Kimberly Clark 1971-1991.Analyzing stock Kimberly Clark 1971-1991. According to the book Good to Great by Jim Collins, the stock achieved a fifteen-year result 3.42 times higher than the market. I want to compare the period from the book in which the stock achieved excellent results (which was in the 20th century) and update that comparison with data from the 21st century to see how the stock has progressed further. For more details see my blog, an article should come out soon on this topic.
Growthstocks
Stocks To WatchThe Market's longer term uptrend still intact. Big earnings this week. Be careful. These names have shown good relative strength and accumulation volume and most are in the growth sector. This may give good risk/reward entries on some of the best names. Some of these charts still need to confirm their price action. This video is my watchlist. Most of these names are at or near all time highs or multi year highs. There are 21 total stocks on this list and 3 short squeeze candidates. Many of these have IPO'd in the last few years and still have a growth story ahead of them. Know your time frame and risk tolerance. Know your earnings dates! I go through these quickly so grab a pencil and paper and jot down the names that look interesting to you and then make the trade your own. Good Luck!
Stocks To WatchThe Market may have some more room to the downside with the longer term uptrend still intact,The Mega Cap stocks have earnings this week. Be careful. These names have shown good relative strength and accumulation volume and most are in the growth sector. This may give good risk/reward entries on some of the best names. Some of these charts still need to confirm their price action. This video is my watchlist. Most of these names are at or near all time highs or multi year highs. There are 22 total stocks on this list and 2 short squeeze candidates. Many of these have IPO'd in the last few years and still have a growth story ahead of them. Know your time frame and risk tolerance. Know your earnings dates! I go through these quickly so grab a pencil and paper and jot down the names that look interesting to you and then make the trade your own. Good Luck!
BUY PENN around the $70-75 range for a move up to $105!Penn National Gaming, Inc. is an American operator of casinos and racetracks, based in Wyomissing, Pennsylvania.
It operates 44 facilities in the United States and Canada, many of them under the Hollywood Casino brand. The company also controls a 36% stake in Barstool Sports.
With the US consumers sitting on over $5.4 trillion of additional savings as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic we believe that Penn National Gaming will benefit from the large consumer spending spree that we expect to sweep the US in the second half of 2021. In addition to that, people who like to bet on various sporting or racing events were severely limited in terms of betting options throughout the last 12-16 months. With things slowly but surely going back to normal despite the new highly contagious Delta variant, we believe that Penn National Gaming is uniquely positioned and will likely see strong revenue and earnings numbers in Q3 and Q4. Last but not least, let's not forget that Barstool Sports is basically a digital content producing company focused exclusively on sports. Thus, with the return of the NFL pre-season starting in August and the actual season in September, Barstool will be a strong driving force for Penn National Gaming's stock moving forward. Lastly, we should also point out that Barstool Sports launched the Barstool Sportsbook back in September, 2020 which is basically a betting app, and handled over $11 million in wagers during its first week of operations!
It definitely seems that the stars are aligning almost perfectly for PENN and as a result of that we believe that the stock will be trading above the $100 mark by mid-September latest.
From a technical standpoint the chart also shows the presence of a strong bullish interest around the $70 level. All major daily indicators including the Stochastics, RSI, MACD and Bollinger Bands are also pointing to a strong reversal in play.
Our targets for the 8-10 weeks will be $105 and $120 respectively.
Good luck guys and remember to always do your own research as well!
NAS100 Hourly Needs More Commitments From BullsFXCM's NAS100 is in the bullish area on the daily chart on the left. The hourly EMAs and stochastic are in bullish mode but each is showing a convergence/loss of momentum. If the EMAs are able to switch to diverging, developing angle, and separation, it may indicate that the short-term traders are starting to align with the daily. A movement of stochastic to 80 level and maintenance of that level (blue arrow) increases the chance of a successful trade. We note the sensitivity of NAS100 to yields, so these will also play a role in determining trade outcomes. Trend following indicators may be useful in this case as a potential exit tool. Stop under hourly support in conjunction with risk management techniques.
Textainer Group (TGH) is pending breakout of bullish flag pending breakout, wait for 4H close above this channel.
US Stock In Play: $SUP (Superior Industries International Inc)$SUP share price surged by +34.94% parabolically in a short span of 4 trading days, breaking out of its mid-term trend channel that was established since December 2020. The latest closing price of $9.25 is a new 52 weeks high closing for $SUP.
With implied volatility still remaining almost 25% away from its March peak of $0.60/day ATR-14 range, the highlighted Bearish Shooting Star reversal signal along with diminishing trading volume over its consecutive up-days may imply an imminent heavy profit session within the week. Further upside for $SUP requires immediate trading sessions to recapture this week’s high of $9.65 to negate the highlighted bearish signs.
$SUP designs, manufactures, and sells aluminum wheels to the original equipment manufacturers and aftermarket distributors in North America and Europe. The company supplies aluminum wheels to the automobile and light truck manufacturers. It offers its products under the ATS, RIAL, ALUTEC, and ANZIO brand names.
US Stock In Play: $TEN (Tenneco Inc)$TEN share price surged by a further +14.96% since our last update this week. This totals up a gain of +42.34% in a short 9 days trading session. With $TEN continuing to outperform its sectorial competitors with increasing buying demand, trading at a new 52 weeks high on both share price and implied volatility, further upside will be imminent to test its 2019 resistance at $25 range.
$TEN is currently trading at its 52 weeks high, at a market capitalization exceeding $1 Billion USD for the first time since 2019.
$TEN designs, manufactures, and sells clean air, powertrain, and ride performance products and systems for light vehicle, commercial truck, off-highway, industrial, and aftermarket customers worldwide.
FSLY growth name bottomed, breakout coming?Growth names are hard to predict right now but SNOW did start a nice reversal lately. Could others start to follow? Looking at June calls from 45-50 rang to try to catch this move. Some volume above this demand shelf could send it into this gap. Over 48 and it could explode. Being in now will allow some rolls to higher longer dated calls to catch that move with less risk.
Stock To WatchThe Market keeps grinding sideways with the longer term uptrend still intact, many growth names remain choppy. These names have shown good relative strength and accumulation volume and most are in the growth sector. This may give good risk/reward entries on some of the best names. Some of these charts still need to confirm their price action. This video is my watchlist. Most of these names are at or near all time highs or multi year highs. There are 28 total stocks on this list. I add an additional 5 stocks that are on my potential short squeeze watch list. Many of these have IPO'd in the last few years and still have a growth story ahead of them. Know your time frame and risk tolerance. Know your earnings dates! I go through these quickly so grab a pencil and paper and jot down the names that look interesting to you and then make the trade your own. Good Luck!
First ever 4g/5g network from sat to cellphone & Lassonde curve.First ever global 4g/5g cellular phone network beeing built by $ASTS seems to follow similar market mechanisms and psychologies as that of junior mining operations: The Lassonde curve, with it’s two waves of share price increase.
Only competitor so far (possible duopoly) is Lockheed Martin and Omnispace cooperstion.
Technology is proven with Bluewalker 1 satellite. Huge TAM, small market cap. Founder shares in lockup for 12 months.
There was an manipulation down starting April 6, which is in steep reversal presenting an excellent entry opportunity. Well timed public offering in first wave means first phase fully financed.
$WKHS EV Vehicles and Drones Workhorse Group Inc., a technology company, designs, manufactures, builds, and sells battery-electric vehicles and aircraft in the United States. The company also develops cloud-based and real-time telematics performance monitoring systems that enable fleet operators to optimize energy and route efficiency. It offers electric and range-extended medium-duty delivery trucks under the Workhorse brand; and HorseFly Unmanned Aerial System, a custom-designed purpose-built all-electric drone system. The company was formerly known as AMP Holding Inc. and changed its name to Workhorse Group Inc. in April 2015. Workhorse Group Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Loveland, Ohio.
$RCON PT 20-25 and higherRecon Technology, Ltd. provides hardware, software, and on-site services to companies in the petroleum mining and extraction industry in the People's Republic of China. The company offers equipment, tools, and other hardware related to oilfield production and management, and transportation; and develops and sells industrial automation control and information solutions. It also provides equipment for oil and gas production and transportation, including heating furnaces and burner, as well as enhancing techniques comprising packers of fracturing; production packers; sand prevention in oil and water wells; water locating and plugging techniques; fissure shaper; fracture acidizing technique; and electronic broken-down service to resolve block-up and freezing problems. In addition, the company offers automation systems and services, including pumping unit controller that monitors the pumping units and collects data; RTU to monitor natural gas wells and collect gas well pressure data; wireless dynamometers and wireless pressure gauges; electric multi-way valves for oilfield metering station flow control; and natural gas flow computer systems. Further, it provides Recon SCADA oilfield monitor and data acquisition system for supervision and data collection; EPC service of pipeline SCADA system for pipeline monitoring and data acquisition; EPC service of oil and gas wells SCADA system for monitoring and data acquisition of oil wells and natural gas wells; EPC service of oilfield video surveillance and control system to control the oil and gas wellhead and measurement station areas; and technique service for digital oilfield transformation. Additionally, the company offers oilfield waste water treatment solutions and related chemicals; and oily sludge disposal solutions. Recon Technology, Ltd. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Stocks To Watch (Relative Strength Edition)The Market is pulling back and might be trying to put in a bottom, this week I expect the market to by choppy. This is the Relative Strength Edition of Stocks to Watch. This may give good risk/reward entries on some of the best names. Some of these charts still need to confirm their price action. This video is my watchlist. Most of these names are at or near all time highs or multi year highs. There are 29 total stocks on this list. I add an additional 4 stocks that are on my potential short squeeze watch list. Many of these have IPO'd in the last few years and still have a growth story ahead of them. Know your time frame and risk tolerance. Know your earnings dates! I go through these quickly so grab a pencil and paper and jot down the names that look interesting to you and then make the trade your own. Good Luck!
XL: Real Revenues, Real Product, My Favorite EV SPAC PlayXL is a maker of hybrid and fully electric engines for trucks and cargo vans. The company sold over 4,000 units in 2020 and are projecting 9,200 this year. They do not however only sell hybrid/electric engines, they also recently got into the charging market. They announced a partnership with UBS arena (NY Islanders stadium) to deploy 1,000 charging stations in the parking ramp. This is a first of it's kind deal in the industry, and I believe this is just the beginning for XL in terms of partnerships with large event venues.
Anything tied with EVs and SPACs has been absolute mania recently. The pullback across the board though has given great buying opportunities into well run, real revenue producing companies however. And I strongly believe XL is one of them.
Technically looking at it as well, it broke it's $18 support level when the entire market tanked late February. It now is showing signs of a reversal coming of a Tom Demark niner as well as momentum picking up after the company appearing on Mad Money. I believe the stock will quickly get back to it's $18 support level, and eventually make a push back to the $26-28 range.
I am using that $26-28 range as a 6-month price target.
Palantir (PLTR): In-depth Fundamental and Technical AnalysisPalantir is a mysterious company that helps governments and corporations integrate their data, decisions, and operations into one platform. They use big data and machine learning technology to offer solutions in both the public and private sector. While it has never been confirmed by the firm itself, it is said that Palantir played a significant role in catching Osama Bin Laden.
In this post, I'll be going over Palantir's fundamentals, financials, and technicals, in order to assess whether this company is a good buy.
This is not investment advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. I am not responsible for the profits or loss generated from your investments. Trade and invest at your own risk.
Background
- Palantir’s founder is none other than Peter Thiel.
- During his Paypal days, the company faced a crisis due to a scam led by the Russian mob.
- Because of this, Paypal started nurturing groups of experts who could track and predict scam transactions.
- They developed a software that analyzes data patterns, which allowed them to identify and prevent these schemes.
- Peter Thiel thought that this software could potentially be used for many other things.
Products: Gotham and Foundry
- The CIA, they had collected a tremendous amount of data since 911, but weren't really sure of how they could utilize it to catch terrorists.
- So the CIA became Palantir’s first client, and Palantir received an investment from In-Q-Tel, which is the venture arm of the CIA.
- With the CIA’s support, they develop a software called Gotham, which allows Palantir to analyze huge data sets in real time, and visually demonstrate the result of the analysis through connective relations and patterns.
- Gotham became recognized as the best analysis tool that the government has seen, and later became used by the CDC, NSA, FBI, the Pentagon, and the Marine Corps.
- This software is used to track suspicious activities, the flow of potentially illegal funds, track missing children, or the spreading course of a disease.
- With this experience and technology, they work with JP Morgan to develop a new software called Foundry.
- Foundry is a solution for private firms that analyzes data to prevent financial fraud or illegal transactions.
Financials Analysis
- If we look at the quarterly income statement, the gross profit has dropped significantly in Q3 2020 from the 70% range to 50% range.
- This is due to the compensation provided to the company’s employees through company shares.
- Then we can also see that R&D expenses have increased significantly in the same quarter as well, and this is also due to the stock based compensation they’re giving out.
- Regardless of this outlier, Palantir is a company that invests a lot on research and development. They are spending 30% of their revenue on R&D every quarter.
- And as you can also see, Palantir is still technically not a profitable company, as their operating income is in the red.
- Let’s take a quick look at their Q4 2020 results. Last quarter, they did $322m in revenue, which is a 40% increase compared to the same quarter last year.
- In 2020 total, they did a little over a billion in revenue, which is a 47% increase compared to the revenue in 2019.
- Looking at the average revenue from Palantir’s top 20 customers, the revenue increased 34% compared to last year, marking $33.2m.
- The average revenue per customer also increased by 41%, marking $7.9m per customer on average.
- This could be interpreted as a sign that Palantir’s clients are happy with the service they get.
- In 2020, the revenue they generate from governments increased a whopping 77%, marking $610m.
- In 2019, the commercial revenue covered 53% of the entire revenue, but in 2020, the government revenue outweighed the commercial revenue in terms of proportion, as it covered a little over 60% of the entire revenue.
- The commercial revenue, on the other hand, wasn’t as impressive as the government revenue, as it only increased 22% compared to last year.
- Using the PSG ratio, I calculated the 2023 estimate for Palantir's stock price to be anywhere between $36.31 to $48.38.
Technical Analysis
- We can count Elliott Waves on Palantir's 4 Hour logarithmic chart
- We can see that the corrective abc waves have completed its formation, and that this entire chart is part of a bigger impulse wave.
- What's important to note is that the price has retraced over 61.8% from all time high levels.
- The price has managed to stay above the 0.618 fibonacci retracement support level.
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trading near oversold regions
- The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has formed a golden cross, and has started to form bullish histograms
Conclusion
Palantir is a company that is in an increasingly growing industry, but is reliant on government contracts for the time being. While this means that they are a monopoly in some way, they have also set their strategy to target commercial clients in the coming years as well. Their cutting edge technology has been approved both by government and commercial clients, and justify the growth potential of the company. Using simple assumptions to apply the PSG ratio in calculating the fair value of the company, we can estimate the stock to reach between $36.31 and $48.38. Given that the stock is currently at $24.19, this is a 41-100% upside. Technical analysis also aligns with the bull case of the valuation, indicating that the stock has recently been oversold, and that an entry around $23 would be reasonable.
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What Analysts Got Wrong about the Recent Volatility.Since I'm not a professional analyst, I've sunk many hours of research in the past week to understand the recent move in the market on a deeper level. Here are my findings. I hope you find this informative.
I've been hearing different analysts' opinions about the recent move in the stock market. I heard the money is moving from tech stocks to banks, or from growth stocks to value stocks. I'm here to say that neither is true. NASDAQ:GOOG is a tech stock and it's been rising. NASDAQ:COST is a value stock and it's been falling. Observe different stocks and you'll find numerous examples. The recent move is rather about companies in debt vs companies with free cash flow . It turns out that when interest rates are raised, it can be predicted with certainty that more money is going to flow into servicing existing debt rather than into productivity. Watch this talk with Brent Johnson to understand this concept, minute 50 to 60. Banks, who recently had their debts quantitatively eased, have more room to buy corporate bonds from companies like GM and Ford. This debt is used to service older debt. The big money, which understands this debt-based economy well, knows precisely where value is going when interest rates rise. Big money used their tried-and-tested calculations and decided to move their investments from free-cash-flow companies, to debt-generating companies. That's what's been happening, and that's the reasoning behind it.
However, there is a point the smart money is missing and they keep missing it and never learn. There is much more value to reap from technology and innovation than there is in loan interests. This value of tech is not priced into their tried-and-tested calculations. It's probably too uncertain for them. But realize that when companies like Amazon, Apple, Google, Facebook, and Tesla create value through technology, they are carrying the rest of the useless debt-generating economy on their backs and creating prosperity for the entire nation and for the world. Real value is in productivity. The United States has moved slowly after WW2 from an industrial exporter to a liquidity and debt exporter of sorts, which also reflected on the US's internal economy. And that weakened the industrial sector over the decades and bubbled the financial sector to an overwhelming extent that it's sucking more and more money from productive businesses and pouring it into existing debts with the purpose of buying more time. The retail investor should learn and understand this in order to position themselves with high conviction on the side of technology and simply hold stocks like Tesla for a decade. You are already benefiting the economy by saving money aside and putting it in the right place and of course the reward is high.
Let me know your thoughts. I probably made mistakes and left some statements in need of more elaboration.