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2024 ADP Jobs Created Overstated by Near 550K?Recently, the September ADP Employment Report was published. (You can download historical data from the link above.) After the report was released, TVC:DXY , TVC:US02Y , TVC:US10Y , and TVC:US30Y rose, suggesting that the market perceived the report as strong. However, the details of the report tell me the opposite. Note, the data being published is seasonally adjusted (SA). However, it is possible to obtain the raw, non-seasonally adjusted (non-SA) data from the website above. I calculated the number of jobs created from the beginning of the year until September (inclusive) for both non-SA and SA data and determined the differences between these two values. You can find my spreadsheet here: www.icloud.com A screenshot of the results is also shown in the chart. As you can see, in typical years, the difference between jobs created from the start of the year through September for non-SA and SA is around 1.1M . Non-SA figures are usually higher because the last quarter tends to be weak for job creation. However, 2024 is quite different. The 2024 SA total jobs created is larger than expected by about 550K jobs . If we adjust by removing 550K reported SA jobs from 2024, the difference between non-SA and SA jobs would become approximately 1.1M, which is typical for a regular year. Why is this significant? Many indicators suggest that the U.S. economy is nearing a recession. Thus, this unusual job creation pattern is very suspicious. The published SA ADP employment numbers may be masking underlying economic weakness. Even with rate cut(s), I expect that the last quarter of 2024 will be weaker for job creation compared to a typical year. Therefore, I anticipate significant revisions to ADP employment data around December or January.
ECONOMICS:USEC
by eugene_sea
Tesla on the Way to new all time High ............ (!)NASDAQ:TSLA Tesla bounced of 200 at upper line of Blue Megaphone pattern und ist now in the most important Elliott Wave: (3) of iii of 3 - THE MOST IMPORTAMT WAVE NOW - Almost nothing can stop now Tesla from Doing a NEW ALLTIME HIGH later ...! Especially when we go above green line, which is NECKLINE of INVERSE HEAD&SHOULDER ...... which points to 25% HIGHER THAN OLD ALL TIME HIGH! When I look at all this, I must assume that coming Robotaxi Event in LA at 10/10/24 will bring a lot of news, which gives Tesla another boooooooost higher !???!
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by Rolixc
BLZE Back on Track: Strong Sales Growth and Effective LeadershiBackblaze is a company specializing in cloud backup and storage services. Founded in 2007 and based in San Mateo, California, it offers a range of services that include backup solutions for personal computers and servers, as well as large-scale storage solutions for businesses. The company went public on the Nasdaq stock exchange under the ticker BLZE on November 11, 2021. Backblaze focuses on cloud backup and storage services with two core products: **Backblaze Personal Backup** and **Backblaze B2 Cloud Storage**. The first product offers unlimited, automatic backup for personal computers, while the second provides large-scale cloud storage solutions for businesses, including big data storage, archival backup, and file preservation. Backblaze delivers accessible, reliable, and affordable cloud solutions, emphasizing ease of use, transparent pricing, and comprehensive backup features designed to ensure users' data is always protected and available. Backblaze differentiates itself from competitors in several key ways: 1. **Low cost and full pricing transparency**: While many competitors offer complex pricing structures and hidden fees, Backblaze is known for its affordable and transparent pricing, allowing users to understand their costs upfront. ### Market Valuation of the Cloud Storage Industry in Recent Years: - **2019**: The global cloud storage market was valued at approximately $46.12 billion (GlobeNewswire). - **2020**: The market grew to around $55.6 billion, largely due to the increasing shift to remote work caused by the COVID-19 pandemic (GlobeNewswire). - **2021**: The market continued to expand, reaching a value of around $67.9 billion (Acumen Research and Consulting, GlobeNewswire). - **2022**: The market value reached approximately $96.16 billion (GlobeNewswire). - **2023**: The market stood at around $101.43 billion (GlobeNewswire). Projections indicate that in 2024, the market will grow to around $132.03 billion, and by 2032, it is expected to reach $665 billion, with an average annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 21.8% between 2024 and 2032 (Acumen Research and Consulting, GlobeNewswire). At the most recent investor meeting, **Gleb Budman**, CEO of Backblaze, reiterated the company’s ongoing commitment to leading the cloud storage market. Budman highlighted Backblaze’s impressive growth and the importance of investing in innovation and advanced technologies to enhance services and performance. He emphasized that the company aims to achieve positive cash flow by mid-2025, with plans to expand into new markets, including enterprise sectors and increasing its presence in international markets (Backblaze, Inc.). *The information presented here is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities.*
NASDAQ:BLZELong
by Yan_Elrod
Dropbox's Next Upload: Eyes $33 with Momentum and GrowthDropbox (DBX) is building strong bullish momentum, after the potential to fill a gap at the $23.00 level. A break through the $25 resistance level would signal further strength, propelling the stock toward the $28.00 weekly resistance. From there, the next target is the monthly resistance level at $33.00. With an attractive 4.14 risk-to-reward ratio, this setup provides a compelling opportunity for traders to capture upside while managing downside risk with a stop-loss at $23.40. Dropbox’s focus on enhancing its cloud storage and collaboration tools, along with its growing presence in the enterprise market, reinforces the case for long-term bullish potential. As businesses continue to rely on cloud solutions, DBX is well-positioned to capitalize on this growing trend, making the $33 target a realistic goal. NASDAQ:DBX
NASDAQ:DBXLong
by The_Trading_Mechanic
Eyes on the Road: Gearing Up for a Bullish Drive to $23.49MBLY is gaining bullish momentum, with the potential to fill the bullish gap around the $11.75 level. A test or fill at this level could serve as a strong support base for the stock to push toward the key weekly resistance at $23.49. With a favorable 6.53 risk-to-reward ratio, this setup offers an attractive opportunity for traders to capture significant upside, while managing risk with a stop-loss at $9.93. As MBLY continues to lead in advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous vehicle technology, the growing demand in the autonomous driving sector further strengthens the case for long-term bullish potential. MBLY technicals and industry position make it well-positioned for a push to $23.49. NASDAQ:MBLY
NASDAQ:MBLYLong
by The_Trading_Mechanic
Alpha Group - What next post-earnings and CEO sucession plan?My take on Alpha Group: Alpha Group LSE:ALPH leads, in my view, as the UK's best FXRM firm, and institutional lending provider. What most lenders don't do is take a mixed approach - both expertise and technology when developing and implementing their services. From a macro perspective, Alpha Group provide stronger growth prospects than peers, as well as higher margins. They are continuously making large investments into their infrastructure, expanding their already strong platform. Analysts ests. momentum continues to be strong, due to the cheap valuation (despite the inflated NII). The acquisition of Cobase had provided an additional vector of growth for the company, and will continue to do so into the future. Presently, and historically, Alpha Group have always displayed a super solid balance sheet, indicating mgmt. are in control. Buybacks are continuous, with £20m now completed in this year alone, leaving them with a huge cash position, over £180m. And, as we all know by know, interest rates are dropping globally! Slowly, but surely, we will come down to a more modest cost of borrowing, and Alpha Group are a major beneficiary of this. 4th September 2024 - 1H24 results • Total income up 19% yoy to £107m. Revenues at £64m, a 16% yoy rise. 1H underlying EBITDA @ £25.3m (39.4% margin), surpassing PH’s estimate of £23.3m. • Additionally, an increase in net client additions and revenue per client. Corporate FXRM client base grew by 9% yoy, and institutional FX client numbers rose 11% yoy. • Cash up again! Now sitting on £180m at the end of the first half. Buyback on track, now with £20m completed. • As at 04/09, trading at approx. 6x ‘25e EV/EBITDA and an 8% FCF yield, still suggesting good valuation for buying. 10th September 2024 - CEO Transition & Succession - Alpha Group announced today that Morgan Tillbrook, CEO, has decided to step down from his duties at the company. - He will continue his role up until the end of the calendar year, where he will then be succeeded by Clive Khan. - Clive is currently Chairman at Alpha Group and is also the CEO of takepayments. takepayments was recently acquired by Global Payments NYSE:GPN , which I believe provides perfect timing for Clive to step down as CEO and step up for the role at Alpha Group. - With over 30 years in the FX and payments industry, there's no real better option than Clive, as his philosophy is almost identical to Morgan's. - He transformed takepayments from a failing bill payments business into one of the leading card acceptance businesses in the UK. As for Morgan, he too has a history of angel investing. - I anticipated a potential move for Morgan, as his long history of angel investing gave me a "heads up" to his absence. - At the open on the 10th, the markets felt disappointed and surprised, causing the stock to drop c.10% on the day. - However, Morgan made absolutely clear in his formal announcement that he will be leaving the business primed for further exponential growth and equipped with a robust business model. He emphasised that Alpha Group cannot be left in better hands than Clive, and I believe there is no reason to expect a rough transition in the step-up for him.
ALong
by FytaLO
BYD - What next post-earnings and the BoC's stimulus?HKEX:1211 has had a strong year in growth prospects, reporting solid earnings growth thanks to its robust EV sales and expanding footprint in international markets. The recent earnings beat highlighted an impressive increase in revenue, driven by the demand for both their electric and hybrid vehicles. But what we can notice is that the stock has only reflected this as a c.16% rise in price YTD. However, the question now is: where does BYD go from here? - More recently, the BoC's latest stimulus measures, including rate cuts and support for the real estate sector, could indirectly benefit BYD. With increased liquidity and consumer confidence, domestic demand for EV's could rise, especially if coupled with additional green energy incentives. - As for the earnings release, the markets reacted well, and with this new-found optimism in the markets, with both the SEE Composite Index SSE:000001 and the Hang Seng Index TVC:HSI up 5.78% and 9.28% in the past 5 days, is this the turn-around for China as a whole?
HKEX:1211Long
by FytaLO
1
Long term $180-$190 target. More downside likely short term.I think short term we can see a final push down. Company has way to much in OP EX and once it can figure out how to remove/cut the amount in half, this stock will show to investors that it has a plan for long term profitable growth. Question is, which earnings report will it be and/or will they release news on lay offs once unemployment really spikes. BUY THIS STOCK IN MY PINK ZONE AND HOLD 2-5 YEARS. my main concern right now is AI hype flushing down and/or there cash on hand and free cash flow continues on its down trend...
NYSE:SNOWLong
by LeapTrades
BEARISH PLOTTER READER! (2HR TF)Good Day Traders I wanted to use a higher timeframe, but the two-hour timeframe was more convenient because my bearish plotter is pointing out only the two-hour timeframe from all timeframes. This lets me know BITCOIN will make its way down for a minor trend. I've done some price range measuring. I have two custom gaps left out in the open from all three measurements. This can only work with my bearish plotter. Two red long rectangles are the left opened gaps which price can potentially hit those targets. The green gap is genuine. I drew a parallel trend line starting point from the top of the wick to the last bottom candle wick. I've measured the longest trendline and cloned it which is the most recent white parallel trendline. BITCOIN is behaving as if it wants to keep pushing up. There's no way of telling. It's pushed up in the past on a daily timeframe regardless of stochastic RSI was overbought but don't count on it. Pay attention to the most recent candlestick. The candlestick has almost filled the green gap which my custom MA has predicted an uptrend moving forward but it is just guidance. MY ADR MA, please follow it and see the way it plays out. Summary: Does this mean the price can fall to those 4 prices, it's a possibility, but so far it's touched the most recent green gap. Based on a 2-hour volume, it all makes sense. We have three levels of the highest volume. This is only a two-hour timeframe, it's just guidance by using a strategy. I had to create my own gaps. As I created them; WALA!, look at the first red gap let's see how it plays out, so don't panic. We're in a 3-YEAR BULL RUN.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by The_ForexX_Mindset
11
$AKT Cup & HandleSince September 2021, we’ve been witnessing a massive Cup and Handle pattern taking shape, signaling potential bullish momentum ahead. With the Fed’s recent 50bps cut acting as a catalyst for risk-on assets, now is the time to pay attention! As BTC dominance (BTC.D) shows signs of topping, select altcoins with genuine adoption and utility are poised for significant rallies, possibly reaching new all-time highs. Keep your eyes peeled on these emerging stars in the crypto space!
CRYPTO:AKTUSDLong
by httpz
Crude Oil long term analysis⭕WTI has taken downward trend since (18Jul 24) , Because of industrial countries had bad data and concern about suffering recession the price gone down. 🔻In the another side OPEC+ decided increaseof their supply. 🔻China's data not promising, China is the biggest importer of Oil in the world so its pridectable to effect oil price. 🟢Middle east and tension of that has no end ,Analysts alarm to happening War and Geopolitical things limtied down trend of price. 🟢Fed's recently reduced intrest rate by 0.5 which is big move since years ago ,And they decided to cutting rate by 0.25 from other meetings it mean Soft Landing , in this case it will help to US Gov' to improve the economic and WTI price mostly dependent to US economic so it will help to growth Oil price 🔵So many countries economics related together so if US ecnomy will recovery it self China , Japan , Euro zone , Australia , Canada , ..... will betterment too so if the economics of countries better so productions and output will growth that causes import Oils and counsume. ✅In my idea 66$ to 63$ very big support area and good place to order Buy. my expectation is WTI in 2025 will growth smoothly to our other targets.✔✔ 💌pls add your idea too and let me know❗❓
EASYMARKETS:OILUSD
by TheApolloo
Polkadot / DOT ( Hot or Not? )The price of DOT is $7.5 today with a 24hour trading volume of 777 million dollars. This represents a 2% price increase in the last 24 hours and a 22.00% price increase in the past 7 days Polkadot is a platform that allows diverse blockchains to transfer messages, including value, in a trust free fashion; sharing their unique features while pooling their security. In brief, Polkadot is a scalable heterogeneous multi chain technology made by Gavin Wood, Robert Habermeier and Peter Czaban. but is it hot or not? 4.5$ for Dot is a Dip and the next targets are 7.5, 7.9 and 8.3$. the next big resistance for Dot is 8.5$
Long
by moonypto
16
Palantir (PLTR) – Correction Time?Palantir ( NYSE:PLTR ) is completing a cup-and-handle pattern and is now pushing toward its all-time high of $45. However, with the RSI running hot and the 150-day moving average well below current levels, the stock looks overextended . Historically, Palantir tends to see a pullback before earnings, which could present an opportunity for a better entry point . A gap has formed below, and I expect a potential pullback to the newly created support zone at $29.50 . I believe Palantir is a strong long-term hold, but I'll be watching closely for a correction to enter around $29.51-$31.80. Do you think Palantir will continue its run to the all-time high, or will the pullback before earnings provide a better entry? How do you see the gap closure playing into the stock's momentum?
NYSE:PLTRLong
by elka_graph
15
AI-Powered Ascent: Apple’s New Siri Features Fuel PushApple is showing strong bullish momentum, positioning the stock to break through the key $237.23 resistance level and head toward the $250 target. This move is supported by the upcoming product cycle, particularly the launch of the new iPhone with AI-driven features, which is expected to drive significant consumer demand and boost the company’s revenue. For short-term traders, a stop-loss at $213 allows for a strategic entry, capturing the upside potential while managing risk effectively. In the longer term, Apple has even greater growth potential, with a target of $300 on the horizon. The company’s continuous innovations in AI, wearables, and services are anticipated to strengthen its ecosystem, setting it apart from competitors. A $195 stop-loss is suggested for those holding a long-term position, providing a safety net while allowing for upside as Apple capitalizes on the AI-driven growth in its product lines. Given the strong product refresh cycle and solid fundamentals, now is an excellent time to take advantage of Apple’s bullish momentum as it marches toward both $250 and $300 in the future. NASDAQ:AAPL
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by The_Trading_Mechanic
Touchdown Trade: PENN Entertainment Ready to Score Big at $36.90PENN Entertainment is showing strong bullish momentum, positioning the stock to push toward the critical resistance level of $36.90. With an attractive risk-to-reward ratio of 8.31 , this setup presents an excellent entry point for traders and investors looking to capitalize on its upward trajectory. The stock is gaining further momentum as football season kicks off, historically driving increased user engagement and betting activity on PENN’s platform, particularly through Barstool Sportsbook. As the company benefits from seasonal spikes in sports betting, this momentum could propel the stock toward its next major resistance. In addition to short-term seasonal tailwinds, PENN’s long-term fundamentals remain solid. The company continues to expand its sports betting and iGaming offerings across the U.S., benefiting from broader legalization efforts. Strategic partnerships and a focus on digital growth further enhance its competitive edge in the gaming industry. With strong bullish momentum and an 8.31 risk-to-reward ratio, now is an optimal time to enter the stock and ride the momentum toward the $36.90 target. NASDAQ:PENN
NASDAQ:PENNLong
by The_Trading_Mechanic
1