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NMIH Bullish outlook.Fundamentels - Very strong earnings grow expectations. Management reports it excellent ( and that word is not much used in my reports) - Good price earnings spiral. - Stock should have at least been priced need the 44-45 range in my opinion. But if you look further ahead with a p/e of 15-20 the stock should be priced between 60 and 80 which is easy to estimate with these strong fundamentals. Technical - I saw a great R/R setup with stops need the bottom of this last block-range. - I think this trade volume (VWAP) drives up this price on a very fair pace. I think it with the last volume dips it's clear we heading to a time with a lag of liquidity. This could result in some volatility in the range between 38-40 with bullish pressure. Strategic - The company is a Tech-leaning Insurance company for mortgages, an interest that will grow when economic tension rises. What a great company. Making money from the insurance of the most bubbly asset in the world. Large demand I would say, probably this company will blow up in times of a housing crisis because these models will be heavily biased I guess. But if the risk department would buy CDS'S it could be a very fair business model --- if they will be covered this time ---- how could you even cover that CDS"S, please tell me in the comments.
NASDAQ:NMIHLong
by leohanhart1996
The Internet Computer: A Revolutionary Blockchain PlatformProblem Defined in the White Paper: The Internet Computer (IC) is a blockchain platform designed to overcome the limitations of traditional blockchain platforms, such as high transaction and storage costs, slow computational speed, and the inability to serve frontends to users. The IC aims to provide a decentralized platform for executing smart contracts, enabling the creation of fully decentralized applications that are hosted end-to-end on blockchain. Solution The IC is a radical new design of blockchain that unleashes the full potential of smart contracts. It consists of a set of cryptographic protocols that connect independently operated nodes into a collection of blockchains, which host and execute "canisters," the IC's form of smart contracts. Canisters can store data, perform general computations on that data, and provide a complete technology stack, serving web pages directly to end users. Market Size & Opportunity The IC has the potential to revolutionize the way we build and interact with decentralized applications. With its ability to host and execute smart contracts, the IC can enable a wide range of use cases, from decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) to decentralized social media and gaming platforms. The IC's market size and opportunity are vast, with the potential to disrupt traditional industries and create new ones. Consensus Mechanism The IC uses a new consensus protocol that is designed to be extremely simple and robust. The protocol is based on a blockchain, with each non-genesis block containing a payload of inputs and a hash of the block's parent in the tree. The protocol proceeds in rounds, with one or more blocks of height h being added to the tree in each round. The IC consensus protocol guarantees safety under a weak communication assumption and guarantees liveness under a partial synchrony assumption. Tokenomics The IC has a native token called ICP, which is used for staking in the Network Nervous System (NNS), conversion to cycles, payment to node providers, and other functions. ICP tokens are also used for governance, with users who have ICP tokens staked in the NNS receiving newly minted ICP tokens as a voting reward. Smart Contracts The IC provides a run-time environment for executing WebAssembly (Wasm) programs in canisters, which are roughly the same as processes. Canister programs are encoded in Wasm, and the IC provides a messaging interface definition language and wire format called Candid for typed, high-level, and cross-language interoperability. Scalability The IC is designed to be highly scalable, with the ability to process unbounded volumes of smart contract data and computation natively. The IC can grow in capacity by adding more nodes to the network, making it an ideal platform for large-scale decentralized applications. Real World Value The IC has real-world value as a decentralized platform for executing smart contracts. Its ability to host and execute canisters enables a wide range of use cases, from DeFi and NFTs to decentralized social media and gaming platforms. The IC's market size and opportunity are vast, with the potential to disrupt traditional industries and create new ones. Security Measures The IC has several security measures in place, including: Chain-key cryptography: The IC uses a unique and powerful collection of technologies called chain-key cryptography, which includes threshold signatures, digital signatures, and a distributed key generation (DKG) protocol. Threshold signatures: The IC uses threshold signatures to ensure that a subset of replicas can generate a signature on a message, even if some replicas are faulty. Distributed key generation (DKG) protocol: The IC uses a DKG protocol to securely distribute shares of the secret signing key to replicas. Consensus protocol: The IC consensus protocol is designed to be extremely simple and robust, with a weak communication assumption and a partial synchrony assumption. Code Audits The IC has undergone several code audits, including a security audit by a third-party firm. The audit found several vulnerabilities in the IC's code, which were subsequently fixed. Development Roadmap The IC is still in development, with several features and upgrades planned for the near future. Some of the upcoming features include: Compute Platform: The IC will become a decentralized compute platform, allowing anyone to deploy canister smart contracts on the Internet and run them in a decentralized manner. Blockchain Singularity: The IC will achieve a state of "Blockchain Singularity," where all computations of the world can run on the IC. Reduced End-to-end Latency: The IC will reduce end-to-end latency, making it faster and more responsive. Increased Storage Capacity and Throughput: The IC will increase storage capacity and throughput, making it more scalable and efficient. Decentralized AI: The IC will enable decentralized AI, allowing users to trust AI models running on the IC with no visibility into how data is used and how AI models produce responses. Chain Fusion: The IC will enable Chain Fusion, allowing blockchains like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana to be "fused" together with the IC to create a seamless single-chain end-user experience for multi-chain dapps. Chain Fusion Supports Bitcoin Ordinals and Runes: The IC will support Bitcoin ordinals and runes, enabling users to interact with Bitcoin smart contracts on the IC. Chain Fusion Supports Solana: The IC will support Solana, enabling users to interact with Solana smart contracts on the IC. Chain Fusion Supports EVM Chains: The IC will support EVM chains, enabling users to interact with EVM-based smart contracts on the IC. Privacy: The IC will enable privacy-preserving dapps, allowing users to store and share encrypted data on-chain. Platform Decentralization: The IC will become fully decentralized, eliminating central points of control and ensuring that users interact with the IC without relying on a single party. Identity: The IC will enable a robust authentication solution based on passkeys, with easy onboarding and support for identity attributes while protecting users' privacy. Digital Assets: The IC will enable DeFi protocols, real-world asset tokenization, and other digital asset solutions, making it an attractive platform to build multi-chain custody solutions and wallets. Governance & Tokenomics: The IC will have two kinds of built-in governance systems, the NNS and the SNS framework, which will facilitate decentralized decision making and incentivize voting participation. Developer Experience: The IC will have a rich set of libraries, testing frameworks, and developer tools, making it easier for developers to build and deploy canisters on the IC. Some of the projects on ICP ecosystem: DeFi ICPSwap: An AMM DEX built completely on-chain that is the premier hub for full-stack financial and DAO services on ICP. Funded: A web3 crowdfunding platform that allows users to participate in crowdfunding with ICP, BTC, and ETH without worrying about losing money on gas fees. Sonic DEX: A multichain decentralized exchange built on the Internet Computer Protocol (ICP) that offers a wide range of DeFi services. Helix Markets: A decentralized exchange that aims to bring true ownership and full transparency to crypto trading. ICDex: An orderbook-based DEX that runs 100% on-chain, made possible by advanced ICP smart contracts. Finny: A lending and borrowing platform that allows users to lend and borrow against their crypto without bridging it across chains. Catalyze: A social dapp that serves as a community organizing tool where users can build groups, interact with other members, create/run events, and transact using their Web3 identity and wallet. DecideAI: An ecosystem that consists of three products, designed to meet the needs of the high-end, specialized LLM market. Plural Finance: A platform that enables coffee farmers to submit data reports on their yields and processes for crop insurance purposes. ICPEx: A decentralized exchange built entirely on the chain based on the ICP. NFT NFID: A digital identity that keeps personal information private and digital assets secure. Bioniq: The fastest Ordinals marketplace where users can buy, sell, and trade with no gas fees, near-instant finality, and decentralized secure token bridging. Yuku: A platform that allows users to unlock limitless potential by creating, sharing, and monetizing NFTs, metaverse experiences, and gamefi content. Entrepot: A decentralized NFT marketplace developed by ToniqLabs, providing users with tools and on-chain services to design, deploy, and manage NFTs and traditional tokens. Plethora: A Web3 platformer that rewards users with fun gameplay and NFTs, empowering NFT projects to launch their collections with immersive experiences customized for users. Cosmicrafts: A virtual world where users can engage in thrilling interstellar battles, strategize with allies, and conquer the cosmos. NFT Studio: A platform that allows users to create 3D NFTs, which are living 3D code that can run on the ICP blockchain. Hobbi: A platform that allows users to create a profile and record all the multimedia content they consume, whether it's a movie, a book, or even a video game. ICP NFT Creater: A Shopify app designed to streamline the process of creating and launching NFT collections, product certificates, and more on ICP. Bitomni: A BTCFi-driven omnichain asset management protocol with built-in BTCFi DApps across multiple blockchains. SocialFi Hot or Not: A decentralized short-form video-based social media platform that integrates prediction markets for content. TAGGR: A fully on-chain and fully autonomous SocialFi network that allows users to publish content on a public compute infrastructure. OpenChat: A fully decentralized real-time messaging service that is indistinguishable from Web2 chat apps while living 100% on the blockchain. DSCVR: An end-to-end decentralized Web3 social media platform that allows communities to form into groups called Portals. Seers: A decentralized Twitter that includes prediction markets, allowing users to engage in social media features and prediction markets. Nuance: A Web3.0 blogging platform that is hosted on-chain end-to-end on the Internet Computer. Cosmicrafts: A virtual world where users can engage in thrilling interstellar battles, strategize with allies, and conquer the cosmos. Kontribute: A web3 creators platform that brings story writing and digital art collectibles together. Dstar: A marketplace for buying and selling Internet Identity (II) trading accounts. Metaforo ICP deployment: A Web3 forum that prioritizes decentralization, community ownership, and token-gated governance. Games Dragginz: A virtual pets game from the creators of Neopets, where users can hatch and raise Dragginz to accompany them on their adventures. AutoRoyale: A battle royale 2D shooter on ICP, where users can grab gear, outplay the competition, and stay alive as the battleground shrinks. Cubetopia: A Web3 building game where players can create anything on unique blocky islands, each island being a mutable NFT stored on the Internet Computer blockchain. Plethora: A Web3 platformer that rewards users with fun gameplay and NFTs, empowering NFT projects to launch their collections with immersive experiences customized for users. Cosmicrafts: A virtual world where users can engage in thrilling interstellar battles, strategize with allies, and conquer the cosmos. Jumpy Motoko: A Unity play-to-earn game on Internet Computer, where users can deploy their own Unity play-to-earn game too. Windows IC: A React Dapp built on the Internet Computer, mimicking what a Chromebook can do, but for a mimic of the Windows Operating System. Reversi: A completely decentralized multiplayer game that allows users to play against a friend or foe in real-time, from any browser, anywhere in the world. Goblin Studio: A platform that allows users to create, translate, and interact with goblins in a virtual world. CARMANIA: A game that brings digital community into a unified virtual space, where users can build, customize, and compete with their dream cars. Tools/Infrastructure ICPSwap: An AMM DEX built completely on-chain that is the premier hub for full-stack financial and DAO services on ICP. ICDex: An orderbook-based DEX that runs 100% on-chain, made possible by advanced ICP smart contracts. ICLightHouse: A framework for developing true web3 DeFi infrastructure on the Internet Computer. Bitfinity EVM: An EVM compatibility layer for the IC, allowing users to deploy their Solidity smart contracts to the Internet Computer. NNS Dapp: A front-end dapp that allows users to interact with the Internet Computer's Network Nervous System with a user-friendly UI. Plug Wallet: A wallet that allows users to store, send, swap, deposit, and log into IC apps in a click. Stoic Wallet: A digital wallet that authenticates users through a variety of methods, including Internet Identity. Overall, the Internet Computer is a revolutionary blockchain platform that has the potential to disrupt traditional industries and create new ones. Its ability to host and execute smart contracts, combined with its scalability and security measures, make it an ideal platform for large-scale decentralized applications.
by stocktechbot
WAB: balanced risk with long term upside due to California lawBalance Sheet Analysis Current Assets: $4,855,000,000 Non-Current Assets: $14,133,000,000 Intangible Assets: $11,985,000,000 Current Liabilities: $4,056,000,000 Long-Term Debt: $4,408,000,000 Asset to Liability Ratio A current ratio of 1.20 indicates that WAB has more current assets than current liabilities, which suggests the company is not at immediate risk of liquidity issues. However, the ratio is relatively close to 1, indicating that while the company can cover its short-term obligations, it doesn't have a substantial buffer. Income Statement Analysis Key Figures: Total Revenue: $10,217,000,000 Operating Income: $1,521,000,000 Net Income: $918,000,000 Operating Margin: 14.89% The operating margin of 14.89% is just below the 15% threshold, suggesting WAB is operating efficiently but has room for improvement. A margin close to 15% reflects good management of operating expenses relative to revenue. Statement of Cash Flow Analysis Free Cash Flow (FCF): Trailing Twelve Months (TTM): $1,487,000,000 2023: $1,015,000,000 2022: $889,000,000 2021: $943,000,000 2020: $648,000,000 WAB's free cash flow has shown a consistent increase year-over-year, which is a positive sign for the company’s financial health. Increasing free cash flow indicates that the company is generating more cash from its operations, which can be used for expansion, debt reduction, or dividends. Qualitative Analysis Brand Recognition: WAB has strong brand recognition in the rail industry, particularly in providing advanced technologies for freight and transit rail. This recognition bolsters its competitive position. News: Recent regulations in California targeting diesel-powered trains present both challenges and opportunities for WAB. The state’s push for zero-emissions technology aligns with WAB's innovation in green technologies. However, the industry faces concerns about the feasibility and costs of transitioning to zero-emission locomotives. Emerging Industries: WAB is positioned to benefit from the growth of industries focusing on sustainability and green energy. As governments and companies increasingly prioritize environmental impact, WAB's investments in green technology could drive long-term growth. Conclusion WAB appears to be a relatively stable stock with a solid balance sheet, consistent free cash flow growth, and a strong operating margin, though slightly below the desired 15%. The company’s strategic focus on innovation, especially in response to regulatory changes, could position it well for future growth. However, the relatively modest current ratio suggests that the company should continue monitoring its liquidity closely. Overall, WAB presents a balanced risk profile with potential upside in emerging green industries.
NYSE:WABLong
by rogomezpalacio
IZMO Limited: A Lucrative Investment Opportunity IZMO Limited, a leading software products company, has been making waves in the automotive industry with its innovative solutions. The company's recent financial performance and future outlook make it an attractive investment opportunity for long-term investors. Financial Performance: IZMO Limited's Q4 FY '24 results show a 15.18% YoY revenue growth, with EBITDA margin standing at 23.96%. The company's guidance for the current financial year is a 30% to 40% top-line growth, driven by new client additions and increased product sales. FrogData, the company's AI and Data Intelligence platform, is a significant contributor to revenue growth and margin improvement. Future Outlook: IZMO Limited is targeting a 500 crore turnover in the next 3-4 years, driven by expansion into new geographies and product offerings. The company is optimistic about market expansion and revenue growth potential, with a focus on enhancing sales and technical capabilities to drive future growth. Technical Analysis: The OBV (On Balance Volume) indicator, which measures the volume of buying and selling, is showing a strong bullish trend. The OBV is above the 50-day moving average, indicating a strong buying interest. This indicates that the volume is increasing, and investors are becoming more positive towards the company. Ratios and Indicators: IZMO Limited's debt-to-equity ratio is 0.13, indicating a low level of debt. The company's current ratio is 2.13, indicating a strong ability to meet short-term obligations. The return on equity (ROE) is 9%, indicating a moderate level of profitability. Conclusion: IZMO Limited presents a lucrative investment opportunity for long-term investors. The company's financial performance, future outlook, and technical analysis all indicate a strong potential for growth. With a focus on expansion into new geographies and product offerings, IZMO Limited is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for automotive solutions. Risk: As with any investment, there are risks associated with investing in IZMO Limited. The company's financial performance may be impacted by various factors, including changes in market conditions, competition, and regulatory requirements. Investors should carefully consider these risks before making an investment decision. Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Investors should consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
NSE:IZMOLong
by stocktechbot
ALTCOINS that may Actually HAVE A FUTURE Beyond 2024I remember the good 'ol days, when the amount of options you had was limited to one hand. First there was Bitcoin. Then came ETH, LTC, XRP and BCH (Bitcoin Cash). And a few other's later came like Bitcoin Gold and CRV. But oh man, were those the days. Crypto felt oddly "safer" back then, despite mt gox and pyramid schemes running rampant. Because today - the enemy is actually in the camp... New alts are being released every hour (probably more) and it's just the one airdrop to the next rug. Lot's of progress has been made in this space which is blockchain, but we're still not really seeing the original promise of Bitcoin being fulfilled (fast and affordable cross border payments, ) amongst others. Today, it has become close to impossible to separate the crop from the cream in terms of coin accumulation. If you bought BTC two years ago, or ETH, or LTC - you'd currently be in profit. However, some alts don't even exist for a month after release date never the less a year or more. So let's talk about which altcoins I believe have a future FOR SURE. Remember that this is a highly debatable point; but I am going to point out the few that I believe will survive (at least past year and possibly beyond). 👉 1) Bitcoin COINBASE:BTCUSD Bitcoin is not an altcoin, it is the original crypto. The KING. The first commandment and promise of a fair, open and transparent future on the blockchain. BTC's price may be overvalued occasionally, but it will always have the benefit of being first. And with so many institutional investors, I think it's a safe play for the foreseeable future. 👉 2) Ethereum COINBASE:ETHUSD King of the alts, first of it's kind. Ethereum is the world's first smart contract platforms which remains the most popular choice among developers even today. Following Bitcoin's decentralized concept, Ethereum has become a leader in smart contract platforms and dApps. Eth is here to stay. 👉 3) Solana BINANCE:SOLUSDT Competitor now to Ethereum, SOL has previously surpassed ETH (not in price). With over 95 million transactions daily, Solana has become the fastest blockchain and recently surpassed Ethereum in Total Economic Value. Many devs prefer Solana, and I believe it will stick around for the foreseeable future. 👉 4) Dogecoin CRYPTOCAP:DOGE I hate how dependent Doge is on Elon Musk. But, for some reason, Mr Musk has a fascination with Doge and has promised many times to include it as a payment option on X (formerly Twitter). Even though it seems like a pie in the sky, something like that would significantly increase the value of Doge. I don't see it as a "forever" coin, but definitely on the list. I think a key point to note here, is that back then, they (the founders) were doing something revolutionary. They were and are the titans of the industry. Today, anyone with GPT can create a functioning alt that "serves a purpose" or has "fundamental use case" in some way. It's true that AI is revolutionary, and I am very bullish on the concept of AI and the promise of automation for human kind. But this far, it hasn't been profitable, yet . OpenAI makes losses and cryptoai is just leveraging off the larger AI, or the concept thereof... Sure, there are privately trained models, but at the current moment it takes a tremendous amount of resources (time, money, physical space) to do DL or Machine Learning, which if OpenAI cant make profitable... then neither can the cryptoai created by john, steve and bob. 10 Other ALTS that will probably make it past this year: 1) Shiba Inu (because people love it) BINANCE:SHIBUSDT 2) XRP (because many can't let go) BINANCE:XRPUSDT 3) Cardano (because it has a cult following) BINANCE:ADAUSDT 4) BNB (Binance supporters maybe?) CRYPTOCAP:BNB 5) Chainlink (because oddly enough it's survived for this long) BINANCE:LINKUSDT 6) Kaspa (potentially a revolutionary alt) MEXC:KASUSDT 7) Render (potentially an ai winner) BINANCEUS:RNDRUSDT 8) Monero (still the best privacy coin) KRAKEN:XMRUSD 9) Sei (potentially a revolutionary alt) BINANCE:SEIUSDT 10) Aave (still the best for borrowing and lending) COINBASE:AAVEUSD Don't miss the message here - you can still TRADE altcoins. There are good trading opportunities and setups even for the worst alts. I know this because we trade them daily. But this post is not about trading opportunities - it's about the future, potentially the far future. Who will likely survive and why. Alts that may be worth accumulating an that probably won't rug in a month's time. I hope you can take it for what it is intended to be! ________________________________
CRYPTOCAP:ETHLong
by CryptoCheck-
8
Meta chart analysis Meta Platforms soared nearly 22% in late day trading on Thursday, nearing the $500B market cap level, after the Zuckerberg-led company's fourth quarter results and guidance were better than feared. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 ended higher on Thursday and touched roughly five-month highs as a more dovish than expected message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell boosted equities and Meta Platforms shares soared on rigorous cost controls. Rosenblatt Securities analyst Barton Crockett upgraded Meta to buy from neutral and raised his price target to $220 a share from $104, stating the company now has the "durability" to receive a premium earnings multiple. "With Meta reaching 3.74B people monthly, it has durability that over time could confer a premium multiple," Crockett wrote in a note to clients. To emphasize Meta's worldwide presence, Crockett added that the company's monthly reach is equal to 47% of the global population. Crockett said that another thing in Meta's favor is that company is "unlevered, and following the maturing company playbook to a normal mix of debt and equity could open up meaningfully higher share repurchase." In conjunction with its quarterly results and guidance, Meta announced a new $40B share buyback program. Bank of America analyst Justin Post boosted his rating on Meta to buy from neutral and raise his stock price target to $220 a share from $160, while praising the more efficient mindset from company management. J.P. Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth reiterated his overweight rating on Meta (META) and raised his price target to $225 a share, noting that the company is "building critical muscle" to operate as a disciplined company. Analysts were expecting Meta (META) to earn $2.23 per share on $31.69B in revenue. Zuck said the progress Meta is making on its artificial intelligence discovery engine and Reels is being seen in the strong engagement in its apps. we will have a little correction (zuck back) then ready for higher targets like 190, 195, 197 and 200$
NASDAQ:METALong
by moonypto
25
ADVM - Biotech Long ShotBiotechs are still beaten up, especially the gene therapy disrupter stocks, so continuing to buy a little bit here and a little bit here of some of these stocks. These are lottery stocks, they have few if any marketable products, but the idea is if they do come out with a block buster, well winner winner chicken dinner!!! Adverum is into ocular gene therapy with several therapies in the pipeline with one to be late-stage clinical study. Reason for the buy? Well a nice insider buy trade of $2.5 million in July which can often be a sign that something is in the making, or at least they have a lot of faith in the company moving forward. Probably buy 100 shares here, that is a small under $700 position so if it goes to zero I am not hurting, but if it becomes a 10 or better bagger that is a nice hit. I mean various investors had the company above $200 for a while, so it is not unreasonable to get that type of move. However the chances of that are low which is why we keep our risk low. Anyways, good luck and I will touch base soon.
NASDAQ:ADVMLong
by goldbug1
Evolution of JPY:How BOJ Policies & Global Events Influence YENUSD/JPY Dynamics: A Historical and Policy-Driven Analysis of the Bank of Japan's Impact Historical Context and Market Reactions The COVID-19 pandemic led to some of the most extreme market reactions in recent history. During this period, global bond yields spiked in a highly risk-off environment, defying expectations that they would fall as investors sought safe havens. This prompted the Federal Reserve to implement unlimited Quantitative Easing (QE), including daily purchases of $300 billion in bonds. The market chaos highlighted the extent of leverage in supposedly liquid trades. Post-COVID , zero interest rates spurred significant equity market gains until inflation concerns and subsequent rate hikes caused a market correction. It was expected that higher borrowing rates would reduce excessive leverage, but the heavily crowded yen carry trade suggested otherwise. Yen borrowing was extensive and leveraged, flowing into the Japanese market due to minimal currency risk. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) System The Bank of Japan (BOJ), established in 1882, serves as the central bank of Japan. Its primary roles include issuing currency, implementing monetary policy, and maintaining financial stability. The BOJ’s policies and actions significantly impact the yen’s value and the broader Japanese economy. Key Functions of the BOJ: 1. Monetary Policy: The BOJ's primary tool for influencing the economy is its monetary policy. This includes setting interest rates and engaging in open market operations to control the money supply. The BOJ's main policy goals are to achieve price stability and economic growth. 2. Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE): Introduced in 2013 under Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, QQE aimed to combat deflation and stimulate the economy by purchasing government bonds and other assets, thus increasing the monetary base. 3. Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP): Implemented in 2016, the BOJ introduced a negative interest rate on excess reserves held by financial institutions at the bank. This policy aimed to encourage lending and investment by making it costly for banks to hold excess reserves. 4. Yield Curve Control (YCC): In 2016, the BOJ introduced YCC, targeting a zero percent yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds to control the shape of the yield curve and maintain low-interest rates across different maturities. Recent Economic Developments Japanese Yen Strength: - Recently, the yen extended its rally to above 146.50 against the US dollar, its strongest level since March. This was driven by diverging monetary policies between the US Federal Reserve and the BOJ. - Weak US jobs data have increased expectations for further Fed rate cuts, contributing to a weaker dollar. BOJ Rate Hike: - The BOJ raised its interest rate to a 16-year high of 0.25% and signaled the possibility of future increases if economic conditions warrant. This move surprised many economists. Government Intervention: - In July, Japanese authorities spent 5.53 trillion yen to support the currency through intervention. The government expressed concerns that a weaker yen could erode household purchasing power by pushing inflation higher than wage growth. Impact on Financial Markets Japanese Market: - The yen’s strength and BOJ’s policy adjustments have significantly influenced Japanese financial markets. The Nikkei 225 index fell by about 6%, closing the week at 35,909.70. This was one of the worst performances since March 2020 when the index fell below 36,000. Bond yields also dropped, with the benchmark 10-year yield falling below 1%, its lowest level in two months. Global Markets: - Global financial markets, including US markets, have been affected by recession fears and weak economic indicators. The Nasdaq Composite has slid into correction territory, reflecting broader market concerns. Conclusion The interplay between BOJ policies and global economic conditions continues to shape the USD/JPY dynamics. The BOJ’s commitment to maintaining low interest rates and engaging in extensive bond purchases influences the yen's value and the broader Japanese economy. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for investors and traders navigating the complex landscape of forex markets. USD/JPY Historical Movements and Influential Events on JPY Historical Movements of the JPY The Japanese yen (JPY) has experienced significant fluctuations influenced by various historical and economic events. Here are some notable periods and their impacts: 1. Introduction and Early Years (1871 - 1882): - The yen was introduced in 1871 as a modern currency, replacing the diverse local currencies issued by feudal regions. - In 1882, the establishment of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) centralized control over the currency, standardizing and stabilizing the yen. 2. Post-WWII Era (1945 - 1971): - After WWII, the yen was pegged to the US dollar at 360 yen per USD under the Bretton Woods system. This fixed rate helped stabilize the Japanese economy during its post-war recovery. - The peg was abandoned in 1971, and the yen became a free-floating currency. This shift led to significant volatility, with the yen reaching a high of 271 per USD in 1973. 3. 1980s Economic Boom and 1990s Asset Bubble Collapse: - During the 1980s, Japan's economy boomed, and the yen appreciated significantly. - The collapse of the asset bubble in the early 1990s led to a prolonged period of economic stagnation and deflation, with the BOJ adopting low interest rates to stimulate growth. 4. 2008 Financial Crisis: - The global financial crisis in 2008 saw the yen strengthen as investors sought safe-haven assets. The BOJ intervened multiple times to prevent excessive appreciation. 5. COVID-19 Pandemic: - The pandemic caused economic disruptions globally, leading to significant yen volatility. Safe-haven inflows drove the yen's value up, while the BOJ's QE programs aimed to mitigate economic downturns. Key Events Influencing Strong Movements in JPY 1. 1985 Plaza Accord: - An agreement between the G5 nations to depreciate the US dollar relative to the yen and other currencies. This led to a rapid appreciation of the yen, causing significant adjustments in Japan’s economy. 2. 1997 Asian Financial Crisis: - The crisis led to a flight to safety, with the yen initially strengthening before the BOJ intervened to stabilize the currency. 3. 2008 Global Financial Crisis: - The yen appreciated as global investors sought safe-haven assets. The BOJ intervened to prevent excessive yen strength, which could hurt Japan's export-driven economy. 4. 2011 Earthquake and Tsunami: - The natural disaster led to a sharp appreciation of the yen, prompting the BOJ and the Japanese government to intervene in the forex market to stabilize the currency. 5. COVID-19 Pandemic: - Safe-haven demand for the yen increased during the pandemic, but BOJ’s monetary policies, including extensive bond-buying and low interest rates, aimed to support the economy and stabilize the currency. Conclusion The Japanese yen has a rich history of significant fluctuations driven by both domestic policies and global events. The BOJ’s role in stabilizing the yen through various monetary policy tools has been crucial, especially during periods of economic uncertainty. Understanding these historical movements and influential events is key for anyone looking to grasp the dynamics of the JPY in the forex market.
Education
by SroshMayi
PRICE PREDICTION reads $65K New Strategy with price predictions. The next target is $65,025. The wave has broken and at the end of each break, there is a price prediction which has been predicted accordingly. Let's work with FWB:65K as we move up to $85k. A short position from $48,672 to $50,533 then we have a long position by using ATR PIPS at 9740.1 then reads to shoot up to $85K as TARGET. The previous long position has a stop at $48,554 with a target of $85,083 which was created back on June 24th, 2024. I will combine the 1D TF BULL signal with the 2D TF BULL signal which is still in the process of completion.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by The_ForexX_Mindset
15
Is MSFT Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?MSFT is one of the few tech stocks which trades close to all-time highs, seemingly oblivious to the brutal valuation reset that swept through the sector In the most recent quarter, MSFT delivered strong results when factoring in the tough macro environment. MSFT grew revenues by 7% (10% constant currency) and earnings per share by 10% (14% constant currency) - two achievements not necessarily typically seen under difficult economic circumstances. MSFT generated $8.64 billion of that operating income from its productivity and business processes segment, which houses its Office 365 product suite among others. As to be expected, LinkedIn revenue growth came in light at just 8%, a reflection of lower hiring demand. MSFT generated another $9.4 billion in operating income from its intelligent cloud segment. Azure grew at a 27% clip, far surpassing the 16% growth seen at competitor Amazon Web Services Investors have been cautious on the ever-valuable cloud business ever since the cloud titans all revealed cloud optimization efforts undertaken by its customers. On the conference call, management implied that they may see easing headwinds as they pass the anniversary of those optimization efforts, stating that “at some point, workloads just can't be optimized much further.” It is possible that MSFT’s partnership with ChatGPT’s creator OpenAI has something to do with that, as management noted that while they do not consolidate any operating losses due to them holding a minority equity interest, they do indeed recognize revenues generated from OpenAI using their cloud services. The other cloud titans did not offer the same bullish commentary surrounding the end of cloud optimization. MSFT continued to see headwinds from its more personal computing segment, which saw revenues decline by 9% though still managed to generate $4.24 billion in operating income. At some point the comps should become easier here, but that may still be a couple of quarters away. MSFT ended the quarter with $104.5 billion in cash versus $48.2 billion in debt. I note that the company also has another $9.4 billion in equity investments (the announced $10 billion investment in OpenAI is set to take place in parts throughout the year). The company continues to pay a growing dividend and conducted $5.5 billion in share repurchases in the quarter. It is not too often that one can get long term innovation and have the majority of free cash flow returned to shareholders as well. Looking ahead, management has noted that overall growth may struggle due to the prior year’s quarter being a tough comp, with that being their “largest commercial bookings quarter ever with a material volume of large multiyear commitments.” Management did, however, guide for up to 27% in Azure growth, which seems to imply that the bottom for that segment may be very near if not already passed. Investors may be worried about how ongoing tech layoffs may impact Office 365 growth, but management appeared unfazed by this risk, citing that they continue to see strong demand for their product suites. MSFT continues to show why it is a favorite tech stock in growth allocations, as it has shown resilient growth in the face of tough macro. The strong fundamentals have helped the stock sustain a premium valuation multiple, as the stock recently traded hands at just under 35x earnings. Valuation remains the most obvious risk with that stock trading something between 50% and 100% higher than GOOGL depending on how many adjustments applied to the latter. With the stock trading so richly on present earnings, the stock could go nowhere for 7-10 years and still be trading at around 15x earnings at that time. Unless MSFT manages to sustain double-digit earnings longer than consensus, the stock will likely need to sustain a rich multiple in order to beat the market index. I note that this risk does not appear as large at the aforementioned mega-cap peers due to not just lower valuations but also due to MSFT appearing to already be operationally efficient with operating margins in excess of 40%. Another risk is that of potential disruption to its enterprise tech business. Wall Street appears to view the stock as being the strongest operator in any of its competing markets, but I do not share such views. In particular, I view competition from the likes of CrowdStrike (CRWD),and GOOGL’s productivity suite as being underestimated risks. It is possible that MSFT is about to face long- term disruption just as its growth story is decelerating - which would have a catastrophic impact on multiples. Due to the near term upside from OpenAI, MSFT hit ATH and now its in pullback mode, I took huge profit and waiting for more confirmation
NASDAQ:MSFT
by moonypto
2
Ubisoft Entertainment SA / UBIUbisoft Entertainment aka ubi "bug" is a french video game publisher headquartered in Saint-Mandé with development studios across the world. Its video game franchises include Assassin's Creed, Far Cry, For Honor, Just Dance, Prince of Persia, Rabbids, Rayman, Tom Clancy's, and Watch Dogs. Ubisoft was one early investors in web3 technologies and projects too last year was a terrible year for ubi because not only they didn't succeed with their franchise like farcry 6 but also they entered the bear market while they were working on their bigger projects like AC. “We are clearly disappointed by our recent performance,” said Ubisoft Chief Executive Yves Guillemot. “We are facing contrasted market dynamics as the industry continues to shift towards mega-brands and everlasting live games, in the context of worsening economic conditions affecting consumer spending.” 2023 is a big year for ubi and they are going to publish some of their best games like Assassin's Creed Mirage, Tom Clancy’s The Division Heartland and skull and bones ubi stock now in Accumulation phase and its next targets are 21, 23 and 25
LSIN:0NVLLong
by moonypto
1
ONDO up 600% since Feb, Currently Outperforming BTC Based on the solid growth trend of ONDO, along with the RWA narrative and BlackRock backing, I believe this token will continue to grow to new all time highs. My strategy: -Buy at $1.33 -Sell 30% when it reaches previous ATH of $1.48 (market cap SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:2B ). -Sell 30% when price reaches $1.88 (market cap $2.5B). -Sell 30% when price reaches $2.30 (market cap SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:3B ). -Set Stop Loss at $1.17 which is the 100-day EMA.
COINBASE:ONDOUSDLong
by joyfuldad
BROS LongDutch Brothers is warranting some attention here, significantly discounted from its IPO price, BROS has continued to open over 100 new stores annually, reaching into new territories and rolling out features that other coffee stands and brands are not utilizing. People seem to really love their brand, the quality and the taste of their drinks, and the service they get at the window. Healthy profit margins and growth Y/Y. Management has an end-goal of 4,000 locations, liking what I see.
NYSE:BROSLong
by Acitsilos
1
Implementing Carry Trade Strategies in Forex PortfoliosIn the world of forex trading, carry trade strategies have long been a popular method for capitalizing on interest rate differentials between countries. By borrowing in a currency with a low interest rate and investing in a currency with a higher rate, traders can potentially profit from both the interest rate differential and the currency appreciation. However, successful implementation of carry trade strategies requires a thorough understanding of interest rate dynamics, currency pair selection, and risk management. 1️⃣ Understanding the Basics of Carry Trade Strategies Carry trades involve borrowing in a low-yield currency and investing in a high-yield currency. The primary goal is to capture the interest rate differential between the two currencies. For example, if the Japanese yen (JPY) has a low-interest rate and the Australian dollar (AUD) has a higher interest rate, you might borrow yen to purchase Australian dollars, thereby earning the interest rate differential. Historically, this strategy has been profitable, but it comes with risks, particularly from currency fluctuations. 2️⃣ Evaluating Interest Rate Differentials The cornerstone of a carry trade strategy is the interest rate differential between two currencies. This differential represents the potential profit margin for the trade. You must stay informed about central bank policies, economic indicators, and geopolitical events that influence interest rates. For instance, in the mid-2000s, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) and the Australian dollar (AUD) were popular carry trade currencies due to their high-interest rates compared to the Japanese yen (JPY) and the Swiss franc (CHF). 3️⃣ Selecting the Right Currency Pairs Choosing the appropriate currency pairs is crucial for a successful carry trade strategy. You should look for pairs with a significant interest rate differential and relatively low volatility. Historical data and current economic conditions can help identify suitable pairs. For example, the AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY pairs have been popular choices due to their favorable interest rate differentials. Additionally, you should consider factors such as liquidity and transaction costs. 4️⃣ Analyzing Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators Market sentiment and economic indicators play a vital role in the success of carry trades. Positive economic data from the high-yield currency's country can strengthen the currency, enhancing the trade's profitability. Conversely, negative news can lead to currency depreciation and potential losses. For example, during periods of global economic stability, carry trades tend to perform well as investors seek higher yields. However, during economic uncertainty or risk aversion, low-yield currencies like the JPY and CHF often appreciate, leading to carry trade unwinding. 5️⃣ Risk Management and Hedging Strategies Risk management is critical in carry trading due to the inherent risks of currency fluctuations and interest rate changes. You should use stop-loss orders or damage control to limit potential losses and consider hedging strategies to protect against adverse movements. For example, options and futures contracts can provide a hedge against currency risk. Additionally, maintaining a diversified portfolio and not over-leveraging can help manage risk. 6️⃣ Historical Case Study: The Japanese Yen Carry Trade One of the most famous examples of a carry trade is the Japanese yen carry trade. In the early 2000s, Japan's low-interest rates led many traders to borrow yen and invest in higher-yielding currencies like the USD and AUD. This strategy was highly profitable until the global financial crisis of 2008, when risk aversion led to a rapid unwinding of carry trades. The yen appreciated significantly as traders repaid their yen-denominated loans, resulting in substantial losses for many. This case highlights the importance of understanding market conditions and having robust risk management strategies in place. 7️⃣ Adapting Carry Trade Strategies for Modern Markets While the basic principles of carry trading remain relevant, modern markets require adaptive strategies. Advances in technology and data analysis have made it easier to monitor interest rate differentials and market conditions in real-time. Traders can use algorithmic trading systems to execute carry trades more efficiently and reduce the impact of human emotions. Moreover, integrating carry trade strategies with other trading methods, such as trend following or mean reversion, can enhance overall portfolio performance. Carry trade strategies offer a compelling opportunity for forex traders to profit from interest rate differentials. However, successful implementation requires a thorough understanding of interest rates, careful currency pair selection, diligent risk management, and the ability to adapt to changing market conditions.
Education
by AlexSoro
4
The Bull Market in Private EquityThe other day I was scanning for stocks hitting 52-week highs (or in other words, their highest price in 12 months' time) and noticed that several private equity stocks appeared on this custom scan that I was performing. The stocks were KKR, Blackstone, and Apollo Global. I found a few things interesting about this that are worth discussing and looking into more detail: The Trend is Your Friend? Foremost, the question is whether or not these are a trend play and a way to play a rising trend. Oftentimes, trend followers love nothing more than getting behind a tidal wave in a new thriving industry or market or process. It’s shown quite a bit to be an effective strategy. However, always do your own research. But that’s the first question - will this trend last another 5+ years? Private equity firms have been making headlines with their strategic acquisitions and impressive returns. But can they maintain this momentum? Private Equity Bull Market, Possibly Explained Private Equity firms like KKR, Blackstone, and Apollo Global operate by raising funds from investors, which they then use to acquire, manage, and eventually sell companies at a profit. They focus on improving the operational efficiencies and financial performance of these companies. Some notable examples include: KKR: Known for its leverage buyouts and investments in various sectors such as technology, healthcare, and energy. Blackstone: A diversified investment firm with holdings in real estate, private equity, hedge fund solutions, and credit. Apollo Global: Specializes in private equity, credit, and real estate investing, with a strong focus on distressed assets and value investing. They Are Flush With Cash & Assets As of the latest data, Blackstone manages over $900 billion in assets, making it the largest private equity firm globally. KKR has approximately $500 billion in assets under management. Apollo Global oversees around $550 billion in assets. Cash Reserves and Interest Earnings Private Equity currently has quite a bit of cash and investments under management. They are earning interest on this cash on Treasuries up to 5%. For instance, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, these firms are leveraging their cash reserves to earn substantial returns on relatively risk-free investments like U.S. Treasuries. This provides a steady income stream and enhances their financial stability, enabling them to pursue larger and more lucrative deals. Cautionary Note on Illiquid Assets Lastly, I do want to share a cautionary note as these firms also hold a lot of illiquid assets. What would happen if those assets got marked lower? For example, some of them own quite a bit of real estate. What's the plan here? Have they marked them down accordingly? The real estate market is one area of concern. If property values decline significantly, these firms could face substantial write-downs on their balance sheets, affecting their overall financial health. It's crucial to monitor how these firms manage their illiquid assets and whether they have adequately adjusted their valuations in line with current market conditions. So What Are My Final Thoughts? This is a fascinating story to be unfolding in markets and I am watching closely. I think there are two ways to watch this: A - They are in a trend. Uptrend. Bull market. B - They may offer an intriguing short position at a later stage! More on this later and read my idea below to better understand what I am looking at.
NYSE:APO
by scheplick