GS
Bat Still Valid - Can it hold? Despite Yesterday's rally in the stock markets, $BAC's Bat pattern wasn't violated as the price remained inside the PRZ,
The fact that the price climbed above the Fast SMA line and created a minor uptrend line is a bullish signal but as long as the price remains below the broken major trend line and below X (18.5$) the bearish scenario is still valid.
Assuming that we will see $BAC testing 18$ again, the R/R for the bearish setup is about 2.
More conservative traders should probably wait for the price to close below the Fast SMA line.. at least.
Tomer, The MarketZone
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EARNINGS PLAYS I WILL BITE ON -- NFLX, GOOG & GS I have a love-hate relationship with earnings plays. When they work out, I'm happier than a clam; when they don't, I swear off them, use expletives to describe them, and say that they're a total *?! waste of time.
That being said, there are some I just can't pass up, usually because the premium is just too good. In the next couple of weeks, these will be NFLX, GOOG, and GS, so I am keeping a little bit of powder dry to do those.
Tips:
1. Look to put on a short strangle or iron condor prior to the close of the New York session before which the earnings announcement will occur. As a general rule, I play these nondirectionally, assuming no directional bias for the underlying and generally set up the sides at or around the 1 standard deviation line for both the call and put side.
2. Use expiries that are either the weekly options expiry immediately after the announcement or, if that provides too short a time frame in which to potentially manage the trade post-announcement, the Friday expiration thereafter. I generally prefer the weekly expiries for these setups, since they sometimes give you strikes in .50 increments, which allow you a little more precision with your strikes.
3. For both the short strangle and iron condor setups, I look to take the entire setup off at 50% max profit as volatility contracts post-announcement.
4. In the event of a test of a side of the setup, look to roll that tested side out to a later expiry for at least a credit equal to the cost of putting the trade on (fees/commissions) two to three days prior to expiry and close out the untested side or allow it to expire worthless.
Additionally, attempt to improve the strike prices for the rolled out side if possible.
Lastly, after rolling out the tested side, match it with an oppositional trade in the same expiration as the rolled out side (for example, if the put side is tested, roll it out to a later duration and set up a call side for that same expiry, ordinarily at or around the 1 standard deviation line for that expiry). My general rule is to roll out to the expiry that is of the shortest days until expiration that provides me with an opportunity to both roll for no additional cost in fees and commissions and that allows me to improve my strike price. If a particular expiry doesn't afford you that opportunity, try a later expiry for the roll.
I'll post examples of setups in these and any other "too good to pass up" high volatility, premium selling earnings plays as we get closer to the announcements .... .
DOW JONES OVERVIEW: GOLDMAN TRADES FLATGoldman Sachs trades laterally on both long term and short term basis.
On long term basis price has recently failed uptrend borders, marked by upper 1st standard deviations from 10 and 5-year means - thus entering lateral territory within the 1st standard deviations.
On short term basis price has failed to enter a downtrend on 1-year basis by holding within 1st standard deviation from 1-year mean. GS however is still on risk of fall on quarterly basis (price trading below 1st standard deviation from quarterly mean)
Thus if GS holds above 180 - which is the lower 1st standard deviation from 1-year mean, it is likely to hold its new lateral range (180-201) with the upper border marked by the upper 1st standard deviation from 10-year mean
GS - Open Interest EvaluationIf Price Closes within the range, The Pain could be closer to $100M, in Options Premium. If it breaks Lower limit, there will be a quick rally, because of option defenders.
Similar to the linked post.
This particular setup I look for is hard to find. So far I do not have a scan. Would be awesome if one exists.
GL folks
Weekly bearish engulfing, trend line breakdown - $GS is a buy?I saw some analysts saying the $GS is cheap before earnings.
Last week we saw a weekly bearish engulfing candle (Outside bar).
This week we see trend line breakdown and a close below the 180$ resistance zone.
Even if $GS will bounce from a good report, can you really call it a "Buy"?
$FB Heads $100Not only numbers is attractive but also the chart. When both agree on company's future outlook, hard to resist to stay sideline and wait correction to happen in order to enter your long waited trade. In most cases, we are right about FB and so far all trades were profitable by simply using a few signals. Very strong level to watch now is $78.56 area where some technicians may find interesting. When there is no known resistance ahead of you, but to use FIB projection..though it may give you some possible price rest, also may add up what analyst say about the company and what target price they may have on it. This combination will give you either exit levels or reload levels. We see $100 coming next 16 months if not sooner.