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Is the bearish trend finished? ARKK.Today I will share my view on Cathie Wood's ETF and the pending setup I have. * The main structure of the current situation is the yellow descending channel , where we have been observing several contacts there. * The confirmation for me to start thinking about bullish opportunities happened when the inner descending channel was broken. * After that, I decided to wait for 4 days of corrective movement (which had already happened) and define activation levels on a new high. (green horizontal line) * The invalidation level or stop loss for this situation, if the price reaches my activation level, is 62.00. I will consider that my view was wrong; therefore, I close my position on a 1% loss. *If the previous scenario is true, I will make a re-entry on a new local high, following the same concept as before. *I'm doing this because I think the upside potential is really good ( target on the end of the green arrow ), which provides a risk to reward ratio of around 4.5. That's why I have a re-entry plan; even if I'm stopped out 3 times until I can catch the real movement, the setup would still be profitable. Thanks for reading; feel free to share your view and comments on the chart.
AMEX:ARKKLong
by ThinkingAntsOk
1
Growth vs. Value: Skating to Where the Puck Will BeHockey legend Wayne Gretsky famously said: "Skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been." This sometimes applies in investing and trading. Towards what object have investors been skating, figuratively speaking? Currently, financial media, fund managers, and commentators have been emphasizing the opportunities in value over growth for several months. And for good reason: Energy, a value / cyclical sector unloved for about a decade, has outperformed every other sector this year by a huge margin. It has risen by approximately 20.5% since January 1, 2022. Even it's uptrend channel could not contain it (although it looks to be consolidating at the moment or perhaps mean-reverting). Increasingly, market participants have been "skating" towards value areas and away from growth for over a year now, as anyone who has been burned by long trades in tech / disruptive innovation knows. For example, a spread chart (also called a ratio chart) of ARKK/SPY shows just how dramatically growth has struggled. ARKK is a well-known US ETF containing high-beta stocks typically categorized as disruptive-innovation stocks, i.e., high growth names. This chart evidences just how much growth has struggled vs. the S&P 500. Notice, though, how this spread chart shows how close to major, long-term support the ratio has moved. Examples abound of high-growth names having been crushed in powerful bear markets in those names. Some of them are even top names with innovative products and services and an impressive record of earnings / sales growth: Square ( NYSE:SQ ) has declined about -68% from all-time highs, Upstart ( NASDAQ:UPST ) fell about -81% from its high to its low in late January 2022, and ( Roku ) dropped about 78% from its peaks. Even large cap tech not gone unscathed: Facebook NASDAQ:FB suffered a nearly -50% decline after a huge earnings / guidance disappointment. But in general, large-cap tech has been the exception in growth until the selloff this year. While growth / tech in general has struggled for months, large-cap tech names such as GOOGL, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA have outperformed. Even AMZN's sideways move for about a year should be considered outperformance relative to other high-growth names as shown by the ARKK chart above: see the chart below, which is a relative chart of AMZN vs. ARKK, revealing that even with AMZN's lengthy sideways move, it has dramatically outperformed growth / tech names more generally. Markets are in constant flux. So often, just when the little people (retail traders like me) take notice of a powerful new trend or outperformance, it ends. So I'm trying to watch for where markets are moving rather than focusing on where they are. In short, is growth bottoming out relative to value? Here are a few charts to consider. 1. The main weekly chart above (also copied below) is a spread chart showing the ratio of NASDAQ:IJT (small-cap growth) vs. small cap value. Notice how close to major long-term up trendline support the ratio has moved. And the weekly ratio is also right at support at March 2021 and May-June 2021 lows. The RSI for this relative chart also shows that it's oversold to 33.65, a level that only appears in multi-month (and often multi-year) intervals. Even the two RSI lows in 1H 2021 occurred 2 months apart, but this is the exception looking back longer term. 2. Large-cap growth is right at support at a long-term uptrend line. See the weekly spread chart of the ratio between XLK/SPY. AMEX:XLK is a US ETF that is heavily weighted towards large-cap tech. 3. Equal-weighted growth vs. equal-weighted tech RYG/RPV is also very close to long-term upward trendline support. 4. Interest rates are nearing long-term downtrend channel resistance—at the upper line (the actual downtrend line). Interest rates have soared powerfully since mid-2020, and the Federal Reserve has hawkishly signaled coming rate hikes, and market participants have behaved as though rates will keep on going to the moon—by selling tech / growth, which struggle when rates rise b/c of discounting of future cash flows used to value such names. The viewpoint that rates could turn around in the near future seems radical, contrarian and unreasonable. But consider this chart below. Could rates turn around just after a large move just after millions of market participants have been flocking towards value names that outperform in rising-rate environments? Some well-known experts have already taken this view. www.cnbc.com It seems priced into the market right now that the 10-year yield could continue rising, that the interest rates could even breakout higher above long-term downtrend resistance, and that the Fed is likely behind the curve in controlling inflation. It seems consensus that value could continue to outperform long-term, and that growth could break even long-term support levels and continue to plummet. But if this is priced into the market, shouldn't one consider buying what's already priced in? Especially because maybe what is priced into the market will not last. Thinking about where the "puck is going to be" may suggest that tech / growth is making a multi-month or multi-year low or that interest rates are going to pullback in the next few months, allowing tech to thrive again.
NASDAQ:IJT
by SquishTrade
4
This is my current plan on ROKUROKU is down 70% from the previous "ATH" and is below a clear descending trendline; I'm really interested in this kind of name to look for opportunities in case a new bull run comes. My main thesis to support the idea that a new bull run may come is on the logarithmic chart. As you can see, these big drops have already happened in the past , and after that, we observed massive bullish movements. So my view is that there are similarities between them and that past behavior may repeat again. Ok, nice that these mean that we should buy now? Of course not; that's why we use technical analysis to detect common patterns between all these past situations and try to find which would be the most efficient way of trading this "opportunity." My conclusion is that I want to observe breakout followed by a correction in the daily chart of 7 to 12 days and a clear 10% retracement. IF that happens, then I will be interested in trading on a new local high in the same way you can see on the chart, with a target on the next major resistance level. What happens if the price keeps falling? Then I will not trade, and I expect a move towards the next support. From there, I will look for the same setup I'm mentioning here. Thanks for reading! Feel free to share your view and charts in the comments!
NASDAQ:ROKU
by ThinkingAntsOk
6
HUGE Long-Term BUYING opportunity on PayPal #PYPLWe've just opened a LONG #PYPL (PayPal Holdings) position using 2.50% of our equity as we believe that the current post-earnings sell-off is quite overdone at these levels. The stock is down over 58% from its all-time highs of $310 that it reached mid-summer last year. Our view is that while there are definitely issues related to the future growth trajectory of the company that investors are rightfully worried about, the current price action is pricing in the worst possible scenario for the company moving forward, which in our opinion has a very low probability of actually materializing. Furthermore, the weak forward guidance and the severely lowered investor expectations will make it that much easier for the company to beat its own forecasts in the coming months, considering its leadership position in its sector, thus surprising the street positively. This will then cause a chain reaction of positive analyst upgrades and price target revisions. Yes, this whole process might take some time to materialize, but if you are looking for a solid growth stock with a remarkable long-term potential to double your money, then #PYPL is a screaming buy anywhere around the $125-130 range. There is no question about the fact that the miss on the bottom line (EPS) in the most recent earnings report together with the poor forward guidance that the management gave on the earnings call after have been the major drivers for the vicious sell-off that we are seeing today. For 2022, management expects net revenue to increase about 15% to 17% (19% to 21% ex-eBay), and that’s below the roughly 18% analysts were forecasting. The earnings outlook wasn’t any better, with management forecasting adjusted earnings of $4.60 to $4.75, well below analyst estimates of $5.21. On the new users front, PayPal expects to add about 15 million to 20 million net new active accounts this year, and analysts were forecasting growth of about 55 million. This was definitely one of the most disappointing components of the report. However, we believe that the down-beat forward guidance given by the company is hugely blown out of proportions and it seems that investors have been very quick to forget that #PYPL is the leader in the digital payments space and could technically be considered as the largest digital bank in the world with over 300 million clients. Our analysis shows that the eBay transition that the company has been going through has definitely weighted on its financial performance. However, we are in the final stages of it and it will be over and done with by the second half of the year. What investors need to focus on is the fact that the company’s growth rates excluding eBay have remained above 20%. In addition to that the #AMZN (Amazon) partnership with Venmo hasn’t even started yet, and PayPal is free to explore many new partnerships now that it is no longer constrained by its relationship with #EBAY (eBay) . Also, operating expenditure growth is also expected to moderate down the road, allowing management to flex the leverage in the business model and help expand margins. Apart from adding the stock to our long-term corporate investment portfolio here, we've also opened few long-term CALL options on $PYPL, which we expect to substantially boost our portfolio returns in 2022. Follow and copy us for more detailed market analyses, profitable trading ideas and a consistent portfolio performance. Sincerely, @DowExperts
NASDAQ:PYPLLong
by DowExperts
UPST - Better short term price action among the peers Rejected 4H ATR as expected. If it can hold the recent low of 75, I'd expect this name to lead the pack. Long term I am very bullish on this name...what they do is the future with literally sky as the limit. at the risk of being ridiculed, I expect this to be a trillion dollar company in next 10 years. ONLY 4 american companies have managed to achieve that feat, so a lot needs to fall in place for that to happen. Below 75, capitulation(?) move to 45 is totally possible.
NASDAQ:UPST
by CheelooTrader
2
Kroger stock is investor's safehaven in a volatile period.Hi everyone, Today I want to raise an interesting topic of stock market sector rotations. NYSE:KR is a great example to demonstrate that. Since late November broad risk assests have been selling off. When investors see the rise in volatility and sell their tech stocks, where do they put their money? They reinvest their money into low risk assets. NYSE:KR stock recently fired off a signal for a great buy opportunity . That's because Kroger represents Consumer Defensive stock sector and money has been flowing in from all the risk assets selling. And indeed, we can see that since November 22 stock gained around 25% in price. Now it is making all time highs, while all major indexes are nowhere near their tops. As the cycle continues, money will outflow from the stock, which will cause it to retrace back. But do not forget that Kroger is an established business with decent earnings and a long history of dividend payments. It won't crash like tech stocks tend to do. Instead, it will retrace to around 40-43 level. And when the tech recovers and we reach peak of bullish euphoria once again, just buy some Kroger stock . Trade wisely and good luck! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer!!! This is not financial advise
NYSE:KR
by AyBe_Invest
#MSFT perfect dip buying opportunity Microsoft as you see in the chart was clearly affected by the wild week we had of trading this past week but it has presented us with a perfect dip buy opportunity if you notice the last candle in the chart has a super long wick on the bottom side showing us that although sellers are in control buyers are rejecting lower prices plus we also are getting a nice bounce off the cloud ema. Part of this dip has to do with the pull back the market had but also the CEO selling a significant amount of shares but either way i still see #MSFT having a 4 in the front of it in the near future.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by Stock_Hustle21