Take Two (TTWO) & ROCKSTARTakeTwo Intractive's costs are rising as fast as revenues, and the Zynga acquisition has yet to prove itself. Of course, GTA 6 is an excellent argument, but even this is not without risk; after all, it is not guaranteed that every new GTA is of the highest quality. Overall, it seems that an investment in the company is currently a pure bet on the massive success of GTA 6. But if that's the investment thesis, why invest now?
TakeTwo has an excellent reputation in the industry and trades with a premium valuation compared to the competition. But several points do not look entirely positive. Costs are rising as fast as revenues, and the Zynga acquisition has yet to prove itself. At the same time, shareholders are slowly but steadily burdened by stock dilution and stock-based compensation. Plus, the CEO sold 21% of his shares in April. Yes, eventually, GTA 6 will be released, but if that's the main argument for the investment, you might as well wait another six months and possibly get in at a cheaper price.
The last quarter was not very successful for the company. Revenue was $1.4B but missed expectations by $140M. On a GAAP basis, there was a significant loss per share of -$1.54. They also lowered FY 2023 revenue guidance from $5.8B to $5.4B. The chart below shows the evolution of some metrics over the last five years. Here we see that revenues are increasing strongly, but costs are increasing almost at the same rate, so real profits are not growing.
The company is currently valued at an enterprise value of $19B. The market cap is $16.9B, and the total debt is $3.7B. The P/S ratio is 4.4, and the forward P/E ratio is approx. 25. The share is thus more cheaply valued than the last few years' averages
this year we going to see GTA6 first trailer and probably release data announcement, plus a next gen update for Red dead redemption2
TTWO under 99$ is a buy zone , I managed to buy some shares at 94$ and will buy more if back to 90-80$ zone again
GTA
GOLD UPDATE IMPRTANCE AREA TO LOOKOUTIn the last Gold Update, we plotted a critical resistance zone, and gold fell from there. Gold is currently taking support near a parallel channel zone. Can gold reverse from here?
Key Zones:
Support
2306 - 2304
2296-2288
2276-2272
COG <===> 2315
Resistance
2320-2324
2332- 2338
GTA token continues to grow towards its goalsFrom my first idea for this token, it made 25%, coped well with the fall of Bitcoin and continues its movement. At the moment I have approached resistance, I think it will easily break through the news about the listing of the coin on a new exchange. (I have some guesses)
Soon I expect news from the developers and explosive growth towards my first goal and new ATH.
Good luck to all.
GTA Token - in my opinion a revolutionary projectGood afternoon. I wanted to share with you my thoughts about GTA Token on the Arbitrum network. In my opinion, a very promising coin, only 10 million tokens. At the moment, one million is locked, if you are interested in tokenomics and information about the project, see the official website.
The creators plan to launch a gaming platform with tournaments and therefore pay out rewards in GTA tokens, this is a new milestone in the gaming industry.
The coin was recently listed on the Mexc exchange, they cooperate with the famous market maker GotBit and now, after the correction, it is breaking through the trend, in the near future, I think, it will easily reach 100%. The maximum, I believe, will be much higher when the hype begins, and a token like GTA will develop rapidly. At the moment, the Twitter account and telegram channels are actively developing, and sweepstakes are held regularly.
PS: I advise you to consider it, the project is only at the very beginning of its bright path, and now is the perfect time and a great price to buy yourself a GTA.
Pros:
1) Promising, interesting idea
2) 10 million tokens, of which only 1.17 are in circulation
3) Famous Market Maker GotBit
4) Active community
5) Actively growing social networks
6) RoadMap is executed
7-25) a good entry point, promotions and rewards on social networks, a popular topic that will quickly gain hype.
Minuses:
1) The project is fresh, the guys are trying, but there are always risks.
GTA VI Effect?Take Two Interactive, while on the downward sloping trend has formed a cup & handle pattern and successfully managed to break out of the range. The arrival of next Grand Theft Auto series is likely to push the stock up as it is likely to be one of the best selling titles in the gaming industry.
The stock has many supporting reasons to drive its price higher as we may see the continuation of GTA Online (for both V & VI) which has been a massive success amongst the community and also for Rockstar as it has helped generate regular income from its business model. Other than being the best GTA ever, it will incorporate features from other successful titles such as Red Dead Redemption 2, which arguably had better graphics than GTA V & all other games from the parent company in the past. We may also see Rockstar borrowing elements from RDR 2 like character physics & animals such as horses which have never been present in GTA before. This will be biggest & best release ever from the GTA series unlike Apple claiming their Iphone to be which is merely different from its previous iterations.
Moreover, the stock is down from its all time high and thus we can expect to see it breaking its previous highs with the next GTA on its cards. The stock looks good for a long term holding as Rockstar has high estimates from its upcoming titles in 2024-25 and none other than next GTA can achieve this level of sales. Rockstar has other upcoming titles too in the pipeline that may contribute to their success in the future.
Long term investments in Take-TwoWith the help of the white trend lines we see how the price had a break out of a triangle formation down to the range of 160$.
I would definitely wait for the shares go further down to levels of 150.69 (what a nice number).
IF we get a quick move upside with a strong candle there are better chances of an turnaround.
Another interesting support I would watch out is the 136$ where we had 2x a strong resistance in the past.
Uuii UbisoftBuying points:
-trend line from July,15
-strong support at 51.14€
-MACD: MA lines extremely under average
-RSI: oversold
Selling points:
-all SMAs above the price
-MACD shows negative momentum
Fundamentals
-selling pressure bc of bad earnings of the gaming industry (take-two)
-seasonal summer impact -> people are more outside, fewer sales
-guidance of next earnings: meh
Conclusion
Technically the stock has a great potential to bounce back to a certain level which I think is 59-60€. So, with a tight stop loss, we are looking for a 17% return.
My strategy, in this case, is to sell the stock when it hits SMAs like 50 or 100 (main goal 100).
You could argue that the share has the chance to get to the upper downtrend line but the fundamentals do not support this theory, not in the short-mid term.
Short opportunities could arrive after we go under the trend and support line (full daily closed candle). This would become approximately 20% down to the next support line of 40€.
As all ways, I try my best to calculate the best risk/reward ratio. If you like my analysis you can follow for more quality content.