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Growth, Momentum & Innovation: Updated WatchlistUpdated Watchlist As we dive deeper into our trading strategy inspired by Mark Minervini, I'm excited to share a detailed analysis of our updated watchlist: www.tradingview.com This list is meticulously curated, focusing on stocks poised for potential pullback entries, suitable for short to medium-term trades. Here’s what we’ve analyzed: Selection of Stocks in Strong Uptrends: Our primary filter is selecting stocks exhibiting strong uptrends over the past weeks or months. We use specific criteria like stocks trading above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, a sign of enduring strength. Additionally, we look for stocks outperforming the market index, indicating relative strength. Volume Analysis During Pullbacks: We observe the trading volume during pullbacks. An ideal scenario is a pullback on lower-than-average volume, suggesting a lack of selling pressure. A sudden increase in volume can sometimes signal capitulation, which might lead to a potential reversal. Key Support Levels and Technical Indicators: Stocks approaching critical support levels, such as major moving averages or historical support zones, are of high interest. We combine this with technical indicators like the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) to gauge oversold conditions and potential bullish divergence. Price Action and Chart Patterns: We're scrutinizing price patterns that align with Minervini's SEPA (Specific Entry Point Analysis) criteria. This includes looking for stocks forming bases, tight consolidations, or exhibiting orderly pullbacks without significant volume spikes. Flags, pennants, and narrow range days near support areas are particularly noteworthy. Earnings and Fundamental Check: While our focus is on technical analysis, we don't ignore fundamental aspects. We check upcoming earnings dates and ensure that the stocks have solid fundamentals, aligning with Minervini's preference for quality stocks. Here is a detailed sector analysis of the stock on our watchlist: Technology (27 stocks) The Technology sector is heavily represented in your watchlist, indicating a focus on companies involved in software, hardware, and various technology services. This sector is known for its growth potential, innovation, and significant impact on global trends. Companies like Google, Microsoft, and AMD are included, reflecting an interest in both established giants and emerging players. Healthcare (7 stocks) This sector includes companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, and medical devices. With stocks like Amgen and Regeneron, the focus seems to be on companies with strong R&D capabilities and potential breakthrough therapies or technologies. Financials (1 stock) A smaller focus in your watchlist, indicating a selective interest in the financial services industry. StoneCo is included, suggesting an interest in fintech or emerging financial technologies. Materials (1 stock) With Cameco Corp included, there's an interest in the materials sector, potentially focusing on resources critical to the technology and energy sectors, such as uranium for nuclear energy. Internet (6 stocks) A focus on companies that operate primarily on the internet, including e-commerce, social media, and online services, suggests a bullish view on the digital economy's growth prospects. Software (9 stocks) Software companies, including those providing cloud services, enterprise software solutions, and software development tools, indicate a strong belief in the continued expansion of digital transformation across industries. Biotechnology (4 stocks) With a focus on biotech firms like CRISPR and Vertex Pharmaceuticals, there's a clear interest in companies that are on the cutting edge of medical research and development, potentially offering high rewards but also high risk. Information Technology (7 stocks) This includes a broader look at IT companies, focusing on semiconductors, software, and technology services, highlighting the critical role of IT infrastructure in the modern economy. Semiconductors (3 stocks) With companies like TSMC, AMD, and Qualcomm, there's a targeted interest in the semiconductor industry, which is vital for a wide range of technologies from consumer electronics to data centers and AI. This analysis shows a diversified yet focused interest in sectors that are pivotal to technological innovation and digital transformation. The emphasis on Technology, Healthcare, and Internet-related stocks suggests a strategy that leans towards growth investing, particularly in areas that are expected to shape future economic landscapes. ​
NASDAQ:QQQ
by JS_TechTrading
Momentum, Growth & Innovation: WatchlistAs we dive deeper into our trading strategy inspired by Mark Minervini, I'm excited to share a detailed analysis of our updated watchlist: www.tradingview.com This list is meticulously curated, focusing on stocks poised for potential pullback entries, suitable for short to medium-term trades. Here’s what we’ve analyzed: Selection of Stocks in Strong Uptrends: Our primary filter is selecting stocks exhibiting strong uptrends over the past weeks or months. We use specific criteria like stocks trading above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, a sign of enduring strength. Additionally, we look for stocks outperforming the market index, indicating relative strength. Volume Analysis During Pullbacks: We observe the trading volume during pullbacks. An ideal scenario is a pullback on lower-than-average volume, suggesting a lack of selling pressure. A sudden increase in volume can sometimes signal capitulation, which might lead to a potential reversal. Key Support Levels and Technical Indicators: Stocks approaching critical support levels, such as major moving averages or historical support zones, are of high interest. We combine this with technical indicators like the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) to gauge oversold conditions and potential bullish divergence. Price Action and Chart Patterns: We're scrutinizing price patterns that align with Minervini's SEPA (Specific Entry Point Analysis) criteria. This includes looking for stocks forming bases, tight consolidations, or exhibiting orderly pullbacks without significant volume spikes. Flags, pennants, and narrow range days near support areas are particularly noteworthy. Sector and Market Sentiment Analysis: Understanding the current market sentiment and sector rotation plays a crucial role. Stocks in leading sectors or those showing resilience in a weak market are preferred. We also consider the broader market trend and economic indicators to assess the overall risk environment. Risk Management and Entry Points: Each stock on our watchlist comes with a predefined risk management plan, including stop-loss levels and potential entry points. We're waiting for a reversal signal, such as a high-volume rebound off a support level or a break of a short-term downtrend line, to initiate positions. Earnings and Fundamental Check: While our focus is on technical analysis, we don't ignore fundamental aspects. We check upcoming earnings dates and ensure that the stocks have solid fundamentals, aligning with Minervini's preference for quality stocks. Stocks on the Watchlist: The provided watchlist represents a curated selection of stocks currently held by ARK Invest, managed by Cathie Wood, renowned for her focus on disruptive innovation and growth investing. This analysis will delve into each sector represented in the watchlist, highlighting the unique attributes and potential of these investments. ARK's strategy is characterized by a deep focus on technology-driven companies and emerging industries, which is evident in this diverse and forward-looking portfolio. Technology and Internet Services: Dominated by giants like Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG), and Meta Platforms (META), this sector encapsulates companies at the forefront of digital transformation. Amazon continues to be a leader in e-commerce and cloud computing, while Microsoft and Google drive innovation in software and online services. Meta Platforms, formerly Facebook, is investing heavily in the metaverse, indicating a future-focused strategy. Semiconductors and Hardware: This category features semiconductor leaders like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM), Nvidia (NVDA), and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). TSM is critical in the global supply chain, being the world's largest dedicated independent semiconductor foundry. Nvidia and AMD are at the forefront of graphics processing and computing technologies, vital for gaming, AI, and more. Biotechnology and Healthcare: Represented by CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN), and Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), this sector focuses on cutting-edge medical research and treatments. CRISPR Therapeutics is a pioneer in gene editing, a revolutionary technology in medicine. Regeneron and Vertex are known for their innovative drug discoveries and treatments in various disease areas. Financial Technology and Cryptocurrencies: This sector includes MercadoLibre (MELI), a leader in e-commerce and financial services in Latin America, and Coinbase (COIN), a prominent cryptocurrency exchange. The inclusion of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) highlights ARK's investment in the evolving landscape of digital currencies and blockchain technology. Software and Cloud Computing: Companies like Twilio (TWLO), Cloudflare (NET), Intuit (INTU), and Synopsys (SNPS) underscore the growing importance of cloud computing and software solutions across industries. Twilio's communication APIs and Cloudflare's content delivery network are integral to modern internet infrastructure, while Intuit and Synopsys provide critical software services in finance and chip design, respectively. Gaming and Entertainment: Roku (ROKU) and Roblox (RBLX) represent the dynamic gaming and digital entertainment sectors. Roku's streaming platform and Roblox's online gaming universe cater to the rapidly expanding digital entertainment market.
NASDAQ:COINLong
by JS_TechTrading
+15.6% in November: Harnessing the Power of Minervini's StrategyThis November, my 'Growth, Innovation & Momentum' portfolio is up by more than 15%. I embarked on a fascinating journey in the world of stock trading, closely following Mark Minervini's esteemed trading strategies. Minervini, a renowned stock market wizard, is famous for his SEPA (Specific Entry Point Analysis) methodology, a combination of technical analysis and risk management. As I navigated through the dynamic landscape of the stock market, I applied these principles, aiming to optimize my swing trading approach. Today, I'm excited to share with you a detailed analysis of my portfolio's performance. The Core of Minervini's Strategy Mark Minervini's strategy revolves around identifying stocks with strong potential before they make their significant upward moves. The key elements of his approach include: Trend Template: Minervini focuses on stocks in a strong uptrend. Risk Management: He emphasizes strict stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Volume Analysis: Volume spikes on up days are a positive sign. Entry Points: Entering at specific points to maximize gains while minimizing risks. My Portfolio Performance: A Deep Dive Overview Overall Performance: +15.6% Total Winners: 27 trades Total Losers: 13 trades] Batting Average: 67.5% Key Takeaways Winning Edge: A batting average of 67.5% signifies a robust strategy in picking winners, aligning with Minervini's emphasis on stock selection. Entry and Exit Strategies Following Minervini, I aimed for precision in entry and exit points. I sought stocks showing signs of breakout with high trading volumes, entering positions during their early upward trend phases. For exits, I set strict stop-loss levels, though I'm looking to refine these further. Risk Management Risk control is a cornerstone of Minervini's method. I maintained a disciplined approach to stop-loss orders, though my average loss suggests a need for tighter control. Moving forward, I plan to implement more stringent risk assessment techniques. Stock of the Month: Vertex On Dec 13th, Vertex jumped by a whopping +13.2% following encouraging news regarding the Opinion for Sickle Cell Disease Therapy From European Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use. Here is the link to my current portfolio: www.tradingview.com
NASDAQ:META
by JS_TechTrading
FRONTLINE PLC Long - Dollar Cost AverageThis is an analysis of Frontline PLC - a Norwegian oil transportation company, the following is strictly my own personal opinion and does not constitute financial advice. Key numbers: Dividend yield expected 2024 - 17% P/B - 2.03 P/E - 5.41 Market cap 47 178 MNOK (4.5 BUSD) Analyst estimates: Analyst estimate average for FRO is 267.5 NOK which is equivalent to a 32.3% increase from todays price. Key information: FRO has had a significant increase in price the past 6 months, and analysts estimate an increase in both dividends and growth for the company in the coming years. Technical analysis: FRO made a bullish divergence on the 195-200 support level recently, after a significant sell off the past few weeks the stock did not even drop as a result of dividends being paid out to stock holders, and I see this as a sign of the stock being about to reverse the downwards trend and begin to move back towards my price target of 260-280. Strategy: I am currently in possession of FRO shares with a GAV of 150 NOK/Share as well as increasing my position on friday for 200 NOK/Share. I am looking to hold these shares until price reaches 260-300 NOK/Share depending on coming events. If the price keeps moving down, I will look to hold my position until the stock reaches my price target regardless, as the dividend payout is significant. This might change if significantly bearish news arise, but I do not see that as a high probability at this moment. If price reaches my profit target, I will again look at analyst estimates and given there is no change I will exit my position for a significant gain. If analyst estimates increase I will either close part of my position or hold it until bearish divergence on the 4H timeframes.
OSL:FROLong
by DonBboy
2
Momentum, Growth and Innovation: RHMWe have just added a new position (RHM) to our 'Growth, Momentum and Innovation' portfolio with 11% of total equity. Here is the link to our updated portfolio, which is up > 18% in the last month: www.tradingview.com Technical Analysis According to Minervini’s Principles Trend: Rheinmetall's stock should be evaluated against the major moving averages. Minervini looks for stocks trading above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages to indicate an overall uptrend. If RHM is above these averages and they are sloped upwards, it aligns with Minervini’s criteria for a bullish trend. Price Action: Minervini favors tight price action and volatility contraction. It's key to look for lower volatility and tighter price consolidation before the breakout. This can be seen in the narrowing of the Bollinger Bands or a decrease in daily price range. If your entry corresponds with a breakout from such a consolidation with a definitive move above resistance, this is in line with Minervini’s strategy. Volume: Volume is critical in confirming breakouts. For Minervini, an ideal entry is accompanied by a significant increase in volume, indicating strong institutional buying. If the entry day shows higher volume compared to previous days, particularly if it is 40-50% above the average, it validates the trade entry. Relative Strength: Minervini often emphasizes the importance of relative strength, especially in a weak market. If RHM is outperforming the market and its peers, that would be a positive sign. Entry Point: A proper entry is at the breakout from a sound base pattern. If RHM is breaking out from such a base, ideally after a period of price contraction, and doing so on higher volume, it would be considered a good entry point. Risk Management: Setting a stop loss is crucial. Minervini typically sets stop losses just below the breakout point or a recent swing low to minimize potential losses. Background Information on Rheinmetall AG Rheinmetall AG is a significant player in the automotive and defense industries. They are known for: Defense: Producing military vehicles, weapons, ammunition, and electronics. They are often involved in large contracts with governments around the world. Automotive: Supplying engine systems, pumps, pistons, and other automotive parts to the commercial vehicle and passenger car markets. Market Position: As a leading defense contractor and automotive supplier, Rheinmetall has a strong market position in Europe and significant international presence.
XETR:RHMLong
by JS_TechTrading
2
Momentum, Growth and Innovation: NVDAWe have just added a new position (NVDA) to our 'Growth, Momentum and Innovation' portfolio with 11% of total equity. Here is the link to our updated portfolio, which is up > 20% in the last month: www.tradingview.com Here is a more detailed analysis of this trade: Technical Analysis Trend: NVDA has been in a general uptrend, as indicated by the price being above the major moving averages (50-day, 100-day, 200-day), which are also sloping upwards. Moving Averages: The stock is currently trading above its short-term moving average (50-day) but there appears to be a slight pullback, which could be seen as a buying opportunity in an uptrend, as per Minervini's trend following strategies. Volume: There's been increased trading volume on up days, suggesting strong buying interest. According to Minervini, higher volume accompanying price advances is a positive sign. Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is not in an overbought territory (below 70), which could indicate that there is still room for upside before the stock becomes overextended. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): The MACD line is above the signal line but starting to converge, indicating potential for a change in momentum. However, as long as the MACD remains above the signal line, it is typically considered bullish. Support/Resistance: The stock has recently bounced off a support level and is making its way towards a potential resistance area. The pullback to the support could be part of a "high tight flag" pattern, which Minervini finds favorable. Price Action: The recent price action has formed what appears to be a consolidation pattern after a strong uptrend, which may be indicative of a pause before a continuation of the trend. Background Analysis Market Conditions: Mark Minervini advocates trading in sync with the overall market. If the market indices are in a confirmed uptrend, individual stock trades like NVDA are more likely to succeed. Earnings and Fundamentals: NVDA is known for its strong market position in graphics processing units (GPUs) and its expansion into areas like artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, and data centers. Sector Performance: NVDA is part of the technology sector, and its performance is often tied to the tech industry's overall health. A bullish sentiment in the tech sector can contribute to individual stock success. Risk Management: Following Minervini's risk management rules, it's essential to have a predetermined stop loss to protect capital. The trade should also be sized appropriately, not risking more than a small percentage of the trading capital on any single trade. Entry Point: According to Minervini's strategy, this entry is considered a pullback entry which further reduces the risk of this trade.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by JS_TechTrading
Opened new position: NUNU has been added as a new position to our portfolio (8.5% of equity). The trade has been opened as the price took out Friday's high. This is a pullback entry and a low risk trade. The SL can be set at the 50d MA or at Friday's low for swing traders. NU shows a strong relative IBD strength and the stock hass been recently oversold. NU is a holding of Cathy Wood's ARK portfolio. Here is the link to our updated portfolio which is up > 16% in November: www.tradingview.com
NYSE:NULong
by JS_TechTrading
Momentum, Growth & InnovationUpated Portolio: Here is the link to our updated portfolio which has been up by ca. 10% in November: www.tradingview.com Selection Criteria: Introducing our cutting-edge trading strategy, a synergy of Cathy Wood's keen fundamental analysis and Mark Minervini's acclaimed trend template criteria. Imagine having the foresight to identify high-potential technology stocks that are not just promising on paper but are actively demonstrating robust performance in the market. That's the core of our approach. We meticulously select stocks that Cathy Wood's methodology identifies as leaders in technological innovation, ensuring that each company has a solid foundation for growth. But we don't stop there. We apply Mark Minervini's trend template to verify that these stocks are not only fundamentally sound but are also in a confirmed stage 2 uptrend. This dual-layered strategy ensures that you're investing in companies that are both revolutionizing their industries and are currently capturing the market's momentum. With our trading strategy, you're not just betting on potential; you're investing in technology stocks that are set to soar, backed by the analytical prowess of two of the most respected names in the trading world. Join us, and be part of a select group of traders who demand the best of both worlds: groundbreaking innovation and proven market trends.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by JS_TechTrading
MOMENTUM, GROWTH & INNOVATIONUpdated Watchlist: www.tradingview.com Selection Criteria: Introducing our cutting-edge trading strategy, a synergy of Cathy Wood's keen fundamental analysis and Mark Minervini's acclaimed trend template criteria. Imagine having the foresight to identify high-potential technology stocks that are not just promising on paper but are actively demonstrating robust performance in the market. That's the core of our approach. We meticulously select stocks that Cathy Wood's methodology identifies as leaders in technological innovation, ensuring that each company has a solid foundation for growth. But we don't stop there. We apply Mark Minervini's trend template to verify that these stocks are not only fundamentally sound but are also in a confirmed stage 2 uptrend. This dual-layered strategy ensures that you're investing in companies that are both revolutionizing their industries and are currently capturing the market's momentum. With our trading strategy, you're not just betting on potential; you're investing in technology stocks that are set to soar, backed by the analytical prowess of two of the most respected names in the trading world. Join us, and be part of a select group of traders who demand the best of both worlds: groundbreaking innovation and proven market trends.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by JS_TechTrading
NASDAQ Heatmap Last WeekOverall Market Movement: The heatmap shows a wide array of colors, indicating varied performance among the companies. The majority of the companies appear to be in the green, suggesting a generally positive week for the Nasdaq 100. Sector Performance: Technology Services: Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOGL) show significant gains of +6.85% and +6.01% respectively. Electronic Technology: Notably, Apple (AAPL) has a +6.77% increase, indicating a strong performance for the week. Retail Trade: Amazon (AMZN) stands out with a +5.99% gain. Top Performers: NVIDIA (NVDA) shows an exceptional increase of +14.14%, making it one of the top performers. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) also shows a substantial gain of +15.28%. Adobe (ADBE) has a significant rise of +9.33%. Contrasting Performances: While most technology-related companies are in green, there are some companies like AstraZeneca (AZN) in health technology with a slight decrease of -0.09%. Consumer Services and Goods: A mix of performances is seen with some companies like Comcast (CMCSA) showing no change (0.00%), while others like Tesla (TSLA) have a considerable increase of +8.10%. Indicators: The top bar shows a market cap indicator with varying sizes of squares, representing the relative market capitalization of the companies. From this heatmap, we can deduce that the week was positive for the majority of tech companies, with exceptional performances from semiconductor manufacturers like NVIDIA and AMD. The retail trade sector also performed well, with Amazon showing strong gains. The heatmap suggests investor confidence in the technology sector, especially in established companies with large market capitalizations. However, the slight negative performance in health technology indicates that the positive sentiment was not uniform across all sectors. Our Momentum, Growth & Innovation portfolio is up >12% over last week, significantly outperforming the major market indices. Here is the link to the updated portfolio: www.tradingview.com
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by JS_TechTrading
Upwork price weakness could be a gift for its 5 year growth Upwork is at fair value now, cheap for next year, and potential could grow to a 50-100$ stock over 5 years. Upwork is a freelancer marketplace and recently partnered with Open ai (chat GPT) to provide enterprises access to ai freelance experts and learning. Better value then megacaps: Upwork roughly has a earnings yield of 3% plus for this year 2023, which is not over yet but coming to a close. This price to earnings of 31 is similar to the megacap stocks like Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Facebook. Thats a high PE for any business, and usually inplies a high growth rate in order to command that premium valuation. Upwork, however, isnt a megacap, has more room to rise, and has a higher growth rate potentially than the megacaps. Next year 2024: Next year Upwork is expected to earn 64 cents per share, almost doubling its earnings from this years .37 cents. Using a multiple PE of 25 could land the stock in the 16 dollar range or higher. 25% a year growth in earnings could also command a higher premium if investors anticipate continued year over year growth in the future. 5 year growth potential: Through 2028, over the next 5 years, analysts believe the stock could grow to 1.90 per share (earnings expectations pulled from seekingalpha). Using the same 25 multiple x the 1.90, we estimate a potential valuation of 47.50 for 2028. As we see today many stocks trading at twice the growth rate for PE multiple, and in order to motivate long term investing, we can estimate a 2x growth rate multiple of 95 potential for 2028. In good times, growth stocks commonly trade at 2x multiple for their growth rates in anticipation of further growth in coming years. So now we have 47.50 and 95 as a potential 5 year upside price. Low debt and already free cashflow positive: Many growth or speculative stocks arent even profitable or require too much capital as they scale. Upwork doesnt have that problem, they are already free cashflow positive and have low debt. 8 to 10 price possible in weakness: Based on its price action this year, and with the help of a weak broad market, it wouldnt surprise me to see upwk fall back to the 10 level or even lower to the 8 price in a major sell off. In that event, the earnings yield on UPWK could go from the 3% range to potentially a near 5% earnings yield for this year 2023. A high 4% or near 5% earnings yield would be very interesting for a stock with 20-25% annual growth potential. The compounding of growth at that price entry would be attractive. Summary: Upwork has major growth potential over next 5 years, so keep track of it in case of weakness in the broad market. 50 to 100 in 5 years is possible, so the more it falls now could help open a discount to future value. Hope for a sell off in the 8-10 range.
NASDAQ:UPWK
by ValuePig
IRDM : POSITION TRADEIridium Communications: A Great Company At A Fair Price NASDAQ:IRDM - Iridium Communications has done really well in recent months between landing another large contract and increasing financial guidance. - This has sent shares roaring higher, but this has a downside to it as well. - The stock seems to be more or less fairly valued at this time, even though the firm remains excellent for long-term investors seeking stability. ...As revenue has risen, profitability has also increased. Net income of $4.6 million in the latest quarter was higher than the $3.8 million reported the same time one year earlier. Operating cash flow in the latest quarter came in at $99.8 million. That's 32.7% above the $75.2 million generated just one year earlier. Meanwhile, EBITDA for the company expanded from $94.8 million in the second quarter of 2021 to $105.9 million the same time this year. Naturally, this strong bottom line performance has had a positive impact on the company's results for the first half of the year as a whole. Due to how things are turning out so far this year, the management team at Iridium Communications decided recently to increase their guidance for the current fiscal year. Read more on: seekingalpha.com Daniel Jones, Seeking Alpha, Aug. 02, 2022 11:15 PM ET
NASDAQ:IRDMLong
by TradingMavericks
adA IS BUllISh YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSTL;DR Synopsis Cardano price analysis reveals a bullish trend, with ADA/USD facing rejection at $0.4478. Support for ADA is present at $0.4296. Cardano price analysis is providing us with strong optimistic signs for the day. The bullish tide has been quite strong, as price levels have been growing at a regular and consistent rate. The price is currently at $0.4402, which is a significant victory for purchasers. More positive movement is predicted as support at $0.4296 is stabilized.] All in all, Cardano price research reveals that the currency has been able to make a strong rebound today and buyers have been successful in pushing prices over $11.4402. However, the bulls must watch for the resistance at $10.4478, which could pose a barrier to further gains. The strong bullish momentum suggests that Cardano's price may rise above the given level if buyers maintain market pressure. dm for more info
KRAKEN:ADAUSDLong
by DEinvestment
SIVB: A Cautionary Tale for Investors Following Stock BloggersAfter SVB has failed, which has raised concerns about the stability of US banks, as recent news reports indicate, I have questions about the reliability of stock bloggers/vloggers. Especially those telling you about “the best growth stock to buy right now”, “this stock is down by 50%, is it a buy now?” First, I would like to remember these four key events marked in the chart: 1. On March 16, 2022, after the war in Ukraine had begun in February, the fears of rising inflation led the Fed to start hiking federal funds benchmark rate by 25 basis points for the first time since 2018. While FOMC stated that “The implications for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain, but in the near term the invasion and related events are likely to create additional upward pressure on inflation and weigh on economic activity.” 2. Additionally, on 13 June, 2022, S&P 500 slipped into the bear market territory by dropping more than 21% from its all-time record on 3 January, 2022. 3. On July 5, the spread between the 10-Year/2-Year US government bonds yield breached the negative area (until present), signaling to a potential recession. 4. Finally, on February 3, 2023, nonfarm payroll employment rose by 517,000 in January 2023, smashing the expectation of 185,000, and indicating the persistence of inflation as well as the possibility of rate hikes for longer periods. Beyond that, the unrealized losses of the total available for sale securities – which include T-bills and mortgage-backed securities – has nearly doubled during 2022. SVB reported unrealized losses for AFS securities of $2.533 billion as of December 31, 2022, comparing to $1.303 billion at March 31, 2022, with total assets of $220.355 and $211.793 billion respectively. Some of these losses are attributed to the tumbling bond market. Along that way, SIVB has tumbled so heavily. From my point of view, with my little experience, these losses of SIVB would have not made any buying opportunity, taking into account the previous events and the bank business model. However, many stock bloggers published so many articles advising to buy SIVB as, for example, “one the best growth stocks”, “safest banking stock”, “it is time to buy the dip” and so on, with a deep confidence in the management of the bank and its businesses. Eventually, SIVB trading is halted and “pending the release of material news.” No one knows now what is coming after. The question is now for those well-known stock bloggers, how did you not see that coming and why are you giving such advice of buying growth stocks in the middle of the rising recession likelihood environment at the first place? One answer that they might give you is that this advice for investors who seek to hold the stocks for 3 to 5 years or more, year after a year. Stock bloggers won’t stop publishing articles about “the best growth stock to buy right now” even if the great depression itself is back. So, back to the best advice of all time, do your own research and take nobody’s word for your investment decisions – especially those bloggers. If you are unable to do your research properly, avoid making investment decisions based on general ideas and do not buy or sell any stocks without sufficient information.
SEducation
by SamerHa
United Rentals (URI): Stock is overbought and due for pullbackI am bullish on United Rentals (URI) for the long-term looking 3 to 5 years ahead. The company has great fundamentals and is holding up well in this environment where we could see a recession in the U.S. in 2023. URI just reported a positive Q4 earnings with a strong outlook. The technicals show an overbought condition on the 1 day chart. So, I am anticipating a decline in the stock which could be triggered by the Fed meeting on 1/31 & 2/1 depending on actions taken and what is said about future rate increases. Action: wait for a decline, then buy The link contains an article with a detailed discussion.
NYSE:URI
by Zman1175
YOU : POSITION TRADEClear Secure: Talk About A Bullish Economic Moat • Clear Secure is capturing strong demand for its identity verification platform as a service to save time at security checkpoints. • Partnerships with airports, airlines and even the Transportation Security Administration highlight competitive advantages to drive growth. • An outlook for accelerating earnings can send the stock higher. • Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Conviction Dossier get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Clear Secure, Inc. (NYSE:YOU) offers a secure identity verification platform. If you've recently traveled through one of 46 major airports, you'll likely have seen the "Clear" checkpoints as a separate lane in the security process. Clear Pass focuses on the ID verification side of the airport screening process. The other step is the actual security area where travelers and carry-on luggage are checked for contraband. With the company's history going back more than a decade, the game changer now is a belief that the operation has finally reached a critical mass with enough locations where the service can make sense to a wide range of travelers. This concept is related to the network effect where the value of the service grows as its user base expands. Furthermore, the platform is being utilized in other applications where security screening is a requirement and there is room to capture efficiencies in the process. Members of Clear Plus also have the option to use the features at entertainment venues and stadiums where a security line often forms. Clear also offers a Health Pass which gained prominence during the pandemic with validation of COVID testing results and digitization of vaccine status that many types of business in certain areas embrace. Notably, this feature now integrates with Apple Inc.'s (AAPL) "Health App". YOU Key Metrics YOU released its Q3 earnings in mid-November with EPS of $0.05, which beat estimates by $0.05 as consensus was looking for a flat result. Revenue of $116 million climbed by 72% year-over-year, with the strength largely driven by the recovery of the airline industry compared to pandemic disruptions at the start of 2021. Management notes success with in-airport and various partner channels driving memberships captured in a climbing number of bookings along with retention of customers. On the financial side, keep in mind that there was a GAAP loss of -$65.6 million although this mostly reflected share-based compensation and the timing of the vesting from previously issued warrants. More favorably, the underlying shift towards profitability is evidenced by the adjusted EBITDA measure which reached $11.9 million compared to negative -$14.5 million in the period last year. The company also reported a positive free cash flow of $5.3 million. The expectation is that earnings will maintain this more positive momentum going forward. For Q4, management is guiding for revenue of around $124 million, implying a growth rate of 54% compared to Q4 2021, and up 7% on a quarter-over-quarter basis. Finally, we can mention Clear Secure maintains a solid balance sheet, ending the quarter with $700 million in cash and cash equivalents against effectively zero long-term financial debt. The position is strong enough that the Board of Directors declared a special $0.25 dividend which was paid in December. Are There Risks? The key for the company will be to maintain the pace of signups for new members while finding success in international markets. Longer-term, Clear Secure will need to become the global standard for secure identity verification not just in travel, but also leisure, and other industries with a visible presence in more and more countries as part of the bullish case. The other side to the discussion would be the risk that growth simply begins to disappoint while the expected earnings fail to materialize. One concern is that the company may have already captured the "low-hanging fruit" of hard-core heavy business travelers where the Clear Pass makes the most sense, at least from the U.S. market. By this measure, doubling the number of cumulative platform users from here will be more difficult. There is also an argument that if "everyone" is using Clear/TSA PreCheck, it begins to defeat the purpose of a priority security lane membership. It's not there yet but could become a problem at certain airports if the platform is too successful. Going further, a skeptic would also point to the regulatory risks where the service no longer becomes viable based on changing laws in the future or even in a scenario of a headline-making failure in the system that would undermine confidence in the company's security protocol. Read more on : seekingalpha.com Dan Victor, CFA, Seeking Alpha, Jan. 05, 2023 3:19 PM ET
NYSE:YOULong
by TradingMavericks
ANET - Resting for a WhileANET is resting for a while in its accumulation zone. This cloud-computing company experienced a boom in 2021 when its price doubled. However, by the start of 2022, it has entered accumulation stage after witnessing a brief failed decline. FUNDAMENTALS OF ANET ANET has impressive fundamentals. Its financial results are better in every quarter than its previous quarter - a key indicator for a multi-bagger company. Its revenue grew 42 % in TTM while its net income saw a rise of 48% in TTM. Company has high margins and negligible debt, making it resilient to deteriorating financial conditions and interest rate hikes. WHEN TO BUY Once ANET is out of accumulation zone with increasing volumes, that's best time to buy it.
NYSE:ANETLong
by starringinvestors