friday short on fiberpossible short on fiber, liquidity has not been grabbed RSI shows signs of a strong short move at least for friday. lets see how it plays out, thanks for watching and your support. give me a follow thanks
Greenback
USDX Breaks Out: Gold Struggles For Direction
In the Monday 9 Sept. Oceania & Asia session both Gold & Silver were slow to make traction.
Prior to London session today, the USDX edged closer to 101.50 & made it to this level again, before retracing and breaking out through this level at time of writing. USDX currently 101.60.
Today, I saw some divergence happening between Gold and the USDX, as it rallied Gold did not sell off with the vengeance its normally known for.
XAU/USD Monday Trades ReviewToday's Trade Summary 📊
2x Trades Taken (1x Win & 1x Break Even) 📈
EUR/USD failed to gain enough momentum when the NY markets opened, so we closed for break even to protect our profits. XAU/USD (Gold) hit TP 1 for a 98.5 pips move, with all profits taken off the table at this time of writing, equating to a 1:1 Risk Reward gain. 💰🏅
I still expect XAU/USD to move to the upside, but I'm always a fan of securing the profits and being risk-free. I had 10% left in the trade, and I prefer to exit completely, enjoy the rest of the evening, and protect my psychology with a clean win to head into tomorrow's trading day positively. 📊😊
Hope you all had a great day and will catch you in the AM for tomorrow's trades. 🌞
Capital Club Team 💼
XAU/USD Intra Day/Week Play - 27/05/2024With gold being at all time highs our analysis on this week's play was carried out on the Daily and 4hr to set a respectable tone to price action and what we anticipate seeing over the coming day(s) / week.
On the daily we see that price has finally exhaused itself to complete its upward move to the extreme supply zone of 2,440.372 and has now started to retrace back to key demand levels leaving behind it some imbalances on the daily and 4 hour.
Overall the ema's all support a bullish direction to which I believe we will continur but not before tapping into the unmitigated bullish order block at 2,317.065 and then heading upwards to seek out the extreme supply zone levels of 2,432.198
This all supports the inverse corrolation we anticipate happening with the greenback on this week's analysis also which can be seen below.
We are aware that CPI and Unemployment claums will greatly impact this technical analysis so it will be interesting to see how this week plays out.
Let me know your thoughts on this.
Hope you have a great week ahead.
Happy Trading.
The FX Capital Club.
DXY (Dollar) Intra Day/Week Play - 27/05/2024On the monthly we can see that the dollar is on aan upward trend after breaking outu of it's previous range at 88.528 which has now become a key level of support.
We have seen this extention continue to levels 113.016 and then returned back to create a range between 101.421 (lows) and 107.424 (highs)
Price action is suggested to continue ranging to complete distributiob before heading to the downside to test the POC levels of 99.885 and possibly even further to 94.510 to test the bullish order block which has yet to be mitigated before continuing back on the upward trend.
On the Weekly we can get a clearer picture of this range and noticeably see that supply side liquidity at 106.726 has been swept which futher confirms our assumption that price will continie to the downside to the POC levels at 99.955
On the 4 hour we are able to get an even cleared picture with some assumptions being made that will test the 105.051 levels to form a bearish head and shoulders pattern and then heading down to test support level of 104.043 as part of a change of character, only to retract back to retest previous support at 104.380 and continue to he downside to reach our POI at 102.517.
Taking all these price movements into consideration it is very likely that we'll see the greenback test all these levels to head back int the demand zone area of 100.500 - 102.000 over the coming week.
Let me know what you guys think.
Hope you have a great week ahead.
Happy Trading.
🇺🇸 President Joe Biden’s Bearish Remarks on the USD vs. CNY 🇨
Ladies and gentlemen, my fellow Americans, and all you Zoomers out there, gather 'round! Uncle Joe’s got some thoughts about our greenbacks and those sneaky Chinese Yuan. Buckle up, because we’re diving into the financial rabbit hole. 🐇
1. “The Dollar’s Got Swagger”
You know, folks, the U.S. dollar has been strutting its stuff for centuries. It’s like that cool kid in high school who always had the latest sneakers and a killer mixtape. Well, guess what? The dollar’s still got swagger. 💸
2. “Yuan? More Like Yawn!”
Now, let’s talk about the Chinese Yuan. Sure, it’s got pandas on its bills, but pandas don’t pay the rent, my friends. The Yuan’s like that kid who shows up to the party with a veggie platter. Nice try, but we’re here for the pizza. 🍕
3. “Quantitative Easing? Nah, We’re on a Diet!”
Our Federal Reserve’s been flexing its muscles, printing money like it’s going out of style. But guess what? We’re not on a doughnut binge. We’re on a financial diet. No more QE buffets. 🍩
4. “Trade Wars? More Like Pillow Fights!”
China and the U.S. have been duking it out in trade wars. But honestly, it’s like watching two toddlers in superhero costumes pillow-fighting. Cute, but not exactly world-changing. 🛌
5. “0.11 CNY/USD? That’s a Bargain!”
So, rumor has it the yuan’s gonna dump to 0.11 CNY/USD. Well, let me tell you, that’s practically a yard sale price. Sell one, get one free! 🛒
6. “Zoomers, HODL Your Avocado Toast!”
To my Zoomer pals: Forget avocado toast for a sec. HODL those dollars like they’re vintage Pokémon cards. Trust me, when the Yuan’s doing the cha-cha, you’ll thank me. 🥑💰
7. “Crypto? Nah, I Prefer Monopoly Money!”
And don’t get me started on crypto. It’s like playing Monopoly with invisible cash. Pass Go, collect Bitcoin. But give me that real green paper any day. 💵
In conclusion, my fellow Americans, let’s keep our eyes on the prize. The dollar’s been through wars, recessions, and disco fever. It ain’t backing down. As for the Yuan, well, pandas are cute, but they won’t save your retirement fund. Stay woke, stay dollar-wise, and remember: In Joe we trust (and a little bit of Ben Franklin). 🇺🇸💪
Disclaimer: This post is purely fictional and for entertainment purposes. No actual financial advice here, folks. Consult your financial advisor, not Uncle Joe. 🎩🤝
Greenback Correcting Its Dovish OversoldWhat market participants expected:
- 2023 Sept: Betting one last rate hike (a 4th in year 2023) in Nov/Dec FOMC meeting.
- 2023 Dec: No rate hike in Dec FOMC meeting. Afterwards, expected the Fed to cut in March 2024
What the Fed told us:
- According to the 'dot plot', majority of committee anticipate a 50-100 bps cut by the end of 2024.
- Powell once said the Fed will act if inflation comes back up.
USD movement:
- "Hawkish" Nov/Dec rate hike expectation fell short that was interpreted as Powell's "dovish" stance.
- Implied 150 bps rate cut mismatched the Fed's projection.
- Speculations amplified the "mismatch" during holiday session when traders and fed officials are in the holiday.
- When volume comes back after holiday, markets act to correct.
Technical view:
- DXY still being the triangle, i.e. support found upon its upward trendline
- Short-run key level would be 103, where around a former bottom
- Actual resistance should be 104 when an inverted Head and Shoulder pattern is forming.
Greenback Runs US Base Currencies!Here's a Billion DXY nugget for all who have an ear to listen: receive: and learn.
The DXY aka Dollar aka GreenBack aka That BULL aka Dolla Dolla will make her Holla : runs US Base Currencies and is Zeus in the markets.
KNOWING this Objective Fact : you can mark up the DXY and trade it against most US Base Pairs especially FX:EURUSD and whichever way the DXY is biased that day then EURUSD will be biased the exact other way within it's own specific buy/sell model and specific buy/sell schematic.
The DXY is Bullish. :)
FX:EURUSD has fallen.
Never over leverage.
Trust your trade set up. Typically most trade take time to manifest. If it doesn't hit your stop let it be.
Continue to have a Great week of trading!!!
DXY bullsih pullbackThe dollar rally in May allowed the DXY to break above the blue 61.8% Fibo rate of 103.915 and the dollar rally looks ready to take a breather after touching a high of 104.695.
In terms of technical indictors, the daily MACD is rolling over and a sell signal seems imminent. The RSI is also turning after touching the overbought level at 80.00 which is supportive of the expected pullback.
The previous resistance rate at 103.915 will switch to a support and a break below this level will allow the DXY to fall onto the black 23.6% Fibo rate at 103.772 (slap bang in the middle of the blue support range). A deeper pullback will see the DXY pullback towards 103.314.
For now, I’m not sure how deep the pullback will be, but I expect it to be a bullish pullback. The worst-case scenario for the greenback will be a test of the 50-day MA level currently at 102.369 but thereafter I expect a strong rally back towards the current yearly high at 105.898 which coincides with the long-term green 38.2% Fibo retracement rate.
Euro's probable fall to parityThe greenback looks set to add to its gains against the euro after yesterday’s sticky US CPI print. Positive employment data from the euro zone and in line with expectations Q4 GDP prints yesterday also did little to spark confidence in the euro.
The euro managed to push the pair above the 61.8% Fibo retracement level, 1.096, from the downward wave following the start of the Fed’s hiking cycle. The dollar has since managed to find its footing which has seen the pair fall back onto this critical level. This rate at 1.096 also coincides satisfyingly with the 50-day MA rate currently at 1.0719. I expect this support level to give way which will allow the dollar to pull the pair onto the zone between the blue 38.2% Fibo retracement rate of 1.044 and the green 50% Fibo retracement rate of 1.046. A break below this level will see the dollar test the pair’s 200-day MA rate currently at 1.032 and deeper into the zone between the green 38.2% Fibo at 1.023 and the blue 50% Fibo at 1.021. I honestly won’t rule out a move back to parity around the end of 1Q2023 and start of 2Q2023 as it coincides with the blue 61.8% Fibo rate and the green 23.6% Fibo.
Fundamentally I don’t see much support for the euro unless there is a concrete “Fed pivot”, which is looking unlikely. As the recessionary realities hit the global economy investors will run back to the dollar and higher yielding US bonds which will be dollar positive.
Technical indicators: The sell signal on the daily MACD indicator is losing momentum which could allow for a pullback towards 1.080 and 1.090. (This is where my sell limit orders will sit). The daily RSI however still has room to move lower. It’s the weekly indicators which are making me a greenback enthusiast (I’ll leave the weekly chart in the comments).
The weekly MACD buy signal is rolling over and looks set to cross to a sell signal and the weekly RSI has already started rolling over from its high of 68.70. The weekly RSI has not been this high since January 2021.
The dollar’s deprecation in 4Q2022 was clearly a melt up in investor risk-on sentiment which rode on the back of the supposed “Fed pivot”. The dollar milkshake is very much in play for 2023.
DXY Pre January CPIThe upward momentum on the DXY after January’s positive non-farm payroll print on the 3rd of February seems to have subsided for the time being. The DXY managed to test its 50-day MA and touch the green 23.6% Fibo retracement level at 104 but these resistance levels have held their ground. The 23.6 % Fibo also coincides satisfyingly with the neckline of the previous upward trendline as well as the blue 50% Fibo retracement level.
There was a gap down at market open this morning ahead of the highly anticipated US CPI print for January which is negative for the greenback. Last week Friday the BLS quietly revised the CPI higher for four of the past five months, with one month unchanged so always take CPI results with a pinch of salt (CPI is a lie but it influences investor sentiment). The supposed CPI for January is expected to print 6.2%, down from 6.4% in December, yoy.
My track record forecasting scenarios from data prints aren’t great but this is how I see the lay of the land; an in line with expectations or a print lower than 6.2% yoy will add fuel to the Fed’s self-proclaimed narrative that they have beat inflation. This scenario will be dollar negative and will spur risk-on investor sentiment. This scenario will allow the DXY to fall below the support at 103 (covid peak) and drop lower towards the critical support at 101.843, blue 61.8% Fibo retracement level).
On the flip side, a print at or above 6.4% yoy will have investors running back to the safe haven dollar with their tails between their legs. This scenario is expected to push the DXY above the resistance level of 104 and higher towards 106.00. (I don’t expect a fair CPI print if they can just quietly revise the numbers higher at a later stage without spooking the markets thus, I’m not in favour of this scenario materializing today).
Technical indicators: The buy signal on the daily MACD seems to be rolling over which is dollar negative but there is a fair degree of bullish divergence on the RSI which is keeping me on my toes. I’m leaning towards the first scenario I mentioned earlier. Over the longer-term (the remainder of 2023) I’m very much bullish on the dollar and I think the bottom for the DXY is in at 100.90 I believe we will see the dollar milkshake theory play out this year when the economic realities start collecting their debt.
Economic logWith the New Year here with the Fed fighting aggressively to battle inflation i know there are a lot of rumors floating around the FED either lowering, maintaining, or increasing the FFR (federal funds rate). none of this matters in my opinion.
why?
price goes up and buyers slow down.
Because, the FED jacked up interest rates so fast that they did not allow the markets to adjust. it seems as is the fed noticed that the inflation was indeed not "Transitory". anyone who believed the idea of transitory inflation is honestly quite foolish. something as absurd as "transitory inflation" is lip service for "give us a second to decide what to do". And "do" they did. As traders we do not care whether its political, all we care about is "the Set-up" there are a few fundamentals that lead me to believe this could potentially be a solid set-up.
1. during 2020 the FED lowered interest rates and here in the states there was a huge surge in demand for housing. So, homeowners bought houses at super low interest rates around the 3's. prior homeowners refinanced their homes at lower interest rates. Around the same percentage. Commercial Real Estate Investors bought RE during this time thinking the good times were going to continue to roll and when the bridge money is complete the inexperienced RE investors probably did not account for the massively higher interest rates on their Exit Caps when they ran their due diligence. So whats going to happen is now that the FED has made money way more expensive it has locked these investors and the sorry souls that invested with the guys in with the property. they will not be able to offload the property, because they will have to take a loss on the property because the cap rate went up and the buyer will not be able to afford the asking price at the 6-7% interest that is currently at in Jan of 2023. Nor will a lending institution lend Grade A money on grade B or C property.
2. Banks are in major trouble. the lending institutions that made riskier loans are about find out where their weak links are located. if borrowers did not lock their interest rates down the borrower and the lender are about to be at odds. This goes for people who took out a home equity line of credit out on their primary residence to buy some thing stupid like an expensive car, boat, girlfriend whatever. typically HELOCs are floating rates (not always) but most of the time. Banks are businesses and make their profit on the spread. Just like your market makers in trading. So the spread is the difference between the interest rate the bank has with the federal reserve and the interest rate you the consumer are willing to pay for the loan. example: if the FFR is 6% then the bank is going to charge you (typically around 2% over the FFR) 8% on a mortgage, car loan, whatever loan product. if you lock your interest rate down at 8 % you're good, but if not you're in trouble.
Why?
3. Going back to the business part and the mortgage part. all the buyers and refi-ers that locked down at 3% are staying where they are at. the mentality is "why pay more for the same amount of house or the same house" So new home loans and refinances (the banks cash cow) are drying up. So how does a business survive the drought? they take their floating loans and shoot the rate sky high. to make up for the loss volume of new loans. Commercial Loans, HELOCs, HEILs, Refinances. The potential problem with this is the borrower accounted for the interest at the stated rate of lets say 3-5 percent. 3 percent everything is good, 5 percent the family is eating butterless toast. Well the contract states the bank can charge you up to (example) 20% on the loan after a seasoning period. on a 30 year 100k$ loan thats $20,000 dollars. so now the loan is 120k$ and the loan payment went from 286$ to 341$ naturally a 20% increase on your payments. Now I know alot of people are excited about mortgage rates coming down, but im not sure this is a good thing. i havent seen the paper on these loan products but im guessing one of two things
A) these are floating ARMs (adjustable rate Mortgages)
B) the banks are getting desperate for business. the FED doesnt control mortgages (YET) its up to the individual banks that borrow from the fed. The fed charges them the borrowing bank the FFR its up to the borrowing bank to decide what to do with cost they can either eat it and absorb the cost or they pass it on to the consumer. so when i hear mortgage rates being 6% or 7% which is near the current FFR its telling me the banks are trying to drum up business. it is by no means a good thing like i keep seeing.
4. Commercial loans are the same way. instead of giving the business the loan based on the borrowers position they are based off the businesses health and business plan. and the terms are a bit different. in commercial loans you have what they call balloon payments and thats when the loan matures. the balloon is typically 5-7 years and again rates can fluctuate. But to make the payments more affordable they lock you in at a payment rate of typically 20 -25 years but could go high as 30 years and even better they're typically interest only loans. So an example of this is on a 100K loan at a 20 year payment rate at 3% with a 5 year balloon youre only paying like 12$ month to month but at the the end of 5 years you have to pay back the entire 100K$. so, that leaves the business a few options to either refinance or liquidate. Now this is not all commercial loans but the ones im familiar with are like this, so if you're holding any businesses in your paper portfolio you need to be paying super close attention to their 10Ks and 10Qs, because a lot of businesses in-cooperated either the influx of cash or lack thereof during this weird COVID time. So if you're seeing their assets drop and their debt rise or maintain or even drop it means the business is selling off its assets to meet these increasing loan demands or even worse their taking new loans to pay off old loans.
5. the fed is in charge of the employment rate as well. kind of odd or counterintuitive to be frank on the matter. but it does kind of make sense. when you look at #4 you can see where the problems start to arise. once the businesses start to liquidate their physical plants they begin to square off the excess fat to bridge the gap. so all unnecessary employees and departments begin to get cut. So when you look at the unemployment rate i think every percent is a million people. So, when you hear things like 4% or 5% unemployment its basically saying 4,000,000 or 5,000,000 people are unemployed. the FED has stuck hard and fast on keeping inflation at 2% its in Powell's speeches on the FEDs website the writing is on the wall in essence. He has also been quoted to be unhappy with the employment rate and wanting higher unemployment.
6. Student loan bubble. I dont know how this is not being discussed in major outlets. But we have a major student loan bubble on our hands here in the states. the problem arises with the issue of the recession we are currently in at the moment. I whole heartedly believe that the US is in a period of Stagflation. productivity has leveled off or dropped off and prices are increasing. The problem arises (as i have said in prior posts before) is the last recession of 2008 businesses never really increased wages after that period i believe out of fear. they learned they can suppress wages and increase productivity so there is no need to increase wages if we can get more for less right? SO, we have kids leaving university with degrees and student loans with the promises of better paying jobs than their vocational trained counter parts, and the plan back fired. students are graduating university and taking jobs that are paying the same amount that a high school drop out is getting payed. (with the exception of STEM based degrees) Why? Because of wage suppression and the older work force staying in the work force longer locking up those higher paying positions due to inflation. So, these kids are forced to take lower paying jobs, live with their parents, and then 6 months later the bill is due for the loans.
Im no conspiracy theorist im just a trader that uses a highly debated technique of trading, but if you just remove yourself and look at the bigger picture its clear to see that the world is moving toward a centralized economy. it will probably be a digital one that the central planners can control so they can limit the funds available to their opposition. AKA the FEDcoin. a digital dollar is a terrible idea. but thats a post for another time.
long story short the pattern is a bearish butterfly. with all the fundamentals listed above with the rising interest rates i see the dollar gaining strength and in essence following this pattern and coming down over the long haul.
thanks for reading my conspiracy! if youre a homeowner lock your mortage rate if you can or pay to lock the rate. even if its 1% or 2% higher than it is currently i dont see the FED slowing down until we get under 5% inflation (if the US government doesnt change the items listed in the CPI)
64 Cents In Sight For The Aussie? Likely so!Based on the technical picture, the AUDUSD has broken the demand zone & support on 4H timeframe which was also confirmed on the daily timeframe. Now the price seems likely to fall towards the upcoming demand zone / support. Have a look at the main chart for full details on this trade. If you wish to enter, make sure the RR is at least 1:1.
Trade Cautiously & Safely
GBPUSD Sell TradeI beleive the USD is about to roll back. Daily trendline resistance, support / resistance level capping upside.
Some BOS and ChOCH In this chart we can see some pattern that fits to this strategy.
We saw a lot of liquidity in the path few months.
And sometimes the market can give u some bouncy bull trend for a couple of days or even week or two.
In this chart , u can see some pattern that give us some indication that may be some poll up , and then it going down to check the LL prices
And after that we can hope.
USDJPY SHORTSWe can see a double top formation, which might lead to a sell from the resistance zone. Keep an open mind guys, anything can happen.
POUND - DOLLAR LONG [GBPUSD]From the Higher Time frame We can see price reacting to strong levels of support and we see price rejection on the daily. We could likely see a push upwards in the coming week.
$DXY Weekly - Last leg higher before some consolidation?The DXY Index has seen a spectacular move since the start of its recent uptrend in May 2021 - >10% in under a year. The move has been aggressive, offering very little in the way of pullbacks. However - we are starting to see the first signs that the index may be due some consolidation, namely:
1) Large extension from 200-day SMA (yellow)
2) Overbought RSI
3) Bearish RSI divergence
4) Extension from steep upward sloping support (green)
5) Nearing lateral resistance at 100.45
6) Nearing top of triangle (101.50)
Is the top confirmed? - Certainly not yet, and the bigger picture still looks constructive for the dollar. However, one could argue the current strengthening trajectory is unsustainable, and even in an uptrend - a pullback/consolidation is considered healthy.
$DXY Daily - Within whisker of 100 handle The 97.80 lateral support held, and the DXY Index is within a whisker of touching our target of 100 - highlighted by us earlier last month. The small bull flag break may give the dollar the legs it needs to keep running.
GET READY FOR SHORTFX:USDCHF
greenback correction against swissy with the release of US business economic data.
ISM - Non Manufacturing PMI ( March 2022)
Actual : 58.3
Expected: 58.4
Pervious : 56.5
Play in consolidation area FX:GBPUSD
The pair's consolidation area is between 130.6 - 131.6
A few days ago, forecast of this pair's movement was sideways tending to be bearish. And that view has not changed, as there has been no significant economic progress between the two pairs.
GBPUSD is likely to move down when the Fed raises interest rates in May.
DXY Daily - Eyes 100 handle as long as 97.80 holdsDXY has been trading in nice uptrend since beginning of June - Bouncing a number of times off its upward sloping support. Last week Friday saw the massive break through lateral resistance at 97.80 & successfully re-tested and held on Wednesday = bullish. As long as 97.80 holds, the next area of resistance is around the 100 handle. However, through 97.80 brings in the upwards sloping support at 96.30, and we then have the combined lateral support and 200day SMA around 94.50.
DXY Critical Point 11/02/2021we can see the price has showed some resistance and felled off back to its bearish trend but yet we have a heavy Accumulation zone at 88-90to which market has already showed some reaction and it stood as a support area, we may have some retrace back up to the 38% or 50% of current bearish wave Fibonacci levels and then heads down to the -61.8 of the same wave expansion,
we have defined few TP areas by the confluences of Fibonacci and Price Action where we expect to get if DXY continued its down trend.
from the other side we are having some fundamental news also coming which is not seems to be that good for the greenback and some how supports the fall of the Currency temporally
by this analysis we can be more bullish on the USD Quote instruments and bearish on Base ones.
we are publishing this idea Neutral we had seen some Regular Bullish Divergence with MACD coming up in the Weekly Time Frame which is in the linked ideas
