Reset - Stock Crash Ending 2030$SPY is going for a double top before crashing down to low 200's in the "Great Reset" lasting to 2030. Much like China's "Great Leap Forward" which was one of the largest disasters in history, after which a huge economic advancement was made for several decades. Following the "Great Reset" the United States will enter a period of massive prosperity where conservatism will reign. During this period, the United States will maintain supremacy of the global economy till the year 2100.
AMEX:SPYShort
by motionrelative
Great reset Crisis (prediction from 8/2021)Just a prediction from my crystal ball. I published this chart in august 2021, but it was deleted, because it was not in english. My prediction for ATH was really close. I was expecting it in middle December about value 5000. Sp500 hit it on 4th of January at about 4810. My perdition for new Low is at Top values from past crisis. Possibly hit in 2023 or beginning of 2024. I do not expect new ATH till 2030. Let see if this crisis will happen and how big it will be.
SP:SPX
by Somtoja
*DOOMSIE ACTIVATED* -- Road to THE GREAT RESETNearly SIX months ago, in Jan. 2022, I called out the Doomsie - OmniREKT chart. Bitcoin was at a healthy price of $40.6k per coin!! But now, six months later I can tell you that DOOMSIE HAS BEEN ACTIVATED!!! As you're all aware, I'm The Culture's Economist and have been keeping my ears to the streets. These inflationary pressures across all goods and services, coupled with what we're seeing in wars, energy markets (oil/NGAS), and actions currently being taken by the Federal Reserve on interest rates....The next few months and year(s) may look CRAZY. Stay prepped bc DOOMSIE is awake... Scary hours. Same formula...Buy low, sell high, surf the wave. Godspeed Ri$ktakers!!! P.S. Share this with a friend asap!!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by risktrader95
1
Bitcoin, Triangles, a flagpole, and Stock to flowTLDR Don't overthink things. Stock to flow gives you a average price to target, and triangles are easy to spot and trade for targeting. Until the ascending triangle continuation pattern (on a flagpole) is negated I remain bullish. Introduction One of the most important things I have picked up on my relatively short trading career (about 5 years) is to have faith in the long term trading patterns. Long term trading patterns can help calm your mind and help you 360 degree set a trade with entries and stops and take profits that you can just fire and forget until your alerts tell you have taken profit or been stopped out. Due to the learning curve a lot of my technical analysis was better than my ability to hold a trade through without removing my stops, taking profits early, adding to my position when I should have been closing, so forth and so on. So this post will deal with the humble triangle Analysis The current patterns of interest are the purple symmetrical triangle which is occurring at the support of the orange ascending triangle. Triangles in themselves are one of the easiest patterns to recognize but some of the worst when it comes to full performance to target, throwbacks, and fakeouts. So, in general, the larger the pattern, the better, the more divergences you have to back up your bullish or bearish bias the better, and the clearer the fundamental case, the better. To back up our humble triangle we have hidden bullish divergence on the Stochastic and the RSI. Very simple and powerful indicators when used on the weekly timeframe to verify patterns. To further support our bullish bias is the stock to flow, which has acted as a leading indicator for bitcoins average price for the whole time the indicator has been in play after its creation. Targeting There are several ways to do target setting on a triangle. The main one would be to take the height of the uptrend, clone it, then move it to the point of break out. Now, with triangles being one of the worst with reaching full target that is perhaps not the best way to go about things unless you are very good with training your stops. As the chart below shows with the blue triangle, taking a high and low fib retracement and looking at the positive extensions can do a fairly good job of predicting local highs. Both the 1.414 and 1.618 were areas where price retraced. Going forward off of that draw, a pause at the 2 and 2.618 levels would be very predictable, reliable and technical. The chart below shows two different set of fibs. The bold black fibs are drawn off the ascending triangle and the dark purple fibs are based off of a fib extension treating the move as a flagpole and continuation pattern, like an Elliot wave 1 and 2. Where it appears both fibs are in agreement is an area we would suspect to see a stall with a future continuation pattern to develop. Fundamental Analysis This is a hypothesis I don't have time to fully flesh out here, but for a long time people have been hoping for rotation. A common rotation people hope to play is the roation out of equities into commodities. That was a good play in the early 2000 and many people are hoping for it to be a good play again. Now, I am hoping for a great rotation this time around out of equites and into crypto instead of commodities. And I think the charts support my notion of money rotating out of equities into crypto. Conclusion The stops are easy enough to set for even a new trader that has swung by investopedia.com or Bulkowski's thepatternsite.com and read the basic articles on triangles and flagpoles. The rotation thesis is likewise easy to understand, even if you don't agree with it, as is the concept behind the stock to flow model, which I did not dive into. Until the ascending triangle continuation pattern (on a flagpole) is negated I remain bullish.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by This_Guhy
5
Battleplan: 4 Month look at Gold versus the NDX suggest rotationIt is always good to have a plan. Even better if you have a way to stick to it. Nasdaq has taken quite a beating and people who are worried about inflation, stagflation, recession and depression want to know what to do. Well, I can't give financial advice to others, but I can plan for myself. Gold hasn't moved a lot and that has some people concerned. I think the move is just beginning and a look at higher time frames will show that. Simple candlestick analysis on the Gold/Nasdaq pair shows that we closed the 4 month period with a banger with the candle engulfing two whole periods and almost a third. This is a very strong indicator that the trend has shifted and resembles the trend shift in late 2000. From 2000 to 2008 gold was the clear outperformer with an initial impuse then a multi-year cup and handle formation taking the pair to a high in late 2008/early 2009. From there a few years of sideways topping action and then the price action shows rotation out of gold into the Nasdaq. Gold/NDX Indicators The Pair price action has dropped way below the Keltner and Gaussian chanel and I have been waiting for a sign that shows the momentum has shifted and the candle stick analysis suggests. The chart below details the bullishness I see and I won't repeat myself here. I do expect another multi-year consolidation pattern on the pair but it is still much to early to tell what to expect. I do expect a couple of periods of impulse to the bottom of the gaussian channel. My strategy A look at this chart suggest that a BTFD strategy will work so long as traders and investors switch the dip they are buying from equities into gold or other miners. I generally expect gold to run first, then silver. A look back from 2000 to 2010 does seem to show a simple strategy on this weekly chart does seem to be to buy every breakout of multi-month or multi-year resistance or to simply accumulate at the lows of the Keltner channel and certainly buy the Gaussian channel. Based on that I will be looking for the gold price to get above the resistance charted below. Failure to get above that trendline would be a theory failure, meaning that rather than gold and Nasdaq going separate directions for a while then gold outperforming as they both tend upwards that Gold would merely be going down less than the Nasdaq. In that case I will just wait for cheaper prices.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by This_Guhy
5
Ethereum's bull trap appear to be performingThe main chart says a lot. My main additional comment would be that many crypto traders spend a lot of time looking at the log chart for some very good reasons. But from time to time it is useful to put things on the standard settings to see if we have missed anything. Every single point of the points I have detailed is very bearish by itself. Taken as a whole the picture looks worse and worse for holders and bullish traders. The chart below shows some simple Elliot Wave analysis and it does seem that the price action is at point B and there is going to be a devastating C wave soon. While I have put the main chart on the standard scale I would be doing log fib targeting, but that will be a different post. forextraininggroup.com A closer look at some indicators shows that there is some hidden bearish divergence on the MACD histogram. Divergences in general help suggest that macd crosses will be sustained with further price action and hidden divergences specifically suggest that a trend will continue. In this case, we will get a lower low. The VPVR shows where we could expect price action to move quickly (low volume nodes) and where it may stall (high volume nodes). What I am doing With the bull trap apparently in on Ethereum my personal strategy has to change. While I do think there are going to be some final upside performers in this market my general bias is going to be looking for coins to short for the next couple of years, and I am going to be doing that by looking at the coin/btc pair or the coin/eth pair For example, ethusd looks bad, and xrpusd looks bad to me, and when I look at XRPETH, XRP looks like it will fall out of a descending triangle against eth. So I am going to short XPRUSD until XPRETH makes target. I could put a short on xrpeth, but since I see both moving to the downside I don't see the point.
COINBASE:ETHUSDShort
by This_Guhy
1
Looking for a bull trap on NASDAQ/NDX/QQQ futuresPretty simple conceptually. First is the fundamental charting on the Nasdaq futures. Without a doubt the blue support line did its job very well until if failed in spectacular manner. Basic charting will have analysts looking for this trendline to act as resistance. We have a lot of global instability between sanctions, rising interest rates, gold and silver completing decades longs bullish patterns that could be triggering all times high very shorty. Talks about quantitative tightening are happening again. Comparing and contrasting the bearish case is the bullish case, and that is the fact that price has caught the lower limit of the gaussian channel and appears to be finding support there. Without a doubt, people looking for long term bounces have ben justified in buying the guassian channel midline or lower limit for a long time. So the question is what will matter more, the global financial situation or buyer absolutely commuted to BTFD? I have rotated out of the normal equities market and into those tied to commodities. I think that is a safe bet based on this draw of the Silver/NDX
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by This_Guhy
The Great Reset Ladies and gentlemen, we are now approaching the end of a century of civilization since the Great Depression of 1930. In the cycle of order and chaos, nothing is permanent. At the time of transition from the Old Age to the next world, the reset of the existing civilization system is an inevitable part. In the process, the collapse of the financial system, wars and pandemics are planned. As for what will happen in the near future, approximately 83% of the Dow will evaporate in a three-year period. There will also be a significant population decline of 50-70%, which will occur in Europe, the United States and some countries in Asia. The collapse of the capitalist market will result in a shift of power between countries, and a new world-leading power will emerge. We need to accept the forces and phenomena leading this as a global paradigm flow, not as a distinction between good and evil. Therefore, we must strive to survive in the midst of crisis in our own way as individuals and businesses, rather than relying on solutions and salvation at the national level. We are not sure whether the end of change will be the utopia we want or the dystopian world. What is clear is that a transitional stage of change will accompany the resettlement of civilization. God bless you all who stay awake at all times. God bless Korea.
TVC:DJI
by Spearman-Chuck
4
The "CRAZIEST" Crypto Coincidence EVER! - XRP/USDFor the record, I am not a lunatic but rather an unconventional sort of outlier-type of thinker. What can I say... other than that I can not help myself from doing so 😁 From current book titles of "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order" to symmetrical price patterns, to brief excursions into some possible contrasts from ancient history with today. Heck! Who knows what's coming next in the world. It's becoming weirder by the day - or so it seems.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSD
by tradesetups
5
BTCUSD: High Chance to revisits the 200 week SMA before new ATH.BTCUSD just had a new week and I wanted to get the data on the close on both the On Balance Volume and combine it with the MACD. I will link just a couple of ideas to supplement this idea so it isn't to repetitive. Each idea covers a different set of indicators and guess what? All bearish. A review of my post history will show I have not vacilated between bearish and bullish over this time last month. Even when I called for a uptrend I called it a bull trap and that is exactly what it was. I have been watching the On Balance Volume with EMAS for a couple of weeks now. For some background information, it can be a bit hard to to OBV analysis on crypto because often the supply is constantly increasing and in other cases, supply will be burned. This can confound peak to peak or trough to trough analysis looking for divergences and is one reason why I missed a fair bit of this uptrend. But what doesn't really change is the OBV EMA crosses. If the 10 and 20 OBV EMAs cross that means there has been some change in selling or buying pressure. Not shown is the third EMA which I usually program to 100. There are also times I use a 25-50-75 and that can signal a major change in trend is coming. It is not a signal for people that want to snipe or scalp, but when the 25 OBV EMA crosses the 50 a big move will be incoming, especially on a timeframe like the weekly. You just have to wait for the price action to coil up and then release its tension. I wish I learned this earlier. I shall not explain the MACD because it is a more understood indicator. And I don't think it means too much that the OBV EMAs and MACD cross didn't happen exactly on the same candle. Now to discuss the 200 week... Not because it is so esoteric but because of the implications. The 200w has marked the bottom of ever bear market we have the available data for on the BLX chart. This has an implication that most don't want to consider no matter how technical the move is: BTCUSD will have to retest its previous All Time High. Even worse to consider is the 200w fails as support, but that is something to consider in due time. s3.tradingview.com The all time high of 2013 was retested but the high of 2014 was not. If the high of 2017 is retested we may have a scenario where every other ATH of bitcoin needs to be retested, or some other pattern as may develop. This does not inform any single trade between here and the 200w. There should be a lot of relief rallies or suckers rallies or bull traps between were and there. But historically it seems clear that after a powerful impulse on the weekly timeframe a bearish MACD cross and a cross of the 10 and 20 OBV signals a bear market. There is a chance that somehow and some way even though the MACD signals a major change in momentum that the bulls will somehow clutch and the buying will pick up. But I don't see a reason that would happen. If that happens I put this bearish sentiment on hold.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
9