The Symmetrical Triangle: Real Success Rates + Breakout.The Symmetrical Triangle: Real Success Rates + Breakout.
The symmetrical triangle is an important chart pattern in technical analysis, deserving special attention from professional traders.
This formation is characterized by a convergence of prices between two trendlines, one descending and the other ascending, creating a consolidation zone where indecision between buyers and sellers is palpable.
Statistical Analysis
Empirical data reveals that the success rate of the symmetrical triangle for a trend continuation is approximately 54%. This percentage, although higher than 50%, underlines the importance of a cautious approach and rigorous risk management in using this pattern.
Breakout Point
The breakout of the symmetrical triangle usually occurs when the price has traveled approximately 75% of the distance to the apex. This point is crucial for traders, as it often represents the moment when volatility increases and a new trend can be established.
Risks and False Exits
It is essential to note that the symmetrical triangle has a relatively high rate of false exits. Statistics indicate that approximately 13% of cases in a bear market can result in a false exit to the bottom. This phenomenon underlines the need for additional confirmation before entering a position.
Strategy of use
To effectively exploit the symmetrical triangle, professional traders must:
-Identify the formation accurately.
-Wait for the breakout near the point of convergence of the trendlines.
-Confirm the breakout with other technical indicators or an increase in volume.
-Put in place strict risk management to protect against false exits.
In conclusion, the symmetrical triangle, although being a valuable tool in the trader's arsenal, requires a methodical approach and a thorough understanding of its characteristics to be used effectively in a trading strategy.
Greedisbad
The 45 Degree Line: A Very Effective Tool in Trading.The 45 Degree Line: A Very Effective Tool in Trading.
When the ppix of an asset explodes and forms a very steep slope, the 45 degree line, also known as the 1x1 Gannangle, is an important and very useful tool in technical analysis, used to identify and predict market corrections.
Meaning of the 45 degree line:
The 45 degree line represents an equilibrium trend in technical analysis. It is considered an average support or resistance line, indicating a balance between time and price. This line is particularly important because it suggests a constant and balanced progression of the market.
Main characteristics
-Angle: The 45 degree line forms an angle of 45° with the horizontal axis of the chart.
-Notation: It is often noted 1x1, which means that it represents a movement of one unit of price for one unit of time.
-Interpretation: A trend following this angle is generally considered strong and likely to continue in the same direction.
Use in Technical Analysis
Traders use the 45-degree line in several ways:
-Identifying trend strength: A trend that follows or exceeds the 45-degree angle is considered strong.
-Support and resistance: The line can act as a dynamic level of support in an uptrend or resistance in a downtrend.
-Forecasting movements: Traders can anticipate trend changes when price deviates significantly from the 45-degree line.
-Multi-timeframe analysis: The line can be applied on different time frames, from short-term to long-term, for a more comprehensive analysis.
Integration with other tools
The 45-degree line is often used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools for a more robust analysis. It can be combined with indicators, chart patterns, or other Gannangles to confirm trading signals and improve forecast accuracy.
In conclusion, the 45-degree line is a powerful but often underestimated tool in technical analysis. Its simplicity and versatility make it a valuable tool for traders looking to identify and follow market trends with precision.
"Hindenburg's Omen" to predict a stock market crash."Hindenburg's Omen" to predict a stock market crash.
"Hindenburg's Omen" is a technical indicator in financial analysis designed to predict a potential significant decline or a stock market crash.
Here are the main things to remember about this indicator:
Definition and origin
Introduced by Jim Miekka in the 1990s.
Named after the Hindenburg airship disaster in 1937, symbolizing an unexpected disaster.
How it works
- Hindenburg's Omen is triggered when several conditions are met simultaneously on a stock market:
- A high number of stocks reaching both new highs and lows over 52 weeks (usually more than 2.2% of stocks).
- The number of new highs must not exceed twice the number of new lows.
- The stock index must be in an upward trend (positive 50-day or 10-week moving average).
-The McClellan Oscillator (sentiment indicator) should be negative.
Interpretation
-When these conditions are met, the Omen suggests underlying market instability and an increased risk of a significant decline.
-The signal remains active for 30 trading days.
Reliability
-The indicator has correctly signaled some historical crashes, such as the one in 1987.
-However, its reliability is questionable as it also produces many false signals.
Usage
-Generally used in conjunction with other forms of technical analysis to confirm sell signals.
Traders can use it to adjust their positions or as an alert for increased market monitoring.
It is important to note that, like any technical indicator, the Hindenburg Omen is not infallible and should be used with caution, in conjunction with other analytical tools.
In the following photos, a harmonic "BLACK SWAN" pattern was detected on the DOW JONES, announcing a stock market crash or a strong correction!
The "Head and Shoulders": Real success rates.Inverted Head and Shoulders: WATCH volumes when the neckline breaks!!
Here is what we can say about the success rate of the inverted head and shoulders pattern in trading:
-The inverted head and shoulders pattern is considered one of the most reliable chart patterns to anticipate a bullish reversal.
-According to some sources, the success rate of this pattern would be very high, with around 98% of cases resulting in a bullish exit.
-More precisely, in 63% of cases, the price would reach the price target calculated from the pattern when the neckline is broken.
-A pull-back (return to the neckline after the break) would occur in 45% of cases.
-However, it should be noted that these very optimistic figures must be qualified. Other sources indicate more modest success rates, around 60%.
-The reliability of the pattern depends on several factors such as respect for proportions, neckline breakout, volumes, etc. A rigorous analysis is necessary.
-It is recommended to use this pattern in addition to other indicators and analyses, rather than relying on it blindly.
In conclusion, although the inverse head and shoulders pattern is considered a very reliable pattern, its actual success rate is probably closer to 60-70% than the 98% sometimes claimed. It remains a useful tool but must be used with caution and in addition to other analyses.
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Head and Shoulders:
Here is what we can say about the success rate of the head and shoulders pattern in trading:
-The head and shoulders pattern is considered one of the most reliable chart patterns, but its exact success rate is debated among technical analysts. Here are the key takeaways:
- Some sources claim very high success rates, up to 93% or 96%. However, these figures are likely exaggerated and do not reflect the reality of trading.
- In reality, the success rate is likely more modest. One cited study indicates that the price target is reached in about 60% of cases for a classic head and shoulders pattern.
- It is important to note that the head and shoulders pattern is not an infallible pattern. Its presence alone is not enough to guarantee a trend reversal.
- The reliability of the pattern depends on several factors such as respect for proportions, the breakout of the neckline, volumes, etc. Rigorous analysis is necessary.
- Many experienced traders recommend using this pattern in addition to other indicators and analyses, rather than relying on it blindly.
In conclusion, while the head and shoulders pattern is considered a reliable pattern, its actual success rate is probably closer to 60% than the 90%+ sometimes claimed. It remains a useful tool but should be used with caution and in conjunction with other analyses.
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NB: In comparison, the classic (bearish) head and shoulders pattern would have a slightly lower success rate, with around 60% of cases where the price target is reached.
The “Fan Principle” is a powerful techniqueThe “Fan Principle” is a powerful technique in trading, using trendlines to predict price movements.
Highlights
📈 Powerful Technique: The Fan Principle is formidable in technical analysis.
📉 Identifying Points: Drawing trendlines from three key points.
🔴 Trading Signals: Buy or sell signals can be identified depending on the pattern.
📊 Practical Examples: Analyzing price movements on charts to illustrate the technique.
💰 Profit Opportunities: Strategies can result in significant gains, up to 22%.
🛑 Risk Management: Importance of placing stop-losses to protect investments.
🔍 Additional Resources: Detailed information and charts will be shared to deepen understanding.
Key Insights
📈 Technique Effectiveness: The Fan Principle helps identify clear trends using reference points, making the strategy both simple and effective.
📉 Importance of Confirmation: Validating trendlines with a third point builds confidence in trading signals, increasing the chances of success.
🔴 Warning Signals: Sell or buy signals, as shown in the video, can lead to strategic decisions based on historical analysis.
📊 Visual Analysis: Visualizing data on charts helps understand market movements, which is essential for technical analysis.
💰 Profit Potential: Trades based on the Fan Principle can provide significant profit opportunities, highlighting its effectiveness.
🛑 Protection Strategies: Placing stop-losses above resistance points is crucial to limit losses in the event of adverse market movements.
🔍 Access to resources: The information shared in the description and on other platforms offers ways to deepen the understanding of the technique and improve trading skills.
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The fan principle in trading is a strategy that consists of opening several positions on the same asset at different price levels. Here are the main aspects of this approach:
How it works
The idea is to open several positions (or "lots") on the same financial asset at different price levels, thus forming a "fan" of positions.
These positions are opened at points considered as potential market reversals.
The objective is to let these positions unfold like a fan or to close them gradually according to the evolution of the market.
Advantages
Risk diversification: By entering the market at different levels, the trader reduces the impact of a single bad entry.
Movement capture: This approach allows to take advantage of different phases of a price movement.
Flexibility: The trader can adjust his strategy by closing some positions while keeping others open.
Complementary Tools
The fan principle can be combined with other technical analysis tools to improve its effectiveness:
Fibonacci Fan: This tool automatically draws trendlines at key levels (38.2%, 50%, 61.8%) that can serve as entry points for fan positions.
Gann Angles: These lines, drawn at different angles (82.5°, 75°, 71.25°, etc.), can also help identify potential levels to open positions.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Some traders combine the fan principle with the RSI to confirm entry points.
Important Considerations
This strategy requires good risk management, as it involves opening multiple positions.
It is crucial to set stop-loss and take-profit levels for each position in the range.
Using this approach requires a thorough understanding of the market and significant trading experience.
NVIDIA: Bearish: Possible Head and Shoulders: Warning!NVIDIA: Bearish: Possible Head and Shoulders: Warning!
Hello everyone The Wolf of Zurich has detected a possible "head and shoulder" on Nvidia, which would bring the price down to around $42.
I have also drawn a trend line that you absolutely must watch!
The level to watch is around $98-98
Here, watch your Fibonacci levels as well as your exponential mobile means
Have a nice day everyone
Some information to know about Nvidia:
Nvidia, the world leader in graphics chips and AI, is enjoying a flourishing situation despite a recent drop in its stock price.
Here is a summary of its current situation:
-Dominant position in the AI market
Nvidia occupies a quasi-monopolistic position in the field of chips for artificial intelligence. Its GPUs, especially the H100 series, are essential for the development of cutting-edge AI systems and are selling at high prices around the world.
-Stock market performance
Despite a recent 9.53% drop in its share price, Nvidia has posted an impressive 120% increase since the beginning of the year and nearly 400% over 3 years. This one-off drop does not seem to worry analysts, who still see significant growth potential.
-Technological innovations
Nvidia recently presented its new Blackwell GPU architecture, with the B200 and GB200 processors. These chips promise performance multiplied by 5 compared to the previous generation in the field of AI. The company also reassured investors by announcing that it had resolved the production problems initially encountered.
-Future Outlook
With its dominance in AI training chips and its comprehensive software ecosystem, Nvidia appears well positioned for continued growth. The company continues to innovate and strengthen its position in the AI market, which suggests a positive outlook for the future.
WALMART: Bearish: Overbought alert: Impact on Dow JonesWALMART: Bearish: Overbought alert: Impact on Dow Jones
Be careful with Walmart as you can see cocoa and st microelectronic also rose to very very high historical levels and look at the correction that we had immediately after at least 40% drop
This action can have a significant impact on the Dow Jones
A strong correction could lower the DJIA index
I alert you on this I alert you especially on the notion of "stock market cycle" and "seasonality"
Walmart is overbought you just have to look at your technical indicators RSI, ROC, Stochastic, exponential moving average, Ichimoku, Fibonacci retracement.
We could go much much lower so be careful this action is overbought
Monitor your above-mentioned indicators.
BITCOIN: Double top possible + NAVARRO 200 bullish : Watch out!!BITCOIN: Double top possible: Watch out for 48,000 + NAVARRO 2000 bullish = 2 opposing patterns.
The Wolf of Zurich detected a possible double top on bitcoin
As expected, the 56,400 was reached perfectly thanks to my analysis.
The next levels are:
On the decline :
56,425 (again)
48,000
40,770
On the rise:
NAVAROO 200 bullish detected, and the price could reach $72,000 then $80,000
In addition, Be careful because there is a bullish divergence with the ROC!!
To watch the EMA 50 and 200, and the ICHIMOKU and Fibonacci levels
SP500 : Bearish : Similar patterns with the pastLook carefully at April 2005, October 2007 and Today. A "Sell Off" of 20% took place. History does not usually repeat itself, but in trading the phenomenon of cyclicals exists. It's just AMAZING! What do you think?!
In addition, the levels indicated are achievable in the medium term, 2-3 months;
In recent days, this is what happened at the macroeconomic level:
1-Jackson Hole
Result: No big impact on the markets: Dow Jones or techs.
2-NVIDIA long awaited:
Result: The action disappointed and went down
Minus 9.86% in total after closing and yesterday minus 6.38%.
Cause: Delay in the delivery of new chips, among others...
Will NVIDIA always explode the ceilings, while the competition arrives: AMD, GOOGLE, etc... with more efficient chips that do not heat up.
Technically the markets are OVERBOUGHT
so a return to the 38.2% or 50% of Fibonacci would be perfect for sellers, but also for buyers who would like to buy at a lower price!
I remind you that in trading we buy the bottoms and we sell the peaks!
GOLD: Bearish: WOLFE Wave detected + DivergencesGOLD: Bearish: WOLFE Wave detected + Divergences
The Wolf of Zurich has detected a Wolfe Wave on the XAUUSD.
The price could reach 242 then 2291
In addition, there are two divergences with the price: The ROC Rate of Change and the RSI.
To watch the exponential moving averages 50 and 20, as well as the Fibonacci levels
We have reached the price of 2520 that I will indicate
The maximum can be 3000. So be careful!!
TONCOIN: Possible "Head-Shoulders" under construction?!TONCOIN: Possible "Head-Shoulders" under construction?!
Detection of a possible chart pattern "Head-Shoulder" = "SUMMER" in Daily"
Monitor the " Nech line", and the Fibonacci and ICHIMOKU levels, as well as the 50 and 200 exponential moving averages on higher time units if necessary.
The downside targets are indicated on the chart.
We could return to the levels before the "Bull run"!!
Following the arrest of Pavel Durov, CEO of the company "Telegram Messenger", this news could accelerate the downward movement sharply!
Be careful!!
DOGECOIN: Rising wedge + R.O.C DivergenceDOGECOIN: Rising wedge + R.O.C Divergence
The Wolf of Zurich has detected an ascending wedge + A nice divergence on the R.O.C = Rate Of Change, which indicates the variation of the Momentum of the underlying.
To watch the 50 and 200 exponential moving averages
The Fibonacci and ICHIMOKU levels
VIX SP500: BAT and SHARK possibleVIX SP500: BAT and SHARK possible
possibility of a harmonic figure "shark" and "bat" which would bring the price to the levels indicated on the chart.
In addition there is a divergence on the R.O.C and the RSI.
monitor the Fibonaccio and Ichimoku levels as well as the exponential moving averages 50 and 200
BTC: Bullish-Bitcoin at $100,000!! WHY ??!Bitcoin at $100,000!! WHY ??!
First because the SEC Approves BITCOIN ETF, and it's an historical News!!
This is therefore the door open for an increase and an ATH (All Time High)
Second, the bitcoin could make a retracement to the EMA.50 and 200, and thus validate a CRAB (harmonic figure)
Third, the ICHIMOKU levels are reacheable to 35 200$$, and then after this retracement, the price of BTC could rise towards $100,000 at its highest!!
Be careful!
You can also WAIT the next wave before entering the market with "ammunition"
Think like JESSE LIVERMOORE ;)
VIX: “BUTTERFLY” was detected in (H4)-A bullish harmonic pattern “BUTTERFLY” was detected in (H4)
-On the downside, 11.82 should be watched.
-But the probabilities are stronger on the rise.
-The ECB’s speech will perhaps “change the situation”.
-Don't forget that Volatility lives up to its name VERY well!
-Be careful and “stay covered!” » ;-)
DAX: Bearish BUTTERFLY DAX: Bearish BUTTERFLY - Beyond the technical aspect, we can see that the DAX will spark a huge bullish rally following Madame Lagarde's interest rate hike announcement. As far as I remember, interest rate increases rarely increase 1% at the same time. Today's excuses for "buying rising rates" include: “We buy because we feel the upward cycle is over, and this makes stakeholders happy.”
But no one brings up the fact that we didn't expect this raise. Because we had the same feeling at the previous ECB meeting - that there would be no more rate hikes - and today we share the same story and everyone believes it. There is something rotten in the merchant kingdom, and if they realize it, the sanctions will be terrible.
SP500: Bearish BUTTERFLYDAX: BUTTERFLY - Beyond the technical aspect, we can see that the DAX will spark a huge bullish rally following Madame Lagarde's interest rate hike announcement. As far as I remember, interest rate increases rarely increase 1% at the same time. Today's excuses for "buying rising rates" include: “We buy because we feel the upward cycle is over, and this makes stakeholders happy.”
But no one brings up the fact that we didn't expect this raise. Because we had the same feeling at the previous ECB meeting - that there would be no more rate hikes - and today we share the same story and everyone believes it. There is something rotten in the merchant kingdom, and if they realize it, the sanctions will be terrible.
EUR/USD:Bearish Wolf wave detected,but EUR/USD: Bearish Wolf wave detected
+Broken trend line
+MACD is growing lower.
+Reachable Bollinger Bands on the downside.
However, be careful, because we could have a rebound:
+ Bullish harmonic pattern and its PRZ
+EMA.200 in target.
+ Reachable Bollinger Bands on the upside.