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Mastering the Mental Game of Trading-THIS ONE FOR THE BOYZTrading is 99.98% mental and 1% physical. Stay focused, disciplined, and immune to the influence of FUD and FOMO to maximize your trading success. Trading is not for the faint of heart! It requires a strong mindset, unwavering discipline, and the ability to navigate the treacherous waters of FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) and FOMO (fear of missing out). Here are some key insights to help you master the mental game of trading and stay on top of your game! 💪 1️⃣ Stick to Your Plan: A well-defined trading plan is your guiding light in the chaos of the market. It helps you make rational decisions and avoid impulsive moves driven by emotions. Trust your plan and resist the temptation to deviate from it. 2️⃣ Manage Your Emotions: Emotions can cloud judgment and lead to irrational decisions. Stay calm, composed, and unswayed by the market noise. Don't let FUD and FOMO derail your trading strategy. Embrace a disciplined approach and separate emotions from your trading decisions. 3️⃣ Timing is Key: Recognize that there are different trading opportunities in different market conditions. Some days are meant for day trading, while others are for accumulating positions. Be mindful of key levels and choose your entry and exit points wisely. Patience and timing are crucial. 4️⃣ Mind Over Bag: Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. Focus on long-term gains and building a strong position rather than chasing quick profits. Avoid being swayed by influencers or external factors that can disrupt your game plan. Keep your eye on the bigger picture. 5️⃣ Stop Loss Strategy: While stop losses are essential risk management tools, they need to be used judiciously. Tight stop losses at critical levels may lead to premature liquidation. Assess the market conditions and adjust your stop losses accordingly. Let your trades breathe within reasonable risk parameters. Remember, success in trading stems from a disciplined mindset, adherence to your plan, and the ability to overcome emotional impulses. Build your skills, stay focused, and enjoy the journey of becoming a master trader! 🚀💰
Education
by bagboybillionaire
ABRI was in at $10.80 on ABR - it's been a very good run with a cap-gain of about 29'ish %, and earning a dividend of 12.5% while doing it - the dividend was 15.5% at my entry-point! I am still long, and I think it is still undervalued. The ABR earnings and margins are strong and the dividend is still very strong compared to it's peers. I have a sell-order on it when it reaches $21, if it happens to strike gold on a major pop... but I expect it will soften around $17-$18. @ $17.50 or so, the dividend will be in-line with peers and I will probably leave it in the portfolio for the handsome quarterly checks.
NYSE:ABRLong
by NordicVetMBA
Peeking into Super SevensIn our previous paper , we outlined how investors can use CME's Micro S&P 500 Futures to hedge beta exposure and extract pure alpha. The paper referenced that the Super Sevens stocks (Amazon, Apple, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla) will continue to outperform the broader S&P 500 index. Not only do these stocks benefit from passive investing and ESG investing, these firms also have solid fundamentals to back up their gargantuan valuations. Each of the firms in the Super Sevens offer unique value drivers. Each firm is a market leader in its space and has demonstrated resilient earnings capacity and solid growth potential. Still, each also has its own set of risks. Notably, with the Super Sevens the value drivers outweigh the potential risks. AMAZON VALUE DRIVERS • Blistering profits from AWS offering with dominant market share of 33%. • Market dominance in e-commerce and solid supply chain network. • Successful new categories: Kindle (publishing), Alexa (voice assistant), and Prime (video streaming). POTENTIAL RISKS • Heavy reliance on AWS for profits. Slowing growth in AWS due to slowdown in corporate IT spending. • Low profit margins in e-commerce business. Slowing growth due to lower consumer spending. • Rising competition in cloud services and e-commerce. ANALYST PRICE TARGETS • Across 54 analysts providing a 12-month price target, 42 (77%) having a strong buy rating, 7 (13%) of them have a buy rating, 4 (7%) suggest a hold, while just 1 (2%) has a strong sell rating. • Average 12-month price target stands at 137, with a maximum of 220 and a minimum of 85. TECHNICAL SIGNALS • Technical signals point to momentum deeply in favour of Amazon shares. Oscillators point to buy and Moving averages point to a strong buy. • In aggregate, technical signals point to a buy. APPLE VALUE DRIVERS • Product category definers. Dominant and still growing iPhone demand. • Solid eco-system which is extremely hard to displace. • Control over both software and hardware enables specialized tailored improvements. • Sticky services such as App store, Apple Pay, and potentially Apple BNPL. POTENTIAL RISKS • Apple is heavily reliant on external fabricators exposing it to supply-chain bottlenecks. • Heavily dependent on iPhone sales. • Rising dependence on future growth in unexplored new categories. ANALYST PRICE TARGETS • Across 42 analysts providing a 12-month price target, 22 (52%) having a strong buy rating, 6 (14%) of them have a buy rating, 13 (31%) suggest a hold, while just 1 (2%) has a strong sell rating. • Average 12-month price target stands at 187, with a maximum of 220 and a minimum of 140. TECHNICAL SIGNALS • Technical signals point to solid momentum favouring long position in Apple shares. Oscillators point to buy and Moving averages point to a strong buy. • In aggregate, technical signals point to a strong buy despite Apple trading at near its all-time-high. GOOGLE VALUE DRIVERS • Google is the dominant search engine (86% market share). • Phenomenally successful and effective ad-targeting capabilities. • Heavy investments in future innovation enabling leapfrog into new verticals such as Android, Waymo (FSD & Maps). • Successful early acquisitions such as YouTube, Android, Applied Semantics & DoubleClick (AdSense), Nest (Home Automation). POTENTIAL RISKS • Massive reliance on ad revenues via search for profits. Slowing ad spend as firms cut back on spending. • Non-trivial dependence on cloud revenue for growth exposes them. Slowing cloud revenue growth due to lower corporate IT spending. • Failure to expand into new domains such as social media, wearable tech, and gaming. ANALYST PRICE TARGETS • Across 52 analysts providing a 12-month price target, 40 (77%) having a strong buy rating, 7 (13%) of them have a buy rating, while 5 (10%) suggest a hold. None of the analysts have a sell rating. • Average 12-month price target stands at 131, with a maximum of 190 and a minimum of 100. TECHNICAL SIGNALS • Technical signals point to decent momentum favouring Google shares but prices are at tiny risk of oscillating downwards. Oscillators point to neutral while Moving averages point to a strong buy. • In aggregate, technical signals point to a buy. META VALUE DRIVERS • Market monopoly on social media with high penetration across global markets on multiple platforms. • Flagship Facebook platform continues to see growth with 2.9 billion monthly active users (MAU). • Successful acquisitions have provided them with a wide suite of social media platforms – WhatsApp (2 billion MAU) and Instagram (2 billion MAU). • Successful developer tools (Graph, Hydra, React) have allowed them to build useful SDK (Software Development Kit). Potential sources of enterprise revenue from these. POTENTIAL RISKS • Increasing competition from TikTok. • Privacy concerns have a direct revenue impact e.g., Apple’s new privacy policies. • Falling market share for flagship Facebook in advanced economies. • High reliance on ad-sales. Slowing ad sales as firms cut back on spending. • Shaky bet on the Metaverse which is starting to fade. ANALYST PRICE TARGETS • Across 60 analysts providing a 12-month price target, 39 (65%) having a strong buy rating, 7 (12%) of them have a buy rating, 10 (17%) suggest a hold, 1 (2%) sell rating, and 3 (5%) has a strong sell rating. • Average 12-month price target stands at 281, with a maximum of 350 and a minimum of 100. TECHNICAL SIGNALS • Technical signals point to decent momentum favouring Meta shares. Oscillators signal neutral indicating a tiny risk of shares shedding gains while Moving averages point to a strong buy. • In aggregate, technical signals point to a buy. MICROSOFT VALUE DRIVERS • Sheer dominance of Windows (74% market share) & MS Office. • Deep roots in MS Office enables the firm to straddle across consumers & enterprise. • Diversified software offerings - cloud (Azure), gaming (Xbox), enterprise (Windows Server and SQL), search (Bing), productivity (Office), collaboration (Teams), and AI (through Open AI's ChatGPT). • Active M&A activity to acquire assets - LinkedIn, OpenAI, GitHub, Skype, Mojang, Nokia, Activision-Blizzard (Pending). • Besides Windows, Microsoft controls dev frameworks such as .Net further strengthening their grasp on SW dev. POTENTIAL RISKS • Limited success in hardware offerings unlike Apple. • Multiple major acquisitions have fizzled – Skype and Nokia. • Limited adoption in enterprise software. ANALYST PRICE TARGETS • Across 51 analysts providing a 12-month price target, 37 (73%) having a strong buy rating, 6 (12%) of them have a buy rating, 7 (14%) suggest a hold, while just 1 (2%) has a strong sell rating. • Average 12-month price target stands at 345, with a maximum of 450 and a minimum of 232. TECHNICAL SIGNALS • Technical signals point to decent momentum favouring Microsoft shares. Oscillators are at neutral while Moving averages signal a strong buy. • In aggregate, technical signals point to a strong buy. NVIDIA VALUE DRIVERS • Market dominance in discrete GPU’s (80%). • Early mover in AI hardware which gives them a lead over the competition. • Raytracing, DLSS, Neural Network cores. • Nvidia’s CUDA is the primary choice for training ML models. • Market dominance in high-growth data centre graphics hardware (95%) and super-computing hardware. • Successful enterprise partnerships – car manufacturers using Nvidia software. • Emerging tech such as AI and VR require more graphics intensive processing driving demand for Nvidia’s products. POTENTIAL RISKS • Hardware-focused business model exposes it to supply-chain risks and bottlenecks. • Extremely high P/E of 225 dependent upon expectations of future growth in AI. • Losing market share in discrete GPUs and enterprise GPUs to AMD and Intel. ANALYST PRICE TARGETS • Across 50 analysts providing a 12-month price target, 36 (72%) having a strong buy rating, 6 (12%) of them have a buy rating, 7 (14%) suggest a hold, while just 1 (2%) has a sell rating. • Average 12-month price target stands at 444, with a maximum of 600 and a minimum of 175. TECHNICAL SIGNALS • Technical signals point to solid momentum favouring long position Nvidia shares. Oscillators point to buy and Moving averages point to a strong buy. • In aggregate, technical signals point to a strong buy despite Nvidia relentless and unrivalled price ascent. TESLA VALUE DRIVERS • Early mover in EV’s with dominant market share in US (62%). • Dedicated and loyal customer base. • Vertical integration of EV value chain allows it to reduce reliance on external suppliers. • Early investment in large factories that will allow them to scale output more efficiently. • Huge and monetizable supercharger network by opening it up to other EV makers. • Subscription model for software enables revenue generation after product sale. • Long term vision has allowed Tesla to create entirely new products such as supercharger network, battery banks, home power backup and solar roofs. • Tesla’s planned Robotaxi and entry into car insurance can be hugely disruptive. POTENTIAL RISKS • Increasing competition from automobile majors as well as Chinese EV firms. • Tesla’s brand is deeply entangled with Musk’s reputation. • Dependence on government incentives to make Tesla affordable. • Continued access to battery metal minerals. • Ongoing and unresolved production scaling challenges. ANALYST PRICE TARGETS • Across 46 analysts providing a 12-month price target, 18 (39%) having a strong buy rating, 5 (11%) of them have a buy rating, 17 (37%) suggest a hold, 1 (2%) has a sell rating, and a 5 (11%) hold a strong sell rating. • Average 12-month price target stands at 201, with a maximum of 335 and a minimum of 71. TECHNICAL SIGNALS • Technical signals point to solid momentum favouring Tesla. Oscillators point to buy and Moving averages point to a strong buy. • In aggregate, technical signals point to a strong buy. SUMMARY The Super Sevens are well positioned to continue outperforming the wider market. As mentioned in our previous paper , investors can use a beta hedge to nullify the effects of the broader market (S&P 500) and extract pure alpha from the growth of the Super Sevens. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by mintdotfinance
35
Harvesting Alpha with Beta HedgingImagine this. Dark skies, earth tremors and thunder roars. Shelter is top priority. Size matters in a crisis. When the tsunami strikes and lightning splits the sky, investors shudder in fear; But the super seven stand tall, shielding investors from the fury. Dramatic metaphors aside, we truly live in unprecedented times. Risk lurks everywhere. List is endless. Unstable geopolitics. Sticky inflation. Recession expectations. Unprecedented deepening of yield curve inversion. Unfinished regional banking crisis. Weak manufacturing. Tightening financial conditions. Extremely divisive global politics, to just name a few. Despite severe headwinds, US equity markets are roaring. YTD, S&P is up +15% and Nasdaq is up +32%. At the start of 2023, the consensus was for US equities to be in doldrums dragged down by recession. Halfway through the year, markets are at the cusp of one of the best first half for US equity markets in twenty years. This is among the narrowest and top-heavy rally ever. Only a sliver of stocks - precisely seven of them - defines this optimism. This paper will refer to these as the Super Sevens. These are the biggest members of the S&P 500 index. Super Sevens are Amazon, Apple, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. This paper argues that the Super Sevens will deliver above market returns in the short term as investors seek safe haven from a vast array of macro risks. The paper articulates a case study to demonstrate the use of beta hedging to extract alpha from holding long positions in Super Sevens and hedging them against sharp reversals using CME Micro E-Mini S&P 500 index futures ("CME Micro S&P 500 Futures"). THE RISE AND RISE OF SUPER SEVENS Super Sevens have an outsized impact as S&P 500 is a market weighted index. Merely five of these seven form 25% of the S&P 500 market capitalisation. At $2.9 trillion in market capitalisation, Apple is greater than all of UK’s top 100 listed companies put together. If that were not enough, Apple's market capitalisation alone is greater than the aggregate market capitalisation of all the firms in the Russell 2000 index. Nvidia has been soaring on hopes of AI driven productivity gains. On blow out revenue guidance, it has rallied $640 billion in market cap YTD. That increment alone is larger than the combined market cap of JP Morgan & Bank of America the two largest banks in the US. The heatmap summarises analyst targets & technical signals on pathway for prices ahead: In part 2 of this paper, Mint will cover the detailed analyst price forecasts, technical signals and summary narratives covering value drives and intrinsic risk factors. WHAT DRIVES INVESTOR CONCENTRATION INTO THE SUPER SEVENS? As reported in the Financial Times last week, two broad market trends appear to have fed into this investor concentration. First, Passive investing. When funds merely deliver the performance of an index by replicating its composition, the higher the index weights, the more these passive funds buy into these names. Second, ESG investing. Rising push towards ESG has forced investment into tech and away from carbon-heavy sectors such as energy. Collectively, this has resulted in all types of investors – active, passive, momentum, ESG- all going after the same names. Question is, what happens now? Will the broader market catch up with the Super Sevens? Or will the Super Sevens suffer a sharp pullback? That depends on the broader US economy. Will it have a hard landing, soft landing, or no landing at all? Given market expectations of (a) resilient earnings capacity, and (b) solid growth potential among Super Sevens, we expect that in the near to mid-term the Super Sevens will continue to outperform the broader market. In ordinary times, investors could have simply established long positions in Super Sevens and wait to reap their harvests. However, we live in unprecedented times. WE LIVE IN TRULY UNPRECEDENTED TIMES Risks abound but no signs of it in equity markets. Historically, geopolitical instability, tightening financial conditions, and a deeply inverted curve could have led to crushing returns in the US equity markets. Not this time though. Peak concentration As mentioned earlier, bullishness in equity markets can be vastly attributed to just the Super Sevens. These seven have delivered crushing returns rising between 40% and 192% YTD. The S&P 500 index is market cap weighted. Super Sevens represent the largest companies in the index by market cap and their stellar performance has an outsized impact on the index. Is this a bull run or a bear market clouded by over optimism among Super Sevens? Deeply inverted yield curve In simple words, it costs far more to borrow for the near term (2 year) relative to the borrowing for long term (10-year). The US Treasury yield curves have been inverted for more than a year now. The difference between the 2-Year and 10-Year treasuries is at its widest level since the early 1980s. Inversion in yield curve has historically been a credible signal of recession ahead. When bonds with near term duration yield higher rates than those with longer-dated expiries, this precedes trouble in the economy. Recession. What recession? This period might go into the record books for the most long-awaited recession that is yet to come. For the last 12 months, experts have been calling for recession to show up in 3 months. While manufacturing sector seems feeble, labour market remains solid. Corporate balance sheets are robust. Consumer finances and consumer confidence are in good health. The VIX remains sanguine while the only fear indicator that appears unsettled is the MOVE index which indicates volatility in the bond markets. After having spiked earlier in the year, the MOVE is starting to soften as well. BETA HEDGING FOR PURE ALPHA In times of turbulence, risk management is not an afterthought but a necessity. Hedge delivers the edge. When there are ample arguments to be made for bullish and bearish markets, taking a directional position can be precarious. This paper posits Super Sevens holdings be hedged with CME Micro S&P 500 Futures. Hedging single stocks is nuanced. The stocks and the index do not always move in tandem. A given stock may be more volatile or less volatile relative to the benchmark. Beta is the sensitivity of the stock price relative to a benchmark. Beta is computed from daily returns over a defined historical period. Stocks with high Beta move a lot more than the underlying index. Stocks that move narrowly relative to its underlying benchmark exhibits low Beta. Beta hedging involves adjusting the notional value of a stock price based on its beta. Using beta-adjusted notional, hedging then involves taking an offsetting position in an index derivative contract to match the notional value. TradingView publishes beta values computed based on daily returns over the last 12 months. The following table illustrates the beta-adjusted notional for the Super Sevens based on the last traded prices as of close of market on June 16th. Beta hedging using CME Micro S&P 500 Futures enables investors to precisely scale their portfolio exposures to the index. A small contract size enables investors to manage risks with finer granularity. CME allows conversion of micro futures into a classic E-mini futures position, and vice versa. Round the clock liquidity combined with tight spreads and sizeable open interest across the two front contract months, investors can enter and exit the market at ease. BETA-HEDGED TRADE SET UP In unprecedented times like today, markets may continue to rally or come crashing. To harness pure alpha, this paper posits a spread with long positions in Super Sevens hedged by a short position in CME Micro S&P 500 Futures expiring in September 2023. This trade set-up gains when (a) Super Sevens rise faster than the S&P 500, or (b) Super Sevens suffers drop in value but falls lesser relative to S&P 500, or (c) Super Sevens gain while S&P 500 falls. This trade setup loses when (a) Super Seven falls faster than S&P 500, or (b) S&P 500 rises faster than Super Seven, or (c) S&P 500 rises while Super Sevens pullback Each CME Micro S&P 500 Futures has a multiplier of USD 5. The September contract settled on June 16th at 4453.75 implying a notional value of USD 22,269 (4453.75 * USD 5). Effective beta hedge requires that notional of the hedging trade is equivalent to the beta-adjusted notional value of single stock. Given the beta-adjusted notional value of USD 2,561 for single shares in Super Sevens and the notional value for each lot of CME Micro S&P 500 Futures at USD 22,269, the spread trade requires: a. A long position in 26 shares each across all the Super Sevens translating to a beta-adjusted notional of USD 66,576. b. Hedged by a short position with 3 lots of CME Micro S&P 500 Futures which provides a notional exposure of USD 66,807. The following table illustrates the hypothetical P&L of this spread trade under various scenarios: MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by mintdotfinance
3
$HOOD - A New Generation, A New Bull MarketState of the Stock Robinhood’s time in the stock market has been an arduous one and not one without controversy. The stock went public in a hotly anticipated IPO at about $36.41 on July 29th, 2021. It saw tremendous interest in the first week of trading reaching an overly lofty value at ~$85 a share before starting to sell off. This sell off has relentlessly continued and in many places, you will find negative commentary on the stock. I personally believe that the stock’s price action bottomed on June 17th, 2022 at about $6.84 a share. Since then the stock has been slowly plodding along and striking higher lows, which I will illustrate later in the charting. I also believe that the stock’s story is close to turning around and could get more positive attention in the later half of this year. I am going to talk about the balance sheet, cost cutting, charts, and the controversy. I will be limiting my comments on the balance sheet to lines that I believe deserve notice. For this post, I will be comparing Robinhood to their old school rival, Charles Schwab. The Balance Sheet (See Robinhood's Financials) Overall, I read Robinhood’s balance sheet as being quite strong. Particularly in the amount of cash and sort term investments that the company is carrying. At 5.46 Billion in cash and 1.52 Billion in short term investments the company can cover operating expenses (excl. COGS) for about 3.5 years. The company has also shared that the short term investments are in <1 year term treasuries. Which is quite a good decision given the current rates. I only wish they had purchased a little more than 500 million or so. As of this writing (6-11-23), Robinhood carries a market cap of ~$8.5 billion as well. Their cash position is nearly the size of their entire equity. In comparison, SCHW (Charles Schwab) has about $75 billion in cash and a market cap of 100 Billion. I believe that the market is underestimating how Robinhood can deploy that cash. Lastly, Robinhood is very close (9.41 market) to their book value per share (7.83). In comparison, SCHW has a book value per share of 15.36 and is trading at 55.0 in the market. I believe this illustrates that Robinhood is quite cheap, even after the June ’22 bounce when it was cheaper than the book. (See Robinhood's Financials) Next, the cashflow at Robinhood is quite good and turned positive in Q4’22. Whereas their rivals are experiencing negative free cash flow during this same period. Robinhood, on a relative basis for this metric, looks to be outperforming during the banking crisis. During their earnings calls they have also reported a net increase in deposits as well as assets under custody (AUC) increasing by an impressive 26% due to the run on stocks in 2023. What I find most interesting about this is that customer cash in Robinhood has steadily grown to $11 billion from $2 billion at IPO. It has been on an impressive path of growth. I believe this is the result of their strong “Brokerage Cash Sweep” program and the rates they’ve been able to offer. They have been able to effectively remove the friction between treasury yield and their customers. This also creates a beneficial situation where their clients can deploy capital quickly, while maintaining some yield from their cash. Effectively, creating productive reserves for their customers who can choose to deploy it at any moment right on their app. (See Robinhood's Financials) Lastly, the company itself is quite close to profitability. The next 4 quarters are projected by broader WallStreet to come in at an EPS of about -0.01 to -0.03. Any positive change in their costs or earnings could lead to a surprise profit. Such as cash from treasury yield, cost cutting measures, new products, or increased business. The company itself continues to stress, that they are becoming leaner as time goes on. I believe that to be true. Cutting Costs – The Layoffs In 2022, Robinhood performed several rounds of lay offs. This allowed them to cut Q2 ’22 and Q3 ’22 operating expenses significantly (excl. COGS). This does not appear to have impacted their revenue growth and has given them the added benefit of being ‘right sized’. And to the best of my knowledge, no further lay offs are currently on the table. In fact, their revenue is now higher than it has ever been since IPO at $447 million and is pushing them ever closer to profitability. “Robinhood Is Laying Off 9% of Its Full-Time Employees” – Wall Street Journal, Apr. 29, 2022 www.wsj.com “Robinhood Lays Off 23% of Staff as Retail Investors Fade From Platform” – Wall Street Journal, Aug. 2, 2022 www.wsj.com 2023 Road Map – 4 Catalysts Now that we’ve talked about cost cutting, let’s take a look at the road map and see if there are opportunities for fundamental growth. I will list out 4 that I believe can have a positive impact on their business. Options Trading in Cash Accounts Margin Outside Gold Futures Trading UK Market Expansion Lets tackle the first two on the list. Options Trading in Cash Accounts should continue to grow their existing business. This should increase their revenue generated per user as more current customers have access to more products. Options trading is particularly popular among Robinhood’s customer demographic. Margin Outside Gold I find personally controversial. I personally don’t believe in using margin. Regardless, it should also increase their revenue generated per user. While both of these are improvements that could turn the company profitable for EPS. They are not as major as the next two items. Futures trading would open an entire new market for the Robinhood user. I believe it is an incredibley potent catalyst for their user base and will allow their customers to trade more often and in new ways. Robinhood advancing offerings for active traders In March, we applied for a Futures Commission Merchant license and, if approved on a typical timeline, we expect to launch futures trading by the end of 2023. s28.q4cdn.com UK Market Expansion should allow them to acquire a significant number of new users. Robinhood continues to explore growth opportunities, expands access globally With an experienced team leading and an existing license in place, we believe we’re on track for our ambitious goal of launching brokerage services in the UK by the end of the year. s28.q4cdn.com To summarize, I believe expanding into a new country, the UK, and providing futures trading to their existing customers they expand their business significantly over time. Lets take a look now at the charts and see what we can find in the price action. Charting A Path The first thing of note on Robinhood’s stock chart is that a series of higher lows have been put in. The price action, for the first time since IPO, is showing an increasing pattern in the price. I believe the stock has a classic Falling Wedge which I interpret as bullish. I believe the wedge has formed because of the positive developments in the balance sheet, cost cutting, and the future outlook. Examining the MACD on the 1D time scale we also see higher lows put in as well as an MACD crossover onto the positive scale. Overall, I read the charts as having increasingly positive momentum. I also believe that momentum is growing, albeit slowly. Lastly, on the 2D time scale my favorite indicator, DMI, shows the bulls having taken control on ~May 24 2023. I don’t think it’s any coincidence that was the low after the most recent earnings report. I believe the majority of the bears have left the stock as evident by their strength at ~11.5. We also have seen the natural termination of the ADX which implies, to me, that the previous trading trend for the stock has come to an end. A new trend does appear to be forming. It could fizzle out, but that’s up to Robinhood’s management. I believe all of the necessary setups are currently there for them to succeed as both a company and a stock. Closing Thoughts & Possible Risks The Demographic & The Controversy By discussing Robinhood here, I feel that I must mention reddit’s r/wallstreetbets. The community there has a significant impact I believe on Robinhood’s success or failure. The community has a significant following and many of their members use the app. I believe they are an opportunity for Robinhood as well as a possible risk. The 14 million members are potential customers for the Futures trading introduction as well as the increased margin offerings. However, the community has aligned itself with being against the Robinhood app and have been in a ‘boycott’ of the app since the GME trading saga of early 2021. While the community is very vocal on the matter, many of the posts continue to show use of the Robinhood app. At a minimum, it remains controversial, but still in use. This has led me to believe that most of the drama has faded and because of the high quality product Robinhood offers, has started to draw users back to the app. I believe this is well illustrated in their MAU and NFA graphs. There’s a unique opportunity here for them to either win back this community or lose them forever. This could also be related to the flurry of trading activity seen in stocks related to AI in the past few months. Heavy Insider Selling An additional risk is that the insiders, specifically Tenev Vladimir, CEO & Bhatt Baiju, Chief Creative Officer, continue to sell large numbers of shares. This is creating an immense downward pressure on the stock price. If this pattern continues, it could contribute negatively to the stocks performance. However, I believe that’s a non-issue if the company becomes profitable. I hope that we are approaching the end of the insider selling. Crypto & SEC Action Additionally, due to recent events, Robinhood has pulled 3 of their crypto offerings. I believe this is another mixed risk. While they will take a revenue hit by delisting those tokens, they may end up gaining users if customers of Coinbase or Binance decide to take their business elsewhere. It could end up being beneficial to Robinhood, but there’s no way of knowing at this time. At the time of this writing there has been no report that I can find of Robinhood receiving a notice on the matters affecting Binance and Coinbase. Robinhood instead chose to remove the 3 affected securities voluntarily. I believe this is the responsible thing to do and well advised. By taking pre-emptive action they are protecting their business from getting entangled in the matter and remaining compliant with the SEC. This is a value the company has stated a number of times during their earnings calls. I believe their actions demonstrate that value and is representative of good governance from the company leadership. That said, the SEC could still take action against the company if they choose to do so. Therefore, it still carries some risk and must be considered. Macro & Last Thoughts So, here we are. It’s June 11th, 2023. Costs are significantly reduced and being controlled, notable Roadmap 2023 objectives are close, plans for new markets and offerings are approaching, and revenue continues to grow. The company is just a few pennies away on EPS from breaking even or potentially turning a profit. There is also significant distance from the drama surrounding GameStop, Robinhood, and WallStreetBets. The charts are showing higher lows being put in place. More positive momentum looks to be coming into the stock via the MACD. Additionally, the bulls appear to have taken control via the DMI on ~May 24th, 2023. I believe this is a case where a significant breakout could occur. It remains to be seen if it will, but I believe there is a potential trade here to the upside. It is not without downside risk though and that must be taken into consideration. Current thinking in the market is that we may be entering a new bull market based off of recent SP500 closing levels. However, the macroeconomic picture still remains unclear. Particularly in regards to inflation, interest rates, and consumer spending. If it is a new bull market, Robinhood may benefit from increased trading activity, but if the macroeconomic picture deteriorates it could degrade Robinhood’s business and affect the stock. Either way, I personally believe the stock is in an interesting position within the market. Trade carefully, trade wisely. ~Kryptonite As always, please consult the appropriate professionals for any financial decisions. I am not a professional. I am an amateur hobbyist. These are my own personal opinions that I’ve expressed regarding the market and the companies mentioned above. I am not responsible for any decision, trade, or investment you may make. You should assume that as of the publication date of any report, post, or communication referencing any publicly traded security or asset that Kryptonite Research (myself) may have a position in the security or asset and I might stand to realize significant gains if the price of the stock moves. Following publication of any report, post, or communication, I intend to continue transacting in the securities covered therein, and Kryptonite Research (myself) may be long, short, or even neutral at any time thereafter regardless of Kryptonite Research’s (myself) initial position. I reserve the right to alter my position at any time without notice. Images are sourced from the TradingView app, Adobe Stock photos, and Robinhood’s Investor Relations. I do not claim ownership. As an additional disclaimer, at the time of this writing I am a Robinhood customer and holding a position in Robinhood’s stock.
NASDAQ:HOODLong
by kryptoniteresearch
1
Momentum Shifting final warningextended the low range forcast to March 2023 with a potential rally for the bottom first week of January traders have been dollar cost averaging and you can plainly see it on the charts. Forcast is bearish with momentum diverging for a lower low. Dollar cost averaging in my opinion only works if your taking short term profits. The risk in todays market is extremely high in my opinion. I am not going to speculate any further. This chart only shows a visual representation of what we believe is coming.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by UnknownUnicorn35774657
2
Is the Worst OVER? This is the differential of 10yr vs 1yr US bond which represents long term against short term yield on sovereign debt, and those you don't know, short term bonds are used by central banks to control interest rates(amazing uh? the FED does not actually print money) therefore they do use bonds as a tool to control interest rates which then controls the S&D of capital. As you can see, we are back at a differential which is extremely low, back to energy crisis levels. However, we seem to be already at very low levels, does that mean THE WORST HAS COME? What is going to happen to the stock market? A very quick and personal thought to sum everything up as I do not consider myself an expert macroeconomist: the market is efficient, meaning that the current price on every single security is traded at all the current public information that is available and if something keeps going up, it means that expectation are in favor of it moving higher. Hope that explains what I wanted to say, Feel free to ask question, be safe!
TVC:US10Y
by EWFAlessio
$TSLA Tesla - Too Much Speculation in The Price #StocksIn the short term, remnants of "the growth that was" has Tesla stock anchored to some higher prices. In the long term, the forecast looks a little more cloudy. I wouldn't be surprised to see Tesla stock hit $200 or lower again before the next bull market REALLY begins. The stock is now trading outside of it's fundamental range of value. I would take the draw down from Friday as a sign of what's to come in the future. Check out the Equity Channel Podcast on Apple, Spotify and Amazon to get more insights on trading and investing.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by D1Finance
2
Tesla will save us from fossil fuel dependencythe title says everything you need to know. without tesla the auto industry would of pushed fossil fueled engined until the supply was gone "crippling the economies reliance". right now we are seeing the aftermath of the covid epidemic and its pressure on us still after 3 years. supply chains have been disrupted globally and now fuel supply shortages are happening right now. there is a massive agricultural demand coming and the supply won't be there to meet the demand. these companies responsible for supply chains need to wake up to whats going on and change for everyone. the profits will come later. right now is the best time to say F it and restructure. Tesla should prepare for HIGH Demand that will innevitably come in 2023. Fuel supply shortage has a massive effect on the global supply chain. War has lasting effects for decades. Food supply shortages causes hunger and labor shortages. Transition or watch supply chains stop. We could be seeing the early days of another global crisis. Tesla is the catylst to fix global supply issues forever. Reliance on fossil fuels would be basically 0. Tesla stock will struggle some until 2023. Watch the fuel markets. When oil starts tanking wait for the recovery and start buying tesla shares. gas prices will skyrocket after oil tanks. could be 10.00 per gallon before EOY 2023
NASDAQ:TSLA
by UnknownUnicorn35774657
Research firm claims Netflix adding new subscribers According to a recent report by a research firm, Netflix has added a significant number of subscribers after their password crackdown. This is excellent news for investors as it shows that Netflix is taking proactive measures to protect its content and attract new subscribers. As we all know, a growing subscriber base is crucial for the success of any streaming service. With this in mind, I encourage you to consider investing in Netflix. The company has a proven track record of success and constantly innovates to stay ahead of the competition. By investing in Netflix, you can be a part of their continued growth and success. I hope you will join me in investing in Netflix and taking advantage of this exciting opportunity. I look forward to your comments. msn.com/en-us/money/technology/netflix-added-subscribers-after-password-crackdown-research-firm-says/ar-AA1cleMG?li=BB16M4hs
NASDAQ:NFLX
by bryandowningqln
GM Ford commit Tesla EV charging network so new standard setGM and Ford joined Tesla's EV charging network, bringing us closer to a US industry standard. This collaboration is a significant milestone for the EV industry, marking a new era of cooperation and innovation. By joining Tesla's network, GM and Ford are committed to providing their customers with the best possible charging experience. This move will make charging more accessible and convenient for EV drivers and help reduce range anxiety, a significant barrier to EV adoption. As a trader, you can invest in Tesla, a company leading the way in the EV industry. Tesla's innovative technology and visionary leadership have made them a force to be reckoned with, and their commitment to sustainability and clean energy make them a great investment choice. I encourage you to consider investing in Tesla and join the movement toward a more sustainable future. With the support of industry leaders like GM and Ford, Tesla is poised to continue its growth and success in the years to come. Thank you for your time, and I look forward to your comments on this exciting development
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by bryandowningqln
Discounted GrowthRev Growth YoY and FWD are 50 and 23% respectively and 307 and 167% above the sector respectively while PE GAAP TTM and FWD are 71 and 65% below sector! This implies a huge discount in growth. Gross Profit does lag behind the sector by about 12%, but the valuation combined with the outsized growth substantially off-sets this disparity. On a technical note, there is an intermediary "W" pattern. Confirmation of this pattern would be realized once the SP closes above the midpoint peak of @25.75 along w/ substantial volume, 3 day rule, etc. Pattern and targets are also correlated with Fibonacci retracement levels and Fib Time series.
NASDAQ:AALLong
by Jrussell86
Japan Weakens - Invest in USDJPY Now!As you may have heard, Japan's economy has been experiencing some weakening lately. The country's GDP has declined for the past two quarters, and its government is struggling to stimulate growth. In addition, the Bank of Japan has been keeping its interest rates at harmful levels, putting pressure on the yen. But what does this mean for us as traders? Simply put, it means that now is the perfect time to invest in USDJPY. Moreover, with Japan's economy weakening, the yen is also expected to weaken, making the USDJPY pair an excellent option for traders looking to make some profits. So, what are you waiting for? Take advantage of this opportunity and invest in USDJPY now! You could make some serious gains with the right strategy and some luck. As always, I recommend researching and analyzing before making any investment decisions. However, if you're looking for a good investment opportunity, USDJPY is worth considering. I hope you found it informative and helpful.
Long
by bryandowningqln
Inflation will never stop...its time to short inflation 50%Inflation will never stop no matter how much money you make. Right now the cost of living avg is 50% too high for the current wages to keep supporting too much longer. homelessness and families moving in together to survive is already happening. The signs are out there for everyone to see and the government is playing with your lives. When wages increase so does the cost of living. Now the cost of living since the 1950's is too high to maintain in 2022 with current wages and 2023 will be worse. Unsustainable economic breakdown is coming and depression in society is at the highest i have ever seen it in my life time. Fuel shortages, Food shortages, high utility bills, taxes keep going up, government keeps overspending, times are tough for working families. United States Statistics for inflation and cost of living Year Median Home Value Median Rent Household Median Income Gas Prices vary by state this is the avg Avg wage per hour worked 1950 $7,400 $42 $2,990 $0.27 $0.75 1960 $11,900 $71 $4,970 $0.31 $1.15 1970 $17,000 $108 $8,734 $0.36 $1.50 1980 $47,200 $243 $17,710 $1.20 $3.10 1990 $79,100 $447 $29,943 $1.10 $4.25 2000 $119,600 $602 $55,030 $1.40 $5.15 2010 $221,800 $901 $49,445 $2.60 $7.25 2022 $428,700 $1295 - $2495 $78,075 $3.40 to $6.00 $7.25to $16.00 varies by state Federal Minimum Wage Information $5.15 - Sept. 1, 1997 $5.85 - July 24, 2007 $6.55 - July 24, 2008 $7.25 - July 24, 2009 Inflation and supply shortages keeps getting worse. I hear so much everyday from people and this is what people say to me when i ask. I don't make enough money to survive. Bank won't give me a loan. I don't make enough money this year to cover bills. I need things and the store doesn't have it or its too expensive for my budget. power bill too expensive. gas is too expensive. my car has been in shop for months and still not fixed. my bank won't refinance my home. i can't afford groceries because i no longer qualify for government "snap" benifits with my raise at work and i have 4 kids. I am losing my farm to drought and excess cost of fuel and supplies. Automated warehouses put my entire family out of business. several people came forward with police not doing there job while communities are getting robbed while they are at work. the covid epidemic cost me everything my home and my business. my health insurance went up and can no longer afford it. so many people out there struggling to survive and the normal services that help these people have exhausted there funding without any more support for the demand of help. i don't see an end to this economic struggle people are facing and its only going to get worse. Fed rates hikes, the covid pandemic and the countless defaulted loans and ongoing bankruptcies with inflation has banks refusing personal loans and refinancing to alot of people without collateral. All i can say is stick with the job you have and try to manage your finances carefully. resources are stretched thin and customer service everywhere has a high turnover rate with people that don't really know what they are doing. People are taking any job they can to survive and when they lose or find another job they move on and don't really care about the service they are providing. They are basically a third party for the companies and some have reported security violations that resulted in fraud to access individual finances. I'm not writing a book here so i will leave this info here for you reading to digest and research on your own. Maybe a post from you on social media or here with some resources to help others find the help they need. thx for reading
ECONOMICS:USIRYYShort
by UnknownUnicorn35774657
SPX The S&P 500 is heading towards a major resistance around the 4310 level. This is the last major resistance that needs to be taken in order to go up. With the current state of the economy the rejection of this level is the most likely scenario. The rise in interest rates see no end this summer. And historically there tends to be a market crash after they stop raising rates and start cutting them. Another factor is that the government will raise the debt celling causing more money to be printed which weakens the state of the economy even more. But generally will cause prices in the market to rise. The only thing that will make the market really bullish is some new development or technology such as AI that will rapidly increase production in the United States. But currently we are at a 50/50 point on which direction we will end up going heading into 2024. The main things to watch are the debt celling bill and the terms with in it, the Fed reserve rate hikes and what they project in the future, and any major news development of new tech and trade deals, as well as energy production and government easing restrictions on drilling.
SP:SPX
by MarketMastermindsGroup
best indicator providing ML-powered buy and sell indicatorAI-Signals is a cutting-edge tool designed to revolutionize your trading experience. It leverages the power of Artificial Intelligence to provide highly accurate trading signals, helping you make informed decisions in the dynamic world of trading. Here's how AI-Signals can assist you: Accurate Predictions: AI-Signals uses advanced machine learning algorithms to analyze market trends and predict future price movements with high accuracy. This can significantly reduce the guesswork in trading and increase your chances of making profitable trades. Real-Time Alerts: With AI-Signals, you get real-time alerts on potential trading opportunities. This means you can act quickly and never miss out on a profitable trade. Risk Management: AI-Signals not only helps you identify profitable trades but also assists in managing your risk. It provides insights into potential risk levels, helping you make safer trading decisions. Time-Saving: Analyzing market trends and making trading decisions can be time-consuming. AI-Signals automates these processes, saving you valuable time and allowing you to focus on other important aspects of your trading strategy. Suitable for All Traders: Whether you're a beginner or an experienced trader, AI-Signals is designed to be user-friendly and easy to understand. It's a valuable tool for anyone looking to enhance their trading strategy. In a nutshell, AI-Signals is a powerful tool that can help you navigate the complex world of trading with more confidence and precision. It's a step towards smarter, more profitable trading.
RLong
by tuviapm
1
NASDAQ BULL RUNNVIDIA Carried nasdaq to our base of our inverse head and shoulders, we can potentially see nasdaq forming a shoulder and then retesting the base (13930) if the base is broken then I would expect Nasdaq to hit 14200 close to the USA debt ceiling meeting - 1 June 2023, or if there's any positive news regarding the debt ceiling. With NYSE about to open we could see the bulls take over sooner than we want, we have seen this multiple times with an inverse head and shoulders pattern close to NYSE open. hence why we have an early buy zone. Other forms of validation: - Fair value gap - Trend Line retest - Shoulder pattern - 50 day ema
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by crownclubfx
Understanding Economics: Exploring Micro and Macro ConceptsWelcome to my first ever post! Starting today, I will be embarking on a journey to try and spread the knowledge about the world of economics. As a 16-year-old student who is undertaking their A-Levels, I want to share some of the knowledge I am getting and I am excited to share my knowledge and insights on micro and macro economics over the next year and a half. Through this journey, we will delve into essential topics such as Individuals, Firms, Markets, and Market Failure. We will explore the fundamental concepts of supply and demand, market structures, and the consequences of government interventions. Together, we will develop a solid foundation in microeconomic principles. In the second phase of our exploration, we will turn our attention to the macroeconomy. I will guide you through the intricacies of the circular flow of income, aggregate demand, and aggregate supply analysis. We will unravel the complexities of fiscal policy, monetary policy, inflation, unemployment, and their impact on the macroeconomic landscape. Whether you are a student, a professional, or someone simply seeking to enhance your understanding of economics, this blog aims to provide valuable insights and practical knowledge. I encourage you to actively participate by sharing your suggestions and questions as we embark on this educational endeavor together. Join me as we dive into the world of economics and unravel its mysteries. Stay tuned for regular updates on my blog, where we will explore various economic concepts and their real-world applications. If you wish the take a look at what I will be going through, I will list them down below, but apart from that Good luck! MICRO 4.1 Individuals, frms, markets and market failure 4.1.2 Individual economic decision making 4.1.3 Price determination in a competitive market 4.1.4 Production, costs and revenue 4.1.5 Perfect competition, imperfectly competitive markets and monopoly 4.1.6 The labour market 4.1.7 The distribution of income and wealth: poverty and inequality 4.1.8 The market mechanism, market failure and government intervention 4.2.1 The measurement of macroeconomic performance Macro 4.2.2 How the macroeconomy works: the circular flow of income, aggregate demand/aggregate supply analysis and related concepts 4.2.3 Economic performance 4.2.5 Fiscal policy and supply-side policies 4.2.6 The international economy
Education
by CosmosTradingGroup
Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs)Honeywell plays a large role in the future technology being implemented in aviation. Specifically now with their push for Sustainable Aviation Fuels. Seeing a greater push from consumers and organizations for more sustainable practices in doing business, the US government is expected to launch more programs to incentivize the use of sustainable fuels. The mix of the two factors may lead to a great opportunity for growth as demand starts to pick up in the coming years.
NASDAQ:HONLong
by AirMarketGroup