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S&P EMAs at Historical Critical PointCME_MINI:ES1! So I opened the chart at the weekend and flicked through the time frames and upon punching the Weekly I noticed the 21EMA and the 89EMAs were pretty tight. I decided the rest of the morning looking through the historical relationship of these two EMAs. It turns out that each time the 21EMA has come down to the 89EMA, there has been a violent reaction. In general, when there are moderate to minimal macros effecting the markets, this reaction represents a strong opportunity to long. In fact, the 21EMA has never dipped below the 89EMA and recovered until months to years later. On the flip side, on the two occasions the 21EMA did dip below the 89EMA, was in 2001 and 2008...two very significant moments in market history. I also noted that once the break happens the S&P tends to bottom at around 40%-50% of that breaking point. If we were to use today's valuation, a 45% drop from today is around 2200. That is also the bottom of the COVID crash i.e. where the real market was going to be trading before infinite stimulus was provided by the Fed. I found this interesting as it seems in these troubling times and with a 'nuclear winter' around the corner in Europe, there is a real macro concern for markets. I'm leaning bearish and I think this rally will fail like every rally this year and lead the 21EMA below the 89EMA. Obviously, I react to the chart and should there be a strong reaction off the touch upwards, I will be flipping bullish.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Zeahl_Capital
2
BULLISH GOLD!!(trying to hit ATH)Hello guys ,Today i saw an ascending channel on gold. the price is trying to breakout and hit ATH. open your position after the price hit the local support.(wait for green candle,don't open your position fast !) first target is about 2060.(it's safe to close your position, but you can risk for more profit) but if it's going to continue the scenario , you can close your order on 2074. it's just an idea , always do your research and analysis. don't forget to follow and boost this idea :) thank you.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Crypto2021_2021
Is BTCUSD ready for a huge rally because of banking crunchThis MVRV indicator shows Bitcoin has reached its most recent bottom. It also has broken through its HKEX:29 ,000 resistant point, which could drive Bitcoin further up. Another factor driving Bitcoin is the crumbling U.S. banking system, even though mainstream media will not report it. As a result, Bitcoin is at a critical point to be looked upon as a potential hedge against all the coming calamities in the Western markets.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
ENPH: Energize Your Investments with a Leading Solar CompanyOne key factor that makes ENPH an attractive investment opportunity is the rapid growth of the solar energy market. According to a report by the International Energy Agency, solar power is expected to become the largest source of electricity by 2035, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18% from 2020 to 2025. As a leading provider of energy management systems, ENPH is well-positioned to benefit from this trend. In addition, ENPH has a strong financial position. The company has consistently posted strong revenue growth over the past few years, with a revenue CAGR of 50.4% and 67.8% from 2015 to 2020. Furthermore, the company has a solid balance sheet with no long-term debt and a healthy cash reserve. This financial stability puts ENPH in a strong position to weather any potential economic downturns or market volatility. Finally, ENPH has a strong track record of innovation and product development. The company has a robust research and development program and has consistently introduced new and innovative products to the market. This positions ENPH to stay ahead of its competitors and to maintain its position as a leader in the solar energy industry. In summary, ENPH is a strong investment opportunity due to its position in the growing solar energy market, strong financial position, and track record of innovation and product development.
NASDAQ:ENPH
by CAPFINEX
🐕Review of the Dogecoin(DOGE) Project🐕Hello! Today, let's review one of the ✴️cryptocurrency projects ✴️ which is the talk of the town these days, Dogecoin . Today's project name is ⚛️ Dogecoin , shown as DOGE token⚛️. As I have said before, I evaluate crypto projects based on various factors .👇 I have already introduced each of these factors with a brief explanation, so today, I will be looking at DOGE . 🔥Let’s get into it: 🔰🔰🔰🔰🔰🔰 ✅ Project Goals : Dogecoin was created in 2013 as a joke. Dogecoin's goals are centered around creating a fun😁, friendly, and inclusive cryptocurrency that anyone can easily use and access. Dogecoin is the start of what is known today as “meme coins”. One of the main aims of Dogecoin is to be a fast and low-cost alternative to other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, making it ideal for everyday transactions and small purchases. But the aim to be an alternative to Bitcoin was made as a joke to stop the Bitcoin maximalists from spreading toxicity in the Bitcoin community💬. This is why I have rated Dogecoin’s project goals 4/10. ✅ Founders : Dogecoin was created in 2013 by two software engineers, Billy Markus and Jackson Palmer. Markus, who had previously worked for IBM, developed the technical aspects of the cryptocurrency, while Palmer, a product manager at Adobe, came up with the idea to base it on the popular "Doge" meme featuring a Shiba Inu dog🐕. Initially created as a joke or a "fun" cryptocurrency, Dogecoin gained popularity among internet communities, especially on Reddit, and became known for its friendly and inclusive culture. Markus and Palmer both stepped away from the project in 2015, with Markus citing personal reasons and Palmer expressing concerns about the cryptocurrency industry's direction. Since then, Dogecoin has been maintained and developed by a decentralized community of supporters and developers with no official leadership or centralized authority. Therefore I have scored Dogecoin’s founders 7/10. ✅ GitHub : Dogecoin's GitHub is an open-source repository where the source code for the Dogecoin cryptocurrency is stored, managed, and updated. It is a central hub for developers and contributors to collaborate on the project and make changes to the codebase. The GitHub repository also includes various resources and documentation for developers and users, such as technical guides, FAQs, and release notes. Dogecoin's open-source nature allows for transparency and community involvement in developing and maintaining the cryptocurrency. The Dogecoin GitHub repository has more than 270 contributors with over 14,000 commits. That is why I have scored Dogecoin’s GitHub 8/10. ✅ Inflation Rate : Dogecoin has a unique inflationary monetary policy that sets it apart from other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Unlike Bitcoin, which has a fixed supply of 21 million coins, Dogecoin has an unlimited supply, with 5 billion new coins added to circulation each year. The inflation rate of Dogecoin is fixed at 5.26% per year, meaning that the total supply of Dogecoin will increase by approximately 5.26% each year. This inflation rate is designed to ensure that there will always be new coins available to incentivize miners to continue verifying transactions and securing the network. I have scored Dogecoin’s inflation rate 6/10. ✅ Community : Dogecoin's community is known for its fun, friendly, and inclusive culture, which has played a significant role in the cryptocurrency's success and popularity. The community is made up of a diverse group of supporters, including investors, developers, traders, and enthusiasts, who are passionate about the currency and its mission. The Dogecoin community is highly active on social media platforms, especially Twitter and Reddit, where they often share memes, jokes, and updates about the cryptocurrency. One of the unique features of the Dogecoin community is its strong sense of humor and lightheartedness. The currency's logo features the Shiba Inu dog, which has become a popular meme on the internet, and the community often celebrates milestones with humorous memes and jokes. Also, Elon Musk is an active member of the Dogecoin community with a significant impact on the project. Since Elon Musk is an extremely influential figure, he has managed to impact Dogecoin’s price through tweets, accepting CRYPTOCAP:DOGE for the sale of certain Tesla products, and even most recently that he changed Twitter’s logo to Dogecoin’s logo for a week. Due to this, I have scored Dogecoin’s community 9/10. ✅ Whitepaper : Dogecoin does not have a formal whitepaper in the traditional sense, as it was created as a fork of Litecoin and was initially intended to be a joke or a "fun" cryptocurrency. However, the original codebase for Dogecoin is publicly available on its GitHub repository, and it provides a technical overview of the currency's features and functionality. Since the project does not have a whitepaper, I have scored it 1/10. ✅ Developers : Dogecoin's development team is largely comprised of volunteers and community members who contribute to the project on a part-time basis. The original codebase for Dogecoin was created by programmers Billy Markus and Jackson Palmer, who have since left the project. Since then, the Dogecoin development team has expanded to include several core contributors and maintainers who oversee the ongoing development and maintenance of the currency. Some of the current core contributors include Ross Nicoll, Patrick Lodder, and Max Keller, among others. The development team works closely with the broader Dogecoin community to solicit feedback, implement new features, and address any issues or bugs that arise. The team is known for its collaborative and transparent approach to development, with regular updates and discussions on social media and other online platforms. Therefore I have scored Dogecoin’s developers 7/10. ✅ Tokenomics : Dogecoin is inflationary which means it does not have a maximum total supply. Dogecoin’s tokenomics include a few key features mentioned below: Inflationary supply : Dogecoin has an inflationary monetary policy, with 5 billion new coins added to circulation each year. Fixed block rewards : Dogecoin miners receive a fixed block reward of 10,000 DOGE per block. This reward is designed to incentivize miners to continue verifying transactions and securing the network. Fast block times : Dogecoin has a fast block time of just one minute, which helps to facilitate quick transactions. But an important factor to keep in mind is that 50% of Dogecoin’s current circulating supply is held just by the top 20 wallet addresses. This makes Dogecoin extremely centralized in terms of ownership. Therefore I have scored Dogecoin’s tokenomics 4/10. ✅ Venture Capital Investors : Dogecoin is a decentralized cryptocurrency and does not have any official VC investors. As a community-driven project, Dogecoin was initially created as a fun and lighthearted fork of Litecoin and has since gained popularity and support from a diverse group of enthusiasts, investors, and traders. While Dogecoin does not have any VC investors, it has received attention from various high-profile individuals, including Elon Musk, who has been known to tweet about the cryptocurrency and show support for its community. Due to this, I have scored Dogecoin’s VC investors 5/10, even though it does not have any official investors. ✅ Competitor Comparison : Dogecoin is often compared to other meme-inspired cryptocurrencies, which have gained popularity in recent years. Here are some points of comparison between Dogecoin and some of its notable meme coin competitors: Shiba Inu (SHIB) : Shiba Inu is a meme-inspired cryptocurrency that was created in 2020. Like Dogecoin, it features a cute dog as its mascot, and it has a community-driven culture. However, Shiba Inu has a larger total supply and has faced criticism for its lack of transparency and governance. SafeMoon (SAFEMOON) : SafeMoon is a cryptocurrency that was created in 2021 and has gained a significant following in a short amount of time. It features a unique tokenomics structure that incentivizes holders to keep their coins in their wallets, which is very ponzi-like. Therefore SafeMoon has faced criticism for its lack of transparency and the potential risks associated with its tokenomics structure. Akita Inu (AKITA) : Akita Inu is a meme-inspired cryptocurrency that was created in 2021. It features a dog as its mascot, and it has gained some popularity among crypto investors. However, Akita Inu has a smaller community and less widespread adoption compared to Dogecoin. Therefore I have scored Dogecoin 9/10 compared to its competitors. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 🔔 In conclusion , Dogecoin obtained a total score of 6/10 which is average. But the important point is that Dogecoin is a meme coin after all, which means it will only have value as long as the community stays active and works for the project’s growth. The thing is, there is a high chance of people getting tired of one meme coin and moving on to a newer, more trending one. So if you are thinking of buying some DOGE, it’s best not to put in more money than you are completely comfortable with losing. Many great teams in the crypto space are working on the latest technology in order to build platforms, applications, and protocols that will increase crypto adoption and create a better experience for crypto users. Therefore, in my opinion, it’s best to invest your money in those types of projects instead of meme coins.
by pejman_zwin
4
Twitter logo changes to DOGECOIN pupHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of the Charts 📈📉 Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Bullish for Dogecoin? In recent developments, entrepreneur and philanthropist Elon Musk changes his recently acquired Twitter logo to the Dogecoin Face. Bet you didn't have that on your bingo cards for 2023 ! Although I believe in the strategy of "selling the news" , I do believe that Dogecoin will explode after a short pullback. From a technical analysis, my first target would be the Fibonacci Retracement at 0.236 as pointed out on the chart. After Elon Musk has successfully acquired Twitter for $44 billion (which has caused a surge in the value of cryptocurrencies, particularly Dogecoin), he has decided to change the look and feel of Twitter. One might image him asking, "why so blue?" Dogecoin, which was initially created as a joke in 2013, has gained popularity due to Musk's support, who has referred to it as the "people's crypto" and the "future currency of Earth". Musk has also implemented Dogecoin as a payment method for his companies, SpaceX and Tesla, and proposed using it as a payment method for Twitter's premium service. Incase you missed it, here's everything you need to know about the DXY and the dangers of losing it as the world reserve currency 👀 _______________________ 📢 Show us some LOVE 🧡 Follow for daily updates and trade ideas on Crypto , Stocks , Forex and Commodities 💎 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
Long
by CryptoCheck-
39
Crude Oil Breakout Struggling for Follow ThroughWe started this week off with a massive gap higher from WTI crude, but where is the follow through? The jump from Friday to Monday makes sense on the OPEC production cut news, but the EIA reporting US strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) hit their lowest levels since the week of Nov 25, 1983 barely offers a hiccup of demand-backed bullish interest. It could be that today's ISM service sector report from the US has revived recession concerns and thereby curbed the demand picture on a higher level, but intraday price action doesn't really give much weight to that view for me. Seeing inside days on very narrow range sessions after a massive gap higher is striking. Keeping an eye on the 82.50 range high that stretches back to November and then the 38.2% Fib of the bull run from April 2020 low (cutting out the inversion) to June 2022 high at ~83.15. And just above that we have the 200-day SMA at ~84.30. Are technicals overriding fundamental drive?
NYMEX:CL1!
by JohnKicklighter
What is Non-Farm Payroll and How to Trade It? 📚 Hey traders, This week, on Friday, we are expecting Non-Farm Payroll Report. In this educational article, I will try to explain to you why that fundamental data is so important and I will share with you the insights how to trade it. Non-Farm Payroll is one of the most important indicators for forex and stock markets in the economic calendar. Being released on the first Friday of each month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), it shows the number of new jobs created by the US economy during the previous month, excluding farm sector, government and not for profit organizations. NFP accounts for 80% of the US gross domestic product work force. The non-farm payroll is used by analysts to determine the current state of the economy and to predict the future activity levels. For that reason, its release usually triggers volatile movements across all Us Dollar related financial instruments. Being crucially important, remember that NFP is not the only figure released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. NFP is the part of the Employment Situation Report that also contains: Unemployment rate, Average hourly earnings, Labor participation rate, Average workweek. The main reason, why newbie traders fail in trading NFP release is the fact that they completely neglect the figures of the Employment Situation Report. Here are some tips how to properly interpret the figures in the report: 1) Non-farm payroll numbers. It reflects the new jobs' creation pace. Higher than predicted rate is usually positive for the US stock market, while the weak rate usually affects that negatively. 2) Unemployment rate. It reflects the number of unemployed people in relation to a total workforce. Low unemployment rate is usually very positive for US Dollar, while higher than expected unemployment quite negatively affects on USD. 3) Average hourly earnings. It reflects the change of the labor cost. The fast increase in the labor cost is usually positive for US Dollar, while the slowing increase is considered to be a bearish indicator for USD. 4) Average weekly hours. It reflects the average amount of paid working hours. The increase in average weekly hours is considered to be a very positive factor for US stock market, while its decrease is considered to be a negative one. Trading NFP report, the one should consider all the figures from the Employment Situation Report. All the numbers should be weighed properly and only then the predictions should be made. Remember that volatility is higher than usual in the hours of news release, for that reason, be careful and never forget to set a stop loss.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
7
💮Review of the Aptos(APT) Project💮Hello! Today, let's review one of the ✴️cryptocurrency projects✴️ which is the talk of the town these days, the Aptos Project. Today's project name is 💮 Aptos Project, shown as APT token💮. As I have said before, I evaluate crypto projects based on various factors .👇 I have already introduced each of these factors with a brief explanation, so today, I will be looking at Aptos (APT) . 🔥Let’s get into it: 🔰🔰🔰🔰🔰🔰 ✅ Project Goals : Aptos is a Layer 1 Proof-of-Stake (PoS) blockchain that employs a novel smart contract programming language called Move, a Rust-based programming language independently developed by Meta (formerly Facebook)’s Diem blockchain engineers. The Aptos blockchain aims to achieve the following: Scalability: To support a large number of transactions per second (TPS) and to minimize transaction💴 costs without sacrificing security. Aptos can theoretically achieve a throughput of over 150,000 TPS. Security: To provide a robust and secure infrastructure that can protect against various attacks, including 51% attacks and other network disruptions. Developer-friendly: To offer a user-friendly😊 interface and a suite of developer tools that make it easy for developers to build and deploy dApps on the Aptos blockchain. Interoperability: To ensure that the Aptos blockchain can interact with other blockchain networks and traditional databases, allowing for greater interoperability and flexibility. By achieving these goals, the Aptos blockchain aims to enable a new generation of decentralized applications to operate more efficiently, securely, and transparently than traditional centralized applications. This is why I have scored Aptos’ project goals 7/10. ✅ Founders : Aptos was founded by Mohammed Sheikh, also known as Mo Sheikh, and Avery Ching. Mo holds a Master's in Business Administration, and his resume includes BlackRock, the Boston Consulting Group, Ethereum builder Consensys, and Meta (formerly Facebook). Avery Ching holds a PhD in Computer Science🖥 and has spent most of his career working as a principal software engineer at Meta, which is one of the highest positions in the company. This is why I have scored the Aptos founders 8/10. ✅ GitHub : Aptos Labs has a public GitHub repository that contains the open-source code for their Aptos blockchain platform. The repository includes various software components, including the core blockchain protocol, smart contract libraries, and various developer tools. The Aptos Labs GitHub repository is a valuable resource for developers interested in building decentralized applications (dApps) on the Aptos blockchain. The repository is regularly updated with new features, bug fixes, and other improvements, and developers are encouraged to contribute their own code and ideas to the project. In addition to the open-source code, the Aptos Labs GitHub🌐 repository also includes documentation and tutorials that guide how to use the platform and build dApps on top of it. This makes it easier for developers to get started with the Aptos blockchain and to take advantage of its unique features and capabilities. The Aptos GitHub repository currently has over 400 contributors with more than 17,000 commits which made our experts score Aptos’ Github 8/10. ✅ Inflation Rate : Aptos launched its Mainnet with an initial total supply of 1 billion tokens in October. With new tokens minted through transaction fees and staking rewards, the total supply of Aptos has reached 1.024 billion during the past 6 months. This means Aptos has had 2.4% inflation over 6 months, and knowing this, I can say that the $APT token inflation rate is at least 4% annually. This inflation rate isn’t awful, but it also isn’t very great looking at Bitcoin’s current 1.8% inflation or Ethereum being deflationary, which is why I have scored $APT token’s inflation rate 6/10. It's important to note that inflation rates can change over time as the underlying blockchain protocol is updated or as market conditions shift, so it's possible that the inflation rate of the $APT token could change in the future. ✅ Community : Aptos team has been actively working to grow their community through social media activity and other methods. The Aptos Twitter account has over 375K followers, their Discord channel has almost 150K😈 members, and they are also active on platforms such as LinkedIn and Medium. Therefore I have scored the Aptos community 7/10. ✅ Whitepaper : The Aptos whitepaper explains the founders’ vision in detail. It talks about the new smart contract programming language called Move, which is based on Rust. Also, the logical data model for Aptos is thoroughly explained in the whitepaper. The technologies used in Aptos, such as parallel transaction processing for achieving higher throughputs, are also explained in the whitepaper. The Aptos Whitepaper being complete and detail-oriented, has made our experts score it 8/10. ✅ Developers : Since the project was founded by people with great experience in tech companies, its developers can only be up to their standards. According to the Aptos website, more than 350 developers are currently working on the Aptos blockchain. The GitHub repository for Aptos also shows more than 400 contributors submitting commits. But you should also know that even though the devs claimed that the Aptos blockchain could process 150,000 TPS, on the day of its Mainnet launch, only 4 transactions were getting confirmed per second, and the blockchain was facing a lack of users. This is why I have scored the Aptos developers 7/10. ✅ Tokenomics : Aptos launched its Mainnet with an initial total supply of 1 billion tokens, of which 510 million were distributed to the community, 190 million to core developers, and the rest to the Aptos Foundation and private investors. Tokens held by private investors and core contributors are subject to a 4-year lockup schedule. The Aptos Foundation holds 410 million tokens, which will be released over the next 10 years, with 125 million available initially to support ecosystem projects, grants, and community growth initiatives. Rewards for token holders who stake their tokens start at 7% annually and decrease to a lower bound of 3.25%. Community sentiment has been critical of the large allocation for developers and also the Aptos team has not been transparent about their tokenomics and average retail investor has to really dig in to find some valuable information, so I have scored the Tokenomics for Aptos 6/10. ✅ Venture Capital Investors : Aptos collected $350 million from VC investors in a funding round. The investors included Tiger Global Management, Andreessen Horowitz, Paxos, BlockTower Capital, Circle Ventures, Multicoin Capital, PayPal Ventures, and more. But what raises concern is that Aptos could collect such capital before they had released a whitepaper or provided any details about their tokenomics. This is why I have scored the VC investors of Aptos 6/10. ✅ Competitor Comparison : What makes Aptos separate from all its competitors such as Solana, is its novel smart contract programming language Move. Solana’s founder has reportedly admitted in an interview that the Solana team is really concerned about a competitor L1 with a new execution layer. This, along with the fact that Move is a very developer-friendly language, could mean many devs leaving the Solana ecosystem in order to build on Aptos. Another difference between Aptos and other L1s that I should mention is that tokens on the Aptos blockchain are apparently controlled by the entity that issues them. This means that any token on the Aptos blockchain can be frozen, burned, or minted at will by whoever created it. This is an intentional design choice as the Aptos founder mentioned in a panel discussion that the Aptos blockchain can comply with regulations. This point creates concerns about censorship and the decentralization of the project, which is why I have scored Aptos compared to its competitors 7/10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 🔔 In conclusion , Aptos obtained an overall score of 7/10 which is decent but there are a few concerns about this project that you should keep in mind if you’re considering investing in it. The biggest concern is the ridiculous disconnect between the supposed quality of the project and its transparency and organization. Aptos has technically been in development since 2017 and has had access to unlimited resources for research and development for years. It raised $350 million without a whitepaper or tokenomics, while Aptos Labs had 350 employees supposedly. So why didn’t Aptos completely hammer out the tokenomics of its $APT token? Aptos still lacks a YouTube channel; no information is available on who runs the validator nodes on the Aptos blockchain. There is also no information on which wallets belong to Aptos Labs and Aptos Foundation. These are all concerns that anyone should consider before inventing.
by pejman_zwin
2
Bitcoin broke the resistance above into April #EasterBullRun !!!I have been following bitcoin for the past 3 months trying to catch the bottom and top of this rally, It's not an easy task so I urge you to take my word as an Easter gift because #BTC just broke the line resistance line above 28K. #EasterBullRun #EasterBullish As usual, We all know it's not possible to catch the top or bottom of any market but 80-90% accuracy is enough to make you win big !! Just buy $BTC and hold till 100k !!
Long
by Kayycoins
Long AI Short HypeFighting innovation is a fool’s errand. Getting entangled in hype is no less. Generative AI is drawing attention. ChatGPT skyrocketed in popularity since launch last November. With its intuitive responses, it has become the fastest-growing app in history reaching one million users in five days and 100 million in two months. In contrast, Google took 12 months and Facebook required four years to get there. The virality highlights the potential disruptive power of generative AI. Disruptive innovation is not new. Railways in 1800s to Blockchain in the recent past provide ample history. As observed before, innovation takes time to mature. Yet the hype cycle races ahead only to plunge in time to normalise. This paper uses iShares Exponential Technologies ETF (XT) as a proxy to cutting edge innovation. XT invests in global firms with exposure to exponential tech, which displaces older tech. It invests across nine themes comprising of firms in both developed and emerging markets that create or use exponential tech. This paper argues for gains to be harvested from sinking hype using a spread trade. A long position in CME Micro E-Mini Nasdaq Futures (MNQ) combined with a short position in XT will deliver a compelling 1.49x reward to risk ratio. HISTORY OF HYPED INNOVATION Gartner hype cycle graphically depicts disruptive innovation journey. First comes the climb to peak hype. Second, fall to trough of disillusion. Third, slope of enlightenment followed by plateau of productivity. Using Google Trends as a proxy for hype cycle, it shows that market mania around AI is not new. AI searches surged in 2011 with the launch of Siri, Cortana, and IBM’s Watson. With natural language processing tech still in infancy, practical applications were limited then. And soon, the frenzy fizzled. Innovation in new machine learning algo such as convolutional neural networks and deep learning led to the launch of ChatGPT. Its potential is clear. Yet the tech is in early stages requiring a lot more work before it can mount serious challenge to existing tools. Tech parity will take considerable time let alone the meaningful monetisation which requires legal and ethical AI use hurdles to be cleared. One of the foremost examples of Gartner’s Hype Cycle is the boom in US Railways between 1840-1860. Hopes of ever-increasing returns attracted large scale investments only to result in eventual disappointment. Illustrations from recent past (Crypto, IoT, and Blockchain) shows similar fate of over-hyped tech. CURRENT HYPE IN XT, C3 AI, AND BEIJING DEEP GLINT A 23% surge in price in iShares Exponential Technologies ETF since mid-October last year is emblematic of Gartner’s hype cycle. This is even more evident in the share price of C3.ai. Founded by legendary entrepreneur Tom Siebel, this company was named C3 Energy when formed. It changed its name to C3 IoT in 2016 and then renamed again to C3.ai in 2019 to ride the waves of hype. US equities cannot claim monopoly over hype. Equities elsewhere get swayed too. Shares in Beijing Deep Glint Technology also rallied 80% spurred by ChatGPT. However, last week, the company announced challenges in offering ChatGPT-linked products causing its shares to tank 10%. ROAD AHEAD FOR GENERATIVE AI Generative AI is here to stay. Infancy for now but the tech will mature. Competition will rise. Winners will emerge. But monetization is another story altogether. Favouring innovation while frowning on hype fuelled by inflated expectations, this case study proposes a spread trade. A long position in CME Micro E-Mini Nasdaq Futures (MNQ) combined with a short position in iShares Exponential Technologies ETF (XT) delivers a compelling 1.49 reward to risk ratio. TRADE SET UP Why a spread trade? In the short term, elevated levels of uncertainty have left experts puzzled on whether we are in a bull market or a bear market rally. Hence, to extract pure alpha (by neutralising beta) of securing gains from diminishing hype, this case study proposes a spread trade. The spread will gain in a bullish market when MNQ rises relative to XT. Similarly, the spread will gain in a bearish market when XT falls more than MNQ. CME’s Micro E-Mini Nasdaq-100 Index Futures expiring in June 2023 (MNQM2023) provides a notional exposure to $2 x Nasdaq-100 index. With MNQM2023 settling at 12,525.50 on February 17th, the futures provide a notional exposure of $25,051. XT settled at $52.58 on the same day. A spread requires notional value of both the legs to be identical. Therefore, this requires short selling 476 units of XT for a short exposure of $25,028. • Entry: 238.218 • Target: 255 • Stop: 227 • Profit at Target: $ 1,760 • Loss at Stop: $ 1,180 • Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.49x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description. REFERENCES www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
CME_MINI:MNQM2023Long
by mintdotfinance
18
seize the opportunity of trading in the gold volatility range!After yesterday's rally and closing positive, gold has so far emerged from a bottoming and rebounding market today, reaching a minimum of 1958.75. It is currently trading near the 1966 position. Judging from today's short cycle, gold prices have not achieved a breakthrough and have been under pressure. In the falling market, gold did not fall to the 1930 area again, and the 4-hour range fluctuation is still there.It is expected that gold will fluctuate in a large area from 2000 to 1950, which is a high probability. From the fundamental point of view, although the banking crisis has been alleviated, the economic recession and the geopolitical risk-averse market are still there, so it is destined that gold will continue to be in a high and volatile market. Short-term trading reference: 1.Sell gold near the 1973-1974 position, stop loss level 1979, take profit level 1960-1955 2.Buy gold near the 1952 position, the stop loss level is 1949, and the take profit level is near 1966 In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Short-term-king