THE MOST IMPORTANT FOREX FUNDAMENTALS 📰
Hey traders,
Even though I am a pure technician and I rely only on technical analysis when I trade, we can not deny the fact that fundamentals are the main driver of the financial markets.
In this post, we will discuss the most important fundamentals that affect forex market.
📍Unemployment rate.
Unemployment rate reflects the percentage of people without a job in a selected country or region.
Rising unemployment rate usually signifies an unhealthy state of the economy and negatively affects the currency strength.
📍Housing prices.
Housing prices reflect people's demand for housing. Rising rate reflects a healthy state of the economy, strengthening purchasing power of the individuals and their confidence in the future.
Growing demand for housing is considered to be one of the most important drivers in the economy.
📍Inflation.
Inflation reflects the purchasing power of a currency.
It is usually measured by evaluation of the price of the selected basket of goods or services over some period.
High inflation is usually the primary indicator of the weakness of the currency and the unhealthy state of the economy.
📍Monetary policy.
Monetary policy is the actions of central banks related to money supply in the economy.
There are two main levers: interests rates and bank reserve requirements.
Higher interest rates suppress the economy, making the currency stronger. Lower interests rates increase the money supply, making the economy grow but devaluing the national currency.
📍Political discourse.
Political discourse is the social, economical and geopolitical policies of the national government.
Political ideology determines the set of priorities for the ruling party that directly impacts the state of the economy.
📍Payrolls and earnings.
Payroll reports reflect the dynamic of the creation of new jobs by the economy, while average earnings show the increase or decrease of the earnings of the individuals.
Growing earnings and payrolls positively affect the value of a national currency and signify the expansion of the economy.
Pay closes attention to these fundamentals and monitor how the market reacts to that data.
What fundamentals do you consider to be the most important?
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Growth
DUOL Overview and Prediction
In the most recent two-quarters, DUOL has sold off ahead of earnings and then rebounded sharply after reporting earnings beats. Coming into this quarter price action is reversed. DUOL has experienced a strong rally from a quarter ago, clocking in over a 50% gain from the lows of their Q1 2022 earnings in May. This bullish short-term momentum might just be stomped out by this quarter's earnings.
The technical picture for DUOL is somewhat poor, especially in recent trading days. The support trend line has held nicely with three consecutive touches and rebounds. However, with a major event coming up (earnings on 8/4), DUOL may slide well below this support trend line and revisit support zones at/around 84.8, 75.4, and 66.55. The recent bull run makes me increasingly confident in this thesis, as earnings would have to be out of this world positive for any substantial upside gain in my opinion.
Fundamentally, DUOL appears weak. Simply put, Duolingo is overvalued and generates negative profits. There are way too many macroeconomic/geopolitical issues for tech and growth to perform well (at least for the coming 2-3 years). The idea that DUOL, an IPO with no earnings and expected revenue for this year at 267 mil should be valued anywhere near 4 billion dollars seems a bit foolish.
Duolingo's weak technical and fundamental health combined with an unprecedentedly problematic global macro picture prompt me to predict the following: It is a matter of time until this stock falls and eventually forms new lows. It may not be this quarter's earnings that trigger DUOl's stock to move lower, but it will happen eventually... unprofitable growth is the wrong place to be in this environment.
As always this is not meant to be trading advice. Good luck!
$VSBGF VSBLTY Groupe UpdateBroader markets are pulling back and $VSBGF has found it's footing. There's been recent communication from the CEO regarding partnerships and what's shaping up to be potential of an acquisition (rumor).
VSBLTY continues to land deals and the recent fundraising wasn't received well in the markets during a down cycle... but peeling back the layers, it's evident this isn't a dilution so much as giving runway for takeoff.
The market downturn has impacted the price, but it's not throwing money away imo... I am continuing to DCA into a company with a significant value add to to retail and security.
Strong Buy from my perspective.
BIG EUR DAY!We have several high-impact German data for the EUR coming out this session today. Germany is the largest strength contributor to the EUR out of the basket of countries that compose this fiat. Expect some wild moves depending on that German data and do not underestimate the power of patience. I will know my bias after data release - respond to price, do not chase or react - ALWAYS respond. Trade safe GL
Bitcoin BTC - New bull market just started! Elliott Wave + Wedge
The price is currently above 22 000 USD and we have had a capitulation wick to 17 600 USD to kick out high leverage traders.
I do not see any reason why bitcoin should not respect the previous all time high support from 2017 (around 20 000 USD)!
Bitcoin on the weekly chart is currently sitting on the main support: Previous 2017 Swing high + 0.382 FIB + ABC correction completed!
The price is forming a falling wedge pattern, which is definitely a good sign that can lead to a new bullish trend.
As per my Elliott wave analysis - ABC correction (ZigZag 5-3-5) should be completed successfully and we can start a complete new impulse wave.
Only Bitcoin is a safe bet for the longterm. It's the best store of value and altcoins are awesome for short-term to mid-term massive gains.
I expect tremendous pumps for selected altcoins, you can find them in the related section down below ↓
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BNBUSDT Looks good LONGHello everyone
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The Binance coin looks not bad in the channel, I expect the breakdown of the $260 zone, then the path to $280 will be opened
Mid-Cap Growth This is a 6-month chart of iShares Russell Mid-Cap Growth ETF (IWP) relative to the performance of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY).
IWP tracks a market-cap-weighted index of growth companies.
The yellow and orange lines are the exponential moving averages that form the indicator called the EMA exp ribbon. The EMA exp ribbon usually acts as support when price hits it from above, and usually acts as resistance when price hits it from below. To break the EMA exp ribbon, and reverse the trend, usually, a single candlestick must pierce through the ribbon (moving averages) with high volume and strong momentum. In this case, the EMA exp ribbon held up as support.
Here we see that mid-cap growth stocks have corrected on the longer timeframes and will likely start to move back up relative to SPY. If this holds true, we can expect that mid-cap growth stocks will begin to outperform the broader index over the long term. For those who invest on longer time horizons, this could be a great time to consider legging into IWP. If you're conservative, you may wish to wait for IWP to breakout above the daily EMA exp ribbon before entering a position.
The current 6-month candle, which started on July 1st, is showing a long upper wick, which indicates that capitulation is still occurring. Capitulation can be seen in candlesticks that occur after a long downtrend, and which have long upper wicks. These long upper wicks after a long downtrend indicate that there are people selling, or shorting, into strength. These market participants usually need to exit before a major bullish breakout occurs.
For the month of June, IWP/SPY printed a bullish spinning top candle (which is a bottom reversal candle). So it's likely that we're in the final stages of capitulation, and soon enough a bullish breakout will occur, (assuming that the relative performance chart accurately predicts price action).
IntraDay Trading Strategy Compilation 2 (BTC)On this occasion we are going to look for a rebound in the low zone or change of character, where the price action in Bitcoin should seek new highs after the programmed short, the exit at 1:3 of risk: profit margin is the minimum tradable in my accounts.
I Hope you enjoy that content and could operarte without emotions. ;D
If you understand this chart, you are not bullish for markets.If you understand this chart, you are not bullish for the U.S. / World Markets - (Opinion)
So I watch a lot of indexes for research purposes and fun honestly. Seeing how different sectors of finance move when fundamental, sentiment and technical news influences them has always been interesting to me. Recently while researching I came across a chart that made my heart sink. I never really experienced this in my life, as I've been studying monetary policy and trading for years at this point. This is the Hang Sang Index put up in contrast with the DOW Jones Industrial Average. Before you read this article do you know why I'm mirroring these two indexes? What assumptions can you take from these charts? Can you predict any high probability assumptions from your conclusions?
Let me break this down from a first principles perspective, which is the way I love teaching the most.
When looking at markets, the price action is moved through supply and demand. Especially when looking at indexes of these sorts, as they are largely referenced from the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of a country, along with many other factors, of course.
When we look at these two indexes we notice that the HSI is slightly trailing the DOW over most of the time period. Why is this? It's because China is the worlds largest, supplier and conversely, the U.S. is the worlds largest demander. An assumption we can make here is that in more cases than not their markets move first due to this factor. This makes sense though, the west cannot generate a profit unless it has the materials for the goods and resources it wishes to produce and we need to pay before we receive those resources, in most cases.
So what can we extrapolate from all of this information? Well, HSI could in some cases be a leading indicator for the DOW and how the American markets will move and this can be confirmed on a macro level in this chart. Most of the major market crashes over the last 2 years can be viewed on this chart and if I had more data (Trading View) only had D going back to 2019) I'm sure I could show you much more correlation to these charts.
What's most concerning is where our markets and also geopolitical landscapes our markets are currently involved in. With supply chains breaking down around the world on continental size scales the availability and in some cases the sanctions being implemented around the world has thrown into effect one of the largest global financial crises I think we've seen in well over 250 years. Now this is why I wrote opinion on the top, because going back in the American Markets, the closest thing in the last 100 years I could put this into perspective to is of course, the Great Depression. Not to be confused with the Great Recession of 2008. I am saying I believe this is WORSE than what we've seen in over 100 years.
The U.S., EU, China and Russia's economies are making it increasingly difficult for free and fair trade around the world and we can see this in the large economic collapse we've seen since the end of 2019. The World Reserve Currency is now being attacked by several continents and it is safe to say the currency wars how now started between nations. You can see this in what many world economies have done to destabilize the U.S. Dollar. Things like the first time Russia defaulted on their debt in over 100 years. Chinas entire financial system in one of the worst shapes it has been in, ever. They are also "not able" to pay back a large amount of their debt to us in a U.S. Dollar amount. Tables are turning and this is why in America, they are seeing supply chains of their own breaking down. Prices of all of their commodities, goods & services skyrocketing. Cost of living in general becoming so expensive that repo and default rates are at decades long highs.
The decentralization of American goods & services was one of its best and worst ideas ever. It was amazing because it was able to outsource the materials and people it needed to create one of the largest market systems the world has ever known, but it's key to working is in the fair trade, positive affiliate and respect between the buyer & seller that makes that possible. When in a war-time economy as I believe we can safely say we are in, all chips are off the table.
I hope you understand what I'm trying to say here. Just a thought that's been on my mind the last couple months. I wish everyone peace love and prosperity <3 - Watson
VSBLTY Groupe VSBGF Continues Growing$VSBGF recently took a dip, not only because of the broader "risk-off" environment and economic headwinds... recently announcing 16.7 million shares at a $0.30 offering with a warrant for additional purchase of common stock at $0.50 as well as private sale of 10 mil units for $3 million USD.
Market response was bearish, on the surface this is seemingly bad as shareholders are diluted... however, peeling back the layers reveals Jay (CEO) and team are continuing to land big partnerships and agreements in the retail space.
DYOR and you'll find tremendous building tailwinds and a company delivering against a bullish impermanent plan and a very bright future.
Their tech is innovative and a significant value add to the market. Don't lose sight of what they're doing and don't fall asleep as the delivery begins yielding more revenue and in short order, profits.
Silver Bullet Mines Major AchievementSilver has been beaten down and is pairings to bounce higher given rampant inflation and global economic strain. Both silver and copper are critical to industries including things like solar panel manufacturing for silver and electrical vehicle manufacturing for copper.
Silver Bullet Mines just announced it has successfully produced its first silver concentrate yesterday 7/12/2022at its wholly owned 125 metric ton per day mill near Globe, AZ.
They expect to produce copper from their Buckeye mine as well and have experienced no major setbacks, positioned now to achieve further milestones and increase production.
Both the mill and the Buckeye Mine are 100% controlled by SBMI.
Incredible opportunity at an incredible entry point with an ultra low cap early stage mining company.
Where US30 Is headed to next?Us30 has taken bearish hits since the beginning of this year. If it stays below $33,480 and continues back to the lows at 29,670 and further, we could see further decline.
Not only for US30, but for the stocks within the index. Before that happens price could pullback towards 32,500 giving the buyers some opportunity and hopes of recovery. That's just a thought until it happens.
For now, the Dow is bearish and if there is hopes of true recovery price will have to push up pass 33,480 and continue up from there.