NASDAQ: FEAR > (GREED + HOPE) ==> CORRECTION.In this screencast I set out why I think the NASDAQ is in deep trouble and uncertainty. This is truly beyond technical and fundamental analysis.
I'm looking into the psychology of markets. There is a whole lot to fear in this market. Reality is catching up on fantasy. It's been a long lovely dream and the big boys have made their killing. They will not want this to turn into a nightmare!
I explore patterns that today, are pretty similar to 2007-ish
I show why I think the market is exhausting. I say that quite possibly fear may outweigh greed and hope.
So the equation in a superheated bull market is:
FEAR > (GREED + HOPE) ==> CORRECTION.
DISCLAIMERS: This is speculative opinion only. That the post is listed as short is only an indication of probability estimate for the south. It is not intended to cause fear or to advise people on making financial decisions. Your decisions are your own as well as the risks you accept. If you lose out on profits or otherwise lose money, kindly sue yourself!
Greed
DJI update: fake news and almost free money. The DJI is approaching an all time high of about 278400. This market has become pretty volatile mostly at 30 - 50 minute charts.
Although the DJI is pushing north madly, it is a market that is being moth eaten. It's instability is likened to a Jenga tower. The instability is also seen in trend switches down to the 5 minute level.
What do these 32 companies and unborn babies have in common?They didn’t pay income taxes in 2018. In fact, these 32 companies were paid by the United States government $10,531,480,000 to operate their businesses. The unborn babies were paid $0. That is a $10.53 billion dollar tax refund with your money. Your tax dollars were collected by the IRS and then given to these 32 companies. Each one of these companies was profitable in 2018, yet American tax dollars were given to them to add to their profit margins. The average CEO total compensation of these 32 companies in 2018 was $14,212,618. The average employee pay at these companies was $89,594. CEO hourly rate works out to be $6,833. Employee hourly was $43. These CEO’s believe their value is 170.65 times greater than the average employee. Each of these CEO’s would need to work 16.15 total hours to make your annual salary. They need to work 2 days when you need to work for an entire year. If you make $20 per hour at one of these companies the CEO would need to work 6.09 hours or an average Friday, to make your annual salary. Welcome to our American dream.
Who is the winner of the Greediest Pig Award you ask? Leslie Moonves of CBS. He is no longer the CEO but was paid $46,416,750 in total compensation in 2018. Leslie’s employees were paid the least on the list as well at $60,000 per year. Every 2.69 hours Leslie worked he earned the average annual salary of his employees. He made your annual salary during a round of golf on Friday when he left early. Leslie believes he is 773.6 times more valuable to CBS than his employees. As opposed to paying taxes like every American is required to do, Leslie was able to obtain $358,000,000 from Uncle Sam and add it to his profit margins.
We, the 99% put these CEO’s in positions of power by buying their products, we can also remove them. I am staging a boycott of every company listed in this document. I will never spend a single penny on their products again. I would never work for any of them either. Our votes matter less in general elections than super delegates. The true power we hold is where we decide to spend our money. These 32 companies and CEO’s are shitting on you; let’s return the favor and stop giving them money.
But Johnny, they are paying what the law requires them to pay! That is correct; none of these companies are doing anything illegal via taxation. However, what is missing from that argument is how much they spend on political donations and lobbyist. Our 1% friends pay money to make the laws benefit the 1%. Our government is corrupted by money, it has been that way for my entire life.
When I invested in real estate, I learned about our tax code. Businesses can write off most expenses prior to paying taxes. Individuals are required to pay taxes before they get their paycheck. I understand the need to help businesses grow via less tax liabilities. However, these 32 companies are all profitable and pay their executives disgusting amounts of money. Thanks to our current tax code some of their profits came from your bank account whether you like it or not.
I’ve done some research on other countries and found the Scandinavian countries are continuously rated as the happiest places on earth. I had to figure why they are so happy. A few things Norway does better. Their minimum wage is nearly $42,000 per year. Their government balances its budget every year with an oil fund worth nearly $1 trillion which the 5.5 million citizens own. Every employee is paid above a living wage. They work 30-37 hours per week. Free higher education and health care. The government is run like a private company with the public interest being a priority. It is one of the safest places on earth. Think about it, people are paid well so they don’t have to resort to crime to feed their family. They are not socialist they are democratic. The greedy wage gap is much more balanced. The corruption relationship between government and businesses is nonexistent in Norway. Their government truly cares about the population not just 1% of it. I will be traveling to Norway next year to see for myself why they are so happy, this might be a one-way ticket.
But, but, but they pay higher taxes! Thanks again little Billy, you are correct. Norway has higher taxes. But ask yourself, does it sound worth it compared to the US?
The people listed in this document are directly responsible for financial inequality in our country. They pay themselves excessive salaries and siphon public tax dollars to add to their profit margins. Our politicians are helping this disgusting greed take place. In fact, our politicians are becoming wealthy with this process. Members of the US congress make $174,000 per year not to mention the millions in political donations. I think our politicians should get paid the federal minimum wage then it might increase. Like and share if you agree our politicians are paid too much for the job they are doing for all Americans.
If you are a member of the 1% and happen to read this article, be a good human and distribute the wealth. I am a firm believer in what goes around comes around. The more you invest in your employees the more gains you will see. Or you can just follow the trend of your rich cronies and continue to widen the wage gap. Are you a leader or a follower?
I suggest using the CICO report here on Tradingview. The CICO measures the sum of new money into and out of the markets. Don’t let manipulated emotions from fake headlines run your portfolio, use math. I hope the CICO helps you take your money back from these clowns. We are seeing a breakout of an upward trend on the SPY. It looks like a good time to buy until it isn't. The markets can and will change drastically without notice from our friends. They will panic and take their money out without notice, always be cautious with your money.
The full detailed list of the companies can be found on the link. This post is meant to be informational and I never condone violence. However, let's stop giving them our money. onedrive.live.com
The Death of Current MarketsIt is with a heavy heart that I must announce that the entire current cryptocurrency space is outdated and will ultimately be shorted too zero. What does the big money do when they step into a crypto market? They immediately try to pump and dump, shake out the books, and then they gtfo. We rarely see markets that do this sort of trading outside of Forex, and if you've been paying attention, Forex is about to go out the window. Current currencies are going into crisis mode and it's honestly too late. The greed is immeasurable and now the entire crypto space wreaks of sulfur. Big money is very smart... that's usually why they're big money. They know for a fact that cryptos are a liability and should never be HODLed. We just saw recently a market maker take TRXBTC to 1 Satoshi on Binance, a near instantaneous candle on Kraken went from 12k range to 8k a few days before the recent crash. If you don't think for a second that at the very least, TRXBTC is going back to 1 if not 0 folks, you've already fallen for the long con. Big money only HODLs quality, and they're blatantly telling us, which we can clearly see with they're orders, that they aren't HODLing BTCUSD the same as retail investors. Whales want to dump it as soon as it touches the top of a range... that's not a bright future. When markets expand like crypto did in 2017, the volatility should die down... it's increasing!
I bring all of those issues and points up because if you check the article linked and truly understand the implications of what's about to happen in the very near future, you too would understand what I'm seeing. Everyone's been sold the lie that you should fear the 51% attack, buy unnecessary hardware to "protect" your funds, and A LOT of money was dumped into that FUD. One of the main things of Bitcoin is security. If all of the sudden I'm being told that the safest crypto in the world "isn't safe enough", what am I supposed to think at that point? It gives me a Patriot Act, War on Drugs, and War on Terrorism vibe. Fear is being used to promote control and sell a product. It's that simple.
Now, let's dive into the juiciest part of this expose. The linked article confirms that Google has in fact developed the first functional quantum chip. Let me put this into perspective. A current 51% attack on bitcoin right now would cost millions per hours and would take a good chunk of time. Google's quantum chip on the other hand performed a 10,000 year calculation in 200 seconds barely requiring any power because it's a superconductive chip(very little energy is wasted as heat) so it runs at almost 100% efficiency. A trading algorithm, being backed by this chip, could ultimately perform a 100% attack on any financial market place or product. If it's any form of current money, including crypto, it is no longer safe.
I'm not saying these products can't be profitable currently or 5 years from now, it'll be milked as long as possible, I'm trying to say that you've been warned. We ALL fell for the gimmick; I fell for it. We ALL look stupid; I look stupid. We are ALL being targeted; I'm being targeted. Even if you're being stopped out... you were targeted. I'm enraged, disgusted, and appalled at the levels of greed that have come to be. Cryptocurrency, AS IS, was a great idea and invention, but big money literally turned it into the AntiChrist. No matter how ugly it's actions are... we can't look away, we shower it with admiration, it's the most beautiful trading product next too gold. That's saying that a puff of smoke is now more valuable than an ounce of gold.
I will end this rant with a quote. I'm not religious, but we should ALL pray.
"And I stood upon the sand of the sea, and saw a beast rise up out of the sea, having seven heads and ten horns, and upon his horns ten crowns, and upon his heads the name of blasphemy." - Revelations 13:1
Crypto Fear & Greed Index can tell you when to buy BTCWhy Measure Fear and Greed?
Crypto market behavior is very emotional. People tend to get greedy when the market is rising which results in FOMO (Fear of missing out). Also, people often sell their coins in the irrational reaction of seeing red numbers. With our Fear and Greed Index, we try to save you from your own emotional overreactions. There are two simple assumptions:
Extreme fear can be a sign that investors are too worried. That could be a buying opportunity.
When Investors are getting too greedy, that means the market is due for a correction.
Therefore, alternative.me analyze the current sentiment of the Bitcoin market and crunch the numbers into a simple meter from 0 to 100. Zero means "Extreme Fear", while 100 means "Extreme Greed".
You can find the indicator in TradingView and it is quite amazing what it shows.
In a bull market, it actually shows you great buy opportunities for buying the dips or playing the swings!
Hope you will enjoy it!
If you like this post give us a like also. Thank you!
Volatile premarket + top of trend channel = buy putsI recommend using the Cashflow indicator to see the full market story. When programmed, it shows:
Green = a lot of buying
Yellow = people closing long positions
Red = people shorting the market
Orange = people closing short positions
Grey = market noise
These are my interpretations of the market behavior and not necessarily accurate in times of low volume. I recommend avoiding consolidation days.
Trading Truths - how long to be profitable?Trading is hard work - But no one wants to hear that it is hard work. Everyone wants a short cut. A short cut does not exist. If it did - everyone would use it and the market would cease to exist. Everyone who starts out trading is lured in by the profit potential. You might get lucky and make a quick buck. But over time you soon realize that trading is a job, and a hard one at that. The markets offer the highest paid profession in the world - and it is the hardest profession. There are no set paths, clear schooling or achievements which put you into a position of earning a living.
This is an entirely different world. It is you and the market. You are responsible for the actions you make, and the repercussions or rewards which come with those actions. It takes a lot of time and effort on your part if you truly want to succeed long term in the markets. This does not just mean learning about the markets and how they operate. It also requires skills that no other job does - understanding and working on yourself internally.
Remain Humble - We all know of someone who brags about their position, their entry price or whatever. But there is something they likely do not have.. Profits. Ever wonder why the top traders dont brag or choose to talk about how much they make? Because they are humble. If you do not remain humble when it comes to markets, they will humble you. If you are attached to your Ego, you will fail in the market, without question. The only question is how long will you survive?
How long does it take to be a Profitable Trader? Every beginner wants to know how long it will take before they can make a profit. This is a loaded question - with no answer. I am often asked how long until you knew you had it? Or how long does it take to become a profitable trader? People are confused by my answer when I say "you never have it, or anything." Even wildly profitable traders lose money, sometimes all of their money several times.
Trading is not about getting something, or somewhere. It is a journey, a dance. Do you dance or play the guitar to get to the end of the dance or end of the song? No, otherwise you would play or dance really fast! (Alan Watts). You play to play. You trade because you enjoy the act of trading. In other words the act of doing is the goal, not the end result. The market is a teacher who teaches you about your self. If you chose to ignore it and instead focus on what you want out of it; you probably wont get it. If instead you open yourself up, give in to it and what it is showing you; you just might get what you want.
If you found this helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions.
$14,000 - REJECTION OR BREAKOUT? UNBELIEVABLE MOVE TO HIT BTC!Bitcoin has pierced through every single resistance level without considerable cool down and retracement.
The 0.618/($13,500) retracement level is the last level to be conquered.
If we break through this level then prices like 20,000, 25,000 or even higher are probably due to the fact that the market is in an extreme parabolic phase and does not care for any indicators. The top is indefinite and calling it is unbelievably difficult and extremely risky in these phases..
Resistance is very low above 14,000 and if the major levels such as 6,000 and 10,000 were completely obliterated without question or looking back then the same is very likely for 14,000. It is clear that resistance isn't something that the market realises or acknowledges right now.
FOMO and aggressive whales have bought up the market way further than it needs to be for a sustained run. The current state of the market is unhealthy and could end badly. It is safe to say that the prior bear market exit was healthier and more orderly allowing for the more sustained price action. The Trading View community is full of greed and exuberance. This is quite symbolic of the 2017 bubble before it burst and capitulated over 85%.
The market is dangerous at the minute to say the least. As a result, this may be either one the craziest sell-offs or price surges/parabolas ever in the history of Bitcoin given the price action in the short period of time it has occured.
My thoughts are that we will see one of the craziest sell off's Bitcoin has ever seen and I look for a minimum 40% correction before re-evaluating the state of the market.
Dear Loch Ness Monster, Let me fulfil the 6969 - 69420 Prophecy.It is foretold a sequence of sacred numbers lies in rest as they await realisation...
Internet meme minds will collide as they overhaul the tyranny of a super-serious and totally-not-fraudulent banking cosmos. The people are prophesised to fight back against over-reaching institutional power perpetuating unnecessary war and at it's core, immoral but also unsustainable wealth inequality.
Picture Bitcoin as a successful Pac-Man and the ghosts as Wall Street's GFC inducing suits; nom nom nom.
I like trying my hand at predicting the future and my current narrative places us in a similar position right now to the roaring twenties, which was followed by the great depression. Our WW2 is climate change and our New Deal is the Green New Deal. To keep it short, Bernie Sanders and Franklin D. Roosevelt are strikingly similar.
Anyways, bitcoin's price...
I'm requesting the whale of all whales, Mr. Loch Ness to approve of successful bids from 6800, right up and no further than 6969 before the meme consciousness of the universe allows passage through the final stage of an international economic bubble: gains for days and days until our capitalist structure has the devil demanding perfect balance, as all things should be.
What goes up, must come down.
Our extended time period of Neo-Liberalism, Conservatism and Corporatism is coming to an end and sooner rather than later I believe the general population and younger generations are ready to radically change and build a better, more socialised future because we'll have to if the human race is to survive. Don't forget the chaos around the corner due to climate change as literally 100's of millions of people find themselves seeking refuge as they are displaced from their underwater and uninhabitable-ly hot homes.
I welcome the disasters of global warming because what else could bring everyone together beside such a common threat?
Selling Bitcoin at 69420 for the lols and also so I have capital available to short everything.
FEAR and GREED Cycle in trading & investingTrading definitely complicated and hard phycological activity, everyday every trader on a planet is on the edge of financial collapse. When it comes to the new traders/investors usually falls in FEAR and GREED trap. Try to avoid this cycle, learn Technical analysis and emotion control.
Good luck!
Where we are? Fear And Greed & NVT IndicatorBitcoin is in bullrun, or in bull trap? Everything would look great (except for short-term unsustainable parabolic growth), but ... these two great indicators show great trouble .
The first indicator is the Fear And Greed index . Do you know the Fear And Greed index? If not, google ...
This indicator shows greatly what emotions are in the market.
The second indicator is my favorite NVT (Network to Value).
NVT has an amazing ability to predict crashes even in places where conventional indicators can't predict it.
Both of these indicators show extreme values . They are even the !!highest values in history!! The high values of these indicators have always meant a huge fall ... look at the chart.
Some ideas?
Be cautious with bitcoin...On the 4-hour chart there's a clear bearish divergence forming. While price is rallying higher, the RSI is telling us that the strength of the trend is weakening. This weakening of the trend is confirmed by bitcoins' shrinking volume.
On the daily we can see that bitcoin is dangerously overbought. The RSI is at levels not seen since the 8th of December 2017. What about the daily Ichimoku Cloud? Glad you asked ; ) The cloud that has shown to be good support / resistance is falling out from beneath bitcoins feet.
On the weekly the stochastic RSI is peaking. Waiting to cross over and smack down. Just like a lion waiting for its prey show a sign of weakness.
When greed is high we as traders should be cautious.
Best of luck!
PGrijpink
The old big dividend bait and switch... This company is failing it's customers in multiple ways. ATVI is a mix of two gaming companies that are both far beyond losing touch with it's customers and the gaming industry as a whole. A good gauge on how a certain game company is doing (and the best in my opinion) is by checking their community forums. In this case they are barren and extremely bias, in favor of the company and it's profits. The mods seem dismissal towards players and their problems. I saw this coming and should of posted this months ago when the price was 100% higher.
The only hope for these two companies is to completely restructure it's leadership methodology, business model, and the development of the games them selves.
Good gaming companies are run by gamers not big corporate executives unfortunately.
I suspect a massive to the $60 range then a complete and utter decimation to it's market cap, again..
Why BTC could be going MUCH lower. Part II: Vox populi"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”
Possibly one of the most influential quotes of all time when it comes to investing. While this is necessarily not always the case, Warren Buffet understands that the whole merry-go-round that we call the stock, gold etc. markets are based on one, though far from simple, thing: psychology of the participating individuals.
It is the reason why 90% of all individuals fail in trading as they are lead by emotions and irrational deicisions. The other 10%? They understand the game and simply go against the mass sentiment of the sheep, profiting of off them in the process.
So what is the current sentiment in the crypto sphere?
alternative.me
Well, if we take a look at the crypto fear and greed index we can see that currently greed is in the market with a valuation of 57 (you can look up on what the whole algorithm is based on). If we take the TA approach, we can see that the 60 mark provides a heavy resistance. 56 is the point at which Bitcoin tumbled, broke 6k and capitulated (though if that was the true capitulation remains to be seen).
What does this mean?
Well, firstly, do note that there are times when a greedy overall sentiment can be justified. For example, if Bitcoin made a higher high and established a firm support at a new level that would definitely mean that greed is, at least for the short tem, a justified sentiment. Another example would be Bitcoin decisively breaking the 6k support-now-resistance level as that would essentially signal the start of a new bull market.
But, with that being said, can the greed really be justified in this point in time?
If you look at the TA fundamentals, we are now facing heavy resistance on a weekly time frame with a multitude of indicators:
1. 200 EMA (in red) is holding the price firmly below 4100
2. 20 MA (in black) is falling down like a bomb and though an argument can be made that we broke it, I would like to see a breakout with A LOT of volume. Breaking such significant MA is no small feat and any breakout without volume cant really be taken particularly seriously.
3. RSI on the weekly is 1. overextended and 2. at a super heavy resistance around 43,44
In short, the sentiment is telling us moon while the TA is telling us a completely different story. That would make the current greed sentiment UNJUSTIFIABLE.
I plan to take additional short positions and cant wait for these thing to fall like a rock to at least 200MA. Once there we will evaluate the position and react appropriately.
Stay tuned for Part III of the series, where we will take a look at an indicator with a literally 100% accuracy. Thank you!
P.S. If you like my analysis, please hit a like as otherwise, if no one is reading them there is no point in writing them either.
PSYCH HACK #0004 - understanding luck, chance and riskIn this screencast, I review my ideas on luck, chance and risk.
I do not depend on luck, hope or targets in my trading. This has appeared rather strange to some I've been in contact with recently.
I say that sensible trading for consistent profitability cannot depend on luck. Yes - it involves taking carefully risk-assessed chances and controlling loss.
I assert that luck is not part of my 'equation'.
S&P 500: Panic breaks outThis is a short one. It appears that the SPX spooked itself last night! Well, to be fair it was probably news of the death cross which caught some investors, that was related to some price action.
Markets - at their tips - are ruled by hope, fear and greed. Watch this space. No predictions - as usual. :)