Greece
National Bank of Greece (NBG) - Comprehensive Analysis
In one week from today, the annual general meeting of the shareholders of the National Bank of Greece (NBG) will convene, where, among other matters, they will decide on the distribution of a dividend for the first time in nearly 15 years, amounting to €0.37 (€0.36 net).
NBG is currently attracting investment interest for two main reasons:
Dividend Distribution: Investors are buying the stock to ensure they receive the dividend.
Upcoming Privatization: The privatization is scheduled for the fall.
There is a belief that the stock will recover from the dividend cut-off, as the placement for the remaining 18.39% held by the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund (HFSF) will not take place below €8.
This is considered a safe bet, especially as recent analyses predict the stock price could rise even above €10.
Axia: Raises the target price for the stock to €10.50 from €8.80 previously.
UBS: Boosts the target price to €11.
The analysis of technical indicators and financial data of the National Bank of Greece presents a positive outlook for the current and future trajectory of the stock.
Technical Analysis
Price:
The current price is €8.186. The price has broken above the Fibonacci 0.618 level at €8.124, indicating upward momentum.
Moving Averages (EMA):
EMA 20: €7.967
EMA 50: €7.962
EMA 100: €7.912
EMA 200: €7.653
EMA 20 (€7.968): The price is above the 20-day EMA, indicating short-term upward momentum.
EMA 50 (€7.962): The price is above the 50-day EMA, indicating medium-term upward momentum.
EMA 100 (€7.912): The price is above the 100-day EMA, indicating long-term upward momentum.
EMA 200 (€7.653): The price is above the 200-day EMA, indicating strong overall upward momentum.
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
RSI (14): 64.14, indicating that the stock is in the bullish zone but not yet overbought.
MACD:
Histogram: 0.0244 (positive, indicating upward momentum)
MACD: 0.0325 (MACD line is above the signal line, indicating an upward trend)
Signal: 0.0080
Pivot Points
Support Levels:
S1: €7.778
S2: €7.610
S3: €7.464
Resistance Levels:
R1: €8.128
R2: €8.270
R3: €8.418
Central Pivot Point:
P: €7.940
The price is above the central pivot point (P: €7.940), indicating an upward trend. The price is approaching the first resistance level (R1: €8.128) and has the potential to test higher resistance levels (R2: €8.270 and R3: €8.418).
Conclusion Pivot Points:
Upward Trend: The current price is above the central pivot point, indicating an upward trend in the market.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Immediate support at €7.778 (S1), with further support at €7.610 (S2) and €7.464 (S3) if the price falls.
Immediate resistance at €8.128 (R1), with further resistance at €8.270 (R2) and €8.418 (R3) if the price continues to rise.
Performance Metrics:
1 week: +3.65%
1 month: +4.31%
3 months: +16.47%
6 months: +18.12%
Year to date: +30.17%
1 year: +32.06%
Positive returns for all periods (1 week, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, year to date, and 1 year) indicate a continuous and steady upward trajectory of the stock. The significant return over the past year (+32.06%) strengthens confidence in its bullish outlook.
Overall Assessment:
Based on the updated technical indicators, the stock of the National Bank of Greece continues to exhibit strong upward momentum.
Specifically:
The stock prices are above all significant moving averages (EMA 20, 50, 100, and 200), indicating a stable upward trend in the short-term, medium-term, and long-term horizons.
The RSI is in a healthy bullish zone (63.90), suggesting that the stock is not overbought and has room for further growth.
The positive MACD histogram and the fact that the MACD line is above the signal line reinforce the stock's bullish outlook.
Conclusion:
The National Bank of Greece appears to be in a solid upward trend based on both technical indicators and financial results. Investors may consider that the stock still has room for growth; however, they should closely monitor technical indicators and financial results to adjust their investment strategies accordingly.
Do it like GreeceStudy the greek economy & politics from the period 1990-2012 and you might find a lot of similarities with that is currently happening in the US. Greece experienced a credit boom from 1990-2008, people however were living above their means. We faced the biggest bubble in Greece's economic history during the 1999 when everybody was playing the stock market! and i mean everybody! i remember my father telling me that the biggest sign he saw that the bubble was about to pop was when his mother in law (late 99) came and told him that she wanted to play the stock market as well! When he asked her why she replied: because the other granny across the street is making money... That was the sing! who the hell was left to buy????
Then the bubble popped together with the .com bubble but people were not selling in the contrary in 2003 they start borrowing and selling their houses,farms whatever they had and played all in! because in their mind and in the media that was the bottom! The ultimate buy the dip!!!then we had the golden age of modern Greece! Various outstanding sports events wins! like the Euro 2004, beating the US Basketball Team, and the cherry on top hosting the Olympic Games of 2004, oh boy euphoria was back in the game and this time for good! We were borrowing more and more money to live a life we could not support! our debt got bigger and bigger but when the 08 housing market popped it was time for us to pay our debts!
You know what happened next! check the graph here (www.capital.gr) but only till 2012 because then we had to recapitalize our banks 4 times so the graph is not representative of the whole market. From a political perspective the 2 biggest political parties left and right had to form a government together in order go through this tough period. Our debt was restructured and taxation went sky high! especially for the middle class who paid the majority of the bill!
How are things now? well we sold almost all our assets to foreign investors/countries for peanuts! we got used after 10 years to a -50% income and prices are something like 100%-200% higher than 2000...
@ECB - We need help! #GR10Y #Greece #ECBDear Mrs Lagarde,
please assign an employee and buy all bonds from Greece.
The divergence must be addressed immediately before the end of the month.
Please also get the state security to find out who is selling their bonds here.
So it does not go on, that here insiders simply sell off before the outstanding bonds are converted into 100 year permanent bonds.
Something like in April 20 must not happened again.
With kind regards
Your personal supervisor
Stefan Bode
Greece 10-year bond nearing ALL-TIME lowsReally, really remarkable to see this.
Remember the Greek/eurozone debt crisis? That's what the big spike is. Now, here we are. Greek bonds are nearing their lowest levels ever.
The only explanation is that people are seeking the safest form of assets in government bonds and Central Banks are becoming more helpful managing debt and supporting their countries.
I share this as an observation that is shaping the world and the economy picture. It also is potentially showing the strength of the Eurozone and the way the countries are coming together. Pay attention to the EURUSD or European assets in these countries. If they are indeed balancing their budget, have their fiscal house in order, and the central banks are willing to support them, Europe could be ready for some more strength.
#GR10Y - #ECB is BANKRUPT Part 1 #Greece #EURUSD @lagarde @ecbIn the short term, the ECB is still holding out against the capital flight from Greek government bonds, but it is powerless against the capital flight out of the euro.
The ECB's new bazooka won't help, Mrs Lagarde.
As you can see in the chart, the candy has been sucked and the trader world can see that too.
Best regards from Hannover (Lower Saxony)
Stefan Bode
#GR10Y - #ECB is BANKRUPT Part 1 #Greece #EURUSD @lagarde @ecb
Gain on GREK's uptrendSince the last few months, powered by the new elected government in Greece, GREK has been recovering. This recovery has to do with greater expectations investors have from the new government. GREK shows a clearly established upternd. A reasonable strategy would be to wait until the current swing is over, reaching the support and then to follow the uptrend.
GREK: Greece ETF, potential for +20% profit.GREK has broken upwards in late May following a Golden Cross formation in late April. The last 3 times a Golden Cross took place the ETF rose (on the cross date) by +8.40% once and roughly over +30% twice. Currently it is already up by +8.40% from the Golden Cross occurrence so if it starts breaking higher, we have a confirmation for an additional +20% rise, which puts the upside target at 11.45.
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GrreceCan be described as a bag full of shit, but has been steadily advancing the past months, with elections coming soon...
one of the most bombed out market it as spent 30 months building a long bottom between 0.550-1.074
If the new democracy is elected and say the right words investment could return driving the market higher.
On the other hand this is greece so not expecting much a pull back to support to 90 with a nice cup handle would ideal to jump in with a small position probably sell some at 1,076 which would be a double top.. but if it breaks through to the other side.. them me and Jim Morrisson will be happy-
Long for a 10% gain possibly
Long NBGIFStory : National Bank of Greece announced a Q2 net loss a couple of days ago which sunk it's share price to an almost all time low - with not much downside left (technically), continued reduction of the bad loans in it's books and a perceived improvement in alignment of Greek policies to the EU expectations a bullish case is not hard to build. Furthermore, technicals confirm a good entry level for this trade.
Entry Price : USD 2.15
Stop Loss : USD 1.49 (-31%)
Take Profit : USD 3.5 (+0.62%)
Expected Duration : 1-3 months
GREK LONG ON THIS BAD BOYGet ready ladies and gentlemen, this bad boy is almost at its support, get in set a stop loss just beneath its support line and, it should bounce off. The open interest for jan 20s on this b*tch also looks hella dope. Lets make some f*ucking money :) (can you swear on this site? I dont really want to censor myself) anyways have a great day fellow traders!
Are Brexit fears oversold?Obviously, being smart, sane, savvy and logical traders, we all recognise that there is a monstrous Godzilla formation looming over cable right now. I don't mean some obscure Japanese candlestick formation, but the actual Godzilla, poised to run rampant and squash the UK into smithereens if it votes leave in June.
I would contend that the opposite may be the case.
When the ever entertaining Boris Johnson came out as pro Brexit, there was a mini tumble in cable. Journalists perhaps not that au fait with markets warned that our friend Godzilla was stretching and limbering up for action. Really, it wasn't such a big deal.
The fact is that Boris was expected by many to support the Government line. His declaration was seen by many as a politically motivated direct challenge to Cameron, and call to arms in the race to replace him.
New Labour were able to rule untroubled by the Tories for so long due to the Tories poisonous split over Europe. Over time, Cameron has managed to unite the party, but as the vote runs nearer, its becoming more apparent that the party could get torn apart once again. Boris' decision was the equivalent of setting fire to a bridge, and undermining the Prime Minister very publicly.
As seen with Blair and Brown, handovers can be troublesome affairs and breed instability and uncertainty over policy which genuinely unsettle markets.
The fact that we all need to remember is that markets price information in. People will be watching polls, betting markets, political declarations, corporate decision making and the like for inklings into how the vote will go. Investors and traders will respond to this data long in advance and prepare themselves accordingly.
There will not be a situation where a vote is made and then at 4am when the results are announced, the world jumps up and sells cable.
There may be a short term dip lower, but I suspect that this is an opportunity to get long.
Chart wise, as you can see here from the weekly GBP/USD chart, there is a multi year down trend which at present is running in tandem with the 50W SMA lower. RSE looks uninspiring and set to drift along in the lower half of the range. Slow stochastics have shown an interesting bit of widening which are worth watching. It could be an indication of a push higher if continued, but equally a further cross is an indication of continuation.
The obvious thought is that there is tough resistance ahead and all the fundamental focus is on downside risks. However, as mentioned in my other post, Grexit is a very real possibility this summer , and the issue could overshadow the entire Brexit scenario.
Throughout the ever lasting eurozone debt crisis, the UK and sterling has offered investors a bit of safe haven effect. Should the UK look likely vote to leave we could see a dip to lows around 1.38 (approx), the long term low where I can imagine a boat load of orders sit, before investors pile in on the bid as the Greek situation causes systemic financial instability.... again.
SHS on Eurostoxx 50 As we can see Eurostoxx50 is making a S-H-S on 1 day time frame. This figure will end in same date that Brexit vote (aprox.) also we have the problem of Greece in June
Fakey Breaky...what?The Euro is back under major resistance...was this a fake break out? We are watching closely and looking for opportunities to the short side. if the bulls rally and take out the most recent highs then the squeeze will be on and Euro bears will be jumping off the ship. We want to see a test of the major resistance and sellers to step in. NO TRIGGER, NO TRADE!
Is about to test 1.1 from below - Resistance aheadTowards tomorrow's Greek vote, $EURUSD is about to test 1.1 which is now resistance.
The bearish scenario here is that $EURUSD will be blocked by 1.1 and the fast daily SMA line and continue lower to complete the bullish Gartley.
The bullish move, in case of a breakout, is limited with the 50 SMA line and the downtrend line not to far above the resistance.
SELL EURUSDBreak followed by ABCD correction and respecting the broken
trend line would present a sell opportunity.
Target 1 – 1.0880
Target 2 – lower band of the triangle
Stop Loss -above last high created on H1
EUR/USDBEARS!!! let the siege begin, 1.10429 has been broken and re-tested for a real move down south.Visually you can see my targets, those are logical points in market where the market has been before: individuals and institutions will be looking to push the market to those level before anything else. As you know humans are repetitive that's why the market usually repeats its self over and over again.
Why isn't the Euro weaker?It could be said that it is slightly strange that the Euro isn't weaker. As of writing, EURUSD is trading at 1.1040 after seeing lows of 1.0458 back in February 2015. From March last year until February this year, EURUSD was in a very steep downtrend with a range of ~3500 pips. Since then, the pair has remained relatively stagnant, after seeing a bounce off of the 1.0460 level.
With the Greek situation weighing and another round of Quantitative Easing, you probably would have thought that the Euro would have been much weaker. However that is not the case, evidently. We have 3 fundamental beliefs with regards to this.
1) The market has been poised for a US rate hike for a while. However, to justify a rate hike, consistently strong data has to be printed, but the US has not been able to achieve this as of yet. Combined with this, short term rate differentials would in fact suggest that EURUSD should be above current levels, as well as inflation expectations. These correlations are slightly weak, however.
2) Uncertainty in Greece is causing indecisiveness. Investors do not actually know how Greece will leave the Eurozone, as it has never been done before and there is no real procedure for a country to leave. On the flip side, Tsipras has suggested an extra EUR 60bn to be provided to Greece for the next 3 years. This seems like it would not solve the underlying problem and merely extend the time it takes to pay their creditors. Investors are aware of this. This uncertainty could be causing the lack of Euro weakness. If and when a deal is reached, a rally and fade could most probably occur (i.e a spike in price and then a fall). A good quote for why this situation is taking so long to resolve: 'if you owe the bank £500 it's your problem; if you owe the bank £5m it's their problem.'
3) Many people believed that the Eurozone would be like Japan in terms of reintroducing QE (deflation and QE for a long period of time). However, investors began unwinding short positions when they saw that Eurozone data was actually improving post-QE introduction. This lead to an increase in the price of the Euro which is still having an effect today.
Please add comments. If you agree or disagree, I'd really like to hear it.
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$EURUSD - Forget the short term. #Greece WHO?? Long term view!Fundamental have not changed long term.
Don't forget a little thing called QE. Sept 2016!
We started off last month with weak US data but we are slowing see an uptick as predicted.
Personal spending will start rebounding in the next few months which will put the pressure to raise rates.
Job creation should also see an uptick which will lend to September rate hikes.
The human physiological of the market will start pricing in hikes no matter what. As FED is very mums to the when it will actually happen.
Currently the Fed is priced in too Dovish.
Watch for clues in the data and HOLD on for the ride and forget the short term noise!
Dollar Index H&SThe H&S is currently in play an the USD is holding on above neckline and we will not rule out a retest of that neck line for a well defined entry and risk. Target is very much of higher number at 11950 or even higher depending on how the Europe act with Greece.
Stay safe
Gold Trades Lower on Hopium, Dollar Gains One PercentGo long on "optimism"
Traders are more “optimistic” in that everything will work out – from rate hikes to Greece – and risk continues to bid higher on the news, or no news as it were.
Greece is said to be saved after Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras gave into the troika and EU on a bailout extension. The game theorists got.. played?
However, the International Monetary Fund managing director, Christine Lagarde, said there was still a lot of work to be done. Perhaps the greatest feat is to propose the bailout extension to Greek lawmakers, which many believe will shoot it down (i.e. progress towards no progress).
Blowhards out of the Fed continue to spew rate hike rhetoric as if they have a shred of credibility anymore. How many years has the Federal Reserve boasted about a strengthening economy and the path towards monetary normalcy? It can be described – at worst – as verbal diarrhea.
Today, Fed Governor Jerome Powell said not only will there be one rate hike but there will be two! Keep in mind, myself and my colleagues have been voicing the Fed’s inability to raise rates for a very long time. We were front-runners, as it were, long before mainstream analysts and economists began to jump on the no hike bandwagon.
Nevertheless, in volume-less markets, hopium went bid pushing the dollar up over one percent on the day right as the Fed Governor said there was stability in the dollar.
The real gem came when Powell said there were no asset bubbles, but that is expected. The Fed had absolutely no clue the Great Recession was about to grip the world. Even several months into the recession, Ben “there’s no housing bubble” Bernanke thought the growth trajectory would continue upwards.
If the market would juxtapose Powell’s comments with Fed Chair Yellen’s post-FOMC comments, there would be a crystal clear imagine of confusion. Yellen bluntly stated that both economic and inflationary data DID NOT meet requirements for a rate hike and that further improvement would be needed.
After trading slightly above $1,200 per toz., gold has retracted quite quickly, currently trading at $1,177.90. Technically, price action could find support within these levels, but that largely depends on the dollar’s performance and rather or not the optimistic perception continues to go bid.
Gold remains in the large trading range and has no real direction. If prices continue to breakdown, expect the yellow metal to seek out trend support at $1,168 with deeper support at $1,152.
Upside potential could be capped at $1,188/92 before a retest of $1,200 can happen.
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EURUSD Struggling at Major Resistance ConfluenceEURUSD appears to be failing below a critical resistance zone which stretches between 1.1384 - 1.1442. 1.1384 is yesterday's high and coincides with the long term descending trendline connecting the July, September and December swing highs. 1.442 was the highest daily close in the Head and Shoulders pattern from 3 weeks ago.
We have entered short at 1.1302 with a hundred pip stop just above yesterday's high/major trendline resistance. We are once again targeting the multi-year low's and continuation (though we've been frequently disappointed of late!).
