$CNGDPYY - China's GDP (Q3/2024)ECONOMICS:CNGDPYY Q3/2024
source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
-The Chinese economy expanded 4.6% YoY in Q3 of 2024,
compared with market forecasts of 4.5% and a 4.7% rise in Q2.
It marked the slowest annual growth rate since Q1 2023, amid persistent property weakness, shaky domestic demand, deflation risks, and trade frictions with the West.
The latest figures came as Beijing had intensified stimulus measures to boost economic recovery and rebuild confidence.
In September alone, there were some positive signs:
industrial output and retail sales both saw their largest increases in four months, and the urban jobless rate fell to a three-month low of 5.1%.
On the trade front, however, exports rose the least in five months while imports were sluggish. In the first three quarters of the year, the economy grew by 4.8%, compared with China’s full-year target of around 5%.
During the period, fixed investment rose by 3.4% yoy, topping consensus of 3.3%.
Growthrate
Comparative Analysis of US and UK EconomiesDear Traders,
I would like to offer my perspective on the major economic drivers for USD and GBP. Like the famous investor John Bogle says, "The market may be crazy, but it's not entirely insane. Fundamentals matter." This analysis compares key economic indicators of both countries in order to explore potential impacts on the GBP/USD currency pair in the long term. Examining GDP, growth rates, interest rates, inflation, jobless rates, government finances, external balances, and population dynamics displayed above, I intend to provide insights into the relative strengths and challenges of each economy.
ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE
USD exhibits a larger GDP and higher growth rate , implying a more robust economy. They both have similar interest rates, but USD's higher growth puts it in a position of advantage.
INFLATION, JOBLESS RATE, AND GOV. FINANCES
GBP faces higher inflation, which affects it purchasing power against USD.
Both nations show low jobless rates; the UK maintains a lower debt-to-GDP ratio (good for GBP).
EXTERNAL BALANCES AND POPULATION DYNAMICS
Both countries have current account deficits, but the UK's larger deficit may affect its currency negatively. USD represents a significantly larger population, influencing economic scale.
MY TAKE
Understanding the economic dynamics of USD and GBP is crucial for interpreting potential influences on the GBP/USD pair in the long term. From the economic data and analysis presented above, it is evident that USD shows economic strength , while GBP shows stability . In the light of this, I expect a stronger USD (DXY) in the coming weeks or months. The currency pair may see fluctuations as institutions assess these strengths and challenges, but my bias on the GBPUSD pair is BEARISH.
A break below 1.2451 will likely send the pair to 1.2207 price region or even lower.
zoom out broinspired by @spoofyy
...it's easy to look at the log rainbow and think uponly.
***NOTE: you can't lock chart when in log mode...so you'll have to play with the price scale (squeeze and stretch) til the spiral fits the tops like it did when i posted it***
but when you account for bitty topping out at lower and lower fib levels within the rainbow...you can see potential decay in the trend.
obviously we could just be in a lull and could hit $1000000 in ten years (hello hyperinflation)
but i wanted to visualize decay bc i genuinely think the log rainbow's uponly blinds me
log rainbow script:
then made double curves and visually fit them
spiral made from '11 bull market (bottom back to top diagonally) and fit to tops
i'm wary of using spirals on log charts but they seem to work a lot of the time? ... maybe bc "this is the life we have chosen" (hyperactive exponential growth)