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⚛️Review of the CryptoGPT(GPT) Project!!!⚛️Hello, today, let's review one of the cryptocurrency projects in the field of Artificial Intelligence(AI)🤖 from the fundamental point of view. The reason for choosing this field is people's high acceptance of artificial intelligence🤖 in the new year; cryptocurrency projects also use this opportunity, but always check any project before investing💎. Today's project name is ⚛️CryptoGPT(GPT)⚛️ . As I have said before, I evaluate crypto projects based on various factors.👇 I have already introduced each of these factors with a brief explanation, so today, I will be looking at CryptoGPT(GPT). 🔥Let’s get into it: 🔰🔰🔰🔰🔰🔰 ✅ Project Goals : CryptoGPT is introduced as a ZK Layer-2, allowing you to monetize your data with AI. Well, first of all, GPT stands for Generative Pre-Trained Transformer, which is basically how an AI language like ChatGPT gets massive databases pre-trained to enhance its services. So CryptoGPT is no more related to ChatGPT than being a rip-off chasing the hype around ChatGPT. Also, well-known L2s like Arbitrum and Optimism launched their tokens after their Mainnets were up and running when the users required governance control. Whereas CryptoGPT has launched its $GPT token already and states in its roadmap that the Layer-2 Mainnet Beta will launch in Q4 of 2023. So $GPT is currently no more than an ERC-20 token. The clout chasing done by this project has made our experts score the CryptoGPT project goals 2/10. ✅ Founders : There is little information about the founders of CryptoGPT. On their main website, Jamila Jelani is listed as part of the marketing team, whereas on some unofficial websites, she's introduced as the project's founder. CryptoGPT provides an AI language model called Alex, and when I asked Alex about the founders of CryptoGPT, I got the answer: "I'm sorry, but I don't have that information. However, you can visit the CryptoGPT website or do a quick online search to find the founders' names." The fact that there is no proper information about the project's founders and the website owner is using a service to hide their identity is a huge red flag, so I have scored CryptoGPT's founders 1/10. ✅ Github : The project claims to be an AI-to-earn just like the play-to-earn games that were hyped in the crypto space during the end of 2021. Basically, how this works, according to the CryptoGPT website, is that you can turn your daily activities into data using AI and then sell it as something they call "NFT Capsules". They claim to be the only sustainable "to-earn" crypto project while also being a ZK L2 on Ethereum. But as of now, the only thing that exists is the $GPT token on Ethereum and Binance Smart Chain (BSC). There isn't a GitHub respiratory available for the project, at least none our team could find. Therefore I have scored CryptoGPT's Github 1/10. ✅ Inflation Rate : The $GPT token has a maximum supply of 3,000,000,000 (3 billion) tokens; no information is available on the circulating supply. Since there is no necessity for a project with these goals to have a token in the first place, I have scored the Inflation Rate of CryptoGPT 1/10. ✅ Community : CryptoGPT's Twitter account has 240K followers, its Telegram channel has more than 90K members, and its Discord channel has 20K members. Even though these numbers seem good for a crypto project's community, you should keep in mind that these are newly created accounts. For example, the Twitter account for CryptoGPT was created in February 2023, and gaining 240K followers in a month seems shady. That's why I scored CryptoGPT's community 4/10. ✅ Whitepaper : CryptoGPT doesn't have a Whitepaper yet and only provides a Litepaper for the project. In this Litepaper, the team states their goals and compares daily active users with other L2s on Ethereum, like Optimism and Arbitrum. The question is, how can they compare their users when the CryptoGPT Mainnet does not even exist yet? The thing about crypto projects is that they can claim to be unique and solve many issues in their Whitepaper, but the real thing is what's happening in the backend and coding of the project. Since this project doesn't have a whitepaper, I have scored CryptoGPT's Litepaper 3/10. ✅ Developers : The team only introduces 3 people as developers on their website. Of the three, only one is a backend developer, Emanuel Junior from Brazil. According to his LinkedIn profile, Emmanuel is a computer science graduate from a University in Brazil with more than 5 years of work experience. But just one developer isn't sufficient for a ZK Layer-2 since other L2s have huge teams of skilled devs working to improve their protocols. Since I couldn't find information about other devs working on CryptoGPT, I scored the developers 2/10. ✅ Tokenomics : According to CryptoGPT's Litepaper, the $GPT token distribution is as follows: 20% goes to the Public, 20% is allocated to Liquidity, Staking, and Market Makers, 3% goes towards the project's Marketing, 25% is allocated towards Data Mining Incentives, 16% for the team, 6% for partners and advisors, and 10% is allocated to a Development Reserve. But according to etherscan, the top 10 wallet addresses hold more than 85% of the $GPT token supply, which is extremely shady. That's why I have scored CryptoGPT's tokenomics 3/10. ✅ Venture Capital Investors : CryptoGPT has not done any funding rounds yet and therefore doesn't have any VC investors. The team might have decided to fund the project by selling their $GPT tokens which again is another red flag for investing in the project. This is why I have scored CryptoGPT's VC investors 1/10. ✅ Competitor Comparison : Compared to other ZK rollups on Ethereum, like Starknet and zkSync, CryptoGPT is basically already dead. Since these projects have amazing teams working on improving their projects and overcoming milestones, but a project like CryptoGPT just seems to want to use the hype around AI and ZK technology simultaneously without any actual creativity. Therefore I have scored CryptoGPT compared to its comparison 1/10. 🔔 In conclusion , CryptoGPT obtained a total score of 1.9/10. Does this score mean that the $GPT price will never rally? Definitely not. The $GPT token price can rally, but that doesn't change the project's fundamentals. Investing in CryptoGPT is extremely risky, even compared to other cryptos like Bitcoin and Ethereum. That's why if you want to invest in this project, it's best only to put in an amount you're completely comfortable with losing.
Education
by pejman_zwin
12
Crudeoil bears are working hard again, where will crudeoil fall?There may not be a shortcut to success, but there must be a way.Give up what should be given up, grasp what can be grasped; only insist on investing in your own investment standards. Yesterday's short crude oil orders reaped very good profits, and the current crude oil is creating favorable trading opportunities for us. At present, the U.S. Secretary of Energy has hinted that the country is in no hurry to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), exacerbating concerns about oversupply in the market.In addition, Russia's continued supply of crude oil to the global market has also increased the pressure on the oil market, causing oil prices to fall again. At present, crude oil has fallen as low as 66.8.Judging from the trend of crude oil, the rebound of crude oil has been blocked for two consecutive trading days, and a longer upper shadow line has been left, forming a secondary pressure, so the suppression of resistance above the 71 position is still relatively obvious.I also mentioned in my article yesterday that if oil prices are delayed in regaining the 72.4 position, there is a technical need for a second bottoming demand, which will increase the short-term bearish signal. In the short-term treatment, the upper side initially pays attention to the pressure near 69, and the lower side pays attention to the support near 66.8. In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
TVC:USOILShort
by Short-term-king
[Watch] MARA versus Bitcoin 2️⃣7️⃣| RSI building up New Day Team NASDAQ:MARA Let's congratulate the new Pine Wizards Tradingview in 2023. They have many great tools to enhance your trading and maximize every opportunity. Let me share the link with you: www.tradingview.com We now have 3 buy signals on the daily chart. And I think we are a critical test against the 200-EMA that I haven't seen since July 2022, when the stock price went as high as 160%. Trade smart and Trade to Win...! All Together; Por la Victoria J.R. Jaén Risk Disclaimer: 1️⃣Past Performance is not indicative of any future performance. 2️⃣Trading and Investing are risky. Only trade and invest with resources and capital; you can afford to lose, and it will not change your lifestyle or family situation if you do not make the returns you wanted or if things go wrong and you lose everything. 3️⃣I can and will have a position in MARA anytime because I like the stock and company. 4️⃣Never go All-In. You do not have to buy with your rent money; you do not have to believe with all your savings because NO one is asking you to do so. This video is a video log, a journal, and a path to share with others how they can gain exposure to Bitcoin without the need to invest 20,000 dollars immediately.
NASDAQ:MARALong
by josericaurte.jaen
[Watch] MARA versus Bitcoin 2️⃣6️⃣| 4H Chart Price Action Morning Team NASDAQ:MARA It is another sunny day in Zagreb. Let's take a look at the price action in the 4-hour chart because as long as prices trade above the 200EMA, you can count on a push higher in the next 4 weeks. Trade smart and Trade to Win...! All Together; Por la Victoria J.R. Jaén Risk Disclaimer: 1️⃣Past Performance is not indicative of any future performance. 2️⃣Trading and Investing are risky. Only trade and invest with resources and capital; you can afford to lose, and it will not change your lifestyle or family situation if you do not make the returns you wanted or if things go wrong and you lose everything. 3️⃣I can and will have a position in MARA anytime because I like the stock and company. 4️⃣Never go All-In. You do not have to buy with your rent money; you do not have to believe with all your savings because NO one is asking you to do so. This video is a video log, a journal, and a path to share with others how they can gain exposure to Bitcoin without the need to invest 20,000 dollars immediately. NASDAQ:MARA
NASDAQ:MARALong
by josericaurte.jaen
When Chips Are Down, They Rebound Slowly But StronglyWhen Chips are down; invest if you can and hedge if you must. Having soared in 2020 & 2021, semiconductor shares tanked brutally as tremors from geopolitics, sinking consumer confidence and bloated inventory struck. Q4 overhang is dragging the industry down in the near term, which might have set a bearish outlook in the short-term, but times are changing. Structural forces and business cyclicality are now becoming robust tail winds for semiconductors, bringing a bullish outlook in the medium-to-long term for the sector. Therefore, this case study argues that an asynchronous time spread in CME E-Mini PHLX Semiconductor Sector Futures ("CME Semiconductor Futures") could potentially deliver a 2.8x reward to risk ratio by first taking a short position in futures expiring in March 2023 followed by a path-dependant long position in futures expiring in September 2023. INDUSTRY ON THE CUSP OF A SUPERCYCLE Chips everywhere. Semiconductors are ubiquitous as products become sophisticated. Rapid growth of mobile devices, emergence of EVs, and rising cloud adoption have created endless demand for higher processing speeds and larger memory. Chipmakers have benefited from this trend. Anticipated exponential growth in consumer durables, IoT, gaming, EVs, and AI/ML will translate into strong sustained demand for chips. Speaking at World Economic Forum, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella asserted that AI would go mainstream not in years but in months. Emergence of generative AI will form a fresh stream of demand for chips. EVs require twice as much chip content than traditional ones. Rising cloud usage will amplify demand from datacentres for graphics processing units (GPUs). In short, semiconductor industry is on the cusp of a demand super cycle. DEMYSTIFYING THE SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ("SOX") is a market capitalization-weighted index comprising of the top thirty (30) semiconductor firms listed in the US. Top names include Nvidia, TSMC, and ASML forming 48% of SOX. The top ten comprise 80% of the SOX. SOX rallied 202% from its low in March 2020 to its high in November 2021. As monetary policy shifted from QE to QT, SOX plunged 46% in 2022 touching its lowest level in October 2022. Since then, it has bounced back 43%, outperforming both NASDAQ-100 and S&P 500 which are up merely 10% during the same period. A CYCLICAL INDUSTRY Semiconductors industry is inherently cyclical given the considerable time lapse between spotting fresh demand and matching them with new supply. In a recent report, JP Morgan cited that semiconductor stocks are close to a cyclical bottom. Each time the industry hits a bottom, it recovers impressively. In one-year and three-years following a cyclical dip, shares in this sector spike 40% and 95% on average, respectively. While short term demand looks bleak on waning consumer confidence, the USD 600-billion industry's long-term prospect looks resolutely bright. LET THE AI WARS BEGIN Revolutionary AI: ChatGPT made its debut in November. It sprinted to a million users in just five days. The excitement in generative AI is palpable. It will revolutionise content generation while delivering vast productivity gains in others. Inflection ahead: AI is approaching an inflection point. Its usage is going mainstream. Expect tech giants to invest heavily to outcompete. If this marks the start of AI wars, the semiconductor firms that make AI work will harvest outsized profits. Shovel makers hit jackpot: During the gold rush, it was the shovel makers that got rich more so than the diggers. In this AI gold rush, the shovel makers (i.e., the semiconductor stocks) are set to reap enormous gains. Nvidia already shining: Nvidia is the market leader in GPUs whose parallel processing capabilities form the core for delivering AI. ChatGPT adoption alone could bring incremental revenues of up to USD 11 billion over the next year, Citigroup estimates. TSMC & ASML well positioned: Nvidia GPU production depends on two firms - (a) the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC), and (b) ASML Holdings (ASML). Berkshire stake in TSMC: TSMC recently announced stunning Q4 earnings. Its net sales grew 42.8% YoY, while its net profits & EPS were up 78% YoY contributing to an ROE of 26.4%. Little wonder that TSMC was one of Warren Buffett's recent investments where his firm acquired USD four billion of TSMC shares last November. ASML dominance: Meanwhile ASML commands a monopoly on key tech (Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography or EUV). EUV is used in producing cutting-edge nano chips that AI requires. ASML is set to secure a windfall on rising AI adoption. CHIPS ACT TO RESHORE PRODUCTION Supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic exposed the vulnerability of over-reliance on globalisation. Russia-Ukraine conflict caused adverse impact with Russia being a major supplier of Palladium and Ukraine being a key source of Neon gas. To reduce over-reliance in a key industry, US last year legislated the CHIPS Act which is aimed at reshoring production on US soil supported by more than USD 150 billion of grants and tax incentives. NO PAIN, NO GAIN IN A V-SHAPED PATH AHEAD Supply ramped-up but a little too late: Clogged supply chains plus demand spike during the pandemic fuelled chip shortage. Ramped up production which always takes a long lead time arrived but at a time of pale consumer demand (PC demand down 28% YoY) late last year. Frail consumer sentiment: Persistent inflation, recession fears, and uncertain outlook, meant lower consumer durable sales. This has slashed demand for semiconductors resulting in one of the largest inventory corrections in the industry. The sector is cooling faster and getting colder than expected. Firms face a tough market saddled with excess inventory compounded by frail end-markets except for automotives. Downgraded chips: Intel reported a loss for Q4 last year and expects a weak first half this year with return to growth in second half. Earnings from other industry majors point to significant headwinds. Analysts have downgraded several chip stocks. Fund flows in ETFs: Fund flows into and out of leveraged ETFs this year show investor activity is moving in tandem with these macro shifts. The Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x ETF (3 times long exposure to SOX) suffered net outflows of $341 million while the Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3x ETF (3 times short exposure to SOX) gained net inflows of $1.1 billion. Insiders are Net Sellers: Insider Activity among majors show that they have been net sellers over the last three months except for Qualcomm, Intel and Applied Materials. Bullish Price Targets: In sharp contrast to this gloomy outlook, analysts covering the top stocks anticipate an average +15% price gain over the next 12-months. TRADE SET-UP This case study proposes a two-legged calendar spread as set out below. Each CME Semiconductor Futures contract provides exposure to twenty-five (25) index points approximating to USD 75,000 in notional with required margin of USD 5,900. TRADE LEG 1 : A short position in the contract expiring in March 2023 will provide exposure to the short-term correction. Entry: 2978 Target: 2571 Stop Loss: 3180 Profit At Target: $10,175 Loss At Stop: $5,050 TRADE LEG 2 : A long position in CME Semiconductor Futures expiring in September 2023 will provide exposure to recovery in the latter part of the year. Entry: 2710 Target: 3718 Stop Loss: 2410 Profit At Target: $25,200 Loss At Stop: $7,500 Aggregate Reward-Risk Ratio: 2.8x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation, or needs of any person. Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience. Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk. These materials are not intended for distribution to, or for use by or to be acted on by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, use or action would be contrary to applicable laws or regulations or would subject Mint Finance to any registration or licensing requirement.
TVC:SOXLong
by mintdotfinance
2
Valuing a stock - ROIC/PE - an interesting ratio As I am both a longer term and shorter term investor and trader the notion of the best way to estimate if a stock is undervalued or over valued interests me. There seem to me a number of ways to go about doing this but I was interested to see if I could combine two traditional metrics that people look at into one measure and see if that told me anything interesting. The two measures I am interested in are P/E ratio - typically used as an indicator of whether a stock is under or overvalued in terms of its price to earnings and of course sometimes reflecting also the expectancy of future earnings growth or reduction. The second measure I was interested in is ROIC - Return on Invested Capital - a fairly good measure of how well a company martials the capital it has invested into producing returns. So I decided to start checking a ratio of these two measures for a series of companies. The ratio I am using is ROIC /PE. When price goes up if EPS and ROIC are same then this ratio goes lower - and vice versa. When ROIC goes up if PE and EPS are the same then this ratio goes higher - and vice versa. When EPS goes up if ROIC and Price are unchanged then this ratio goes higher - and vice versa. When PE ratio goes up then this ratio goes lower - and vice versa. I found an interesting interplay of these factors across a range of stocks and ratios varying from below 1 up to in the twenties. I'm still thinking about what this ratio is really telling me. Here are two current examples which were correct for prices I think it was early last week. NVDA ROIC 12.3 PE 137 ROIC/PE RATIO - 0.09 ON SEMICONDUCTOR ROIC 22 PE 18.23 ROIC/PE RATIO - 1.22 Based only on this ratio and looking at the ratio for various other stocks then NVDA looks very overvalued compared to say ON Semiconductor. Some stocks cam out with really high ROIC/PE ratios and its left me wondering if these are stocks that are really undervalued. Of course the confounding factor in this that a high PE may be there because of expectations for strong future growth. But you'd have to have really strong growth in either ROIC or EPS - or a drop in stock price - for NVDA to come into ratios more like other stocks. Im interested in any thoughts people have on this ratio as a pointer to overvaluation or undervaluation of a stock. Thanks. ( Its my first public post - be gentle lol.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by wjduncan
5
AAPL earnings todayAAPL Q1 earnings are today, 2/2 at 4:30pm. Apple (AAPL) reported Q4 September 2022 earnings of $1.29 per share on revenue of $90.15 billion. The consensus earnings estimate was $1.26 per share on revenue of $90 billion. Revenue grew 8.1% on a year-over-year basis. The company said during its conference call it expects first quarter revenue to be less than $134 billion. The current consensus revenue estimate is $121.65 billion for the quarter ending December 31, 2022. Here's an AAPL 1 week chart with the past 8 earnings reports PE, EPS, revenue, cash & debt data indicators. Plus 2/3, 2/17 and 3/17 expiry options data. Q1 December 2022 Consensus: EPS = 1.95 Revenue: $121.65B P/E = 23.83 Q4 September 2022: EPS = 1.29 beat +1.24% Revenue = $90.15B beat 1.54% Cash = $21.48B Debt = $109.707B Q3 June 2022: EPS = 1.20 beat 3.86% Revenue = $82.96B miss -0.01% Cash = $23.82B Debt = $94.7B Q2 March 2022: EPS =1.52 beat 6.21% Revenue = $97.28B beat 3.49% Cash = $21.95B Debt = $103.323B 2/3/23 expiry options data: Put Volume Total 133,490 Call Volume Total 185,439 Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.72 Put Open Interest Total 236,507 Call Open Interest Total 258,742 Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.91 2/17/23 expiry options data: Put Volume Total 50,165 Call Volume Total 51,491 Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.97 Put Open Interest Total 628,578 Call Open Interest Total 456,492 Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.38 3/17/23 expiry options data Put Volume Total 42,446 Call Volume Total 30,838 Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.38 Put Open Interest Total 495,668 Call Open Interest Total 531,159 Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.93
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Options360
2
Strong bulls and no bears, gold trend is expected next week!During the US stock trading session, gold rose sharply due to the sentiment of the banking crisis in Europe and the United States, and finally closed at US 1988.3 per ounce.Judging from the current strong bullish energy of bulls, the bullish sentiment of retail investors is high, so gold still has room to rise. On Friday, gold still rose after the shock, and continued to expand its gains, thus touching the vicinity of 1937. The rally still failed to slow down. After the correction of the shock above, it failed to form a downward trend. Instead, it took advantage of the situation to continue to go up the high line, breaking multiple resistance in a row, but in the process of rising, it fell slightly after reaching the 1987 dollar line.After the rally went higher, the short-term high was suppressed, but the trend structure failed to change, and there is still some room for the increase to rise. In the short term, it is not easy to guess the top. Before reaching the key layout stage, it is not easy to participate against the trend. The short-term structure is still strong. Take advantage of the trend and wait for the opportunity to step back and go long while not chasing the high.If there is a large pullback, then another shorting plan will be laid out.After maintaining a high level for a short period of time, the volatility is still higher after the correction, and the bulls are still strong, breaking through the previous high of 1960, so the current increase trend structure is still a strong trend.Short-term expectations are temporarily suspended. In terms of the layout of gold next week, we should first look at the decline. The 2000 integer mark has a certain pressure. Yesterday, the US market touched near 1990 and then fell below the shadow line. The market rebounded again in the future. The upward trend is still under pressure. At present, with the closing situation on Friday, the short-term high of the closing line at the end of the week is expected to withdraw again. First look at the fall and then look at the rebound.In general, the short-term bullish trend around the strong link remains unchanged, and the gold operation thinking next week will still be based on low and bullish. In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Short-term-king
4
How to use news and data reports to make transactions profitableFrom central bank interest rate resolutions, non-farm payrolls, PMI indexes, inflation rates and other data reports, to geopolitical developments, and even natural disasters, these are major news that foreign exchange investors cannot ignore.Because the trend of the currency is always guided by these major economic events and news developments, it is accompanied by trading opportunities. Of course, not all news is worth trading, so we must be familiar with how economic events will affect currency market trends.For major transaction news and data reports, we can follow the following three steps: 1. Select news events that will cause price fluctuations Foreign exchange traders tend to pay attention to certain key economic data that have an impact on interest rate speculation. These economic data include: central bank decisions and speeches, gross domestic product (GDP) data, employment data, inflation rate and trade balance. 2. Choose the right currency pair Generally speaking, we will choose currency pairs with high liquidity. There are mainly the following 8 pairs: EUR/USD, USD/¥, AUD/USD, GBP/¥, EUR/CHF, and CHF/¥.The sufficient liquidity of currency pairs is conducive to us to use lower transaction costs to win huge profits through greater volatility. 3. Pay attention to the news release time and forecast results We have to trade based on data expectations, that is, the actual announced results are compared with the predicted values.For example, if the non-farm payrolls report is better than expected, the dollar will generally rise, and EUR/USD may fall. In addition, before the data is released, we need to check the price movement of the short-term chart (5, 10, 15-minute chart), and use the closing price to decide whether to trade the current data report.After the price trend is confirmed, open a position and set a take profit and stop loss. In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
Education
by Short-term-king
The SVB Collapse and Why It Matters To YouInteresting situation with the collapse of SVB (SIVB), the people have yet to realize we control the market not the central planners. and the collapse of SVB is a realization of that power. So , here is what i know from the very little articles and podcasts that I listen to and I will give you guys the why its important. From what i know is that SVB business model was somewhat risky in the first place, and their main consumer base was startups, and tech startups. hence the name Silicon Valley portion of Silicon Valley Bank. Now a little money education... in the world of money and currency (remember currency as current it will become important later) there is a concept called the velocity of money, basically the volatility of money. for my stock traders think the VIX. when the VIX is low there is no money to be made because money is not moving. but when the VIX is high there is plenty of money going around so why not use your dollars as napkins, right or "fun coupons"! this is the velocity of money the faster a person can make money move the more money they stand to make. the banks know this. So when you go to the bank and deposit your check your money is already out the door into something else before you're able to but your wallet in your bag or pocket. this happens because of what is called as the "fractional reserve system" and to be honest its a "F"ed up idea but has worked thus far. what this system means for every dollar you put into the bank, the bank can lend out 10$. A bank is a business it makes its profits by lending money, and when you save your money it cost the bank money, because of your .01% interest rate. the reason for the big push for open accounts is because the more open accounts the bank has means the more money they have liquid, which means the more they can loan out, which means the more they stand to profit. now as an insurance policy the US government makes the banks keep a fraction of their total account balances on site incase of what they call a "bank run" happens (get to what a bank run is later) Now, normally you dont notice this or even care because when you go to the bank and want to pull 100$ from your account its no big deal whats a 100$ when your dealing with 100s of thousands. you want a 100$ you get 100$ instantly. But want to see the system become a problem for you, if you have more than lets say 25,000$ or more in an account go try to pull ALL that money out and see what type of road blocks you encounter. they will make you give ID, reasons for shutting down the account, basically your first born child and your blood type. partly is because they really want to know why you're closing the account, because thats profits walking out the door. but the main reason is, they have to reach out to sister branches and other banks to pool that money together to be able to give it to you and this typically happens like over night. so if you think you're about to waltz into your local bank and demand a 25,000$ check right then and there you're sadly mistaken. the same exact process happens when you take out a mortgage, now your talking $200K and up so now there are more road blocks. whether you're the buyer or the seller. you sell your house for 500K and you think that check you deposited is there right when you get it... yeah its not! back to the currency comment money is now a currency it has to keep moving to keep its value. think of it as a river, mostly you can drink water from a river and be okay because bacteria cannot grow in moving water but drink water out of a pond and you just might catch Syphilis (sarcasm intended). money is the same way, the faster you can make it move the more you stand to make and the healthier the money is, if take money out of the river and stick it in your pond as a savings account inflation will eat it alive making it very unhealthy. Even historically before all this crazy inflation started happening the savings rate in a savings account was like 0.01% and inflation was around 2 percent. Now the importance of this lays with the SVB. When looking at their business model it seems solid... "invest in high beta companies, or higher risk endeavors, then to off set this risk we will load up on the safest paper assets money can buy... the US 10Y bond." Officially the US hasn't defaulted on loans before... i mean we will print more money before we default. I mean it sounds like counterfeiting if you ask me, but who am I just a low key, low level, low volume trader with a computer living in my moms basement :) sarcasm... or is it?! Well from the looks of it it would seem SVB bought a ton of these 10Y bonds in 2021 when the economy was ripping and roaring. So, when bond yields are down their prices are way up. So in the full swing of the "roaring 20's" yields were around 1.12X or keeping it simpler 1.1XX. so that must mean the value must of been sky high. My only rational thought for this type of purchase was the risk manager must of thought he could off load the bonds in the bond market for a nice profit thinking good times were going to continue. On the surface it seems okay high risk business model with a low risk counter weight. But "We the People" were leaving SVB, and going back to what i said about taking your 25,000$ savings out, and they were running out of reserves and their bonds were worth less than the paper they were "printed" on, so they filed a loss on their report. on the surface this was fine, because only die hards read a companies 10Q or 8A but all it takes is one... and there is always that one Guy... and not this Regular Guy either. I personally dont like the instability of the tech industry. i mean i do believe we will make a full blown terminator but i dont want to gamble on which company that is regardless of what the gain is... might as well go gamble in my opinion. So, because there was a mass exodus of accounts they were having a hard time fill orders so file your 8A detailing you're offering more stocks to drum up some money and it falls flat. people read said 8A and see that you dont have cash so the word got out and the consumers made a bank run. Dont get it twisted either this can happen to any commercial bank JP Morgan, BofA, Chase, Citi, Credit Suisse and the like. a bank run is when the majority of depositors want their money back now and they do it in close succession of each other forcing the bank to say "we dont have your money" so they in essence "run" to the "bank" to get their worthless paper. Now, what i just learned is back in '08 our amazing government passed legislation basically stating they will no longer bail out banks. (honestly if you guys know the piece of legislation please post it in the comments) I agree with this legislation because when I lost 15k on a bad USDCHF trade 7-8 years ago the government didnt bail me out. that was all my money... just gone in a matter of seconds. So the US government came out and said " we will make sure all depositors will get their monies back... How? step in Bail-Ins And again a bail in is something i literally just learned about... i swear at this point were just making -ish up at this point... ok so we know what a bail out is... basically the US government funnels all this cash into a failing business(s) and the tax payer picks up the tab. so what is a bail-in?... glad you asked a bail-in is when the depositors pick up the tab... How? well the FDIC picks up the first $250K and anything over that 250K is now funneled into bank to help offset the loss. so if you have $500K in the bank the first $250K is yours... uncle sam gives it back via FDIC (which that money has been long gone spent, so i dont know where theyre going to pull money from to keep this facade of the FDIC up) and the next $250K is the banks... So congratulations you have just become a unwillingly silent partner of a failing bank. -ishy news is that the current administration is trying to give more power back to the IRS and bring it back to its glory days like it was in the 80's so you wont be able to claim those losses on your taxes, if you had a business friendly administration you might actually have a fighting chance. i have a feeling the whole world is watching what is about to happen, because the entire banking system relies on high value accounts. if the US says tough luck that might send uneasy shock waves to all the high income earners and might make them want to pull their funds out of the banking system... there is a very interesting article on Credit Suisse that i want to read so ciao!
TVC:US10Y
by ARegularGuy
1
Momentum vs Business Valuation"The momentum guys take it up to the moon, the value guys pick it up off the floor. Just watch out for the space between the two." -Confucius the trader have been reading up on the Turtle Traders and their momentum strategy. They would have bought anything as long as it meets their break out rules. Fascinating statistical strategy based on both 20 period price action and 55 day price action. Im sure they love the action in NVDA right now. However, in the valuation books. The oldies but goodies books (Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham, Beating the Street by Peter Lynch) they would be less enthusiastic about the current valuation. Most useful would be Peter Lynchs PEG ratio, where growth rate is used to allow paying a higher price than normal for growth stocks. The roughly 30% growth rate annual expectation in this case would mean if NVDA falls below 30pe, it would be attractive. Its almost twice that now. Thats not necessarily a reason to sell a quality stock. it just means that investors have already market up the stock and are buying it ahead of the future growth being expected. In this case, 2026s future growth. Traders gonna trade. They dont care about the future value of a stock. they care about Profit this week or this month and then on to the next one. however the investors do care. They are looking for getting a deal on something that can swell up with earnings and juicy future value dividends. Investors want a discounted price today, and 20 years of accumulated earnings so they can milk the future dividend payouts. Any who, just watch out and be aware. Its a fast horse, its also a popular one.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by optionfarmers
Good chance to get in now......with this still unknown Blockchain company instead of investing in Bitcoin! I have been working intensively with this company for more than four weeks and see a unique opportunity to get in right now. Based on the company's recent acquisitions, I expect that growth will be significant this year and that the break-even point will be reached or even exceeded. However, this is only an idea and not an investment recommendation. Penny stocks are subject to a large volatility. For more information about this company, visit their website at: wellfield.io
TSXV:WFLDLong
by DX-Trader
RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES There are several risk management strategies that can be used to help mitigate potential losses and increase the chances of success in any investment or trading endeavor. Here are a few common risk management strategies: Diversification is an essential risk management strategy that involves spreading your investments across different markets, asset classes, and securities. The goal of diversification is to reduce the overall risk in your portfolio by minimizing the impact of any single investment or market on your portfolio. When you diversify your portfolio, you spread your investments across different asset classes such as stocks, bonds, and commodities. You also diversify across different markets, such as domestic and international markets, and across different sectors, such as healthcare, technology, and consumer goods. By diversifying across different asset classes, markets, and sectors, you can help balance out potential losses in any one area. For example, if you have all of your investments in the stock market, you are vulnerable to a significant loss if the stock market experiences a downturn. However, if you have some investments in bonds or commodities, those investments may perform well during a market downturn, helping to offset your losses in the stock market. Additionally, diversification can help you take advantage of opportunities in different markets and sectors. For example, if the stock market is experiencing a downturn, other markets, such as commodities or international markets, may be performing well. By diversifying your investments, you can take advantage of these opportunities and potentially improve your overall returns. It's important to note that diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss, but it can help reduce the overall risk in your portfolio. However, diversification requires careful planning and ongoing management. You should regularly review your portfolio and make adjustments to ensure that your investments remain diversified and aligned with your goals and risk tolerance. Diversification is a critical risk management strategy that can help reduce the impact of any single investment or market on your portfolio. By spreading your investments across different markets, asset classes, and securities, you can help balance out potential losses and take advantage of opportunities in different areas. Setting stop losses is a vital risk management strategy that involves setting a predetermined price point at which you will sell a security to limit potential losses on any given trade. Stop losses are commonly used by day traders and other active investors to protect their portfolio from large drawdowns and minimize potential losses. The concept of a stop loss is relatively simple. When you buy a security, you set a price point at which you are willing to sell the security if the price drops to a certain level. This level is known as the stop loss level. If the security's price reaches the stop loss level, the security is sold automatically, limiting your potential losses. The main benefit of using stop losses is that they allow you to manage risk effectively. By setting a stop loss, you limit the amount of money you can potentially lose on any given trade. This can help prevent large drawdowns and protect your portfolio from significant losses. Stop losses are also valuable because they help you avoid emotional trading decisions. When you have a predetermined stop loss level, you can take the emotion out of trading decisions. This can help prevent you from holding onto losing trades for too long, which can result in even greater losses. However, it's important to note that setting stop losses is not foolproof. In fast-moving markets or markets with low liquidity, a stop loss order may not execute at the desired price, resulting in losses greater than expected. Additionally, setting stop losses too close to the market price may result in the order executing prematurely, potentially missing out on gains. Setting stop losses is an important risk management strategy that can help protect your portfolio from significant losses. By setting a predetermined price point at which you are willing to sell a security, you can limit potential losses and avoid emotional trading decisions. However, it's essential to use stop losses carefully and adjust them as needed to ensure that they are aligned with your goals and risk tolerance. Position sizing is an important risk management strategy that involves determining the appropriate amount of capital to allocate to each trade based on the level of risk involved. Position sizing is critical because it helps you manage the risk in your portfolio and avoid overexposure to high-risk positions. The idea behind position sizing is to ensure that the amount of capital you allocate to each trade is proportionate to the level of risk involved. For example, if you're taking on a high-risk trade, you'll want to allocate less capital to that trade to limit the potential losses. Conversely, if you're taking on a low-risk trade, you may allocate more capital to that trade. Position sizing can be calculated in various ways, but the most common method is to use a percentage of your account balance for each trade. For example, if you have a $100,000 account and you decide to risk 2% of your account on each trade, you would allocate $2,000 to each trade. By carefully managing position sizing, you can limit the impact of any single trade on your portfolio. If you allocate too much capital to a single trade, you run the risk of losing a significant portion of your portfolio if that trade goes wrong. On the other hand, if you allocate too little capital to a trade, you may miss out on potential gains. Position sizing is also essential for avoiding overexposure to high-risk positions. If you have too much capital allocated to high-risk trades, you run the risk of suffering significant losses if those trades go wrong. By carefully managing position sizing, you can ensure that you have a well-diversified portfolio with appropriate levels of risk. Position sizing is a critical risk management strategy that helps you manage the risk in your portfolio by determining the appropriate amount of capital to allocate to each trade based on the level of risk involved. By carefully managing position sizing, you can limit the impact of any single trade on your portfolio and avoid overexposure to high-risk positions. The risk-reward ratio is an important risk management tool that can help you make more informed trading decisions. The ratio measures the potential return on investment against the amount of risk involved in a particular trade. By focusing on trades with a favorable risk-reward ratio, you can increase your chances of success and limit potential losses. The risk-reward ratio is typically expressed as a ratio of the potential reward to the potential risk. For example, if you're considering a trade where the potential reward is $2,000 and the potential risk is $1,000, the risk-reward ratio would be 2:1. A favorable risk-reward ratio means that the potential reward is greater than the potential risk. By focusing on trades with a favorable risk-reward ratio, you can increase your chances of success. This is because you're only taking on trades where the potential reward outweighs the potential risk. This means that even if some trades don't work out, you can still make a profit if the majority of your trades have a favorable risk-reward ratio. One of the benefits of the risk-reward ratio is that it helps you avoid emotional trading decisions. By focusing on the potential reward relative to the potential risk, you can take the emotion out of trading decisions. This can help prevent you from taking on trades with too much risk or holding onto losing trades for too long. It's important to note that a favorable risk-reward ratio doesn't guarantee success. Even trades with a high potential reward relative to the potential risk can still result in losses. However, by focusing on trades with a favorable risk-reward ratio, you can limit potential losses and increase your chances of success over the long run. The risk-reward ratio is an essential risk management tool that measures the potential return on investment against the amount of risk involved. By focusing on trades with a favorable risk-reward ratio, you can increase your chances of success and limit potential losses. It's important to use the risk-reward ratio in conjunction with other risk management strategies to ensure that you have a well-diversified and balanced portfolio. Staying informed is an essential risk management strategy for day traders. It involves keeping up-to-date with the latest news and developments in the market, both on a macroeconomic level and for individual securities. By staying informed, traders can identify potential risks and opportunities and adjust their trading strategies accordingly. There are many ways to stay informed as a day trader. One of the most important is to keep an eye on financial news sources, such as Bloomberg, CNBC, and The Wall Street Journal. These sources can provide valuable insights into market trends, company news, and other factors that can impact your trades. Many day traders also use social media, such as Twitter and Reddit, to stay informed about the latest news and trends in the market. Staying informed also means staying up-to-date on changes in regulations, economic indicators, and other macroeconomic factors that can impact the market. For example, changes in interest rates, trade policies, or fiscal policy can have a significant impact on market performance. By staying informed about these factors, traders can adjust their trading strategies accordingly and make more informed trading decisions. In addition to staying informed about the market, traders should also stay informed about their individual securities. This means monitoring earnings reports, company news, and other developments that can impact the price of a particular security. By staying informed about individual securities, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy, sell, or hold a particular security. Staying informed is an essential risk management strategy for day traders. By staying up-to-date on the latest news and developments in the market, traders can identify potential risks and opportunities and adjust their trading strategies accordingly. Staying informed involves monitoring financial news sources, social media, macroeconomic factors, and individual securities to make more informed trading decisions. Overall, effective risk management involves a combination of these and other strategies, as well as careful planning, discipline, and a commitment to a sound trading strategy. By using these techniques and remaining focused on your goals, you can better manage risk and increase your chances of success in any investment or trading endeavor. STAY GREEN
AMEX:SPYEducation
by UnknownUnicorn37963351
Tight Consolidation in Lam ResearchSemiconductors have outperformed lately as investors get excited about demand from artificial intelligence (AI). Today’s chart considers equipment supplier Lam Research. The first pattern is the rising 50-day simple moving average (SMA). LRCX has consolidated in a tight range around that line during the last three weeks, a potential sign the intermediate-term uptrend remains in effect. Next, roll back the clock to mid-January when the 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA. That kind of “golden cross” may suggest the longer-term direction has turned more bullish. Third, the recent lows were near a 50 percent retracement of the rally between late-December and early February. Finally, prices are back above the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA), which may suggest bulls are taking control over the shorter term. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
NASDAQ:LRCX
by TradeStation
1
Interpreting the Silicon Valley Bank Incident After the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve used monetary policy to fight the pandemic, and household savings deposits reached about $1 trillion, with broad money M2 growing by over 25%. Many people were bullish on the US stock market, believing that these huge amounts of idle cash would one day enter the market as stocks. Obviously, many people forgot the double-entry accounting principle - for every credit, there must be a corresponding debit. For Silicon Valley Bank, with deposits of over $100 billion, all of its depositors are the largest and bluest venture capital companies and technology newcomers in Silicon Valley, including Peter Thiel's Founder's Fund. Since the Federal Reserve interest rate is zero, they bought the world's safest assets - short-term US bonds, and even earned some interest. However, the good times did not last. By the end of 2021, US inflation began to soar, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy began to lose control, causing short-term US bond yields to soar, leading to the biggest US bond market crash in over 200 years in 2022. Suddenly, the world's safest asset became the storm's eye, and the US bond holdings in Silicon Valley Bank's account began to bleed. Even if they haven't sold yet, accounting requires mark-to-market valuation. The Silicon Valley market price loss has exceeded its total equity. Rating agencies wasted no time in preparing to downgrade Silicon Valley Bank's rating. However, deposit rates remain close to zero. Americans don't want to be harvested like this, so they began to withdraw their bank deposits and buy money market funds that now yield nearly 4%. If Silicon Valley Bank significantly raises its deposit interest rates, its interest margin income will be reduced, and it will have to pay additional liquidity. At this time, Silicon Valley found itself in a dilemma. Investment bank Goldman Sachs saw commission opportunities and began to suggest that Silicon Valley sell part of its US bond portfolio and sell $2.25 billion of its stocks to replenish capital. This idea was really bad: data disclosed during the roadshow showed that Silicon Valley's customers were withdrawing large sums of money, causing a significant loss of deposits. If it weren't for the roadshow disclosure, the market wouldn't know the details. Now, the market believes that Silicon Valley is about to go bankrupt, accelerating the run on the bank. Since Silicon Valley's customers are all big clients with deposits far exceeding $250,000, more than 95% of Silicon Valley Bank's deposits are not covered by the US deposit insurance limit of $250,000. There must be many other regional banks using similar methods for cash management. Today, they are bound to face the same risks as short-term US bond yields soar. This also explains why the market unilaterally believes that the Federal Reserve will soon stop raising interest rates. Their actions determine their fate. Of course, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy must now consider the impact on the US banking industry. Chairman Powell has recently been saying that he needs to "consider the totality of data." Last night, the market hid in the short-term US bonds out of safe haven demand, causing yields to plummet. Many people continue to be indifferent to the historic inversion of the US bond yield curve. In fact, the inversion of the yield curve is a distortion of risk, which is not sustainable. Its reversal will cause a cataclysmic event. Although long-term risks are stable, short-term risks are high. We need to survive the short term to see the long term. "But such long-term predictions are of no use for the present. In the long term, we are all dead. Economists have it too easy, because their work is useless. At the onset of a storm, economists can only tell us that the storm will pass, and that the ocean will be calm again." - Keynes Now, the global market is concerned: Will Silicon Valley Bank be rescued? Many experts believe that if the US regulatory authorities do not intervene, Silicon Valley will become the second Lehman, which will bring down the US financial system. The market needs to see three measures for rescue: 1) Small depositors with less than $250,000 should receive full payment; 2) Depositors with deposit insurance limits over $250,000 should receive partial payment, and it should be ensured that in the future, depending on the sale of Silicon Valley Bank assets, these large depositors can receive most of their payment (such as 80%); 3) Let one of the four major US banks take over Silicon Valley Bank. The problem now is that less than 3% of Silicon Valley Bank deposit balances are below $250,000. Others are large and blue, including Silicon Valley venture capital companies such as Sequoia Capital, Paradigm, a16z, and GGV Capital. Many Silicon Valley companies involve funds ranging from hundreds of millions to tens of billions. No wonder Silicon Valley was squeezed for more than $40 billion before being taken over. Under such pressure, almost no bank can survive. Unfortunately, US law may not allow it. If the Federal Reserve intervenes, the Silicon Valley crisis must meet the definition of "systemic risk" and there must be "broad-based" risks, and it cannot only benefit a particular company. At the same time, the Federal Reserve cannot intervene in bankrupt companies that have already been taken over. The US Treasury cannot use unlegislated funds without congressional approval, and now there is no money left. In the end, it seems that FDIC has to bear the burden alone. The process of selling Silicon Valley assets to pay large depositors has already begun. It is reported that hedge funds have offered to buy Silicon Valley Bank's deposits at 60%-80% of their value. In times of crisis, Silicon Valley assets can be realized for 60%-80% of their value, and after the panic in the US market subsides, the price should be even higher. After all, US Treasury bonds trade up to $650 billion every day. Will the Federal Reserve open the floodgates again because of Silicon Valley Bank? In fact, Silicon Valley's bankruptcy is precisely due to the Fed's unbridled printing of money, which caused a sharp drop in US bond yields and a surge in savings deposits. If money is printed again using Silicon Valley as an excuse, the Fed's only remaining credibility will be gone. When Lehman collapsed, its assets were worth $640 billion, and its associated derivative contract amounted to trillions of dollars. It was indeed a decisive moment. However, the assets of Silicon Valley Bank this weekend were only $220 billion, and it still held a large number of highly liquid US Treasury bonds. Previously, the market believed that the US economy would not decline, but the Federal Reserve's decision to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes, and even stop them soon, made the combination of economic and policy expectations logically hard to convince. During this cycle of rate hikes, Federal Reserve officials maintained a dovish stance until the end of 2021, believing that inflation would be a "transitory, temporary phenomenon." They then changed their tune in 2022, saying that this round of inflation will be "higher and longer." In both recent history and ancient times, the Federal Reserve's forecasting record seems to be lacking. Overnight, the two-year US Treasury yield skyrocketed by more than 5%, the first time since 2007. The degree of inversion of the US Treasury yield curve is the most severe since 1981. Many people mistakenly believe that the inverted US Treasury yield curve is terrifying. In fact, it is more terrifying when the yield curve returns to normal from inversion because this is the moment when the US economy officially enters into a recession. Follow me and you'll get more interesting investment information! Plus, I'll share real-time trading strategies during trading hours, including stocks, gold , crude oil , forex, cryptocurrencies, and more!
S
by EagleEyeStrategy
2
What impact will there be after bankruptcy for SVB? The main reason for SVB's problem this time is liquidity. The banking industry is different from other industries, where the importance of liquidity is far greater than profitability. In the past few decades, there have been too many banks that have experienced extreme risks due to liquidity issues, and SVB has fallen into the same trap. The management was aware of the bankruptcy, as the CEO cashed out $3.6 million in stocks two weeks before disclosing the losses. The exaggeration was that a few hours before the announcement of bankruptcy, the company still distributed bonuses for 2022 to its employees. It is a stark contrast between those who received the bonus and thinking about how to spend it, and those who cannot withdraw their deposits and are worried about the situation. The market is concerned about the possibility of systemic risk and a Lehman-like crisis. As discussed earlier, based on the data, the liquidity risk of large banks is manageable, and the Federal Reserve is providing a backstop. However, there are around 5,000 banks in the United States, and more than just SVB may face liquidity risks in a high-interest rate environment. (Based on the data, there is a significant amount of unrealized losses for the four largest banks in the United States. The risk depends on the ratio of "hold-to-maturity investments/total liabilities." The ratios for the four banks are 22%, 12%, 12%, and 17%, while SVB's ratio is as high as 47%. Overall, the risk appears manageable.) The bankruptcy of SVB has the deepest impact on technology companies, as Silicon Valley Bank was set up to provide financing to technology companies, so many technology companies also keep their cash in SVB. Many companies have already disclosed the amount of their deposits in SVB over the weekend, and the impact on the technology industry is indeed significant. In theory, the money in SVB is safe because the asset problem is not significant, but due to the mismatch of terms, it takes six months or even a year to pay, which is a huge pressure for some technology startups. Those who have started a business know that every day they wake up, they have to pay rent and salaries, and liquidity is the core support for company operations. Hedge funds in the United States have already begun to look for opportunities to enter this time-limited money-making opportunity. Today, a hedge fund proposed to buy the startup company's deposits in SVB at a price as low as 60% of face value. It is indeed taking advantage of the situation to buy at this price, and if the asset confirmation is no problem, the portion due in a year, which is a 5% discount rate, is highly likely to be recovered by more than 90%. The bankruptcy of SVB has had a significant impact on financial assets, and the US stock market has fallen for two consecutive days mostly because of this. The US bond yield has also fallen for two consecutive days, and the flight to safety sentiment is beginning to spread. In the final analysis, the reason for SVB's bankruptcy this time is the Federal Reserve's rapid rate hike. Many contradictions will be highlighted in a high-interest-rate environment. The United States may still be relatively stable, and the greatest volatility may be in Europe and emerging markets. The follow-up is to pay attention to whether there will be further impacts and the Federal Reserve's further actions. The Federal Reserve has confirmed that it will hold an emergency closed meeting of the Federal Reserve System Board of Directors at 11:30 am local time on Monday, and we await the outcome of the meeting. Follow me and you'll get more interesting investment information! Plus, I'll share real-time trading strategies during trading hours, including stocks, gold , crude oil , forex, cryptocurrencies, and more!
S
by EagleEyeStrategy
ETH: Waiting for a rebound opportunity to go shortETH: Judging from the 4-hour chart, the market has shown a three-wave downward structure, of which the third wave has been extended, and the continuous strength of the bears is still continuing. In terms of operating ideas, the market continues to rebound and short. ETH: 1480-1500 empty, near the target 1370 In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by Blessed_V
5