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Cloud computing: what are the big players telling us?Each earnings season, we become accustomed to certain patterns. One pattern involves the biggest tech companies reporting earnings before many other smaller and medium sized firms. In what we know is a very difficult economic backdrop, it’s important to look for signals that some of the world’s largest companies are giving us. Additionally, since Microsoft Azure, Amazon Web Services, and Google Cloud are three of the world’s largest providers of public cloud infrastructure, it’s possible that these reports contain details about how companies are spending more broadly on technology. Combining the annual revenues of just these businesses (recognising that they are each part of larger companies) we see spending on cloud infrastructure annually in the hundreds of billions of dollars. We believe that there is a difference between these three large public-cloud infrastructure providers and the much greater number of far smaller Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) providers. These three firms, for instance, are a major part of most market capitalisation-weighted benchmark indices. They are at a point in their life cycles where they should exhibit sensitivity to broad, global economic activity and growth expectations. What can they tell us? The most important thing that we think the results of the big public-cloud providers can tell us regards trends in broad-based information technology spending on cloud computing. Eventually, the enterprise market will have ‘moved to the cloud’ and the growth rates of these large players should drop significantly. We are not yet there so, in this type of environment, we really want to see the resilience of cloud spending in the face of a tougher economic backdrop. There haven’t been that many economic slowdowns since the genesis of the cloud business model, and there certainly haven’t been sustained periods of inflation or central bank tightening. What don’t they tell us? The smaller SaaS providers tend to help their customers with much more specific business initiatives. It may be accounting, compliance, cybersecurity, data analysis…the list is becoming endless. These companies are more idiosyncratic, in that their individual results do not translate to broad trends as clearly as the biggest company results would. However, we might see strong spending in cybersecurity, for example, and this may not be as clearly visible in the results of the biggest companies. Our initial sense is that it is important to remember that, in many cases, businesses transitioning to the cloud is done to create efficiency and to accomplish more while investing either less time, less money or less of both. We think that this overall trend will continue, but it likely won’t continue at the rates seen in recent years if the global backdrop is characterised by a deteriorating economic picture. It’s also the case that many cloud-focused companies have seen their share prices drop significantly in 2022. This doesn’t mean that all the risk is ‘priced-in’ by any means, but it does tell us that the valuation risk of the space is lower relative to the much higher valuations seen towards the end of 2021. Microsoft Microsoft is a leader in the cloud space, and it’s important to note that the Azure infrastructure platform is one piece of the overall ‘Intelligent Cloud’ effort. Most attention goes to the year-over-year revenue growth rates, so it is instructive to first ground any discussion in some of the recent quarterly figures, which are shown in year-over-year terms for Azure specifically below1: 30 September 2021: 50% 31 December 2021: 46% 31 March 2022: 46% 30 June 2022: 40% 30 September 2022: 35% It also helps to look at the overall revenue base to help ground any further thoughts about reasonable growth. While the quarterly results do look at more than the pure Azure revenues, broadening the picture to ‘Intelligent Cloud’, we see that Microsoft’s Intelligent Cloud revenue was $16.91 billion as of 30 September 2021, and that this figure increased to $20.33 billion as of 30 September 2022. This is a quarterly figure, and it is beginning to be quite large, so part of the growth rate deceleration that we may be seeing could be attributed to the size and scale of these figures. Analysts are seeing Azure customers very focused on optimising their cloud workloads, which helps them to save money, and it’s also the case that there is evidence that customers are pausing on new workloads. It is reasonable to think that, in an environment of slower economic growth, consumption-based business models like public cloud infrastructure may indicate shifts in customer-behaviour toward more essential workloads2. Amazon Amazon Web Services (AWS) is the leading public cloud infrastructure platform based on market share, often cited as having a figure around 40% of the total. If we consider the year-over-year growth rates from recent quarters3: 30 September 2021: 39%. 31 December 2021: 40% 31 March 2022: 37% 30 June 2022: 33% 30 September 2022: 27% Similar to the case of Microsoft, we are seeing decelerating growth rates. However, if we look to 30 September 2021, the trailing 12-month net sales for AWS was at $57.2 billion, and this same figure as of 30 September 2022 is $76.5 billion. These are getting to be quite large numbers. Also similar to the story with Microsoft, enterprise cloud customers are looking to reduce costs within the AWS ecosystem. Analysts are continuing to note the long-term potential and how this differs from the situation within the shorter-term macroeconomic backdrop4. Alphabet—Google Cloud in focus Google Cloud, within Alphabet, does trail both Microsoft Azure and AWS in terms of market share, but Alphabet as a whole runs a formidable, cash-rich business, so they have been known to make large, splashy deals to gain high-profile cloud customers. If we note the year-over-year growth figures5: 30 September 2021: 45% 31 December 2021: 45% 31 March 2022: 44% 30 June 2022: 36% 30 September 2022: 38% The growth rates are similar to what we noted with Microsoft Azure and AWS, but the dollar figures are much lower. As of 30 September 2021, the quarterly revenue from Google Cloud was reported at $4.99 billion, and then as of 30 September 2022, this figure had grown to $6.87 billion. It is notable that, while Microsoft and Amazon saw quarter-to-quarter decelerations in growth rates, Google Cloud is cited as a bright spot of growth acceleration in Alphabet’s results. However, we note that Alphabet’s core business was certainly not immune to deteriorating economic conditions, and that the revenue figures are growing from a smaller overall base. Conclusion: the economy matters but this is not the year 2000 The primary conclusion that we reach at this point is that economic conditions do matter for cloud computing companies. We have already seen their share price performance for 2022; it is crystal clear that market participants have re-assessed the appropriate valuation multiples for these firms considering higher inflation and higher interest rates. We will be watching closely to see how much revenue growth these companies can maintain as they continue to report earnings for the period ended 30 September 2022. The biggest companies, so far, have reported a range of 27% to 38%. It clearly isn’t the euphoric environment of 2020 any longer, but we don’t think it appropriate to say a ‘tech bubble is bursting’ either. Sources 1 Source: Microsoft’s First Quarter Fiscal Year 2023 Results, 25 October 2022. Revenue figures presented in the generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) format. 2 Source: Sills, Brad & Adam Bergere. “Expected Azure decel likely temporary, cyclical; model largely derisked.” Bank of America Securities. 26 October 2022. 3 Sources: Amazon’s Quarterly Earnings Conference Call Slides for the specific periods ended: 30 September 2022, 30 June 2022, 31 March 2022, 31 December 2021 and 30 September 2021. The revenue growth figure is taken as the year-over-year growth without foreign exchange adjustment. 4 Source: Post, Justin & Michael McGovern. “Expecting Less this Holiday.” Bank of America Securities. 28 October 2022. 5 Sources: Alphabet’s Quarterly Earnings Announcements which specify the revenues from different business units on a quarterly basis for the periods ended: 30 September 2022, 30 June 2022, 31 March 2022, 31 December 2021 and 30 September 2021. Percentage growth is calculated directly from the figures that Alphabet reports for Google Cloud, all in USD terms.
E
by aneekaguptaWTE
Tesla Should Bottom Out SoonDespite the market correction in TSLA shares, the company still has a bright future. * substantial revenue growth * more attractive valuation, ~38x earnings vs triple digit PE ratios formerly * aggressive pace of innovation for batteries, self driving, trucks and semis. * less expensive vehicles than previously produced, so more consumers can afford Teslas * Cyber Truck rollout likely in 2023. These next few years will likely be years of growth for the company into new areas of the market, as well as continued innovation for new types of electric vehicles, battery technology and self driving technology. The stock price is still in a power down trend but it's approaching long term up trend support and given the bright outlook of this maturing company, I expect it will hold if tested. The path of least resistance appears to be up for the years to come. This correction has been a healthy cleansing of the shareholder base so new hands can come in at better valuations.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by chriscase
Investing in exercise bicycles...?People can say Peleton is sooo much more than an exercise bike. I don't disagree, however, it's core business and most valuable product is it's bike. Sure, subscriptions and add-ons bring in lots of cash, but you won't get any of that subscription money if your target market is as small as this one's is. I say that because you have to be financially in a decent position in life to even afford a service like Peleton, and I just don't buy into the idea that Amazon or Apple or some big tech will come along and eat this company. I think they have a better ability to scale the bikes and services making PTON a buyout in my opinion. Who says the acquiring tech company won't pay them $5/share? Buyer's beware.
NASDAQ:PTON
by DontSlamTheDoor
NIO rising from its downtrend.NIO double-bottomed in late December, this past Monday, and also back in November at the same level now drawn onto the chart in green. It is now above the POC line on the long-term volume profile suggests it was pushed there by buying pressure exceeding selling. Fundamentally, NIO is strong in China, TSLA lowered its price to be competitive and maintain market share. Easing of COVID lockdowns has helped boost production. Price has moved above the SMA 100 and SMA 300 on the rising uptrend. This appears to be a long trade setup.
NYSE:NIOLong
by AwesomeAvani
1
BITCOIN IS OVERBOUGHT! RSI shows the price will go back downTo everyone that is overly exited with Bitcoin right now... Calm down! Yes Bitcoin has rallied quite a bit for the past day, but don't jump on it too quickly because it is extremely overbought. As shown on the RSI, the price is largely above the 70 mark, meaning that people are buying excessively and that the price will soon come back down. If you gained from the bullish movement, think about selling soon and buying again when the price will come back down because it certainly will according to the RSI.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by YanakTrading
1
CrowdStrike Buy ZoneThe area that interests me is the supply zone notated by the Orange Rectangle. Aside from an obvious supply zone, CEO Roxanne Austin has purchased nearly $6 million in shares over the New Year holiday. Some speculate that growth is a concern, but that is a concern with all growth stocks; what if they were to stop growing? There's always a risk investing money into any company, but CRWD demonstrates it's value to shareholder's through it's outstanding customer retention rate, most fortune 500 companies use Crowdstrike Software. There is a solid short-term double bottom forming in the $90's. My price target is $104 short term and $150 + by EOY.
NASDAQ:CRWDLong
by DontSlamTheDoor
Scott's Miracle Grow WILL GROW!SMG strong buy ratings and solid financials make SMG a good Long Term Buy. The cannabis industry is helping build it's revenue from critical fertilizers and other materials that are it's core business. I honestly believe SMG is a stock that will double in the year. Mark my words Trading View! SMG will be a big winner! Also, buying SMG while it's under it's major moving averages is a much better strategy than waiting for a large break-out and trying to time it perfectly. I think accumulating SMG the next few months is a wise idea.
NYSE:SMGLong
by DontSlamTheDoor
LTC-USD : Assessing DemandI like what LTC could be ahead of its EoY forecasts.... this chart is a quick short term rally. Come Summer time the real festivities kick off. I will be adding LTC to the portfolio. I think its an excellent option for people who feel priced out of ethereum and bitcoin. The demand hasn't even really begun, anticipate steady demand & incremental climbs. Those who understand market will be able to leverage experience. Hypothetically bitcoin could go to 10k and i think consumer confidence would hold current pricing levels. Technicals signal strong buy.... and in discussions w/ peers we're in consensus on how good the return could be for LTC. I could see steady demand intensifying the closer we get too Q4. Temporary cooling periods are getting shorter and shorter. Those who understand Litecoin, will understand why we're climbing in steps. LTC loyalists know what time it is. Circle the months of June, & July.
Long
by BIG-BLACK-CRYPTO
Bitcoin showing bullish signsBitcoin has been showing bullish signs over the last couple of days, as the price of the crypto has been steadily climbing. Many investors and traders are optimistic that the bottom may very well be in. The recent rally in price can also be attributed to an increase in demand from both retail and institutional investors, who are buying into the cryptocurrency as a hedge against inflation. The overall sentiment in the market is positive and many believe that this trend is likely to continue in the coming days.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by h4x0rz3d
January EffectHello guys! Have you ever heard of the "January effect"? It's a pattern that has been observed in financial markets where the prices of small cap stocks tend to go up in the month of January. Some people think this happens because of tax-loss selling (when investors sell stocks that aren't doing well in order to reduce their tax burden) or because more people are interested in buying small cap stocks at the start of a new year. It's important to remember that the January effect isn't a sure thing and shouldn't be the only reason you make investment decisions. What do you think about this effect?
Editors' picks
BLACKBULL:US30Education
by m_maia14
10
📉ZBC to test:↓0.008068 or ↓0.005084I have circled January 23rd on my calendar as a date to observe how ZEBEC's price behaves at a certain intersection. As a high frequency trader who is accustomed to volatility and high risk, I am concerned about the lack of price stability. It is essential for the management to clarify their direction. I am puzzled by the unsustainable 300% APY on a 5-day lock-up and 50% on a 30-day lock-up offered. You know who else did that, companies like CELSIUS, VOYAGER, 3AC, and FTX. These token offerings seem more like a liquidity dump to me. Communication needs to be improved as well. Currently, there are two Twitter accounts, one Discord, and six or seven Telegram channels, which makes it difficult to keep track of updates. There isn't enough video content. A more centralized and organized approach to communication would improve social cohesion. I am also not a fan of the "zebec army" mentality. If we are not at war or planning to go to war, why act like an army? The constant farming for engagement and regurgitation of facts has taken away from my enjoyment of the project. Trying to cut through the noise is a minor annoyance, as i am empathetic.... but now we have an "army of ambassadors". To some its semantics, but to me i take it seriously. I like mass adoption w/out self-obstructing hurdles. I applied for the ambassador program, but have not heard back about when it will be implemented or who will be selected. Additionally, I have not received my USDT prize after participating in a giveaway two weeks ago. This has made me hesitant to participate in small giveaways. I only ever do so as a way to test a project's reliability. It seems that I am not the only one who has not been paid out... ZEBEC is currently running on Solana and BSC, but it is not as popular as the recently released memecoin called #BONK. Furthermore, the project has caused issues with GALXE and Cyberconnect, two major web3 schedulers on BSC. Now, the team is working with crew xyz, and after that, Quest or until we build our own... its going to get increasingly difficult to get the message out. I am located in a North America, and am focused on business and growth. However, I have become disenchanted with the way the project is being run. The farmed engagement is bot-like, which has taken away from my enjoyment of the project. I am rather patient, so don't take any of this as being harsh. The parroting is just noise, but its annoying. Perceived criticisms are intended to be guiding directions. As a ZEPOCH Node operator who is committed to the project, last i checked an insignificant number of nodes had been sold. However, I am not able to trade or sell my node until the 30,000th node is sold. While I am not interested in selling nor trading my node, I do have a vested interest in the project and believe that improvements need to be made... I'm hopeful things will turn around, but I'm not expecting an overnight makeover. Of course a bull run could change everything and anything.
Z
by BIG-BLACK-CRYPTO
2
BTC Dominance Structure Today I leave you with a rather interesting comparative analysis, introducing the much-studied and used concept of market capitalization dominance, in our case of Bitcon versus the rest of the crypto market. The graph structured by TView gives us in this case a percentage of market dominance, that of Bitcoin against altcoins, ideal for establishing migrations from bitcoin to altcoins according to their profitability at certain times or vice versa. In general, it is well known that altcoins take a little longer than bitcoin to raise their prices, but when this happens they skyrocket above their profitability, in the case of falls it is similar but inversely if bitcoin falls the alts tend to have much larger falls. The comparison that we bring today with the graph in red shows us the concept of numerical dominance, without percentages, in this case the amount in the top 80 Cryptos that are in annual profitability above Bitcoin. A very interesting concept that we will develop further in further analysis. ------------------------------------------- Hoy os dejo un análisis comparativo bastante interesante, introduciendo el tan estudiado y usado concepto de dominancia de capitalización de mercado, en nuestro caso de Bitcon frente al resto del criptomercado. El gráfico estructurado por TView nos da en este caso un porcentaje de dominancia de mercado, el de Bitcoin frente a las altcoins, ideal para establecer migraciones de bitcoin a altcoins según su rentabilidad en ciertos momentos o viceversa. Por lo general es bien sabido que las altcoins tardan algo mas que bitcoin en levantar sus precios, pero cuando esto se da se disparan por encima de su rentabilidad, en el caso de las caídas es similar pero a la inversa si bitcoin cae las alts tienden a tener caidas mucho mayores. La comparación que traemos hoy con el gráfico en rojo nos muestra el concepto de dominancia numérica, sin porcentajes, en este caso la cantidad en el top 80 Cryptos que se encuentran en rentabilidad anual por encima de Bitcoin. Un concepto muy interesante que desarrollaremos más a fondo en nuevos análisis.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by AVNGL01
TAL1T forming a nice cup and handle There has been significant insider buying in Dec 14th 2022 and also the passenger count has increased 80% in 2022 compared to 2021. Despite shareholders being diluted during covid and the company struggling during covid times, the recovery and the future looks good for Tallink and the revenue and profit are getting back to pre covid levels. This might be a good time to buy, as the stock could rally up to 40-50% in the coming year. The technical also looks good forming a cup and handle pattern, should be a good time to accumulate, the rally might start with the price breaking above 0.55 and might test the resistance at 0.60 and 0.68.
OMXTSE:TAL1TLong
by nirab
STILL BEARISH ON S&P 500From past analysis of mine, which I was heavily bearish on Stocks due to fundamentals implications like the rise in interest rates and the loss of Jobs, all of which makes the Stock market not a good place to pour in money to invest Based on technicals, Price is simply accumulating. I reckon that price would form some sort of AMD formation. Price would manipulate it's way to the FVG and probably the Daily Brearish Breaker Block before distributing to the sellside Liquidity below the current Price Study, Compare and contrast my past analysis on CURRENCYCOM:US500 to this current one.
UShort
by ifeanyichukwu_E
ETHUSDT - Break Out (Short Term Fun)From Dec 28th and onwards we see intense consolidation... its in the earliest hours of the New Year we see Eth in trajectory for a breakout. It would be interesting to see if current levels held. I like the probability of it rallying on the day beyond $1280--$1330 in price, that is where i have my hopeful eyes steered. However I'm quite content to get there in steps, I like a steady climb. . Its the start of the New Year and the whales will be getting their Fins wet w/ or without you. The 1.8% bump for ETH/USDT, was an uptick in Market Cap volume reflective of $3Bn+ over a 2 hr time frame It could be a good day for Ethereum hodlrs. The building on ETH is endless. Lmao where are these so called "Ethereum" killers... Solana is down 95.3% Technicals on the time frames indicate strong leaning towards it being a worthwhile hodl & I share similar if not the same sentiment RoadMap: Last year was Merge, this year is "SURGE" so upgrade 2023 will be in terms of scalability w/ sharding and rollups. As the gran daddy EVM other projects follow in its footsteps. We could see 100,000 TPS (if we're lucky) Concurrent Ecosystem Chain Upgrades: The Verge, The Purge, & the Splurge NFA/DYOR: Not your keys, not your crypto
Long
by BIG-BLACK-CRYPTO
Tesla price action down trendFundamentally, the company is strong. From pandemic till now its earnings just keep growing. Hence the company itself continues to make money. Price action, however says its downtrending which makes sense in that Elon did sell off a lot for twitter. Once that normalises, the price action will again follow the fundamentals. As long as Elon is the lead, I can firmly believe tesla will continue to do good as it leads in continuous innovation. If you're in long term investing, expect heavy bullish sentiment. If you're a trader, then ride the down trend.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by LittleSovi