Bitcoin Bullish Reversal with IH&S as Segwit Activations LoomUnfortunately, it seems that the Megabull ended prematurely thanks to a bunch of greedy companies and miners attempting to monopolize Bitcoin and sabotage Segwit:
Roger Ver with Bitmain attempt to launch Bitcoin Unlimited through a Hard Fork but fail to get community support due to poor coding of BU, ASICBoost, Antbleed etc.
We finished from BU thought we were done, then Barry Silbert whose building his empire on cryptocurrencies through legal and shady means (owns Digital Currency Group, Genesis Global Trading, a bitcoin OTC trading firm, and Grayscale Investments, took advantage of the Ethereum fork to make ETC from the chain split) and big crypto-dependent firms took it upon themselves to come up with Segwit2x variation through NYA Meeting without inviting Bitcoin Core devs (main Dev of Bitcoin since inception). These big players decided they would develop instead their own quick untested Segwit version through RSK developers (Bitmain invested in them and who knows who) and also Hard Fork a 2MB form as well few months later. The rest of the community was not consulted.
BitcoinABC: Although Bitmain agreed to Segwit2x, somehow Jihan wants as well his own Bitcoin version through a Hard Fork which he would pre-mine for himself before releasing and it would increase the block size to a whopping 8MB.
As you see we have multiple big corporations attempting a hostile takeover of open source cryptos. The worst part is that their Segwit code is poorly coded/buggy and it also contains hard-coded seeds that send network data to some of the corporations (data mining). All these corporations should be held liable in front of a court of law for attempting to destroy or manipulating the $80 Billion cryptocurrency ecosystem in their favor.
Anyways, enough venting from my end and lets just to this simple analysis of the current bear trend in play:
Based on this 235D cycle and the blue bear market fractal from 2013 (post-megabull bearish trend), Bitcoin could attempt to put a bottom earlier than expected at $1950-1850 and start a new megabull cycle immediately if Segwit Bitcoin Core (BIP 148) activation succeeds without a chain split through August 2017. The bullish reversal would complete through the plotted inverted head and shoulder (IH&S) on the chart. As depicted, we would start the new megabull around September 9 and reach the final All Time High at $13,370 - $10,000 at the 235D Cycle top on October 9. This is the best scenario and to be honest the chances of it occurring aren't pretty high due to the uncertainty lying ahead with potential chain splits and hard forks from different groups. Worse case scenario not depicted on this chart would be 1 year of bear market 2014 style
Currently, were looking at a bottom as:
1. Support at $1950-1850 which is 50% Fibonacci retracement and Bitcoin is potentially testing this area as a final bottom.
2. The 1D RSI is oversold currently at 28 and we had some capitulation wick down to $1830 on Stamp and finex.
3. Notice we hit the 3D Bollinger bottom band as well at $2000-1975 roughly. Previous bear trends weren’t shy of dropping $100-200 under the bottom 3D Bollinger band with volatility before violently bouncing up with a short squeeze.
Stoplosses:
1. If we do close a daily under $1800 then the entire trade setup would be VOID.
2. Also consider this entire chart VOID if the Bitcoin chain splits in two or more chains through August 2017. If we do split chains, then expect Bitcoin to crash down to $1240-1140 support eventually.
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