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ridethepig | Thoughts on Turkish Lira📌 The capitulation After PA in December 2018 showed us the basing formation it has been all 'one way trafffic' This may lead you to wonder why it is so important to understand the fundamentals and definition of current capital flows, because it is then possible to build one's whole swing around a macro fundamentally sound trade idea, that underpins the technical ebb and flow tactics. Of course we continued to pile on longs all the way up, our confidence in the swing was building which influenced the way we were able to construct the trade and future of the operation. Here I must highlight that the move does not last for ever; a full blown +50% move in a currency crops up occasionally, in fact even more you can see the need to capitalise on these moves. So, as we approached the start of the 'flash crash' or up in this case, the following additions were made: Then suddenly it happens, the almost powder runs dry in Turkish local banks and we get the momentum higher. It shows how hollow and uninteresting currencies can be, very straightforward when used in the safe little world of macroeconomics. A quick update on the initial leg of the Q3 flows we were tracking live: The final motive to clear was nat gas being discovered, the threat of continuing higher is very high and therefore logical to trade. Funding rates are casually moving higher but with no sense of urgency which of course is linked to the entire defence system for sellers at 7.80. Now it's important to load off of the previous resistance in the first leg of Q3 at 7.20, for a move into the final macro targets above at 7.80xx right on time for the elections. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
NZD/USD Kiwi Shorts - Ichimoku Price Structure SellThe Kiwi has been pushing lower pretty easily since our initial kumo breakout. We are in the middle of a bearish engulfing candle and approaching previous price structure support. If we can break that support then it will confirm our short bias. I've drawn out a couple targets I'll be aiming for. I don't always make this clear, but I wanted to make sure everyone following my analysis knows that I leave some of my position running even past my targets until I see my confirmations change. This is one simple tip you can use to give yourself a slight edge over time if you're a trend trader. If we fail to break and hold below support at the entry I've drawn, then this setup may become invalidated.
Short
by The808Trader
ridethepig | DXY Market Commentary 2020.06.15A quick update here for those tracking the entire swing in Dollar: It would be more natural to develop in this structure with a test of 99, since the impulsive sequence (if it is such) must eventually test 92.92 to complete the move. To keep up the pressure on USD the social focus will instead switch towards Atlanta and health focus on virus cases which sadly are shooting higher once more. To exploit the USD "weakness" the positions are more of one: 📍For those tracking Short-term flows: 📍 For those tracking the Long-term Macro chart: As usual thanks all for keeping the likes, comments, charts and questions rolling!
TVC:DXYShort
by ridethepig
3
Greenback at 100!Firstly, please support our work by clicking like button or following! These really assist us to reach more investors & traders like you! The DXY was on an upward trend for greater part of 2018 & 2019 right into Q-1 of 2020. However, the Index had failed to go beyond 100 until COVID-19 come and triggered a momentary dollar buying in the markets. Bullish Fundamentals 1. Global Economic slowdown - threat of US recession in Q-4 of 2020 into 2021 - Impending Euro zone recession 2. Sustained US labour market improvements, unemployment which currently stands at 11.1%, & set to decline as the US shrugs-off the economic effects of the pandemic 3. Federal Reserve tightening. - In the medium to long-term, if the Fed raises rates faster than it's peers then the Dollar buying spree will return Bearish Fundamentals 1. Quantitative Easing & MP loosening - This has created excess liquidity which has been used to purchase stocks & related assets 2. Higher yields in Emerging markets
TVC:DXY
by tatendaaa
USDHUF Bullish Runs for Exotics??Earlier last week RiosTrades entered in a Small Short Run for this pair and got out due to potential reversal. This week we look at the market opening ourselves to where price can go (either side, look for reasons as to why price may go the other way). This upcoming week I believe the USD has been doubted for long and will commence in rising, these exotics all share high correlation with each other and in my findings I tend to see a lot of Exotics looking to push to the upside. With proper risk and money management, we can enter this pair and get stopped out and enter short after the next exhaustion if we really wanted to, all about RISK + REWARD. Stay in the Game.
Long
by RiosTrades
USDZAR BuyTrading is not 100% knowing where the market will go to but it sometimes means with proper fund care you can enter special opportunities such as this one. Price is at Support deciding to break above its local minor resistance which gains my interest, I believe price may struggle to push ahead certain price ranges but confident that the Greenback will push ahead knocking out Sell Order. Entered Bullish in this trade at its exhaustion, left some key notes on this chart.
Long
by RiosTrades
1
DXY (Dollar Index) The Dixie Okay, The King Dollar! we have a bullish crab pattern that has completed it first target. The Crab pattern completed a T1 set up all. PA marched all the way to the 382 and reversed almost not a pip more either. we had a few trades happen above the 382 but not many! This week we could see some good down moves on the dollar, maybe all the way down to the Crab PRZ. This is in part that the sides have switched. The Commercials have started buying the pair overall and the non-commercials are selling which will drive prices lower on the Dollar. With this in mind there is a good chance that the stock market will have a good week this week as the stock indexes are contraian to the DXY. So, all my trades for the dollar this week and maybe for the near future are going to be more short biased. The Net Data is as follows: Commercials- Current== 5,142 // Previous== (5,328) Non-Commercials- Current == (5,344) // Previous== 4,689
TVC:DXYShort
by ARegularGuy
ridethepig | DXY Long-Term Macro MapThe attentive readers have been asking can USD still devalue in this race to the bottom! The simple answer is that this is a good ploy in in such a restricted monetary environment although this move would be considered a bad one nowadays from a strictly fundamental perspective: the weakness of the dollar is necessary in order for equities to continue the advance. US were faced with a 'choose your side' between a weaker stock market or a softer currency; and opted for the weaker green. 📍 On the positioning side... The fate of the game now depends on the retrace leg in macro charts. If the dollar is driven off the cliff, then as G10 & EM FX are already committed to the short-circuit the flows will be very simple to track. This is a nice illustration of the Quarterly theme "aggressive dollar devaluation". The move in question is transparent and therefore a good illustration of the theme and how to officially mark an outpost on the 'B' wave. So the correct play is to complete the ABC sequence before adopting a wait-and-see approach. In order to get in as quickly as possible and at any price, we must begin to dig into the inner swings on lower time frames. Today we 'know' that the satisfactory requirements have been met at 102.5x, the plan from last year: The longer term chart shows clearly the move(s) we are tracking and expecting. " => The move towards 102 is still corrective and within the bigger picture this is a large B wave of an ABC since the cycle highs in Jan 2017. " ✅ " => In theory we can expect another 5 wave decent to match the logic of the previous 5 wave move, ideally this will kick start the flow from 102-103 range highs. " ✅ The manoeuvre from sellers becomes crystal clear, a devaluation cycle, they wish to seize the 75 and 50 targets in the multi-year correction before raising the stakes later in the decade once supply shortages enter into the picture. But the move cannot be said to have positive value on volatility, since expansions and contractions in vol have a case to play : 📍 On the technical side... Here I had been expecting the sell-off (at last!) from the 102.5x highs and had prepared a nice problem for my opponent, namely the EURUSD explosive move to the topside and now threatening the ultimate break of 1.15xx. It is relatively easy for someone who knows about the CB intervention on such a line and how it must be put under pressure. The 87.4x in Dollar is a minimum target for our 'C' leg that we are tracking, anything beyond this would imply that the impulsive leg towards 75 and 50 is underway. In what follows from the comments, I will give me feelings and views to the next moves, so we can follow what is happening. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
TVC:DXYShort
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | DXY Market Commentary 2020.06.05A quick update to the DXY chart which is essentially intended to cast some light over G10 FX as we prepare for NFP. In order to understand the dangers of pursuing a weaker dollar too energetically, we shall in what follows begin to point out the inner wave flows in which short-term moves become indicated. The process of short-term swing trading is automatic for macro players, having a clear understanding of the direction and which side occupies control ensures us of control over individual strategically important swings and the apparently desirable opportunities where retail begin to go overboard will become clear places for us to do profit taking and trap them in the opposite directions. Lets review a sketch of the Middle and Long game with Dollar: Clearly sellers wish to occupy the flow, in order to deliver an impulsive wave to the +/- 75 targets; but if they try moving too far too soon they will exhaust and allow buyers to prevent the attack. So, sellers will play the macro swing in incremental waves ... 1 ... 2... 3... 4... 5... The correct sequence is to play both the impulse and retrace exchange, and, in the current case, we are reaching the main impulse target so its time to leave late sellers no room to protect with NFP because they have to cover. For the Technical NFP flows: Steel Support 93.8x <=> Strong Support 95.8x <=> Soft Support 96.7x (we are currently here) <=> S/R FLIP <=> Soft Resistance 97.83x <=> Strong Resistance 98.8x <=> Steel Resistance 99.9x When major forces on both sides come under attack, it comes down to a sort of exchange / expansion in vol which we shall call: "Sellers trying to sell their lives for the highest price possible". Anyone with the slightest TA knowledge can tell sellers are gunning for the lows, they want to condemn bulls to death, it appears understandable given the domestic US issues on social and political unrest to want to sell your life for as much as possible. Imagine for a moment you are soldier, down to your last clip and you are surrounded... You would need to take as many enemies out as possible so you will pick your moments. Smart sellers will defend in the most important areas! Coverage resuming as usual here after @ridethepig returns back to London...Thanks as usual for keeping support coming with the likes, comments, charts, questions and etc!
TVC:DXYLong
by ridethepig
3