Aussie bright future ahead against greenbackI will post a visual link here later after I complete uploading the video in my channel which will be an in-depth analysis of why AUDUSD major pair will have a high probability of long bias throughout the week. Till then please give me some time and have an eye on this chart. Will comment here the link soon stay tune ;)
Greenback
Cable: so called bullish but weakeningEven a human being need to die before they have to reach in heaven. This is just a currency pair all those pumping news from UK and European has to somehow seem to lose steam for now while the pair seems to be getting exhausted for now to carry on further upward. Even if it's a bullish market in perspective of long term some pullback in intraday is enough to book some profit in the short term trades. Cable indicating somehow pullback for now IMO.
Counter parts on fire! So may Aussie too?! AUDUSD LONG IDEAPrice seems to be in ascending channel. king is struggling after the Brexit developments report spiraling around the internet in every news site which just helping to boost the bullish sentiment of the pound and euro which obviously helping to lift up the price more further up direction. Dxy has been showing some sign of a bearish reversal in a daily timeframe so do the trade-weight has also dropped pretty down and which all pointing out king weakness. Some inflation reports weren't good from the king earlier and Oct 30 is near pressure on fed has raised more. I guess further ease possibilities which are all why counterparts of the king doing great at the moment. Time for dollar devaluation probably.
Dxy losing its strengthAscending channel lower trendline breakout . Below the monthly pivot point indicates bearish sentiment. Fall from the past strong resistance 98.67 . Floating below the weekly SMA (green). After the counterparts of greenback like the pound and euro had some great comeback over greenback couple of days earlier because of some positive Brexit development news spiraling around the major internet news portals. DXY was having pressure since then and had a pullback but I fear if it's dollar devaluation time then we may see furthermore deep in future ahead.
USDJPY DUAL PLANS TO TRADEBullish pennant breakout pushes USD/JPY to an upside.
Keep your eyes peeled for clues that the bulls still have muscle in their hustle to boost the dollar to the 108.958– 109.871 previous area of interest.
Not convinced that an upside move is in the works? You can also short USD/JPY at the earliest signs of bearish momentum using our Plan no. 2 if plan no. 1 fails.
Wanna ride cable to the hell or fly to the sky?!!!Reading up all the last day fed reports expectations of future cuts in 2019 aren't much and not so dovish dot plot/statement from Fed Chair Powell is holding the cable from rising further today. Fed had a dovish cut but talking about the future outlook it sounded not so dovish (no further major rate cut may arise and depending on economic data changes and how chaotic it gets fed may play conservatively if need to ease mp further) and now the only reason we can expect cable to rise strongly again is if the BOE surprises with positive rhetoric today, then the bottom of that rising channel may hold to present traders with a short-term buying opportunity. Yep, you got it I'm talking about the bullish bias here!
If you’re a bear on the pair, then the not so dovish future outlook of Fed statement scenarios mentioned above had already drawn in some relief rallying for the Greenback, and in this scenario if the market is able to break below the rising channel lower trendline, that’s likely a strong signal for bearish momentum and bear players can start jump in. And any dovish rhetoric or surprise rate cut scenario from the BOE later will more likely turn a break into a swing move lower that potentially returns Cable back to its longer-term downtrend.
Cheers! Have a party with cable tonight :D
USDJPY - Divergence on Major Support with 500 Pips Gain*Yellow = 200 EMA | Blue = 100 EMA
This is the FX:USDJPY with Ichimoku overlayed with two moving averages. This pair is setting up nicely for a 500 pip move between 104.499 and 109.621. The support around 104.50 level has been used as resistance multiple times during September and October 2016. It has been used as support March 2018, January 2019, and August 2019. This support also moves in confluence with a 0.786 Fibonacci Retracement Level and resistance moves in confluence with 0.5 Fib Level.
This strong level is also being approached with bullish divergence between RSI(14) and price . The RSI hit the 25 level end of June 2019 and proceeded to fall over 200 pips (106.740 - 104.50 level Approx.) while RSI moved up to over 35.
What to look for?
a) Break of Kijun Sen
The Kijun-Sen is also called the Baseline and acts as a moving average as well as major resistance/support. A break of this moving average would indicate further action supported by the Kijun-Sen and most likely a complementing Tenkan-Sen (Conversion Line) cross.
b) Kumo (Cloud) Twist
The Kumo Twist is the Ichimoku Cloud transitioning from one side to another and in this case, would signal the move from bearish to bullish sentiment and indicate further bullish price action.
c) Kumo Breakout
The Kumo breakout accompanied by the other two factors would be a show of strength off the support and a potential play for the resistance.
Keep an eye out for these factors, and good luck traders!
NZDUSD Likely To Decline Further Towards 61 Cents!
Have a look at the snapshot above. It represents the nearby support and resistance levels on monthly TF of NZDUSD. A convincing close of monthly candle below 0.64000 would likely confirm probable bearish continuation until 0.61000 where the next support lies.
Looking at the main chart, there is a nice descending channel continuation! Should the monthly candle and this week's candle close below 0.64000 we can take this pair SHORT to target 0.61000 level.
The fundamental outlook too is against the KIWI as global slowdown due to trade war is affecting the KIWI. With the Tradewar far from over and RBNZ leaning towards slashing rates again to boost the economy, a visit to 0.61000 is highly likely.
This just represents my outlook on this pair, shall a trade opportunity arise i will post it in a new thread.
Easy Gold Zone TradeIf your a member of mine, these zone should look familiar, we've already grabbed a really nice buy of the bottom of the zone. Now that we've hit the top of the zone we have two ways this trade will likely progress. Looking at past history the most likely case would be a drop back down into the middle or bottom of the zone. Once price drops below our current candle we can look to sell. If we manage to break higher then I will be watching for a re-test of the top of the zone for a buy. So, either scenario shouldn't be too far away, we just need to watch how it progresses.
More GBP Strength?! - Ichimoku GBP/USD Long TradeThis setup is a continuation on our trade from last week that is currently running in profit.
I am looking for a new trade entry to present itself on a drawback to the wicks of previous price structure resistance.
If we get that drawback and support holds, I'll enter my long with the same targets as our previous trade that is currently running.
This drawback may not come right away, we may get a move up to test the line that is across the flat kumo.
So, we'll need to be patient and see how it moves first.
If we fail to get our drawback we can also trade a breakout buy upon a candle close above our flat kumo level at 1.2300. If either of these scenarios fail to play out, this setup may become invalidated.
Pound to Fight Back? - GBP/USD Ichimoku Long TradeWhile I have a hard time seeing the Pound gaining much strength over the coming months, right now that is where the technicals are pointing me for the time being. We're above the kumo, we have a bullish kumo twist, and chikou span is above price. So, all the bullish confirmations are there that I need. I've set my entry level right above previous price resistance to act as a trigger. If we break that, we should be able springboard off it and climb higher. I've drawn out a longer term swing target, and as always, lots of levels to aim for partial profit along the way. If we fail to break through resistance and climb higher, or if our bullish confirmations change, this setup may become invalidated.
DXY 98Greenback reached 98 mark and is starting to show signs of resistance on 4hr TF. On one hand could break through and work its way back up to 98.93 which we saw two weeks ago- move could be supported with positive CPI data that's scheduled to be issues later today. On the other hand growing recession fears, as signaled by the US 2-year-10-year Treasury yield curve inversion will continue to keep the bulls on the edge. Will keep an eye on DXY....
GBP/USD - A 2000 Pip Reversal! *Yellow = 200 EMA | Blue = 100 EMA
This photo captures the recent movement of OANDA:GBPUSD on the daily chart. In this movement, we see varying price action, but the most important of which is the upcoming support around 1.199 which is an all-time low . This means that the support is outlined on every major time frame including the monthly, weekly, and daily . However, This support is even more significant because of the signals gathered from chart patterns and indicators:
a) In October 2016, January 2017, and March 2017 we saw a triple bottom which sent us flying to upper resistance capturing over 2000 pips. We're approaching the same level and could count this as a larger double bottom which we could rebound off of.
b) RSI has held steady at the oversold level RSI(14) around 24. However, while the RSI has held steady from May 2019 to present day, the price has dropped over 400 Pips signaling bullish divergence.
c) To reiterate, what makes this particularly enticing, is the fact that this is an all-time low , and support which has been set and respected in the past.
It is important to note, however, that movement upwards could very easily be stifled by fundamental decisions; a No-Deal Brexit under Johnson or lower interest rates released in the future by the Federal Reserve under Trump . However, moving forward there are technical signals which could lead us to further bullish price action.
1. Break of minor resistance at the 1.25 - This could be the start of the reversal and a good level to keep in mind when trading this pair.
2. Break of 50 level on RSI(14) - The RSI has been recently suppressed at the 50 level (short term) and has not moved into the overbought territory since the peak in January 2018. Strong movement from the RSI would indicate bullish sentiment bouncing off the support level which would only fuel the move.
Trendlines:
i) A trendline drawn from the peaks in April 2018 and March 2019 looks like it could move in confluence with minor resistance at the 1.25 level.
ii) A trendline drawn from the peaks in July 2014 and April 2018 looks like it could act as resistance (and is in confluence) with resistance at the 0.618 Fib Retracement. This Fib level has acted as a buffer for price action in the past.
A Fib Retracement drawn from 1.454 to 1.199 shows that the 0.5 level has acted as STRONG resistance and support and will most likely continue to do so in the future . Ideally, we break through that level, but the movement could be capped or at least slowed until sentiment and action are taken to break through the level.
Thank you for reading, and Good Luck Traders!
EURUSD HEAD AND SHOULDER PATTERN!!!Price Action (Technical Analysis): After a successful breakout of the head and shoulder pattern we find ourselves in a very volatile area with
#1 Price retesting Daily Head and Shoulder Neckline
#2 Price Retracing to Neckline Structure is also the Downtrend 61.*% Fibonacci Retracement
#3 Downtrend Confluence
#4 Long wicks in the Daily time frame and closes below retracement level
waiting for candlestick confirmation....
Fundamental Analysis: None.
USD/CHF SHORT OPPORTUNITYPrice Action (Technical Analysis): Price broke out of the daily bearish wedge, either price continous to break below and test the previous structure it breaks (Support turns into Resistance) or price decides to retrace to a key fibonacci retracement level.
Fundamental Analysis: None.
USD/CAD ASCENDING BREAKOUT!Price Action (Technical Analysis): We see Sellers are beginning to gain confidence as price was rejected when entering our Resistance Zone. It is common to see Price Copy its Previous Pattern, we seen price attempt in the same pattern to break our Weekly Resistance and instead brought back down, Buyers are attempting to break above one more time but from what I see, price broke out of the Weekly Bullish Trend and i'm anticipating price to pull back before continuing short.
Fundamental Analysis: Buyers and Sellers are very attracted to this Currency Pair especially after the recent week we just had with Major News all week. US Border Talks are causing a High Volatile Market with Investors high interests in Commodities + Safe Havens also due to the stirred pot of news last week that brought a lot of uncertainty.
USD/JPY TOP DOWN ANALYSISPrice Action (Technical Analysis): Price is flowing in a Descending Parallel Channel, i'm anticipating price to continue in its channel until reaching our Support Zone
around 101.000. If our E Wave is properly set-up, it can give us our next push down completing our Elliot Triangle Waves also being our next Short Idea since we are in a deep downtrend.
Fundamental Analysis: After reviewing all the data presented from last week with Wall Street dumping 3 Major Indexes leading this pair to drop over 200 points. We have to be aware that the Greenback potentially will continue to be depreciated as word goes around the dollar may cute rates again before 2020. The Yen is already projected to come over a previous PMI of 51.9 to 52.3 which tells us the Yen is in for more of a Hawkish Policy.
BTC/USD BITCOIN SQUEEZING? Price Action (Technical Analysis): After receiving a decline when price reaches its descending trend line, Bitcoin looks to be coming down to the end of its squeeze anticipating a high volatile push to the upside as buyers are getting ready to enter this upcoming week.
Fundamental Analysis: Big week for the Greenbacks as traders interested in Bitcoin speculate US Dollar Fundamentals.
GOLD DAILY ANALYSIS, BREAKDOWN FOR THE WEEKPrice Action (Technical Analysis): After Friday price is still consolidating between our 9 day & 26 Day MA. There is still a lot of buying volume in the market using our Ichimoku Cloud and RSI, indicating Daily Oversold Market. If price continues to fall then I expect buyers to enter the market around 1395-1400. We are in a bullish market and consolidating in 40-60 pip zone so if price does fall below then we have a strong support level ready with horizontal buyer sensitivity.
Fundamental Analysis: None.