☄ Natural Gas Futures: This Is Ground Control To Major TomThis publication was partially created by ChatGPT AI, under request to Highlight Ten Factors That Could Drive Natural Gas Prices Below Zero in 2023.
Good or bad, y'all be the judge. But here's what ChatGPT said...
As an AI, I cannot guarantee the accuracy of such statements, but based on common knowledge, the following factors may be the reasons why natural gas prices drop below zero in 2023:
1. Growth in the use of alternative energy sources such as solar and wind energy.
2. Increasing US shale gas production, which will lead to an increase in global supply.
3. Reduced demand for natural gas due to switching to other types of fuel.
4. Increasing natural gas production in highly competitive countries such as Russia and Qatar.
5. The weakening of economic activity in various countries of the world, including China, the US and Europe.
6. Reducing inflation in various countries, which reduces the cost of natural gas.
7. A record increase in natural gas inventories caused by a reduction in demand and an increase in production.
8. Disputes between countries-suppliers and consumers of natural gas, which may lead to a decrease in exports and imports.
9. Increasing competition in the natural gas market from other producers such as Iran and Iraq.
10. Development of new technologies that make it possible to obtain energy from other sources without the use of natural gas.
Technical picture in Natural Gas Futures indicates the biggest YTD decline over the all history of Natural Gas Futures trading since early 1990x.
The main chart is adjusted for futures change All History Chart.
Gsci
GS Commodity Index ChartLooking at the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index and how the prices went up dramatically from the Covid lockdown, i would say that there is still room for a final rally, before a major correction in 2024.
The chart is self-explanatory.
Looking forward to read your opinion about this.
Industrial metals will be bullish in 2021 and beyondBullish factors: Chinese demand + lagging CAPEX, EVs, etc.
This is the biggest triangle I have ever seen. 13-year-long!
Commodities are about to break out!The commodities/stocks ratio is now at the end of its bullish downward wedge pattern formation and about to breakout in the next year or so. This will be highly inflationary and will lead to the next commodities bull market. You'll want to be in commodities, rather than stocks during this period.
The forecast. DXY1. DXY is in downward correction, and should make another 6%-8% down to the levels 90 by June 2020 (or 92 by September 2020, the faster the decline, the deeper the correction). The decline should form 5-waves. This is a technical requirement for 4th wave correction of the previous USD rise taken place between 2014-2017. The price is in divergence with RSI for a long time already, so the correction if overdue. Rising to 99.66 before correcting to 92 – invalidates the idea.
2. The correction not expected to penetrate the upward trend line, i.e. 90-92 is the target. Then the final 5th wave of USD up-trend will start, to last through 2022-23 and eventual increase USD value on 20-25%. US if the only developed country with positive real interest rate what cause the rise of USD. But by 2023 problems in US (falling stock market, falling GDP, rising internal and external obligations) will result in reverse and following USD collapse. Invalidation level - 84.50
3. Stock market will complete 3rd wave of the very last 5th by summer 2020, possibly at $3,400-$3,500 level. Then correction will ignite on US election uncertainty. After election a final 5th of 5th will start, to make a double-top, false breakout in 2021 (double-top was in 2000 and 2007)
4. Commodities are in uptrend already. GSCI will rise ~50%, while oil will make ~80% up. Most likely pure speculation will cause the trend in commodities as no much investment alternatives exist – stocks and bonds are too expensive. The uptrend in commodities will outlive stock market trend what is typical at the end of economic cycle. Invalidation levels: GSCI – 392, Brent Oil – $57
5. Rise in commodities will cause inflation, what eventually will force FED to raise the rates. Rising rates will kill the stock market in 2021, which only supported by buybacks and free money. Apparently does not make sense to print money and raise rates the same time, so free money supply should not be expected to last indefinitely.
6. Gold is rising (even after wild Friday drop I do not expect it to go significantly lower) with target ~$1,580 to complete 5th wave. This upward move is in harmony with USD correction. Should complete by April 2020. Invalidation level $1,360
7. Then a 5-wave correction down to ~$1,050 level will start to complete large-scale correction started in 2011. This one will be in sync with USD rise.