ATAT: Breakout and RetestAbout Atour
Atour operates an asset-light, franchise-oriented hotel business model, primarily using a "manachised" approach where franchisees handle capital expenditures while Atour provides management, branding, and technology, supplemented by retail integration within hotel spaces.
What I like
- I remain very bullish over China stocks, as you can tell from my stock picks recently. There is a change in technical chart (HSI above weekly 200sma) and Xi government has increasingly showed interests in reviving China economy, be it more spending or talking to its leaders like Jack Ma. I think this bull run will last, and I will keep building up my positions in Chinese stocks
- Atour being IPO stock has crazy growth rates. 40% YoY over most metrics. And what's crazy is that Atour is asset light! It doesn't build hotels! They just provide management, and integrate retail within the hotel spaces. Super scalable.
- Cup and handle breakout and now retesting.
Trade plan
- Entered a small size. Intend to keep building on it as it acts right.
- Holding period can be months
Growth
American Airlines | AAL | Long at $13.34As the Great American Wealth Transfer happens, people are using that money to travel more (after all, few can afford to transfer that wealth into real estate). Airline data show passenger counts are increasing rapidly and with airfares expected to rise, this sector is likely to go through a long-awaited boom cycle.
Those following me know I am heavily long in airlines, cruise lines, and travel companies. With today's dip, and the long-term historical moving average starting to show upward momentum, American Airlines NASDAQ:AAL is in a personal buy zone at $13.34. A further dip to $11.00 to close the daily price gaps is also where I will be adding more.
Targets:
$15.00
$18.00
JD.COM - we had amazing earnings, waiting for the yearly report!JD.com is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 financial results on March 6, 2025.Analysts are optimistic about the company's performance, with several key indicators pointing toward positive growth:
Earnings Projections:
Earnings Per Share (EPS): The consensus estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.85, reflecting an increase from last year's $0.73 for the same period.
Revenue Growth: Projections indicate a year-over-year revenue growth of approximately 6.61%, with expected revenues rising from $43.11 billion to $45.96 billion.
Analyst Ratings:
Strong Buy Recommendation: Based on evaluations from nine analysts, JD.com has received a consensus rating of "Strong Buy," underscoring confidence in the company's growth trajectory.
Future Outlook:
Earnings Growth: Forecasts suggest JD.com's earnings will grow by 13% per annum, with an anticipated EPS growth rate of 12.8% annually.
Revenue Projections: The company's revenue is expected to increase by 5.6% per year, indicating sustained business expansion.
These positive indicators reflect JD.com's robust market position and its potential for continued growth in the upcoming earnings release.
Entry: 42.00
Target 70.00
GBP/USD Kicking Off March 2025 and Ending Q1Monthly View:
The February monthly candle closed bullish, remaining within the Buy Side Imbalance (BISI) formed in November, which is still being respected.
Liquidity was swept in January, indicating that price is still being magnetized towards the imbalance and the level of 1.2800.
I anticipate that price might trade below the monthly close before making an upward move.
Weekly View:
The weekly candle closed bearish and tapped into a weekly BISI at 1.2560, where a reaction could occur.
My main focus is on the daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) at 1.2550, which could act as the final support before targeting 1.2700 and possibly higher.
Note that after recent meetings, the dollar strengthened, causing price to drop and leaving behind a daily sell-side inefficiency. I would like to see price fill this inefficiency before taking out liquidity at 1.2550 and 1.2800.
Daily View:
The daily FVG at 1.2550 is crucial and could be the final support level before targeting 1.2700 and potentially higher.
4-Hour View:
There is a bearish FVG and liquidity at 1.2645, which might influence price movements.
1-Hour View:
The 1-hour chart is heavily bearish and currently in a Sell Side Imbalance (SISI) that might drive the price lower at the open.
I expect price to potentially take out 1.2550 and find support at 1.2530 before heading upwards.
Keep an eye on upcoming news this week including nfp
Key Levels to Watch:
1.2800 (monthly target)
1.2560 (weekly BISI)
1.2550 (daily FVG and potential support)
1.2645 (4-hour bearish FVG and liquidity)
1.2550 and 1.2530 (1-hour support levels)
Expect ENPH breakout by EOY 2025. Buy <$60Trends:
- LT parallel channel shown marks some key trendlines for the company since IPO
- LT falling wedge intersects the bottom of this channel H2 2025 --> a buying opportunity above $50. If that breaks, falling wedge ends around $35, a 30% downside (or 40% vs today's price).
- The early 2023 peak aligned with peak in revenue and net income (decline matched stock decline). We're now seeing revenue and net income growth again (growth can bring back stock growth)
My Bias:
I'm a long-term believer in solar. ENPH plays mostly in the residential solar space (and is expanding into small commercial). They are often lauded for their high levels of customer service.
Investment Thesis:
We're back to financial growth but the stock is down. We're in a few months window before LT trends converge mid / H2 2025. If we break bullish from falling wedge and hit LOWEST point of parallel channel by EOY 2026, we'd be at $70/share (16% upside from $60; 40% upside from $50). This is my expected worst case scenario, meaning anything under $60/share is now a buying opportunity.
Target $95-125 entry for LT investmentTechnicals and Fundamentals
- Divergence marked the top
- 50-60% pull-backs common --> $95 or $120
- Revenue growing YoY (and backlog is not fully dependent on Ukraine)
- Broke below 3-year trendline since 2022 lows, next long-term trendline support at 9-year trendline (also near $95)
- 30-40% gross margins. Lower Net income margins (as investing in growth: acquiring Blue Halo, building new facility in Salt Lake City)
Headwinds:
- Watch March 4th earnings. I expect disappointment (per Ukraine/US difficulties)
- Dependent on government purchases "you only have 1 customer in this market" - CEO quote. This is concerning in light of DOGE. However, AVAV could be a winner of shift to UAVs (and cheaper warfare technology in general)
Investment Thesis:
AVAV is investing in the future with M&A and construction of new facilities. It's revenue is growing steadily and the firm has high future earnings potential. The stock is down big from the war 'bubble' popping, but history shows 50-60% corrections are common, which would align with technical support at or above ~$95. Therefore, I see this move downward as a great buying opportunity for long-term (5+ year) investments. Will target entries $95-125, with focus around 200W MA.
US100 (NASDAQ) - Potential Trend Reversal & Bullish Breakout SetMarket Outlook:
The US100 index has been in a strong downtrend, as seen in the descending channel (yellow). However, price action is showing early signs of a potential reversal, with a breakout from the bearish structure. This presents a high-probability bullish opportunity for traders.
Technical Analysis:
✅ Downtrend Channel Breakout: The index has moved out of the bearish structure, signaling a potential upside move.
✅ Key Support Zone: $20,200 - $20,250 has provided strong buying pressure, preventing further downside.
✅ Entry & Target: Price has broken out around $20,856, aiming for the $22,025 target, which aligns with key resistance.
✅ Bullish Momentum Confirmation: A move above $21,000 could further confirm the bullish reversal.
Trade Setup:
🔹 Entry Point: $20,856 (Active trade)
🔹 Target Level: $22,025
🔹 Stop Loss: Below $20,236 (Support zone)
🔹 Risk/Reward Ratio: Favorable setup
Fundamental Factors to Watch:
Tech Sector Performance: The US100 is heavily influenced by tech stocks, and any bullish sentiment in the sector could push the index higher.
Economic Data Releases: Watch for upcoming job reports, inflation data, and Fed comments that could impact price action.
Market Sentiment: If broader indices show strength, expect bullish continuation.
Conclusion:
The US100 is in an active bullish setup, with a breakout from the downtrend. If momentum sustains, we could see $22,025 tested soon. Traders should monitor price action around resistance for confirmation of further upside.
📌 Bullish breakout in play! Keep an eye on market conditions and manage risk effectively! 🚀
Nextdoor Holdings | NEXT | Long at $1.75If you have ever been on Nextdoor NYSE:KIND , then you are aware of how many people are addicted to local news, drama, and crime watching. Add AI to this mix, and I only see growth with this company (if the company manages it correctly). While other social media platforms like X, Meta NASDAQ:META , Rumble NASDAQ:RUM , Reddit NYSE:RDDT , etc are focused on world news and drama, the niche with NYSE:KIND is unique. User growth will mean everything in the long-term (Q4, 2024 - total weekly active users was 45.9 million, which was an increase of 10% year-over-year).
I was hoping to enter after the most recent earnings call since I anticipated a major drop to close the large price gap below $2.00 (the company is developing the "Next" platform to enhance user growth and revenue (anticipated release is mid-2025) which will hit earnings). Maybe this platform will be a dud since the company has been hush about it, but it least shows a plan for growth and engagement.
At $2.75, NYSE:KIND is in a personal buy-zone. I'm prepared for a bumpy ride... the $1 zone or under isn't out of question - reason this is a "starter" position.
Targets:
$2.00
$2.25
$2.45
Where Did Altcoin Season Go?Ah, Altcoin Season —that magical time when every random token is supposed to skyrocket, turning you from an average investor into a crypto mogul overnight. At least, that’s what the hype says.
Yet, despite endless Twitter (sorry, X) posts and YouTube thumbnails screaming, "It's coming! Any day now!", it still hasn't arrived.
So, let’s cut through the noise and ask the real question: Why didn’t Altcoin Season happen?
________________________________________
1. Everyone Was Expecting It—But Someone Was Selling
There’s an unwritten rule in financial markets: When everyone expects something to happen, it probably won’t.
Every self-proclaimed crypto guru has been yelling: "Altseason is here! 100x! To the moon!"
Meanwhile, someone was selling.
Instead of an explosive rally, we got some pumps followed by brutal sell-offs. Why? Because while retail traders were waiting for liftoff, big players were cashing out quietly. Someone always has to be the exit liquidity.
________________________________________
2. The Market Is Not the Same as 5 Years Ago
Just because Altcoin Season happened in 2017 or 2020 doesn't mean it will play out the same way again.
The crypto market has changed dramatically:
• No more reckless retail FOMO throwing money at anything with a flashy logo.
• Institutions have entered the space—but they don’t care about low-cap moonshots.
• Liquidity is more concentrated—Bitcoin and a handful of top coins dominate the inflows.
Altcoin Season thrived when everyday investors piled into random projects without thinking. But after multiple crashes and rug pulls, that blind optimism has vanished.
________________________________________
3. Projects Make Promises, But Don’t Deliver (Shocking, Right?)
Let’s be honest: Who makes the most money in crypto projects? Right—the developers.
Every market cycle, we get new buzzwords: DeFi revolutions, AI-blockchain fusion, metaverse takeovers… but what actually happens?
• Fancy whitepapers, vague roadmaps—but great marketing.
• Tokenomics built to enrich insiders, not retail investors.
• Initial hype, then a slow decline—until the next trendy project appears.
At this point, we all know only a tiny fraction of altcoins provide real innovation. Without real progress, there’s no fuel for a true Altcoin Season.
________________________________________
So… Is Altcoin Season Dead?
Not necessarily. But it’s no longer a guaranteed, predictable event. The expectations have changed.
• Without new retail money flooding in, who’s pumping these coins?
• With Bitcoin dominance high, who’s paying attention to altcoins?
• If most new projects exist to enrich devs, why would an altseason even happen?
Instead of waiting for a mythical altcoin boom, maybe the smarter move is to ask yourself:
Am I investing in a solid project, or am I just hoping to be "the lucky one" who catches the next 100x?
Either way, good luck with your HODLing—and with those "If I had just invested $100 at that price..." screenshots.
Salesforce - Integration of AI with great earnings = growth!Hi guys today we would be looking into Salesforce - with the upcomming Q4 earnings report it's expected for some great growth : Fundamentals below -
Salesforce is poised for a promising earnings report, reflecting its robust performance and strategic advancements. In the third quarter, the company reported an 8% year-over-year revenue increase to $9.44 billion, surpassing analysts' expectations. This growth is attributed to strong client spending on its enterprise cloud services and data cloud, driven by the integration of artificial intelligence to streamline corporate workflows.
The introduction of Agentforce 2.0, an advanced version of its AI agent program, allows users to deploy AI agents within the Slack app and includes enhanced features such as improved reasoning, integration, and customization. The full release is expected in February 2025. Wall Street has responded positively, with analysts maintaining optimistic projections. Salesforce plans to hire 2,000 people to promote its AI software, countering the industry trend of layoffs due to the high costs of AI projects. Salesforce's stock surged by 11% after the initial announcement and has risen 33% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500. Analysts anticipate continued investor enthusiasm and potential gains of up to $80 per share as more businesses adopt the platform.
Analysts are optimistic about Salesforce's financial outlook. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has raised the Q1 2026 earnings estimate to $1.90 per share, up from the prior estimate of $1.88, maintaining an "Outperform" rating with a $375 price target.
The consensus estimate for Salesforce’s current full-year earnings is $7.48 per share.
The company's stock performance has been strong, with shares trading at $361.99 as of the latest report. The stock has a market cap of $346.06 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 59.54, and a beta of 1.30. The business has a 50-day simple moving average of $309.97 and a two-hundred day simple moving average of $272.88.
In summary, Salesforce's strategic focus on AI integration, strong financial performance, and positive market reception position the company for continued success in the upcoming earnings report.
Target: 365 - Just below the ATH so we can have some protection of the trade
SL: 294 - just below the formulated GAP which we covered
Applied Materials | AMAT | Long at $169.75Republican Ashley Moody recently dropped $200k-$500k on Applied Materials $NASDAQ:AMAT. The semiconductor boom may not be over...
Price-to-earnings: 21.68x (great in comparison to others...)
Debt-to-equity: 0.34x (low)
Cash flow: $10.4 billion (FY2024)
Insiders awarded options recently
Unless NASDAQ:NVDA brings the market down, NASDAQ:AMAT is in a personal buy zone at $169.75. While the price may dip in the near-term to the $140s, bullish until the semi boom dies...
Targets:
$195.00
$215.00
$240.00
Ethena $ENA is Heating Up – Institutional AdoptionThis weeek, Ethena Labs and its synthetic stablecoin USDe have been making waves in the crypto space.
Here’s what’s happening:
1. Massive $100M Funding Round in Dec 2024 reveald
Ethena raised $100M in a private sale of BINANCE:ENAUSDT tokens to support its new blockchain for TradFi institutions.
Key investors: Franklin Templeton & F-Prime Capital (Fidelity’s VC arm).
The private sale was reportedly completed in December 2024, offering Ethena’s eponymous governance token, BINANCE:ENAUSDT , to investors at an average price of $0.40.
New product launch: iUSDe, a stablecoin designed specifically for institutional finance.
Why it matters: This signals deepening TradFi interest in crypto-native stablecoins. If major financial firms are getting involved, it suggests long-term strategic positioning.
2. MEXC Drops $20M on USDe – Plus $1M in Rewards
MEXC acquired $20M in USDe to promote stablecoin adoption.
$1M reward campaign launched to incentivize staking & usage.
MEXC Ventures also invested $16M in Ethena Labs to support ecosystem growth.
Why it matters: Exchanges are not just listing USDe—they’re actively acquiring it and pushing incentives to drive adoption. This could significantly increase its market presence vs. USDT & USDC.
3. Risk Management Upgrade – Chaos Labs’ Oracles
Ethena integrated Chaos Labs’ Edge Proof of Reserves Oracles.
Goal: Enhance transparency and independent verification of USDe reserves.
Comes right after USDe volatility due to Bybit’s $1.5B ETH hack.
Why it matters: Ethena is addressing concerns about reserve security & DeFi transparency, which could attract more institutional capital.
4. Partnership with Trump’s World Liberty Financial (WLFI)
Ethena’s sUSDe stablecoin will serve as a collateral asset for WLFI.
WLFI is backed by Trump’s family and allies, positioning itself as a “Made in USA” financial platform.
Aave’s risk assessment approved sUSDe, increasing its legitimacy.
Why it matters: This could bring Ethena closer to regulatory approval and Republican-friendly financial networks, boosting its institutional credibility in the US.
Key Market Reactions & Speculation
USDe supply is nearing 6B, making it the 3rd largest stablecoin after USDT & USDC.
ENA price surged 8.5% in 24 hours, as whales accumulate.
Some speculate big investors are positioning ahead of major announcements.
Final Thoughts – What’s Next?
BINANCE:ENAUSDT has dropped to $0.40 – exactly the private sale price from December 2024, where institutional investors like Franklin Templeton & F-Prime Capital (Fidelity VC) entered.
Why This Level Matters:
Final Weekly FVG (Fair Value Gap) support zone – macro trend remains intact if it holds.
Institutional break-even level – smart money doesn’t like losing; potential for re-accumulation.
iUSDe Launch Coming Soon – a major narrative driver for the ecosystem.
USDe adoption & integrations expanding (Chaos Labs oracles, WLFI partnership, MEXC buy-in).
If a major listing or ETF tie-in happens, ENA could explode—but if USDe faces regulatory pressure, we might see a harsh correction.
Risks:
Still, USDe is NOT a fiat-backed stablecoin. Its yield model (9%) and DeFi integration mean risks remain.
How to Play This?
Option 1: DCA Now – Accumulate here while price stabilizes in the demand zone.
Option 2: Wait for LTF Range – Look for deviations & liquidity sweeps before confirming re-accumulation.
Block | XYZ | Long at $64.84Block's NYSE:XYZ revenue is anticipated to grow from $24 billion in FY2024 to $32 billion in FY2027. With a current price-to-earnings ratio of 13.8x, debt-to-equity ratio of 0.36x, and rising cash flow in the billions, it's a decent value stock at its current price. Understandably, there is some hesitation among investors due to competitive fintech market and economic headwinds. But, like PayPal NASDAQ:PYPL , growth is building.
From a technical analysis perspective, the price dropped to within my historical simple moving average bands. Often, but not always, this signals a momentum change and the historical simple moving average lines indicate an upward change may be ahead. While the open price gaps on the daily chart in the $40s and GETTEX:50S may be closed before a true move up occurs, NYSE:XYZ is in a personal buy zone at $64.84.
Targets:
$80.00
$90.00
$100.00
[*) $134.00 (very long-term)
Fiverr International | FVRR | Long at $26.32If AI/AGI is really taking our jobs, the gig economy will prosper... right?
While Fiverr International's NYSE:FVRR market cap is just under a billion, the company has experienced significant revenue growth since 2019. Earnings grew by 395.7% over the past year and are forecast to grow 24.68% per year. Cash flow is also expected to rise. The company has a low float (30.4M) but a price-to-earnings of 52x (caution). While competition in the gig economy is tough (I see you NASDAQ:UPWK ), NYSE:FVRR may be gaining upward momentum as the stock starts to bottom in the near-term. The price gaps on the daily chart near $20 and $22 may be closed before a strong move up, but the price is now consolidating within my historical simple moving average. When this happens, often (but not always), the ticker will trade sideways for a while before reversing up.
Thus, at $26.32, NYSE:FVRR is in a personal buy zone.
Targets
$34.00
$40.00
Is $GERN a stock for "Strong Holders"?Or is it just another stock whose value will be wiped out in the next few quarters, and the company will simply lose its listing on the Nasdaq?
Investors are likely to get an answer to this question today, before the market opens, when NASDAQ:GERN reports its quarterly earnings.
The company has an approved drug and has already begun commercialization, with a promising start.
Last quarter, the company generated $28 million in revenue, and this quarter, revenue is expected to reach $61.8 million.
The company has already achieved positive gross margins, and I expect them to improve significantly from the current 27% in the last quarter.
Operating expenses are close to $30 million per quarter, so we can expect a quick path to operating profitability.
Invested capital is around $135 million, which means that with an operating profit of $10 million per quarter, we could see interesting returns on invested capital.
The company is led by John A. Scarlett, M.D., who previously worked at NASDAQ:CTMX for six years, during which the company lost about 90% of its value.
There is some positive news regarding European approval: "The Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use of the European Medicines Agency has issued a positive opinion." A decision is expected in the coming months, if not days, which should serve as a strong catalyst for the stock price.
The market valuation has dropped to $1.4 billion, despite having an FDA-approved drug in the U.S.
Cash reserves will be important as they indicate how much time the company has to develop without diluting its capital. In the last report, cash and short-term investments totaled $339 million, and on November 7, the company announced securing $250 million in funding, with the potential to increase it to $375 million.
As a result, the company has $589 million in cash reserves minus operating cash flow. How much will remain in the coffers?
The company should have enough cash for more than 12 months of successful operations, operational efficiency is improving, we are awaiting European approval, and only the quality of management raises doubts.
But do these doubts really hold weight given the current trajectory?
There are only a few hours left until the earnings report is released. Let's see what awaits us.
Strong Holders
Profiting From Strength
📉✊📈
(ETH) ethereumWhen can we expect to see reports on the new concepts about Ethereum in the future?
Buying mode, price of Ethereum well under the dotted line. Ethereum has not had a strong position for some time and is likely to find profits. One large drop in price does not usually follow another than another than another and especially not with such large volume and capital. Am I in control of the flow, no. Do I have billions to make heavy movements, no. Am I interested in the progress of Ethereum despite holding little to no value in Ethereum, yes.
The secret of trading is to be cowardly when others are greedyFor over 96 days now, Bitcoin has been planning a precise accumulation process, a process that initially managed to undermine quite a few of us, but at the current point, it appears to be a precise accumulation point after a second low, which appears to be a shakeout after strong and accelerated attempts to lower the price downwards. This is currently not visible on the horizon. The relative strength index is very low in all time intervals and combined with a very strong fundamental environment for the crypto market, it seems that the road to all-time highs is closer than ever.
HAL NV: Unlocking Hidden Value in a Discounted InvestmentCurrent Price: Approximately €117.40 per share
Target Price: €150 per share
HAL NV (traded via HAL Trust) has long been recognized as a unique investment vehicle, thanks to its diversified portfolio of high-quality assets. Despite a current trading level around €117.40, a closer look at the underlying holdings and operational performance reveals a significant value gap—one that suggests the stock should be priced nearer to €150.
Key Holdings and Their Strengths
Boskalis – A Fully Owned Flagship
• 100% Ownership: HAL NV owns Boskalis outright, giving it full exposure to the maritime and offshore construction market.
• Robust Order Books: Boskalis benefits from a full order book, which not only secures future revenues but also demonstrates strong market positioning.
• Operational Efficiency: With steady execution in its core business, Boskalis adds both resilience and growth potential to HAL’s overall portfolio.
SBM Offshore – Secure Order Pipeline
• Substantial Stake (22.9%): While not fully owned, SBM Offshore represents a key component in HAL’s strategy.
• Solid Order Books: Like Boskalis, SBM Offshore’s strong order backlog underscores its ability to generate future cash flow.
• Strategic Exposure: The offshore energy market, driven by both traditional and renewable energy projects, positions SBM Offshore for long-term growth.
Vopak – Consistent Performer with Upward Trends
• Major Stake (51.4%): HAL’s significant interest in Vopak captures exposure to the global tank storage and logistics sector.
• Earnings Fluctuation, But Upward Trend: Although Vopak’s earnings can fluctuate year over year, the overall trend has been strongly positive, reinforcing its role as a reliable income generator.
Additional Growth Catalysts
• Coolblue (56.4%) & TKH Group (5.2%): These holdings further diversify HAL’s portfolio, offering exposure to high-growth sectors such as retail technology and industrial services.
The Valuation Gap: NAV vs. Market Price
One of the most compelling aspects of HAL NV is the notable discrepancy between its Net Asset Value (NAV) and its market capitalization:
NAV Insight: Recent reports and annual filings suggest that the NAV per share of HAL’s underlying assets is approximately €165.95.
Market Discount: Trading at around €117.40, HAL NV is effectively offered at a significant discount. This “hidden value” implies that the market has yet to fully recognize the aggregate worth of its high-quality investments.
Equity vs. Market Cap: With the equity value of its portfolio (including fully consolidated companies like Boskalis and the robust valuations from quoted holdings such as Vopak and SBM Offshore) substantially higher than the current market cap, the potential for upward re-rating is evident.
Hal NV is poised for robust long‐term growth, with annual rates expected to reach around 15%. This optimism is driven by strong demand for the services of Boskalis and SBM Offshore, both of which continue to benefit from substantial order books. Additionally, the accelerated growth of Coolblue and the steady, consistent performance of Vopak—bolstered by emerging opportunities in India—further enhance the outlook. Coupled with a conservative balance sheet that ensures a low cost of capital, these factors collectively support the company’s promising growth trajectory.
Catalysts for Price Convergence
Several factors support the rationale for a price target of €150:
Strong Order Books: Both Boskalis and SBM Offshore are backed by extensive order books, which not only secure future revenue streams but also reduce operational risks.
Consistent Growth Trends: Vopak, despite some earnings volatility, has demonstrated a significant long-term upward trend in earnings—enhancing the overall stability of HAL’s portfolio.
Undervalued Underlying Assets: The current market price does not fully reflect the NAV derived from HAL’s diverse investments. As market sentiment improves and the intrinsic value becomes more widely recognized, a re-rating toward the NAV is likely.
Favorable Valuation Metrics: HAL NV’s relatively low Price/Earnings ratio compared to its growth prospects and asset quality makes it an attractive buy for value-oriented investors.
Conclusion
HAL NV represents an intriguing investment opportunity—a trust whose market price currently undervalues a robust portfolio of operationally strong and strategically significant companies. With full control over Boskalis and solid stakes in SBM Offshore and Vopak, combined with additional growth prospects from Coolblue and TKH Group, the underlying equity far exceeds the current market valuation. In essence, if the market were to recognize the full value of these assets, a price target of €150 per share appears not only justified but highly attainable.
Investors looking for a value play in the industrial and investment holding space should keep a close eye on HAL NV, as the convergence of market price to NAV could deliver significant upside potential.
Note: The analysis above is based on current market data (price ≈ €117.40) and recent annual reports, and reflects the author’s view on the intrinsic value of HAL NV. Investors should perform their own due diligence before making any investment decisions.
Bausch + Lomb | BLCO | Long at $16.02Bausch + Lomb NYSE:BLCO , a strong name in the eye health world, is trading within my historical simple moving average area and appears to be gaining upward momentum. I usually do not like to enter companies this earlier (more data is always better), but this company has very strong earnings and a solid track record. Earnings are forecasted to grow 57% per year and it's trading at a good value compared to its peers (price-to-book: 0.87x, price-to-sales: 1.17x). Low debt-to-equity (0.74x). Product exposure is across the globe and revenue was $4.8 billion in FY2024. Profitability has fluctuated over the years, and tariffs or other global trade issues are always a concern. Also, it's very early in this stock's history to gauge future performance. I would not exclude a call to the $14.00 area in the near-term, so there absolutely risks with this pick.
But, at $16.02, NYSE:BLCO is in a personal buy zone.
Targets:
$17.50
$20.00