GTBIF - Green Thumb Industries | Pot Stocks Cycle Correction With the recent pump and dump on the Safe Banking rally, it has become visible that most of the pot stocks sector is in a corrective state, setting up for a cycle correction. GTBIF appears to be in a triangle and will look to correct this triangle in the coming weeks/months.
For the most part, I would be alerting myself in the "loading zone" with a potential timeline of mid-late summer.
GTBIF
Overlaying stock valuation levels vs picture trading #gtbifI used stare at charts and colored bars and tried to find shapes to figure out the next move. Guess what, I missed out on a lot of easy opportunities to hold and ran scared out of good stocks because I didnt understand growth valuation.
Stocks will do things that dont make sense on the charts. Stocks are businesses.
We really need to understand the companies behind the charts. Its just lazy and a missed opportunity not to do so.
In this this video, I create some valuation assumptions and overlay them on the charts for insights.
Bear case valuations and bull case valuations.
Hope you enjoy it. Cheers.
Green Thumb Industries Inc - $GTBIF Chart Analysis (Continued)TAKE A HIT OR LET IT SIT?
Like most of the cannabis sector, the last couple days of the first week of May oversold than I expected, while hitting all my price targets, it happened faster than expected.
Last Chart Analysis (March 26th, 2022):
This will change my overall look and move the primary cycle 4th and 5th wave (as presented in new chart)
The MACD quickly corrected what was a peak of divergence and now shows a hard sell continuation.
I would expect to see a 3-4 correction here, any price around $10.60 = $10.32 with a chance of going north towards $13.52 for possible PT via correction peak.
Expect hard selling early Nov (if not a little before then) and to continue to sell until April of next year ('23), making $6.02 - $5.60 a possible floor. I would assume chaos if it goes under $5.60
Are pot stocks actually making money?One of the "themes" I have been watching for 2022 is the possible resurgence of pot stocks. Every year has its theme and "anything can happen."
Over the weekend I watched a short Vice documentary following the current state of legal (and illegal) weed in California. You can watch here:
www.youtube.com
We can chalk this up to "unintended consequences" where the new decriminalized regime lowers penalties for growing black market marijuana while the oppressive tax structure is prohibitive to legal marijuana business. I cannot say if this is a "because California" problem or if this the model that will play out state-by-state. Pot stocks, led by Tilray NASDAQ:TLRY , had a rally in 2021 following the election of Biden and Democratic Congress in the USA. Investors assumed this was bullish for the regulated weed industry but examples of what is playing out in California right now show the potential extraneous factors to running a legal marijuana business in the United States. The wheels of politics turn slowly and it could be a very long time before politicians and business owners get it right.
If we look at the largest company by revenue in the United States, Green Thumb Industries OTC:GTBIF , for the last 5 earnings they have made money but the Weekly chart is dangerously close to a full bearish trend. I'll continue watching these stocks and this sector but I'm not a buyer yet.
MJ- Cannabis stocks in the accumulation zoneACB, APHA, CGC, CRON, GTBIF, TLRY are in my Cannabis watchlist. I am bullish on APHA and GTBIF.
MJ is a more conservative approach to capture the gain with limited downside risk.
Ladder buy within the demand zone. Set the stop loss 10% to 15% below the demand zone for the swing to intermediate setup.
Liberty Health Sciences weathering the sector downtrendComparing the stock performances of familiar US MSO's to the SSO Liberty Health Sciences so far in 2020. LHS still holding a 7% gain with Curaleaf @ 3% even after the recent week of sector selling. Can't say the same for the majority of their peers though.