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Don't fear the capitulationINVESTMENT CONTEXT Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed the key priority of the Fed is bringing down inflation, even while acknowledging that monetary policy can't address critical components like food and energy. Powell also a stated a recession is “certainly possible,” but not in the near term as the U.S. economy remains “in good shape.” Turkey's central bank is expected to hold its benchmark rate steady at 14% on June 23, after it kept interest rates deeply below zero when adjusted for inflation. Norway's Norges Bank is instead set to hike its key rate 25bps to 0.75% Russia is facing three interest payment transfers totaling almost USD 400mln on June 23-24, but more pressing is a Sunday-night deadline on previous missed payments from late May. If the country fails to make those payment - ca. USD 100mln of bond coupons - it will effectively be declared in default Global bank Citi said the probability of a recession is now approaching 50%. The Bank expects 3% growth for the world economy this year and 2.8% in 2023 U.S. President Joe Biden called for a gasoline tax holiday, in an effort to relief households from pump gasoline prices, which briefly surpassed USD 5/gallon BTC trades have entered a dangerous (4) channel with trading range set between 19-21k as volumes fail to return to the blockchain space PROFZERO'S TAKE Value investing has been the key theme across Q1 and most part of Q2 this year, as investors unloaded Growth assets whose bulk of profits are located deep into the future, hence more exposed to higher interest/discount rates. That trend is set to reverse should a recession materialize. In particular, the undisputed champions of the past 150 days, namely Oil & Gas stocks, may steeply retrace as energy demand is threatened by slowing pace of industrial expansion, particularly in China. ProfZero warned back in April that the fat dividends paid this year may dwindle in 2023 as a protracted bear market triggers a recession; consistent with that, ProfZero maintains faith in Value-like Growth stocks, which enjoy state-of the-art balance sheets; top cash generation; and most importantly excel at intangible assets and services - natural price deflators for the economy ProfZero concurs with ProfThree thinking one step ahead - demand for industrial commodities is by definition pre-cyclical, and any slowdown in the near-term should be taken as an early sign of a cooling global economy. Seeing Brent crude tumbling more than 2% just on recession concerns confirms in ProfZero a sense of unease while looking forward on Energy equities; thinking even further though, the feeling of concern permeates the post-recession recovery, whose seeds do not look planted as of yet PROFTHREE'S TAKE One of the commodities to watch this week is iron ore, which has seen a slump to USD 110/ton on June 20 after topping USD 150/ton just two weeks ago. Profs’ eyes are obviously on China (ca. 60% of global steel output), where demand seems to be under threat following the news that steel mills are cutting production in response to weakening real estate sector. ProfThree contends iron ore quotes are finally close to their fundamentally justified levels after a long period of speculation-driven pricing. Yet, a further dramatic correction could still happen since the second half of this year is expected to bring an increase in steel output from China, compensating for the 10% y-o-y output reduction in Q1 due to the Olympics-related emission restrictions. ProfThree also sees infrastructure spending and targeted fiscal as well as monetary stimulus also to prove supportive to supply, thus boosting prices
by ProfZero
TSLA 2021 fractal points to a 540 to 800 range for 3Q2022Don’t expect TSLA to break above 800 in the very short future. If we take the May 2021 yellow box fractal as a guide, the volatility range this 3Q will be between 540 & 800 or even until Oct or Nov of 2022. WHY LOOKING BEARISH: Even Elon himself is preparing for a downturn by reducing labor force. On the technical side, since breaking below 800 in early May2022, TSLA has just been pivoting around the 700 zone unable to recover 800 but instead, it is making lower highs & lower lows this whole June. My M-pattern scenario might still play out with the bottom coming at around 540 or even 420. (I just have a hunch Elon will defend the 542 zone with his illogical TWTR offer price also at 54.20 per share). My maximum pain level of 420 happens to be a 1.618 retracement of the wave B rally. Ending this ABC correction will start wave 5, probably to do a melt-up top before recession kicks in in 2023. EV may be a shortterm solution for current fuel crisis but the chip shortage & charging infrastructure are still headwinds. The expensive cost of EV & EV batteries is also delaying a migration from gasoline & diesel vehicles. Not trading advice
NASDAQ:TSLA
by xtremerider8
Running up that hill - but then?INVESTMENT CONTEXT Analysts sharply raised the probability of a recession, while the Fed announced its support to yet another 75bps rate hike in July A worldwide measure of people’s inflation expectations over the next year was more than 4% in May, up from 2.3% a year ago Russia cut 60% of natural gas supply to Europe via Nord Stream 1 pipeline; cuts are now estimated to have reached 50% to Austria and Germany and 45% to Italy Germany announced it would take emergency measures, including restarting coal-fired power plants, to cushion the impact of lower gas supplies from Russia Turkey offered its support to extending safe grain export corridors from Ukrainian ports A delegation from the IMF arrived in Colombo, Sri Lanka's capital, to discuss a rescue package after the country declared default on its international debt Three Arrows Capital failed to meet demands to provide extra collateral to meet margin calls on digital currency positions PROFZERO'S TAKE Carefully monitoring equities after last week's collapse - not even energy stocks, the clear overperformers of the first 150 days of the year, were spared by the rush to sell. Balancing now Value with Growth may become the major challenge for investors as we head into recession - where the winners of the next decade are dictated Ireland's Finance Minster Paschal Donohoe expressed positive views on the Eurozone, asserting that the balance sheets of the continent's States are in much better shapes then 10 years back, when the contagion of Greece's debt crisis was feared to spill over to Italy and Spain, triggering a spiraling domino effect of defaults. ProfZero unfortunately does not share Mr. Donohoe's optimism. Countries like Italy deeply enjoyed the not-so-implicit backing of the ECB when it came to rolling over government debt in the open market after the investor confidence meltdown in November 2011 - yet no tangible reforms revived the nation's growth and productivity statistics, while public spending rather than targeting infrastructural changes was aimed at winning political approval in the form of heftier unemployment cheques. Taken together, Italy's debt-to-GDP ratio in fact ballooned from 126.5% in 2012 to 150.8% in 2021; inflation may definitely play a role smoothing the nominal debt load, but interest rates are already guiding fixed income traders to bet against the country's solvency, to the point that the ECB had to backtrack on its announcement regarding the end of the EUR 20bn monthly bond-buying program. ProfZero recently reiterated that from an inflation crisis this could easily spiral into a credit downfall; China already had its Evergrande moment. Let's hope the world will suffer a little more piccolo ProfZero often gets asked "Is it the right time to buy?" - The right question would rather be: "Why and what am I buying?" Until we flip our mindset to that, we'll be just chasing trends, ending up being eaten by the sharks PROFONE'S TAKE Following the considerations about the energy of future, ProfOne’s eyes are set on green hydrogen, a promising alternative fuel facing ever-growing demand. Hydrogen has been demonstrated to enjoy potential to replace natural gas in power-hungry industries like cement, steel, ceramics and fertilizers. In the context of de-carbonisation and energy security, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, governments and energy companies upped their investments in green hydrogen: BP (BP) has taken a 40.5% stake in a USD 30bn green hydrogen production project in Australia, while Spain is bidding to become the first green hydrogen hub in Europe. Amidst growing enthusiasm, ProfOne is curious how producers will deal with the challenges of storage and transportation, other than the extremely high production costs. Today's green hydrogen is based on clean electricity from renewable energy; as such, it is ca. 5x more expensive than grey hydrogen (actually the most common, coming from natural gas without emissions recapture). The energy equation has 3 variables: security, reliability and affordability. To date, all known sources can satisfy but 2 at a time - green hydrogen included
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
US10Y making H&S topping pattern with long weekly hammer?US10Y TNX may be topping out. It is both a measure of economic activity & inflation expectation. So is the economy starting to slow down or is inflation slowing down shortterm? It will take years for inflation to come down. If the FED can pull inflation down to at least 4% in a soft landing, it will already be a big success. Stagflation (rising inflation in a slowing economy) is still a big risk, which may take years to recover. A hard landing & aggressive rate hikes may be devastating for stocks but the economy may recover faster. More pain more gain. A topping TNX will be good for TLT bonds & growth stocks. Next supports are 3% & the H&S neck at 2.7%. A measured move for H&S may take TNX to the yellow 2% upper pivot zone, retesting the blue wedge or maybe to retest the big red downchannel from 1981. Not trading advice
TVC:US10YShort
by xtremerider8
SHOP: BOUNCE ZONESHOP (Shopify) has dropped 70% since November 2021. Yes we can drop more. However I like the risk reward ratio here as the price is now sitting on a trend line (in green) connecting the lows of Nov 2019, March 2020 and March 2022. The weekly RSI is slightly oversold and we're starting to see a bullish divergence . Bonds are bouncing already, which could support a bounce in growth stocks . I'm a buyer at this level for a possible bounce to 640. I can cut my position quickly and without too much damage if I'm wrong. If we drop more, the next levels are between 437 and 413... Trade safe.
NYSE:SHOPLong
by Elpidaldo
2
XLK Technology Sector: Signals of DivergenceAs the growth sector #XLK and #NDX makes lower lows there are spots of divergence displaying, which could pose as some upward impulses this week. In that case it could help to normalize a temporary ‘higher low’ in terms of the holistic outlook. My TradingView charts (found at #bsdvs23) have mostly been bearish across the board with a few ‘potential’ bullish intraday traders here-and-there based on the broader technical structure. But that is neither here nor there since the major outlook of the trends is what is most important. All that being said, signs of divergence are now signaling that this area of ‘the higher low’ (big picture) could be setting up for the next leg upward impulse movement in an effort of retesting the lower highs. Granted this will take ‘time and price’ to get to that level and coincidentally coincides with the major earnings session upon us. And I should point out the bearish side of things as well to ensure the audience has the perspective of both sides here. The downside risk is the markets heading for those March lows. Something I have been very focused on the entire month of April in my YouTube videos, Facebook posts, and postings within TradingView. All-in-all, divergence is poking its head and that should provide caution to the wind for the bears. We will keep watch and monitor the Futures Markets as well as the sector spiders and other stocks for turning points going into the economic events this week as I will notate those below. Mon, Apr 18 - 10:00am NAHB Housing Market Index - Day 1 IMF Meetings - 4:00pm FOMC Member Bullard Speaks Tue, Apr 19 - 8:30am Building Permits - Housing Starts - Day 2 IMF Meetings Wed, Apr 20 - 10:00am Existing Home Sales - Day 3 IMF Meetings - 10:30am Crude Oil Inventories - 2:00pm Beige Book Thu, Apr 21 - 8:30am Philly Fed Manufacturing Index - Unemployment Claims - 10:00am CB Leading Index - Day 4 IMF Meetings - 10:30am Natural Gas Storage - 1:00pm Fed Chair Powell Speaks Fri, Apr 22 - 9:45am Flash Manufacturing PMI - Flash Services PMI
AMEX:XLK
by bsdvs23
DLocal $DLO is giving signs of recoveryNASDAQ:DLO is one of the new hot growth stocks that is in everyones radar. The good thing is that as it has been beating up for the las few months, it may be a good play. Since December the MACD is been signaling a bullish divergnece. Now, after a good double-bottom it seems that the price has made a pause making a handle. This volatility compresion with low volume is the perfect signal for an explosive move. And that move may be upward. Still growth stocks haven't been working so I would play very safe. Start with a buy at $34.50 with a small position and then add up as the price maintains the bullish move. Also, beware of the support and resistance zones.
NASDAQ:DLOLong
by dpuleo19
LCID - If you like to be early bird Constructive volume with reclaim of 9 EMA and more importantly mid BB 3 Day chart shows EMA rejection, but that could mean near term weakness - even if it finds bullish flow in the short term. Ideal long entry for me would be around 21 with SL as 20.0 (lower if you have bigger risk appetite) short term target would be around 40. (where VMA would be if the trend reverses. Pullback around 43 would be the safest bet if you are a LT investor.
NASDAQ:LCIDLong
by CheelooTrader
Stocks To WatchMany names are holding up well in this market. Get a pen and paper because I go quickly and make the trade your own.. These names have shown good relative strength and accumulation volume and most are in the growth sector. This may give good risk/reward entries on some of the best names. Some of these charts still need to confirm their price action. This video is my watchlist. Most of these names are at or near all time highs or multi year highs. There are 28 total stocks on this list Many of these have IPO'd in the last few years and still have a growth story ahead of them. Know your time frame and risk tolerance. Know your earnings dates! I go through these quickly so grab a pencil and paper and jot down the names that look interesting to you and then make the trade your own. Good Luck!
NYSE:NOVALong
by Jtacher51
1
ARK funds - Could we see the light at the end of tunnel ? Hello Traders and (and maybe Tech/ Value / Longterm Investors ?), ARK funds took BIG hit last year and sell-offs continue. (Panic and uncertainty at the market, raising Inflation and Interest rates, ... War or Pandemy, what could be worse ? WW3 ? ). So are the ARK funds Investable ? I believe so... but under some conditions. 1) Most stocks were simply overvalued and still not profitable. (Growth stocks investing in the future potential). 2) Most stocks are good picks and can be found also in funds of many other famous investors). 3) You need to believe there are some technologies which will shape future world same like do companies like APPLE, Facebook, Amazin or other giants today. Because many of todays giants are going to do bad decisions (or simply don´t pay attention) and lose their stake of market. 4) Investing in the ETF which is diversified into 30+ Stocks is some king of protection against stockpicking.Entire ARK strategy is based on statistics = some companies will be loosers, BUT some will WIN BIG. To setup some good investing strategy we should find place whereRisk:Reward ratio is best. - If you look at the chart of individual stocks in this ETF most of them are finding lower lows and creating simple / double RSI convergencies. - P/E ratios could be still high (above 20), but check history of Walmart´s or Amazon´s P/E. - Nearest support level is Pre-pandemic zone of 40-60 USD. In my opinion, we are forming last wave (v) of C corrective wave. Using Fibonachi extension of Wave A, ost probable zone for GOOD buy opportunity is around 62.9 USD (1.414 Extension). (= -16% from current level) BEST opportunity will be if the price drops to 49-40 USD zone (Maybe some sharp wick to gather stop-losses). (= - 30% from current level) Risks: - US Dollar currency index seems to form triangel on 1W Timeframe. if we reach to top line and turn around, it will mean positive outlook for speculative High growth companies and Crypto market. - World War 3 (small chance, But in that case the stock market really doesn´t matter for few years); - Very high inflation (than you really wanna be invested in something with huge growth). Recommendation: - DO YOUR HOMEWORK and check all the companies in the ARK fund which you would like to buy to be sure it rezonate with U. also check "Scottish Mortgage Investment TRUST" (Ticker:SMT) which I personally like. They came first with Tesla investment thesis and benefitted most. ;)
AMEX:ARKWLong
by Longevity_Contrarian
1
This is what I want to see on PYPLThe first thing to say is, "I'm faaaar away from developing a setup right now on PYPL; when things are melting, trying to find a bottom is a really unprofitable business (or at least for me). So that's why I use relevant supports/resistances or trendlines as main levels before thinking about developing new setups. In this case, the first trading opportunity I would be interested in is IF the price can break the first trendline. IF that happens, I want to see a correction, and a setup on a new high may be a good opportunity to get exposure to a new bull run. I would like to add to this explanation why I always wait for breakout + correction before trading. This is because most of the time, we don't observe levels being broken like if nothing were there, most of the time when the price reaches or breaks a key level we will tend to observe some kind of retracement (this is valid both for bearish and bullish directions). Waiting for this is a good way of avoiding fakeouts because you are not entering on the first breakout. This means that your drawdowns will tend to be more controlled because you are able to avoid A LOT of low-quality situations by doing this. The negative side is that sometimes the price breaks the level like if nothing were there and you miss the setup (however, I have realized that this is the exception) Going back to the PayPal explanation, I think patience will be my strategy here; I want to see a clear bottom which means observing several more candlesticks before saying "oh, this is reversing" and then paying attention to the descending trendlines, as the first place where I'm thinking on developing setups. At the moment, PYPL stays on my watchlist as "WAIT WAIT WAIT." Thanks for reading! Please feel free to share your view and charts in the comments.
NASDAQ:PYPL
by ThinkingAntsOk
3
NVDA - Nvidia CorporationNVDA is my first buy in close to a month after being stopped out of everything at the beginning of the month. I bought a quarter position in the morning, followed by another quarter later in the day, bringing me to a half sized position at an average price of $238.86. Not in any hurry to add size until I get some traction with the shares I have. The green light to begin buying came on Friday's close, which was a follow-through day on the SPY & QQQ after Monday's day one bottom. Today the indexes continued to follow through, which gave me the confidence to add the second quarter to my position.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by apaqu
1
PLTR. This Future Move Makes Sense. RE-POSTED.NYSE:PLTR was in a rising wedge before it made the recent 43% drop. Now, on the weekly, it appears to be forming a falling wedge . What this means is that we see at least one lower low, before we can break the top of the falling wedge , and eventually reach all time high. Currently, the falling wedge is not confirmed because we have only two touches on its bottom side. Moreover, RSI is sinking lower and lower with each new low. We wait to see a lower low corresponding with a higher RSI low, forming an RSI divergence. When that happens, then we have a trade setup with 80% to 100% upside, depending on where bullish confirmation occurs. For now, we just wait and see.
P
by TechNerdOmar
TSLA current situation + possible directions.Today, we will look at TSLA and the current situation we are in. Technical context: - The price is currently on an ABC flag pattern (yellow lines) - The price is close to an ascending trendline coming from March 2020 - The price has reached a major support level (900.00) What can we expect from here? Bullish perspective: Inside the flag pattern, we can see a white descending trendline, defining the current bearish movement. IF the price breaks it, and we observe a retest (throwback) of it, a new high after that may be a confirmation of a bullish movement towards the higher trendline of the corrective pattern. Bearish perspective: If the price breaks the ascending trendline and makes a clear retest (pullback) of the ascending trendline, a new low after that may be a confirmation of a bearish movement towards the next support zone at 560.00 The main purpose of this post is to define situations, levels, and structures that may be useful for different types of traders. Thanks for reading!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by ThinkingAntsOk
7
MGNI: SETTING UP MY LONG ENTRYMGNI : Despite the fact that I like the fundamentals of this company long term, the below analyses is purely based on technicals . As you can see the chart does not look that great, with all moving averages pointing downward. And the market has not been nice recently with growth stocks . However, I'm looking to buy a few stocks as a long term investment . I usually try to simplify my analyses as much as possible, so I avoid the unnecessary noise. By looking at the weekly chart I see an important zone that has played many times in the past. This zone is between 11.75 and 13 . This is where I'll be looking for an entry or multiple entries. I also see a small divergence between RSI and the price, supporting the fact that we could see a nice bounce (for shorter term traders). That's it! Let me know if you have comments. Trade safe!
NASDAQ:MGNILong
by Elpidaldo
SNOW: BOUNCE CANDIDATE?SNOW : I put SNOW in the bounce candidate and potential continuation upward list. Why? 1. We retraced 50% of the move that started in May. This level is good to initiate a long trade because it allows you to place a stop loss not too far below the line. 2. Demark Sequential is on a 9 daily. (More details below on Demark indicators) 3. The chart looks like a big cup and handle and it seems that we are at the bottom of the handle. The top of the cup is 405. This one is very subjective though. Depending on how markets open, I will look for a long entry . Swing trade . My initial target will be 320-330, then I'll reassess. The success of the trade will depend on how Nasdaq behaves so I'll be careful and monitor the indexes closely. If the trade fails, another interesting level will be around 268. Note: DeMark Indicators are designed to anticipate turning points in the market. A Buy Setup occurs when there are 9 consecutive closes less than the close four days earlier. Trade safe!
NYSE:SNOWLong
by Elpidaldo
$XLE $SXLE 2022 Setup Perfect formation and setup for Energy stocks which I expect bullish performance till end of Q2 2022 and by then most likely 2 interest hikes will be already done. Then as of Q3 also due to base effect inflation will start to come down and rotaion will be from value to growth stocks. on Weekly chart it is even more visible. My 2022 portfolio will be on precious metals gold and silver (more on silver) and energy stocks till June-July and then switching to beaten down tech stocks like ARKK, ARKG, SE, LSPD NOW etc.
LSE:SXLELong
by S5_Trading_Desk
10Y U.S Bond Yield Signaling Rotation from Growth to Value StockTVC:US10Y I'm just looking at the 10Y U.S bond yield to try and better pinpoint the overall macro conditions to expect for the equity market this year. Based on my technical analysis, 10YUS yield is currently trading in an Elliot Wave 5 wave ABCDE pattern, it's inside a triangle that seems to also be the extension of a cup and handle bullish formation. The (D) pattern just reached the top of the triangle pattern, CCI indicator is also on the higher end which indicates the likelihood that this pattern will play out. Right now it looks like it's headed to the (E) phase of the pattern, which is the final phase of the correction before initiating a strong uptrend that could have the 10YUS yield reach 2% or higher (even potential of going pre-pandemic levels). Fundamentals also align with my theory that bond yields will fall from here on until about March, which is also when FED is expected to reverse QE (quantitative easing). After the (E) phase of the EW has been reached, I suspect a massive breakout in bond yields, which can cause a drop in equity markets along with an overall sector rotation from growth to value stock.
TVC:US10Y
by TheRealWolfette
StocksThe Market's longer term uptrend still intact and things look cautiously optimistic. These names have shown good relative strength and accumulation volume and most are in the growth sector. This may give good risk/reward entries on some of the best names. Some of these charts still need to confirm their price action. This video is my watchlist. Most of these names are at or near all time highs or multi year highs. There are 29 total stocks on this list Many of these have IPO'd in the last few years and still have a growth story ahead of them. Know your time frame and risk tolerance. Know your earnings dates! I go through these quickly so grab a pencil and paper and jot down the names that look interesting to you and then make the trade your own. Good Luck!
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by Jtacher51