Guru
EYES ON SNIPER US30 SETUP
With that being said, I am looking at this setup on US30 based on the current price action schematic that I see being printed by the market algorithm in relation to what I have seen in the past.
The market is a cyclical puzzle but once you keep seeing the same pieces, you being to notice recurring patterns on the charts.
Once you begin to notice these recurring patterns, burn them into your memory and react to them mechanically.
Trading is a game of risk management, repetition, and probability.
Lock in on one strategy as you can and chisel it.
You will find success in the markets much faster.
US30 has been my go to pair since I started trading in 2020.
I have poured countless hours into trading this instrument on a day to day basis.
I have used countless strategies working to find one that works best for me.
Make sure you do your due diligence and only take this trade if it aligns with your own analysis of the market.
What I am showing is POTENTIAL setup, with the market, profit is possible but it is NOT guaranteed.
NEVER overleverage your account on any trade ideas that you see from me or from other traders you may follow on this platform.
Happy Trading World!
vgx/usdVGX going To run so says a famous guru. Things are trending down but will watch and see what miracles happen.
jxy ideaperfect gap has been formed right on the 1.618 fib level of this large intuition manipulation( circled in green). this sideways setup has made a way for a sharp setup going down to the 1.618. both sharp and sideways setup are about the same magnitude as-well. use this information when trading jpy pairs the next following weeks. Remember your a trader not a robot, this information is just an idea/ rough estimate of what I believe JXY will do. Thank you for you time !!
How to Trade XRP After the SEC ComplaintA lot is going on with XRP. The SEC charges are serious business, and many exchanges followed up on this quickly thereafter by delisting XRP completely. However, if you know me I am a trader and not an investor. You can earn great money even while trading the crème de la crap.
I want to highlight some fantastic scalp opportunities on XRP that give that warm and fuzzy feeling even to the most conservative traders out there. XRP is not only very low at the moment, it is also extremely volatile.
I suggest safe and low positions amounts, but definitely entering with some longs right now. The panic is definitely over, the bottom has been seen and frequently we see some sort of upwards correction. I suggest to buy and try to get at least 20%, 30% in on your trades. Which is absolutely nothing compared to the volatility is is traded at, at this moment.
What's very fascinating to me is to see the insanity of what small movements on a volatile coin can do. This mini correction from the bottom of XRP already represents a 47% gain.
I have been looking into the XRPUP token recently from Binance. Looking at that same token for this tiny correction is equivalent to a 135% gain even. Personally, I don't plan to actually follow this idea to the T. The core principles I believe are true, and I will keep trying to buy low and sell high - regardless of the circumstances. Or should I say ESPECIALLY during these circumstances? The panic following the SEC complaint can give us great great long opportunities. Overall, I will try to benefit from shorter upwards movements using the XRPUP token, focusing on say 20% at a time. This might seem much but literally only spans across several hours.
I prefer the XRPUP token over trading with leverage as the leveraged tokens cannot liquidate you and therefore give more safety. Even if you are wrong, you can choose to hold and wait until the price bounces back near your entry. With leverage you cannot do this and get liquidated in the process.
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- Trading Guru
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Disclaimer!
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30% Long Opportunity for XRP After Its Taken a Big Hit.XRP has obviously been through a lot over the last year, and the price hasn't been at levels where people would like to see it.
However, with the extreme correlation to other cryptocurrencies we have seen an even more significant drop over the last days, that really isn't justified.
This creates a great positive bias where we can identify a relatively easy 30% opportunity for XRP/USD.
Place a tight stop-loss however (probably somewhere around 22 cents) to make sure you are covered in case BTC drops hard again.
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Ethereum Heading into a New Bear Trend till end of 2020Hi traders, I hope everyone is safe and healthy in these tough time. Here is the outlook for Ethereum for the next few months. Hit follow and like to show your support:
:arrow_forward: :chart_with_upwards_trend: Next level to consider rebuying some back if bullish is at $310-290 and $285-275 bottom of that broadening wedge where the bulls must try reversing it back up above $400 immediately to preserve the rounding bottom and bull trend :chart_with_upwards_trend: .
:chart_with_downwards_trend: Note that if we break that $285-275 support, then we may go in an extended bear market AGAIN unfortunately until end of 2020 after which a new bull market would start Q1 2021 which is a substantial delay again due to the US elections and US economical/pandemic mismanagement/incompetence of Trump's presidency.
If the bear trend confirms, then I do think we find a bottom on ETHUSD and BTCUSD sometime September or October before the US elections and I am currently looking at $220-210 for a rebuy/relong longterm for that bottom after which we'd see ETHUSD recover back up mid October to November 2020 back above $275-285 similar to July-October 2017 action...
:arrow_forward: Overall portfolio management wise, it is best to flip 50% to fiat and 50% ETH longterm and just watch. If we regain $400s+ then we can consider reinvesting the rest. If those 2 years of bear market in Crypto taught us something new, it is effective and proper risk, portfolio and trade management and most importantly banking profit/cash and withdrawing that profit to the bank account and enjoy it. Do not take any long-term outlook for granted and always take profit, else we'd suffer continuous losses over the years at the mercy of the high frequency algos and CME institutional entities.
Stay safe!
The Secrets to Forex & Why You Were Bullied at Trader HighSchoolThis is the second half of the deliverable on fundamentals. It covers content you don't normally learn about in the retail trading loserverse, stuff that is often paywalled behind shill "courses" or dismissed as unnecessary by wealth gurus. I'm here to short those paywalls with my appropriately priced FREE knowledge. Take everything in stride, this business wasn't meant to be mastered or understood overnight. You don't think they give the Fisher accounts of the world out to any tryhard with a computer and a chart?
Conversely. Don't worry, too much knowledge is the best problem you can have.
Part 1: Modern Chartfare
When you started trading, you were probably 360 no-scoping your trades. You probably had a few win-streaks, and then a demoralizing losing streak. You felt your win/loss ratio falling and you sought out new strategies, new weapons. So you turned to the internet for ideas, like you would for anything. The omnipresence of advertising and social media caught your attention first. You turned to a metric shitload of wealth gurus. Instagram, telegram, pictogram, etc. Sure, the bros pitching this stuff look like older versions of the kids that bullied you in school, but now they're here to make you money, right?
Nice try nitwit. Now you're making a new kind of losing investment. This is an important piece of "risk management," and I wasn't sure where to fit it in. But those educators, ARE your competitors. Your investment isn't a potential return, its accounts recievable to Guru LLC. When you make enough money trading, you don't need to shill services for income. Remember, forex is a meta marketplace itself, AKA a place to trade services . Most of which are scams or overpriced.
Wealth and warfare go hand in hand. In capitalism, the true battlefield is your bank account, the true center of gravity is your mindspace. The weapons are languages, visuals, platforms, technologies.. And I can tell, trust me, that most of you are easily exploited noncombatants, unarmed and unable to defend yourself or stake a claim to survival in this eternal warzone. Step one to making wealth is protecting whatever amount (no matter how pathetic) of wealth you currently have. Step two is to stop chasing paywalled wealth gurus who draw no income from trading, or any profit that do is embarrassingly mediocre. Greed makes it too easy for the fishermen these days. But wealth that lasts is quiet and deals in many faces. You have to go looking for it, it doesn't try to find you. That's why I'm not selling you on overnight wealth, I'm buying you a lifetime of better risk taking behavior. You need to stop being a wierdo who idolizes mediocre profits.
Part 2: Lunch is NOT for WIMPs
Most of the information in this article is available to find online for free with enough effort, it's just not prioritized by the get-rich shills on major social media platforms. That's the problem. You're still getting bullied out of your lunch money.
I have a counter-offer, I'll buy you lunch instead. At the conclusion of this series in a few months, I will launch a free, private signal service (based on one of my own profitable strategy systems), to build a new type of community, and to help demonstrate the effectiveness of my risk ethos promulgated across this series. I'll get into earning details in a later article, but those master accounts are traded by my hand and produce a minimum positive number of pips per month. Bottom line, it's enough for lunch at Dorsia. But it's not enough to replace a job. Answers to all questions will be provided when the time comes, and performance will be fully transparent. There will be rules for the community and the private signal, rules that may not make sense at first or seem unfamiliar, but everything will be free, always. I don't need your money, the federal reserve has given me plenty. Instead, I will 'trick' you into prioritizing the right things, to protect and develop your networth and lifeworth. From this new kind of community, I will eventually select a few unique individuals to inherit and run my forex trading systems, so I can focus on business creation.
In the meantime, you should be utilizing free websites like FxBlue or Psyquation to manage and study your account risk overtime. You'll be able to see clear differences in the before and after comparison corresponding to your trading experience before finishing this series vs afterwards.
Part 3: Factoring Events
Alright, this will be a bit disjointed but let's start the race to the bottom.
Some investors will pitch their fund or their style as event-driven trading. I simply call event-driven trading by another phrase, 'risk management.' That's all it is.
EVENTS ARE THE ONLY FORM OF VOLATILITY THAT MATTERS.
The priority for your risk management across long-term timeframes is not entirely explained in simple volatility equations. I have briefly mentioned this in prior articles. But the investing boomerisms about volatility are right and wrong. Volatility is the key to risk management, right, but only if you understand the threat origination of volatility itself, which most don't. Which is why they lose. Volatility is the rapid transition of fear into security or security into fear. The identifiable rapid transition EVENTS are driven by market psychology (the players within). And those rapid transition events CAN be predicted by preparing your trades for predicted/scheduled future EVENTS (and sometimes ongoing events). We talked a lot about geopolitics and some economic events in the last article. But there are others.
You don't really need to know a lot about them, you just need to know that they are predictable events, which means meaningful volatility, which means risk management.
You don't need to be an economist or try to out-analyze these events (though that might lead to some edge), because you can safely assume that the forecasts are already priced in. You can assume that the majority of major market players did their own research or got access to better research. Tough to out-edge those guys. There's a reason they own the porn industry. "Thank God I don't have to use my brain too much." No, don't even. I would rather not create anymore dumb rich people, we got enough already and boy are they big liabilities.
Part 4: Losers Wouldn't Know
A forecast isn't a foresight, its a guesstimate. We talked a lot about the inherent delusion built into speculation. Obviously, these guesstimates COULD be wildly wrong. The actuals could be 5 standard deviations away from the expert consensus estimate. Therein lies the potential for major volatility. Forget the digits, I want you to look at the econ calendar as opportunites for entry or exits in your trading system, and ignore the estimate. Or, if you already are exposed to the pair, I want your to prepare your position for these events ("prepare" will be further discussed). Both of these routes can constitute proper risk management in conjunction with key technicals, which is the focus of the next section.
There are a ton of events that don't appear on the econ schedule though. Only the cool kids know about these. We did geopolitics already, the tough unscheduled stuff. But there is more to discuss.
END OF MONTH + END OF QUARTER REBALANCING
It's hard to predict cause commercials and institutions use broad cross-asset reasoning to balance portfolios, but generally the mindset is derived from a need to hedge across the major/minor/cross currencies (g10). The safest bet is to just expect volatility, and therefore prepare your risk management in concert. Dont spend cognitive resources trying to predict direction. Just look at the Biden campaign. Now that's how you conserve cognitive resources.
LONDON FIX
There are multiple fixes, but the London fix is the biggest and most relevant for majors because most of the money and most of the villains have congregated there. It occurs at 4PM City time (London time) and it's basically used as a benchmark for NON-SPOT market operations, like agreements/forwards between companies or branches within companies to convert currency to meet payment responsibilities like payroll, invoices, debts, etc. That was determined to be the "fairest" way, instead of negotiating over spot prices. The exact exchange values are determined with less oversight than you would hope but usually as an average of price range around the 4PM period. It just means that you have another volatility roadbump as a retail trader. For the powerful and wealthy, it might mean other opportunities. We don't always play the same game, even if it seems like it.
The fix is even crazier during those end of month rebalancing events. Consider them gravitationally attracted.
WITCHING HOURS
This is the period when Wall Street performs satanic rituals for profitable insight. You probably won't have to worry too much about this now that we got Maxwell behind bars, and I really should've just covered it more directly in the seasonality article. This hour is just the last hour of trading on the third friday of every month (unless it's a holiday), where some options and some futures expire. The lead up to the hour itself can involve unusual price action from complex arbitrage. There is recent interest in resolving this inefficient period by developing special rollover/settlement options. CME Group (the largest futures group) is working on this, so I wouldn't do too much of a deep dive looking for edge because it might not exist for much longer. At most, you should just remember to increase risk oversight on the third friday of each month, and that a few months (March, June, Sept, Decem) have larger expiry loads, so be extra careful.
That's the speedrun.
Part 5: Steak Salesmen
Trump tweets. Now in the steak salesman era of American politics, Presidents also like to hype or influence economic information, and significant portions of the market will react. You gotta follow the man in the OO if you want the complete global macro coverage.
We have less than a year left of insured Trump tweets, and a speculative 4 more years of Trump tweets. I do consider a high probabilty of a Trump reelection, 70%+. Twitter market influence is here to stay either way, though it would be more subdued without Glormphf. This ties into a reliable source of fundamental certainty, which is the dependency of timezones and market newsflow. That is, big US market newsflow happens during the business day, by and large. Everyone is awake, everyone is at work. This is obvious but useful nevertheless. Lets say there is some kind of unscheduled macro leak, like a major Korean newspaper claims that a CCP trade minister said that TRADE DEAL PHASE 1 might be off the table.. the market will react poorly and all of this will occur overnight for the US and for EU. However, when the sun shines on that side of the world, we will get an update, and usually a correction, that calms markets. You can use that reaction cycle as a tradeable pattern in future instances. This type of pattern happens all the time, a few times a month at least.
Part 6: The Confusion of Traders
COT data. The Contusion of Traders data is the most freely available source of information that approximates open interest and institutional sentiment in forex. You probably know that real volume data is available for most financial assets on major exchanges (like stocks), but due to the derivative and OTC nature of forex, this real information on liquidity, sentiment, and volume is priveledged knowledge held privately by individuals and institutions to generate edge and to fiddle with spreads. COT data is a close but not exact representation of this liquidity and sentiment via commodity futures contracts held by trading funds, institutions of a market-making nature, or brokers. Unfortunately, this data is compiled and released weekly, and not in real-time. So it has a 1 week lag, and more during holidays. However, it is still very useful from a fundamental perspective for long-term traders. OI (open interest) shows DEMAND. You can find this data via google, and there are few dedicated people on a certain factory related forex site that put out excellent weekly COT reviews. Generally speaking, you want to look for strong competing trends between speculators and commercials. You will want to track your risk management to that trend. Quite frankly, you rarely want to trade against a strong COT data-derived trend unless you are making a special type of carry trade. If you want to bet against the trend, you incur the same risk-managment responsibilities of a commercial (deep pocket institutions, money makers), except you remain a pathetic and shallow pocketed retail trader. This is counter-intuitive because your capital is vastly limited both in size and use.
Okay let's circle back to riskon and riskoff and tie them into econ events.
Part 7: Securities Industry Essentials Exam
The stock market is a critical component of fundamentals because it serves as a reliable indicator of riskon vs riskoff. Money considers the share market (like NASDAQ/DOW/SP500/NIKKEI, etc) risky. I find this absolutely clown-tier in the current year, considering Central Banking debt/asset strategies. Digression. It considers other equities like corpo bonds, debentures, warrants, etc, as accessories to share performance, at least when looking at drivers for riskon sentiment. Unfortunately, the stock market runs through exchanges that do not operate on a 24/7 basis, unlike forex. The old world still functions on sleep. Imagine sleeping when you could be making money.
You can alleviate this issue by looking at the futures market, where you can follow different stock markets while live exchange data feeds are stopped. You need to be mindful of which stock market to follow based on time of day. Recall that NA and EU represent most of the influence on sentiment only while live.
Commodities like energies and metals are perhaps even clearer examples of risk sentiment. With the exception of gold and silver, most commodities are riskon, and act as a signal for demand within economies. Since economies are the underlying to markets, markets interpret commodity demand (which generally reflects as higher prices), as a sign that economies are growing. Copper in particular because of its valience application in much of the developed, tech-dependent world.
Part 8: The Pyramid Club
National bonds were discussed in prior articles. Bond PRICE rises (because demand increases) during riskoff periods. Now, this is only true for SAFEHAVEN countries. Well-managed, top-twenty economies. This is because demand for a national bond can drop if investors think the country is at risk of debt restructuring. Though, as prior mentioned in the carry article, this issue is more political than it is economic in nature, and a bailout is always available. It might be easier to think of national bonds as 'loans' citizens can give to governments. Writing a loan for a trustworthy debtor could be an economically benefitial thing, but vice versa for a debtor who is struggling. In general, as a forex trader, just focus on US national bonds. Note that there are varity of national bond types, but the distinction between them is less relevant than the overall yield and price conditions. It only becomes relevant if you have a lot of money to invest, which we all know you don't have.
Now what about yields? Sadly, as bond prices rise, the yield (added interest value) drops. Though in the grand scheme of things... yields are pretty much in net decline these past 10-15 years, which are the only kinds of timeframes they are truly relevant in anyway, except as a sentiment measure with glance value. Obviously, in a riskon environment, more investors, and therefore more money, shift into riskier avenues; so demand drops and bond prices drop. Now, there are other factors that influence the pricing of national bond yields and other country-level assets, namely interest rates set by a central bank, yield curve issues, and other money operations between the central bank and private banks. As mentioned in the article on carry trades, the importance of staying up to date on central banking activity and rationale is paramount in the world of forex. I'm not going to give a 21st Century Central Banking ECON 301 course here; just research the history of Gold Man Sachs' corporate management and you'll be ahead of the game.
Also.
VIX is another simple and popular tool for measuring the riskon vs riskoff environment, though as I have already warned in prior articles, volatility is not synonymous with risk due to its vulnerability to black swans, and risk management based on traditional volatility measures is not sufficient. And keep in mind that VIX has a sleep schedule.
Part 9: Gekkos & Goblins
It's easy to get lost in all the words, statements, claims, projections, predictions you get from experts, twitter, reports, releases, news, and media. But you have to stay laser focused on the flow of cash itself. Adding 'value' or 'growth' and removing 'liabilities' or 'obstacles' are nice terms, but they don't exist in reality. You can't put them in your pocket. You can't buy a house with them. Remember, ultimately it's all about the bucks, the rest is just conversation. Where ever there are billions sloshing around, there lies your market. You just need to watch the money move to understand the risk transitions.
Though, don't follow it too closely, you might see something that was meant to be hidden.
Part 10: Most Successful People were Bullied
Society has an odd way of bullying people into conformity (and therefore mediocrity). But if you weather the mental pressure to conform, you end up outside the predicted plot. A place where no one can reach you. When making money is involved, that's usually a good thing.
The last man standing is usually the risk management specialist, yet the biggest risk is not taking any risk at all. A paradox? You're not trying to avoid all loss, you're trying to be the best at managing loss. You can't be a risk management specialist without RISK being involved somewhere. You have to suffer the bullying before you can step outside of the plot.
"Most men take few risks, and then they all die in the end anyway." The interesting characters in GOT died before the show ended, because they took interesting risks. If they didn't, then HBO wouldn't have made any money. The show was profitable because unexpected events drove interesting storylines, the writers weren't afraid to kill people off, break their paradigms, or run them through intense pain and embarrassment. You are HBO and your trades need to be like Littlefinger, for instance. He spent a lot of time worshipping risk and chaos, but wasn't he the most meticulous character in the show? What about Tyrion? He appeared to keep a low profile for most of the show, but actually took huge risks.
Confused? Here's the sum of these analogies: You will get bullied by the market. But if you can break your mental paradigms, kill off bad strategies, and survive the pain and embarrassment, you'll be the last man standing.
Well, technically I'll be there, wondering what took you so long.
EOS Still Has a Long Way To Recover [Great Upside Potential!]Compared to all the other major caps, EOS has recovered the least. Whereas BTC has almost completely recovered and even reached highs of pre-corona levels EOS still is really low and has more than 90% upside potential.
Obviously you wouldn't want to go in for a single 90% trade here with huge risk. No, we take the mature approach and try get a few good risk reward positions in and take only the profit we can get based on solid TA all the while we trade positions we can afford to lose.
Since EOS is trading in an ascending parallel channel here, we can trade it with a bullish bias. The price is in a linear uptrend, but has just seen a retracement from the middle of the channel. This means we will have a possibility for a very safe and low entry, maximizing our risk reward.
I am suggesting a long position here on EOS. Good luck!
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- Trading Guru
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Disclaimer!
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Recent success stories:
SHORT Cardano on BitMEX [ADAH19][SHORT] [Countering Gurus]Trade: SHORT ADAH19
Leverage: your choice
Sell In: 0.00001137 – 0.00001150
Time Frame: 4H
Targets:
(1) 0.00001072
(2) hold
Stop Loss: Close 4H candle above 0.00001200
--
Cardano ( ADAH19 ) BitMEX trade as promised.
This is intended for advanced traders only.
This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
This is how it shall be, better than the top author gurus.
Thanks a lot for your support.
Litecoin Price Analysis: Long-Term Bearish; Short-Term Iffy BullThe price of Litecoin has been moving in tandem with Bitcoin (just with more volatility) lately, which makes it an especially juicy option for shorts/longs depending on which direction you think Bitcoin is going in (i.e., if you think Bitcoin is going long, you definitely want to long Litecoin; if you think it’s going to drop, you definitely want to short Litecoin).
This is validated by the correlational index provided by SIFRdata.
Rarely does this traded pair move opposite of Bitcoin, although there was a time where it was appreciating against Bitcoin at a fairly rapid rate a few weeks ago as Bitcoin was ascending in price (this was back in July).
But without further ado, let’s get to it.
The white line that you see in the picture above represents the long-term support point for Litecoin.
Below is an even closer view of what it looks like:
However, the RSI is signaling us out on the daily pretty hard.
As you can see with the RSI, there was a sequence of highs that had initially occurred, that signaled we were in the clear with a good investment (solid upward price action).
However, that elongated pattern of progress on the RSI(14) on the daily chart is now no longer.
Yet, this long-term support point that we’re seeing (indicated by the white line), is holding tight thus far.
Let’s check out the volume reading to see how that’s looking.
Volume
As you can see from the photo above, the sell volume has descended a bit over the past few days, but it still vastly outstrips the buy volume that preceded it.
Normally, when there is a decrease in the volume, we can anticipate a price reversal. But this is not the case when we were in a bear market and that decrease is a decrease in sell volume.
There is a chance that there could be a subsequent spike in sell volume, especially if the price of Litecoin falls back down through the the long-term support that its currently sitting at on the daily chart.
Let’s scroll out a bit first though, and get a better idea of why this long-term support is so important for determining the future price of Litecoin.
Long-Term Support Point
As you can see in the photo above, this long-term support is right where the price run for Litecoin really started up at in 2017.
So, without even looking at a Fibonnaci chart, we can tell that the price of Litecoin is at a 100% retracement point on the daily chart.
Above is the visual of the Fibonnaci though, in case you needed it.
Next Likely Support Point
The next likely major support point is probably at $40-ish.
Triangle formation is nearing its apex on this chart.
This can’t be called a descending triangle because it’s not.
It does not fit the necessary qualifications of a descending triangle formation.
To conclude the long-term price analysis for Litecoin, the author is extremely bearish and sees another -20% drop, at the very least.
Short-Term Price Analysis
In the short-term the prospects for Litecoin look slightly more promising.
Divergence between the price and the RSI should be immediately apparent from first sight, but we’ll out line it below in case you weren’t able to identify it manually already.
When the indicator is signaling bullish intent with the price acting in a bearish manner, that is considered positive divergence.
When the indicator is signaling bearish intent with the price acting in a bullish manner, that is considered negative divergence.
Know the difference and learn how to identify each; it saves lives.
Resistance Points
In the picture above, you can see we have the EMA-50 hanging right over the price of Litecoin on H4 currently at roughly $57.
As noted in other analyses, the EMA-50 may perhaps be one of the most ‘powerful’ support/resistance points in all of crypto as far as EMA indicators are concerned, so this is definitely worth noting.
The Ichimoku is dictating the same fate for Litecoin (assuming that it passes the conversion + base lines; those are the two red and blue lines on the chart right above the price).
The bottom of the cloud is hovering at $57. So, $57 is looking like the definitive mark to beat.
Given the bearishness of the daily outlook and the mild bullishness in the signals for the 4H chart, only the most mild of longs would be suggested here (even though it’s not advisable to risk tremendous losses scalping super short-term profits).
Conclusion
If one were to long here (for whatever reason), to try to hustle out an extra 5–8%+, then this is what the safest R/R would probably look like:
If one were to attempt to short on Litecoin (probably the smartest decision), then it would be recommended that one set a S/L right above where the target was from the long position and then letting the price ride out from there.
For this, we will change time frames and scroll back up to the daily.
Truthfully, this is probably one of the more conservative outlooks for Litecoin, all things considered.