GrowGeneration | GRWG | Long at $1.90GrowGeneration NASDAQ:GRWG is approaching one of my favorite technical analysis setups as it gets closer to my selected historical simple moving average (SMA: the white and teal lines). Often, but not always (i.e. public offering news...), the price will jump to the selected historical SMA after a long period of consolidation - which has been occurring for some time. Additionally, the President, CEO, and Director of NASDAQ:GRWG have been buying shares recently near $2 which is a bullish indicator. There are currently only 54.8 million floating shares and an 8%+ short interest, so this could get interesting if the election cycle whips up new interest/chatter about national decriminalization of marijuana. As a result, GrowGeneration is in a personal buy zone at $1.90.
Target #1 = $2.20
Target #2 = $2.50
Target #3 = $3.00
Target #4 = $3.50
Growgeneration
GRWG buy the dip!First off for summary:
Grow Generation is a leading retailer of hydroponic and organic gardening products in the United States. The company was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado. Grow Generation provides a wide range of products and services for indoor and outdoor gardening, including hydroponic and organic growing equipment, nutrients, and supplies. The company operates more than 30 retail locations in 13 states and is committed to providing high-quality products, expert advice, and excellent customer service to its customers. With a growing customer base of professional cultivators and home gardeners, Grow Generation is well positioned for continued growth in the hydroponic and organic gardening industries.
TA: It is very clear we are under the 5year trend line.
In 2018/2019 when GRWG was at these prices the revenue was a 4th of what it is now so even with the marco economic outlook uncertain, I think this is a great buying opportunity.
These guys are growing at a healthy rate and there is still a large untapped market in the midwest that they are positioned well to capture. I've been watching more and more folks convert from alcohol to delta 8 products and it's only a matter of time before the feds decriminalize delta 9 sales.
I think we will break above $10 by summer.
If we test new lows I'd reconsider.
$GRWG Nearing A Breakout? Cannabis Sector Move?$GRWG Has had positive earnings and after holding the 200 EMA (orange line/Support) has bounced and broken downtrend. This candle held the break in downtrend, but I expect Monday we will potentially retest its resistance around 43.50
Positive Earnings from companies like $CGC and $HEXO in the coming weeks could help push cannabis sentiment, but GRWG does run by itself due to being in the lucrative craft of selling cannabis growing equipment and materials which is perfectly legal and doesn't have to go through a banking run around.
Looking at 47.50 as my first target going into next week. Volume in comparison to previous sessions is low, and with that I wont be taking any sizable positions until I do. $GRWG trading requires high time frame observation in order to verify the price is still in trend, as it isn't a huge daily mover but does tend to gap up quite well.
If we manage a decent run and market willing we could see $GRWG hit the psychological target of $50
Upon a break of $50 my first target will be 53.50 between June and August. $55 as a PT seems to be the consensus amongst analyst.
I will be doing a video breakdown on this tomorrow. To go more in depth.
I actually like the stock
$GRWG Setting UP! 4/8$GRWG Setting up with a Symmetrical Triangle here on the daily. It has been holding around $50 for a week and today got a huge pop and is up over 12% for the day. Now slammed up against resistance I do think if we can Gap up above $56 we could see a retest of that resistance turned support and solid continuation to the upside especially with Cannabis News BOOMING!
I think on the flipside a rejection tomorrow would be fierce and possibly have GRWG back at its support around $44
Grow GenerationCompany Overview:
At GrowGeneration, we aim to be the best in Selection, Service, & Solutions. Currently we are the largest hydroponics supplier in the country with 46 retail and distribution centers. We carry and sell thousands of products, such as organic nutrients and soils, advanced lighting technology and state of the art hydroponics equipment used by commercial and home growers. We have strategic partnerships with the biggest brand names in the industry, and offer a direct to farm delivery service along with equipment financing. Our Commercial Team is armed with industry leading professional consultants that are here to help fully manage any size project. Each Commercial Account has a dedicated Account Manager, Customer Service Representative, and Quoting Specialist appointed to your company. The Commercial Team offers a one-stop shop for all your supply needs from seed to harvest, including turnkey facility designs, cultivation room designs, and on-site project consultations. Along with superior service capabilities, the Commercial Team is here to increase yields, lower production costs, and generally increase the productivity of any cultivation facility. Our website, GrowGeneration.com, operates as an Omni-Channel Ecommerce platform with 10,000+ products with available shipping around the country, along with a customer service team available to answer any questions and help make your grow operate as efficiently as possible.
Detailed Analysis in Photo!
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What do you think?
Will watch this for a week or two before making a decision. If I miss a move, I'll wait for another dip.
GRWG - A Bear CaseWeighing both impending federal policy changes and strong fundamentals, GrowGeneration (GRWG) looks like a promising cannabis stock to buy & hold. With an incoming Biden administration, federal cannabis decriminalization will happen, paving the way to allow banking institutions to service the industry. While GRWG doesn’t operate in the agricultural or distribution segments of the cannabis plant (most impacted from federal banking regulations), it will benefit when legal barriers are removed. As a distributor sales channel of hydroponic equipment and consumable products used to grow cannabis, GRWG stands to benefit from a large shift in federal policy and has already benefited from state policies legalizing both medical and recreational cannabis use.
With everything good happening to the cannabis industry, I lay out a bear case for GRWG and why it should not be bought as an investment.
Executive leadership is the primary reason GRWG is uninvestable. Hindenburg Research, an activist short seller, has published findings detailing the company’s leadership indiscretions going back decades...and it’s ugly. Strong executive leadership teams should display the industry’s best business minds, squeaky clean personal backgrounds, and a track record of wins in previous business dealings. Hindenburg brings to light GRWG’s leadership’s ties to prior penny stock pump & dump schemes, various SEC entanglements, personal relationships with known persons associated with criminal syndicates, various failed business ventures, financial accounting gaps … the list goes on and on and on.
Before moving forward, let’s call a spade a spade: the purpose of Hindenburg’s research is to convince investors to sell GRWG. Hindenburg has a publicly stated short position in GRWG and has an agenda to drive the stock price down. They directly benefit from painting this company or its leadership in a negative light. One should take the research with a grain of salt when weighing its importance in a decision to buy or sell the stock.
While Hindenburg Research’s findings were enough for me to sell my position, I found this wasn’t the only red flag.
Following Bill O’Neil’s CANSLIM methodology when analyzing stocks, one of the metrics is Cash Flow per Share vs EPS. Cash Flow per Share for a great stock should be +20% greater than EPS in the same quarter. Starting with FY2019, they posted four quarters of Cash Flow per share equaling EPS; a 0% increase in Cash Flow per Share vs EPS. FY2020 was shaping up with Q1 & Q3 having both +16.6% Cash Flow per Share increases vs EPS. 2020Q2 posted a -83.3% decrease of Cash Flow per Share vs EPS. I would normally give this one miss a pass due to their strong sales growth over the past 8 quarters, increasing more than 125% (QoQ vs PY Q) and strong EPS growth over the past 6 of 7 quarters (QoQ vs PY Q) because, we’re measuring the total sum and not measuring just one metric. But, I also wanted to deep dive that 1 quarter (1 of 7) where EPS contracted. At first glance, the -700% decrease in EPS vs PY Q occurred in 2020Q1 and my first inclination was, it must have been the impact on their business due to COVID-19. I dug deeper into their 10Q and read:
The net loss for the quarter ended March 31, 2020 was primarily due to the increase in share-based compensation from approximately $80,000 in 2019 to $4.1 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2020.
…
If the new share-based awards effective January 1, 2020 were level vesting over two years and not front loaded vesting then the first quarter of 2020 expense would have been reduced by approximately $2.43 million and the first quarter of 2020 net loss would have been net income of approximately $332,000. Future periods share-based compensation would increase as a result of spreading the $2.35 million over two years, had the awards been level vested.
TRANSLATE: Management decided to bump up compensation all at once vs spreading it out over the next two years and by doing that, hurt earnings for the quarter.
What kind of forward thinking, long-term oriented management team would do that? With everything good happening in this industry, management couldn’t have taken compensation increases over the next two years in order to preserve positive momentum the in their fundamentals? I suppose spreading it out over the future 8 quarters could put stress on future earnings, but then, maybe this isn’t the time to increase compensation if it can’t be successfully managed. I get it, an increase in executive compensation after growing at an insane clip for the past 5 quarters feels earned, but great business leaders are supposed to be the harbingers of good faith with the intention of growing the stock price for all shareholders. There was no better way to increase compensation? In my opinion, this decision represents terrible judgment at worst and poor planning at best. This was red flag strike number 3.
1) Hindenburg Research
2) Cash Flow per Share vs EPS not hitting the mark
3) Management throwing a wrench into earnings, when they had the option to otherwise not, in order to benefit themselves.
For these reasons, GRWG is entirely uninvestable.
In all honesty, if we play devil’s advocate and assume everything in Hindenburg’s Research is true, that is more than enough reason to not own this stock. I encourage everyone to read it in order to familiarize themselves with what a worst case scenario looks like. The overall fundamentals in this stock look pretty damn good and even Hindenburg states, “... bulls would likely argue that the business is positioned well to consolidate its industry niche and grow into its numbers with the backing of strong management.” Unfortunately, that does not seem to be the case.
When heeding activist research, be skeptical when talking heads make claims like the those laid out in Hindenburg’s piece. They have a short position; they want the stock to go down. Gauge your own risk profile and trading style. Do your own homework.
Happy Stock Picking!