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JUMBO (BELA) Comprehensive AnalysisThe JUMBO stock recorded a significant drop of 1.90% yesterday, closing at 24.72 euros, which is the lowest level in the last six months . The dividend cut has affected the stock price, but forecasts from major analysts indicate significant upside potential. Last Closing Price: 24.72 euros 52-Week High/Low: 32.60 euros / 24.72 euros Economic Analysis Jumbo maintains a high dividend policy for 2024 despite market challenges. The company distributes 3% of its shares, with Apostolos Vakakis reducing his stake to 16.3%. The high dividend yield, combined with the expansion of the store network, enhances the attractiveness of the stock. Expected Dividend Yield: 9.1% 2024 Revenue Growth Estimate: 4%-8% Expected 2024 Earnings: Stable or slightly increased Lowering Revenue and Profit Targets – Warning of Possible Revision Jumbo informed investors that group sales increased by approximately 8% in the first half of the year, with a +9% increase recorded in June compared to the same month last year. Nevertheless, the company sets the bar for revenue and profit growth for the year at the lower end of the initial estimate of 8%-10%. Jumbo warns that if current conditions worsen, which is reasonably expected, the sales growth rate could be limited to +4% with profitability hovering at 2023 levels. Factors Affecting the Estimate Commenting on the business environment, the company mentions that the situation in the Middle East, with the "closure" of the Suez Canal, although initially temporary, will continue to affect the global supply chain likely even after the elections in America. The current global trade situation resembles the pandemic crisis, with transportation costs skyrocketing and delivery times doubling. Jumbo refuses to pass the burden of supply chain disruptions onto consumer prices. The company's strategy remains clear: it does not intend to offer overpriced products, as it estimates that the situation will reverse by the end of 2024 or 2025. Jumbo's Strategy Jumbo chooses products that meet the needs and capabilities of consumers. Faced with the dilemma of a product that includes the cost of disruptions and another with manageable costs, the company chooses the latter. This strategy is expected to lead to an increase in Jumbo's market share in the markets it operates, despite the expected reduction in inventory by the end of the year. First Half 2024 Performance Group sales increased by approximately +8% in the first half of 2024. In June 2024, sales recorded an increase of +9% compared to the same month last year. Detailed sales performance by country: Greece: Net sales increase of +6% in June 2024 and +7% for the first half. Cyprus: Sales increase of +6% in June 2024 and +4% for the first half. Bulgaria: Sales increase of +19% in June 2024 and +11% for the first half. Romania: Sales increase of +17% in June 2024 and +14% for the first half. Store Network Expansion As of June 30, 2024, the JUMBO Group had 86 stores: 53 in Greece, 5 in Cyprus, 10 in Bulgaria, and 18 in Romania, with online stores in Greece, Cyprus, and Romania. By the end of 2024, two new superstores are expected to open in Nicosia and Bucharest. The opening of the new superstore in Timisoara is postponed to the first quarter of 2025. Through partnerships, the group has a presence with 36 stores in 7 countries: Albania, Kosovo, Serbia, North Macedonia, Bosnia, Montenegro, and Israel. A second store in Israel is expected to start operating in August 2024. It is reminded that on July 16, 2024, the dividend from the 2023 earnings, amounting to 1 Euro per share (gross), will be paid. Citi and Pantelakis Securities See Over 20% Upside Potential for the Stock Citi and Pantelakis Securities predict more than 20% upside potential for Jumbo stock, despite the recent downgrade of the guidance from the company's management for the 2024 results. Citi Estimates Citi maintains the target price at €32.5, with an estimated upside of 23.9% from current levels. Combined with the dividend yield expected to reach 9.1%, the total return is estimated to reach 33%. The investment bank issues a buy recommendation for the stock. The target price of €32.5 derives from the average valuation based on the EV/EBITDA multiple, estimating that Jumbo will trade at 9 times the EV/EBITDA ratio for 2025 with a slight premium compared to the 5-year average, and from the discounted cash flow method. The target price implies approximately 14 times the P/E ratio for 2024, according to Citi. Pantelakis Securities Estimates Pantelakis Securities sets the target price at €36, with an estimated upside of 37%. They give an overweight recommendation and highlight that Jumbo is attractively priced at 10.1 times the P/E ratio for 2025 and 6.8 times the EV/EBITDA ratio. Pantelakis Securities calculates that the market at current levels discounts a long-term drop in the EBITDA margin to 17.8% from 36.8% in 2023, which is not justified. Furthermore, they mention that the strong cash flow performance in 2025 at 8% and the generous and sustainable dividend payments (6.9%) further enhance Jumbo's valuation attractiveness. Conclusion Despite the downgrade of the guidance from Jumbo's management for the 2024 results, both Citi and Pantelakis Securities see significant upside potential for the company's stock. Their forecasts are based on stable valuations and estimates for strong cash flows and sustainable dividend yields, making Jumbo stock an attractive choice for investors. Detailed Report Jumbo, one of the leading retailers in Greece, operates in the sale of toys, baby products, gift items, household goods, stationery, seasonal and decorative items, books, and related products in Greece, Cyprus, Bulgaria, and Romania. This analysis focuses on the financial data and technical indicators of Jumbo S.A.'s stock, providing a comprehensive overview for investors and analysts. Technical Analysis Open: €25.24 High: €25.24 Low: €24.72 Close: €24.72 Moving Averages (EMA): EMA 20: €25.52 EMA 50: €26.05 EMA 100: €26.42 EMA 200: €26.54 Jumbo's stock price is below all major moving averages, indicating a downward trend in the short, medium, and long-term horizons. Relative Strength Index (RSI): RSI (14): 31.23, indicating that the stock is in the oversold zone. MACD: Histogram: 0.0070 MACD: -0.3640 Signal: -0.3711 The MACD indicates bearish momentum, with the MACD line below the signal line. Pivot Points Support Levels: S1: €24.82 S2: €24.30 S3: €23.84 Resistance Levels: R1: €25.89 R2: €26.26 R3: €26.78 The stock price is near the first support level, indicating potential reversal points. Financial Data Key Statistics: Market Capitalization: €3.43B Trading Volume: 123.75K (30-day average volume: 173.45K) P/E Ratio: 11.3x (below the Greek market average) Revenue Estimate: €34.14 Analyst Forecasts: Highest Estimate: €38.00 Lowest Estimate: €31.10 Average Estimate: €34.14 Analysts predict a 38.12% increase in stock price over the next year, based on current performance and future prospects. Valuation Estimate Jumbo's stock appears undervalued compared to its intrinsic value, based on analyst forecasts and market prices. Future Growth Key Information: Earnings Growth Rate: 5.8% annually Revenue Growth Rate: 7.1% annually Expected Return on Equity: 23.8% in 3 years Recent Updates: Target price increased by 7.7% to €33.89 (May 23) Target price increased by 7.3% to €33.76 (May 6) Target price increased by 8.1% to €28.50 (August 11) Target price increased by 8.4% to €27.64 (June 27) Past Performance Key Information: Earnings Growth Rate: 14.2% annually EPS Growth Rate: 14.2% annually Revenue Growth Rate: 6.2% annually Return on Equity: 22.8% Net Margin: 28.0% Jumbo has shown strong performance in previous years, with steady earnings and revenue growth, and high return on equity. Jumbo S.A. demonstrates solid performance and has good growth prospects. Despite the recent drop in stock price, analysts remain positive about the company's future, with predictions for significant stock price increase over the next year. The company continues to invest in new markets and improve the efficiency of its existing operations, making it an attractive choice for investors.
ATHEX:BELALong
by kgougakis
AKRO, The Triangle LandAn Acropolis was the settlement of an upper part of an ancient Greek city, and frequently a hill with precipitous sides. We can totally see this pattern here, on $BINANCE:AKROUSDT. Hills with more hills and more hills on top of each hill, the precipitous sides of new and new formations. Question is, Will we hit the final destination of this move, The Pantheon? The big resistance zone from the older times. Even if we will, just remember, we're all human beings in these material forms and we don't belong to Pantheon. So sell quickly at the top, protect your belongings and go, cause there will be a bloodbath right after the Elders will smell the tourists on 'em land of Triangles.
Long
by A_I_Vision
2
GBPUSD Long short lonnnnngCheck it... ? current idea I am looking into, I have also taken a long up to the 1.395 area.. could have maybe taken it further but with around a 40 pip SL i'm fairly happy with this set up. looking again to short at that 1.395 area with a take around this level will post again later on to update. Then we go long looking for around 1.44/45 area. As you can see we have an ABCDE formation coming in (maybe) which will give us plenty of room either side of the market. the key here is to be unbias, patient and ready to take action.. If you look at this analysis on the daily chart you shall see my prediction for #bullish pound, a fifth extension updward.. (hopefully) I watch the month week daily and place on either the 8/4/1hr charts. I write this after a few beers and a bottle of wine (an awful lot of Greek food).. the analysis was done before that so apologies for the state of this... hope you enjoy and Firm handshakes. HAPPY TRADING. >:-) I am not a financial advisor or anything like that but i do take money from the market....
Long
by RGFX_
Options Delta ExplainedI’m Markus Heitkoetter and I’ve been an active trader for over 20 years. I often see people who start trading and expect their accounts to explode, based on promises and hype they see in ads and e-mails. They start trading and realize it doesn’t work this way. The purpose of these articles is to show you the trading strategies and tools that I personally use to trade my own account so that you can grow your own account systematically. Real money…real trades. What is Delta? What is Delta? You see options prices are influenced by what they call the Greeks. A few of the Greeks are Delta, Gamma, and Theta. These are just three of the Greeks there are more. When you’re trading options, it is important that you know about the Greeks and what they do. For this article, we will focus on Delta, what it is, and why you should know exactly what Delta is. Then we’ll go through a specific example explaining it, and then I’ll share with you a few things that you need to know about Delta. So let’s get started. The Greeks OK, so as I mentioned, there are the option Greeks. Here are a few of them and what they tell you: 1) Delta is actually measuring the sensitivity. It’s a mouthful, but I’ll show you exactly what it means, for the option’s premium relative to the underlying asset in this article. In a nutshell, though, it basically says, how much does the option price change if the stock moves $1 to the upside or the downside? 2) Gamma is the rate of change of the Delta. 3) Theta , and Theta basically measures time decay. What Is Delta? So what is Delta? Delta is a number between 0 and 1 that measures how much the price of an option changes if the stock moves by $1. I know all of this sounds super theoretical, so let me actually give you a specific example. Now, the example that I want to use here is Microsoft MSFT when it was trading at $211.20. I want to cover different strike prices of options, because, again, options have strike prices and expirations. We are looking at the current price of this option and we will look at the new price of this option if MSFT moves by $1 from $211.20 to $212.20. When you bring up the option chain in your trading platform, in my case I use Tastyworks, the option we are using as an example is expiring on November 27th. Here, you would see there are different call options on this site with different strike prices. You would also see that they have all sorts of different Deltas. So let’s get started with the 205 that is right now trading at $7.30, and the Delta is 0.8. Remember, the Delta is 0.8 because again, the Delta is between 0 and 1. I’ll tell you about negative Delta in just a moment. The current price of the option is what we are seeing right here. We look at the last traded price, the last traded price is $6.92. So what does it mean? It means if MSFT goes up by $1 to $212.20, that the new price is $6.92 plus the Delta ($0.80). So, you see this where it’s really important that you understand Delta. Some people think that options move even more than the stock, and this is not true at all. So option prices always move less than the stock price. So the new price here of the option would then be $7.72. So this is for a strike price of 205, and this is a strike price that is so-called ITM “In The Money” because its value, its strike is less than the current price. Now let’s take a look at a strike that is at the money. Now assuming MSFT is trading at $211 we will use the 210 strike price. The 210 strike price has a Delta of 0.57, and this would be a so-called ATM “At The Money” with a Delta of 0.57. Again, it is between 0 and 1. The current price of the 210 strike here is $3.05. We are using the last traded price here. So if MSFT moves by $1 upwards, this option only moves 0.57. So this means that this option moves to $3.62. Lets cover one more example. So if we are using a strike of 215, that would be OTM “Out Of The Money,” and the Delta is 0.27. So the current price of this option is $1.06. So if the stock moves up by a dollar, this option only moves up by $0.27. Even though the stock moves up by $1, this only moves to $1.33. Things You Need To Know So let’s talk about the things you need to know. Options that are ITM have a higher Delta then options OTM. So this means that ITM options move more. Now, if you were to look back at your options chain, you see that the Delta for deep in the money options is 0.98. So this basically means that if the stock goes up by $1, the price of this option goes up by $0.98, so the deeper in the money, the closer to $1 the price will move. So options that are ITM are more expensive. This is where it’s important that you see that there’s a relationship between the Delta and the price. The higher the Delta, the higher the price, because the higher the Delta, the more it is in the money. As a rule of thumb, options ATM “At The Money” which are right where the strike price is right at the level where the current price is, are usually around 0.5. Now, all this applies to call options. Now put options have a negative Delta which is between -1 and 0. Well, the price of a put decreases if the option goes up. So the Delta for put options is all negative. Now, put options that are ATM, are usually closer to one. And options that are OTM, don’t move a whole lot. This is very important because some people just think, “Oh, my gosh, I’m buying out of the money options because they are cheap. It is so much cheaper to pay $1.6 than $6.92.” But they don’t really move a whole lot. Now here’s a really cool tip that you might not have known. The Delta is a rough estimate of the probability of the stock price closing above the strike. So here, you see with a delta of 0.8, it means that there’s an 80% probability right now that the stock will be above that strike price. If the Delta is 0.27, then that means there’s a 27% probability that the stock will be above that strike price. So I think it’s kind of cool as an options trader to know this. So the Delta is giving you a rough approximation of how likely is it that the stock will be above or below the current strike price on exploration. Now here’s the tricky part, Delta is not fixed. So the Delta changes as the price changes and here’s why. Right now, if, for example, MSFT (trading at $211) goes up to 215, the current strike price of 210 is deeper in the money therefore, then the Delta will be higher. So now you know what Delta is, how it influences the option price, and you see that this is important when you are trading options.
TVC:NDQ
by rockwelltrading
Why isn't the Euro weaker?It could be said that it is slightly strange that the Euro isn't weaker. As of writing, EURUSD is trading at 1.1040 after seeing lows of 1.0458 back in February 2015. From March last year until February this year, EURUSD was in a very steep downtrend with a range of ~3500 pips. Since then, the pair has remained relatively stagnant, after seeing a bounce off of the 1.0460 level. With the Greek situation weighing and another round of Quantitative Easing, you probably would have thought that the Euro would have been much weaker. However that is not the case, evidently. We have 3 fundamental beliefs with regards to this. 1) The market has been poised for a US rate hike for a while. However, to justify a rate hike, consistently strong data has to be printed, but the US has not been able to achieve this as of yet. Combined with this, short term rate differentials would in fact suggest that EURUSD should be above current levels, as well as inflation expectations. These correlations are slightly weak, however. 2) Uncertainty in Greece is causing indecisiveness. Investors do not actually know how Greece will leave the Eurozone, as it has never been done before and there is no real procedure for a country to leave. On the flip side, Tsipras has suggested an extra EUR 60bn to be provided to Greece for the next 3 years. This seems like it would not solve the underlying problem and merely extend the time it takes to pay their creditors. Investors are aware of this. This uncertainty could be causing the lack of Euro weakness. If and when a deal is reached, a rally and fade could most probably occur (i.e a spike in price and then a fall). A good quote for why this situation is taking so long to resolve: 'if you owe the bank £500 it's your problem; if you owe the bank £5m it's their problem.' 3) Many people believed that the Eurozone would be like Japan in terms of reintroducing QE (deflation and QE for a long period of time). However, investors began unwinding short positions when they saw that Eurozone data was actually improving post-QE introduction. This lead to an increase in the price of the Euro which is still having an effect today. Please add comments. If you agree or disagree, I'd really like to hear it. www.admiralmarkets.com Follow us on Twitter: @AdmiralMarkets
by DavidBelleFX
10