Bitcoin longterm chartI thought it was time to make a longterm chart, with all these wrong charts going around, hehe.
They are wrong because bitcoins support and resistance lines are NOT linear in the logarithmic chart.
I think that the correct fit is a square root function in the logarithmic chart, meaning that the growth is slowing down on long timescales. BTC cannot just continue to grow exponentially. This would lead to insane prices of many millions in 2025.
I am a bitcoin longterm bull, but one has to remain realistic.
The cause of these growth cycles are the halvings, which lead to a supply shock with a subsequent rally. Every time.
These are all guesstimates of course, but I think this chart is realistic.
The very longterm goal of BTC, in 2030+, is at around 1 million USD imho. It won't go much higher afterwards, it can be seen as the final asymptotic price.
The next peaks should be at around 100k in 2022, and around 300k in 2026.
I hope this chart helps people understand the longterm growth dynamics of BTC :)
Growth
Bitcoin Ordinals: a new era for nfts or just a passing trend?Bitcoin NFTs are all the rage right now because of the launch and huge success of the "Ordinals" protocol. Ordinals provide a new way to create NFTs on the Bitcoin blockchain. The latest increase in Bitcoin resources is due to the launch of the CryptoPunks (Ethereum-based NFT) collection equivalent to Bitcoin. Although all the hype is meeting with mixed reactions from the web3 community. So what are Bitcoin ordinals?
What are NFT ordinals?
On January 21, software engineer Casey Rodarmor launched the Ordinals protocol on Bitcoin's blockchain. Each Bitcoin can be divided into 100,000,000 units called "sats" (short for Satoshi). This new protocol allows users and builders to inscribe each "sat" with data, known as ordinals. This data can also be smart contracts and then NFTs can be minted on them. In essence, the Ordinal protocol allows builders to create NFTs on the Bitcoin blockchain.
Furthermore, one of the key distinctions between Ethereum-based NFTs and Bitcoin is that Ethereum NFTs usually point to off-chain data on the IPFS system. With this protocol, all data is inscribed directly on-chain. "An Ordinal is meant to reflect what NFTs should be, sometimes are, and what inscriptions always are, by their very nature," Rodarmor says. This new ecosystem could benefit the NFT industry in general by enhancing the very concept of digital collectibles. In addition, because of the entirely on-chain data enrollment for Ordinals, Rodarmor refers to them as something beyond NFTs, calling them Digital Artifacts.
How do Bitcoin Punks change the game?
February 8th was just another day in the web3/nft space, until a Twitter profile with a dozen or so followers and a discord server with just 20 members appeared on the scene.
To make the BTC Punks website, the team of developers checked the hash of every image uploaded to Ordinals and compared it against the original 10k punk images. The links to Bitcoin Punks are the first-seen inscriptions (lowest ID) that contain these hashes on Ordinals. After a few hours, everything changed, and the storm of bitcoin punks began. The fomo spread quickly on Twitter and among the various discords, with a real onslaught of inscriptions of these punks, even slowing down the bitcoin network.
In many ways, Bitcoin Punks mean a new wave of NFT bitcoin, digital collectibles, and marketplaces. Bitcoin Punks are the first byte-perfect uploads of the original Ethereum CryptoPunks onto the Bitcoin Blockchain using Ordinals. The entire 10K collection minted out in less than 24hrs, with one Punk (#620) sold for 9.6 BTC (~$214,766.50). However, one of the problems with the project at the moment is that there is simply no market to buy and sell the cryptocurrency once minted. But this, of course, does not prevent the Web3 community from buying and selling the digital pieces.
So far more than 80k ordinals have been inscribed on Bitcoin's blockchain. There has also been a backlash against the entire protocol from Bitcoin maximalists. According to them, the whole idea of Bitcoin NFT is against Bitcoin as a financial resource. Some even argue that Ordinals are just a waste of network space compatible with Bitcoin.
How to actually purchase ordinals?
To purchase an NFT Ordinal , one must first download a Bitcoin-compatible wallet. I've been using a Sparrow since the beginning of this new "meta". Once done, the user must then follow a detailed guide from GitHub to make the BTC wallet compatible with Ordinals. Next, the user must run their Bitcoin node and inscribe an ordinal (which would not be possible with bitcoin punks now since the project has been minted). Then there are two other options available for people to purchase a BTC Ordinal NFT.
Using Emblem Vault and buy ordinals on OpenSea, with ethereum. Emblem Vault is a tokenized multi-asset wallet on the Ethereum blockchain that can contain one or more tokens or NFTs. You can use Emblem Vault to trade portfolios of NFTs and cryptocurrencies, including assets from different chains, as a single token. Most of the nfts collectors are using Emblem to buy and trade NFTs on Bitcoin.
The other easy way is to find ordinal owners and purchase it from them directly (OTC). Owners can be found on Discord servers. Browsing the link-your-project channel on their discord allows users to explore what Bitcoin projects are out there. This is, of course, a huge risk for potential customers, as the sites and discords could be total rugs. Also, unless there is trust between buyers and sellers of the project, it can lead to scams and fraud. In addition, BTC ordinals can take hours or even days to appear in your BTC wallet.
Create an Inscriptions.
Moving on, if you want to create/register an Ordinal yourself, there are services out there that allow this. The services allow users to register them without actually running a node. For example, the popular Bitcoin project Satoshibles has created an OrdinalsBot, which allows users to inscribe NFTs into their Bitcoin wallets. I personally used OrdinalsBot to inscribe Bitcoin Punks during the first day of "mint".
UBIX is a Silent bomb! This is why:The collaboration with the Acceleration Group: Surveillance footage notarized by silent notary (build on the Ubix network) is a huge accomplishment!
The Acceleration Group is far from a small company if you know what it is.... Just insane!
Also the collaboration with Langia, just amazing...!
The REAL USE CASE the Ubix Network Team is providing is just stunning!
People, UBX is/was hidden for a reason. I have no doubt this protocol is going to explode in the near future. It provides an actual real life use cases on global scale... And will provide much more in the future.
The growth of the protocol is from self speaking. USE CASE + USE CASE + USE CASE + GLOBE = ECONOMIC GROWTH TREMENDOUSLY!
Fundamental UBIX passes the test!
Mind blowing!
WSC - WillScot Mobile Mini HoldingsSimple base breakout accompanied by a surge in volume, albeit not a massive surge. Would like to see continued volume surges to get a cushion to allow for a hold thru earnings on 2/21.
Great growth numbers, earnings & sales accelerating at a strong pace on a YoY & QoQ basis.
AMZN - Victim Of Its Own SuccessAmazon, Inc. What's wrong with that title? It's not quite the official name of the company. The company colloquially referred to as "Amazon" by anybody and everybody from my Grandfather to teenage girls at my high school, both looking to shamelessly devolve into consumerism from the nearest smartphone or web browser, has an undeniable grip on the modern world. The correct name for AMZN, as it's listed on the NASDAQ, is Amazon.com, Inc. This title, a remnant of its dotcom era IPO, indirectly serves today to remind investors of Amazon.com, Inc's massively profitable cloud computing division, which operates completely separately from its retail division, and which pushed its common stock to almost a 1.7 Trillion dollar valuation at the end of 2021.
It's hard to say anything bad about Amazon.com, Inc's cloud computing business. Its market share is larger than Google and Microsoft's share combined in the same industry (Q3 2022 Data according to Statista). Big names like Netflix, Facebook, and Twitter use their services. Their service quality is high and has data centers around the globe. Its growing extremely fast.
The Catch: Current macroeconomic headwinds are causing many businesses to cut back spending, and AWS is seeing this effect their bottom line. AWS still grew 20% year over year in Q4, but short of the expected 27.5%. This moderate slowing in its massive growth might be normally acceptable by investors to some degree.
Except, it's not. AMZN trades at a sky-high PE of 68; After already losing more than 700 Million dollars in market cap since its peak in 2021. This ratio relies heavily on aggressive growth models for the company.
AMZN's PE ratio has always been this way. Overzealous investors have been willing to pay this premium to get ahead of the massive profits AWS consistently posted. In many tech companies, excessive growth valuations have often been justified by certain rock solid keystone statistics (think: META's daily user count). Yet, growth is in practice finite, and a peak in these statistics forces multiples return to earth. The current market conditions and complex nature of the cloud computing industry could make the peak more difficult for investors to identify, but barring explosive cloud growth in future quarters, the multiple normalization process will take place.
Disclaimer
The information and publications here are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations. Conduct your own research and consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Small Cap Growth (VBK) - Time to consider?The VBK small cap growth ETF is showing 305 price target on Stockcharts.com P&F, which would be 32% above Friday 2/3 close.
On the monthly Chart (not shown) VBK has posted a .618 retrace from 3/20 the low to the 11/21 high; .382 resistance is the next level on the monthly is 236.68.
On the daily chart (not shown), we have a 21/50 EMA daily crossover, but the 50 day EMA is still well below the 200 day EMA. The money flow index on the daily has been tailing off since 1/17 while riding an over bought RSI(9) since 1/17.
The weekly chart (shown above) shows VBK entering into Ichimoku cloud resistance, and a weekly resistance at a Gann confluence at 238.63. The latest up leg from 10.10 looks extended (blue Point D is near 1.61). The positive is that the VBK has soundly rejected the downward regression channel from 2022 high to low.
Small caps have in general less pricing power than the large caps(unless they hold a special niche). Passing on price increases to compensate for higher input costs can be more difficult. Easing inflation will benefit small caps, but tight labor market does not.
I do not see a 305 target on VBK anytime in the near future. I also do not see (unless there is a Swan event) lower lows. I do see sideways action inside the red cloud for the near future. Small cap growth is not for me unless I find one of those niche situations with superb financials.
AMZN earnings todayAMZN Q4 earnings are today, 2/2 at 4pm. Amazon (AMZN) reported Q3 September 2022 earnings of $0.28 per share on revenue of $127.1 billion. The consensus earnings estimate was $0.22 per share on revenue of $126.4 billion. Revenue grew 14.7% on a year-over-year basis. The company said it expects Q4 revenue of $140 billion to $148 billion. Here's an AMZN 1 week chart with the past 8 earnings reports PE, EPS, revenue, cash & debt data indicators. Plus 2/3, 2/17 and 3/17 expiry options data.
Q4 December 2022 Consensus:
EPS = 0.15
Revenue = $145.40B
P/E = 96.5
Q3 September 2022:
EPS = 0.28 beat +35.53%
Revenue = $127.10B miss -0.29%
Cash = $35.17B
Debt = $128.25B
Q2 June 2022:
EPS = -0.20 miss -270.72%
Revenue = $121.23B beat 1.76%
Cash = $37.7B
Debt = $124.577B
Q1 March 2022:
EPS = -0.38 miss -190.58%
Revenue = $116.44B miss -0.53%
Cash = $36.6B
Debt = $113.287B
Q4 December 2022:
EPS = 1.39 beat +657.12%
Revenue = $137.41B miss -0.13%
Cash = $36.48B
Debt = $116.395B
2/3/23 expiry options data:
Put Volume Total 91,854
Call Volume Total 141,512
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.65
Put Open Interest Total 232,469
Call Open Interest Total 286,708
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.81
2/17/23 expiry options data:
Put Volume Total 35,737
Call Volume Total 130,457
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.27
Put Open Interest Total 368,246
Call Open Interest Total 646,114
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.57
3/17/23 expiry options data
Put Volume Total 20,571
Call Volume Total 55,465
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.37
Put Open Interest Total 402,933
Call Open Interest Total 659,330
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.61
TSLA - In Bottom FormationTSLA is in bottom formation. It broke its trendline resistance with strong buying volumes and formed breakaway gap during announcement of its quarterly results.
This giant of electric vehicles stayed in topping zone for almost 2 years. Topping is a phase when a stock lacks any clear direction of movement and keeps swinging between a price range.
After formation of topping zone, TSLA followed imminent decline after breaking down the support of $200 price level. Recently, however, TSLA has seen a turnaround with the support of large buying volumes.
Now TSLA's next flight depends on its upcoming quarterly earnings. If it continues its growth, it could reach its all-time high (ATH) of $400. And if growth continues, it could surpass $400 level in the years to come.
ARHS - Arhaus, Inc.Very nice reaction off of the 9ema this morning. Largest 30-min volume since the gap up on raised revenue guidance.
Started a small position; couldn't justify a full position with the overall market being slightly extended on a short-term basis and showing negative action on the day.
Will look to add over the debut price high of $14 only if the broad market continues its bullish phase. The all-time-high of 14.95 looms overhead, but with the volume & growth on this name, I'd expect it to clear that level as long as the market environment remains favorable.
The FOMC decision and statement on Wednesday will have a major impact on the market environment. Even if I am shaken out of this starter position, I'm keeping this one on my focus list for as long as the environment remains healthy. This has the potential to be a true market leader.
GRIN. Holdings Ltd. for steady growth in global shippinJoin the smart investors who are banking on Grindrod Shipping Holdings Ltd for steady growth in the global shipping industry. With a diversified portfolio, strong financials, and experienced management team.
Diversified Shipping Services: Grindrod provides a diversified range of shipping services, including dry bulk shipping, liquid bulk shipping, and container shipping, which can potentially provide stability and reduce dependence on any single business segment.
Emerging Markets Exposure: has a significant presence in emerging markets, which can offer growth potential as these economies continue to develop and demand for shipping services increases.
Strong Financial Performance: has a history of strong financial performance, with steady revenue growth and profitability, which can indicate a well-run and efficiently managed company.
Growing Demand for Shipping Services: The global shipping industry is expected to grow as a result of increasing trade and economic activity, which can provide tailwinds for Grindrod's business.
Experienced Management Team: has an experienced management team with a strong track record of running the company and making strategic decisions, which can provide confidence to potential investors.
It's important to keep in mind that this is just one possible investment thesis and that past performance is not a guarantee of future results. It's crucial to conduct thorough research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
BROS - Dutch Bros Inc.One of the longer-term plays I am watching. IPO'd back in 2021, they don't have much in the way of current earnings, but analyst estimates are expecting big growth over the next couple of years.
Starting to inch its way up the right side of a possible stage 1 base on good volume. Don't need to rush into buying this one - need to let it show me that it is in fact ready to go. As of now, it's still in a downtrend regardless of the constructive action since the start of the year.
AMKR - Amkor Technology, Inc.Top of my focus list going into the upcoming week. Growth numbers are good, increasing number of funds buying shares, earnings still two weeks away.
On a technical basis, a surge in volume took prices thru some key highs and now we're seeing an orderly consolidation with good looking volume patterns.
Ideally, we get another volume surge that takes us thru last week's highs around 30.50.
US30 Looks Ready to Break!I've just gotten done rolling through 30-minute charts for the Dow 30 and it seems this move higher is losing steam. Will there be a closing in the red today, signalling a bearish jump start to next week?
USD/JPY BUYBUY. Coming to the conclusion market will see bull momentum in the next couple hours, due to JPY consumer staples/consumer price rising, I have projected consumer staples/cpi prices rise to 61% fib creating opportunity for USD to advance, USD economic sentiment has been exceptional as expected and should continue its bullish momentum.
USD/JPY expected to finish temp retracement before the bull run trade which will be Entry @130.100
TP1@130.419, TP2@130.851, TP3@131.228
Growth stock's hiatus ?Growth stocks outperform value stocks most of the time on a weekly chart of $VUG / $VTV, Vanguard's growth and value elf's respectively.
Since the start of the 2022 bear market that relationship has reversed and, in August 2022, broke both horizontal support as well as a 14 year long diagonal support.
These breakouts are being retested now, in January 2023. The outcome can impact both trading and long term investing strategy.
For reference:
$SPY in the bottom pane. Today's close: 400.35
Fib tool (not formal analysis)
How to double your small ($250) trading account trading Bitcoin How to Double your Small ($250) Trading Account Trading Bitcoin
I started a degen account with $250 and almost doubled it in 4 days making about 6 trades. This strategy is not Financial advice and I'm only illustrating what I have learnt trading this way. This is the first video in the series and I'll be continuing the series , updating you on progress, winners, losses, my trading journal and some live trading, so make sure to Sub, like comment and share.
I show you how I entered my current trade, where I am looking to take profits and show you my pnl on Bybit.
Not Financial Advice. DYOR. Papertrade before trading with real money.
Hope you have a profitable trading day!
Shawn