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Market Update - November 3rd 2023 Bitcoin holds onto gains as a golden cross appears: Bitcoin (BTC) consolidated around $35k USD this week after its price action exhibited a “golden cross” on the daily BTC chart. Market observers have suggested that such price action could portend a continued upward trajectory for the leading crypto. Sam Bankman-Fried found guilty on all counts: Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder and former CEO of FTX, was found guilty on all seven counts. He faces up to over 100 years in prison. The sentencing hearing is tentatively set for March 28, 2024. In closing arguments this week, prosecutors argued that SBF built his FTX empire on a “foundation of lies and false promises” describing him squarely as a liar who fabricated a “pyramid of deceit.” The defense sought to convince the jury that SBF had simply made mistakes that culminated in the collapse of his once $32 billion empire. Solana leads altcoin charge as ether lags: Altcoins performed well this week, with Solana (SOL) a notable outperformer, rallying 24%. Research analysts have pointed to SOL’s high throughput and growing developer activity as fundamental catalysts for the rally. Other notable high-performers include Decentraland (MANA) +16%, Uniswap (UNI) +13%, Cardano (ADA) +11%, Polkadot (DOT) +11% and Ripple (XRP) +11%. Ether (ETH) prices did not follow suit gaining around 1.7% this week. Federal Reserve holds rates steady and yields continue to dip: The Federal Reserve held its target interest range between 5.25%-5.5% this week. The Fed did not rule out the possibility of future interest hikes depending on economic data, whereas most analysts have ruled out any additional hikes this year. Treasury yields continued their decline, with the 10-year treasury yield dropping 12 basis points after the Fed meeting. 📊Topic of the Week: Technical Analysis ➡️Read more here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
Market Update - October 27th Bitcoin hits $35k amid more encouraging ETF news: BTC soared from ~$30k USD to ~$35k earlier in the week, before settling around $34k USD by Friday. Spurring the price action, news began circulating on Monday that BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF, with the ticker IBTC, was listed with the DTCC, leading to speculation that the ETF was nearing approval. Bitcoin open interest on CME hits all-time highs: Open interest for bitcoin derivatives on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) hit 100,000 BTC (~$3.4 billion USD). The trend may reflect growing interest in bitcoin from institutional investors as the conversation around a coming spot bitcoin ETF continues to heat up. SEC directed to review Grayscale’s spot bitcoin ETF application: A US federal court issued a mandate directing the SEC to review Grayscale's application for a spot bitcoin ETF. Grayscale submitted a registration statement to the SEC on October 19, stating its intention to list shares of its spot bitcoin ETF on the New York Stock Exchange Arca under the ticker GBTC. Q3 GDP beats estimates, and treasury yields continue to rise: Third-quarter US GDP showed robust growth of 4.9% on an annual basis, surpassing estimates of 4.7%. Treasury yields continued to rise, putting additional pressure on equities. Yields on the 10-year treasury surpassed 5% on Monday, hitting its highest level in over a decade, but has since dipped to the 4.8% range. 🤝Topic of the Week: Basic Trading Order Types ➡️ Read more here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
Market Update - October 20th False ETF news gives bitcoin a boost: Crypto markets were frenzied on Tuesday after Cointelegraph posted an unconfirmed tweet that the SEC had approved a spot bitcoin ETF. Bitcoin prices jumped over $2,000 USD in minutes before the news was deemed false. GBTC discount to NAV continues to tighten: The discount between shares of Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and the net asset value of the fund is at its lowest level in almost two years. After starting the year at a nearly 50% discount, GBTC’s discount has moved to ~13%, reflecting increased expectations that a bitcoin spot ETF will be approved in the near future. Uniswap introduces 0.15$ swap fee: The move was described as an effort to “sustainably fund operations.” UNI is trading about even over the past seven days following the news. The European Central Bank moves closer to a digital euro: The bloc’s central bank announced that it had moved from the investigation phase to the preparation phase of its digital euro project. ECB president Christine Lagarde tweeted that they “envisage a digital euro as a digital form of cash that can be used for all digital payments.” Treasury yields continue upward trajectory, and Powell sees continued strength in the US economy: US treasury yields have continued to put pressure on equities, with the 10-year treasury touching 4.98% for the first time since 2007. Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested that the continued strength of the US economy may warrant further tightening, but didn’t foreshadow an immediate policy shift. 🏖️ Topic of the Week: Liquidity Pools ⏭️ Read more here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
Market Update - October 13 US consumer price index (CPI) remains sticky: CPI data released on Thursday did not show a further cooling in inflation in the US economy, further muddying the Fed’s decision making on the future interest rate path. Federal Reserve unable to reach a firm decision on interest rate hikes: Minutes from the Fed’s last meeting show wavering opinions on interest rate hikes against the backdrop of uncertainty in the US economy. Ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas dampens investor confidence: The price of both bitcoin and ether has been in decline since attacks erupted between Hamas and Israel on Saturday. Bitcoin has dropped below FWB:27K USD and ether has lagged, falling to 0.057 on the ETHBTC pair. Sam Bankman-Fried’s trial continues as Caroline Ellison takes the stand: The former CEO of Alameda Research pleaded guilty to fraud and testified that SBF directed her to create false balance sheets to hide the company’s debt to FTX. India is paving the way for crypto adoption, despite 30% capital gains tax: The Central Board of Direct Taxes collected over $12m in taxes, and a newly released report ranks India as number one for grassroots crypto adoption. 🫱 Read more here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
Market Update - October 6, 2023 Bitcoin and ether have another rollercoaster week: Following a pop early in the week as the US Congress narrowly avoided a government shutdown, bitcoin and ether were up and down, settling around $27.5k USD and $1,600 USD, respectively, by Friday. Sam Bankman-Fried’s saga continues as trial starts: SBF’s criminal trial began this week in New York City. In opening statements, the defense argued that “Sam didn’t defraud anyone,” while the prosecution described SBF’s crypto empire as a “house of cards … built on a lie.” The trial is expected to last up to six weeks. Ether futures ETFs go live for trading: The first ether (ETH) futures-based exchange traded funds (ETFs) were launched on Monday by VanEck, ProShares, and Bitwise Asset Management. The total volume traded on the first day of launch came in just under $2 million USD. Judge rejects SEC’s attempt to appeal Ripple ruling: The SEC faced a setback this week as a federal judge dismissed its bid to appeal the highly publicized Ripple ruling that deemed XRP sold on public exchanges is not a security. XRP rallied over 5% following the news. Hiring slows in September, lowering interest rate hike expectations: Employment data from ADP showed far fewer private sector jobs were added in September than expected, and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index slowed slightly for September. Expectations for another interest rate hike in November now sit around 20%. ➡️ Read more here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
Market Update - September 29 2023 Bipartisan Group in Congress urges spot Bitcoin ETF approval as SEC punts: Bitcoin saw a mid-week bump as a bipartisan group of Congressmembers urged SEC chair Gensler to immediately approve a Bitcoin ETF. The SEC delayed a number of spot ETF application decisions as a US government shutdown looms. By the end of the week, bitcoin was trending higher, sitting above FWB:27K USD. MicroStrategy adds to its bitcoin coffers with purchases totalling ~$150 million: MicroStrategy, one of the largest bitcoin holders, bought 5,445 bitcoins for ~$147.3 million USD, at an average price around $27,053 USD. The purchases were made between August 1 and September 24. The company said it was considering buying even more. Leading NFT brand Pudgy Penguins to sell toys at Walmart: Pudgy Toys collection will be available in 2,000 Walmart stores across America. Each toy comes with a QR code, which once scanned gives the user access to the online virtual Pudgy World. Curve had a solid week as its founder closed out debt positions on Aave: Curve (CRV) rallied this week, trading up 17%, after Curve founder Michael Egorov paid off his entire debt position on the DeFi lending protocol Aave. ➡️ Read more here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
Market Update - September 22, 2023 Bitcoin has an up-and-down week as Mt. Gox delays repayments: Bitcoin (BTC) started the week off rallying from $26.5k USD to $27.4k USD before paring its gains by Friday. Mt. Gox trustees delayed repayment of more than 140,000 BTC and other cryptos by a year, extending the deadline to October 2024. Fed holds rates steady as one more hike expected this year: In line with expectations, the US Federal Reserve held its target benchmark interest rate at 5.25%-5.5%. One more hike is expected by the end of 2023, with interest rate cuts anticipated starting next year. Judge blocks the SEC from immediately reviewing Binance.US software: The SEC faced a setback in its case against Binance.US, as a judge blocked the agency from immediately reviewing the exchange’s software. A follow-up hearing is slated for October 12. Optimism completes third community airdrop and plans private sale: Optimism (OP) airdropped ~19.4 million OP tokens (~$27 million USD) to eligible users. The team also announced a private sale of 116m OP tokens (~$162 million USD) to seven buyers. 🪂 Topic of the Week: Crypto Airdrops ➡️ Read more here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
Market Update - September 15 📨 Franklin Templeton enters spot bitcoin ETF race: The asset manager with over a trillion dollars in assets under custody filed an application with the SEC to launch a spot bitcoin ETF, joining Blackrock, ARK Invest, VanEck and others. Web3 enthusiasts descend on Singapore for Token2049: Some of the largest names in the crypto space spoke at Token2049 this week, in what is set to be the largest Web3 conference this year. At the event, messaging app Telegram and the TON Foundation announced a new self-custodial crypto wallet. Binance.US executives leave amid regulatory scrutiny: It was reported that the CEO of Binance.US and other executives were leaving and that the company’s workforce would be cut by a third. The moves come as Binance, Binance.US, and founder Changpeng Zhao face suits leveled against them by the SEC and CFTC. FTX receives court approval to start liquidating crypto assets: FTX was granted permission from a bankruptcy judge to begin liquidating its crypto to start repaying creditors. The bankrupt exchange can sell up to $200 million USD in assets every week, pending creditor approval. FTX’s major crypto holdings include SOL, BTC, and ETH. Markets muted despite inflation numbers a touch above expectations: CPI was up 3.7% from a year ago (3.6% expected), while core CPI increased 4.3% (4.3% expected). Market expectations changed little as a result, with traders seeing a 97% chance that rates will remain unchanged at next week's September 20 meeting. ➡️ Read More Here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
Market Update - September 8th 2023 Bitcoin edges lower as SEC delays ETF decisions: Following a rush of excitement after Grayscale’s legal win against the SEC last week, bitcoin prices retraced below $26k USD as the SEC delayed its decisions on spot bitcoin ETF applications as expected. Spot ether ETF applications filed: ARK Invest and VanEck filed applications to launch a spot ether ETF with the CBOE. The applications are not expected to be considered until the SEC makes a decision on existing ether futures ETF applications. Visa boosts Solana, expanding USDC settlement to the network: Expanding USDC settlement to the Solana network will improve cross-border payment speeds, Visa said. The news pushed SOL prices higher. Interest rates expected to remain at current levels: The market is expecting the Fed to keep interest rates steady at its next meeting later this month. In traditional markets, equities were pushed lower this week by rising oil prices as Saudi Arabia and Russia continue production cuts. New crypto accounting rules ask for fair-value reporting: New rules are expected to be finalized by the end of 2023, and be implemented by the end of 2024. Microstrategy founder Michael Sayor said the move would reduce barriers for corporations holding crypto in their treasuries. Read more here ⏪
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
Market Update - September 1st 2023 Grayscale ETF ruling boosts BTC: A U.S.Court of Appeals ruled in favor of Grayscale in their lawsuit against the SEC, which challenged the agency’s denial of an application to convert Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) to an ETF. GBTC is currently the largest Bitcoin fund with over $16.3 billion USD in AUM. The ruling led to higher prices for BTC. Powell speech and cooling economic data led to higher market prices: Markets were higher following Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole last Friday, in which no surprises were indicated. Cooling GDP and jobs data further bolstered these gains. PEPE trends down following rug pull rumors: PEPE experienced a sharp drop in price last week as rumors of a rug pull circulated. The anonymous developer who claimed to be in control of the funds now says that the remaining 10 trillion tokens are safe and will remain until a “use or burn arises.” X receives Rhode Island payments license: Twitter Payments LLC, the payment branch of X, was approved by Rhode Island for a license request to store, transfer, and exchange Bitcoin and other digital assets on behalf of its users. This marks another step in Elon Musk’s quest to turn X into the “everything app.” Read More Here ⬅️
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
Market Update Report - August 18 2023 Crypto prices tumble as negative news and liquidations hit market: Bitcoin moved sharply lower this week, dipping well below recent ranges, nearly hitting FWB:25K USD on Thursday before somewhat bouncing back. The downward price action followed a build up of negative news, including a report of large sales of BTC by SpaceX, the bankruptcy of Chinese property giant Evergrande, and a subsequent raft of liquidations in the crypto derivatives market totalling $1 billion USD in 24 hours. EU lists a spot bitcoin ETF, beating US to the punch: A London-based asset manager listed a spot bitcoin ETF on the Amsterdam Euronext stock exchange this week, as US asset managers wait on the SEC for a decision on US-based spot bitcoin ETF applications. Coinbase secures approval to offer crypto futures to US investors: After applying two years ago to the National Futures Association, Coinbase has received approval for a Futures Commission Merchant, which will allow it to offer futures products to US investors. The Sandbox completes $100 million USD token unlock: Other projects including Avalanche (AVAX) and Injective (INJ) also have token unlocks coming later in August. Equities dip as China’s economic woes weigh on markets: Equities dipped along with crypto markets this week, with the economic news coming out of China showing a cloudy outlook for the country as it slips into a deflationary period. 🔗Crypto Topic of the Week: Cross-Chain Interoperability Read more here ⬅️
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
1
Weekly Market Update - March 24 2023What Happened This Week? Bitcoin $BTC and ether $ETH hit 2023 highs this week, as the Fed raised interest rates but signaled a coming pause given continued banking woes. Takeaways: Banking woes continued as UBS bought rival Swiss bank Credit Suisse to stem a brewing crisis. In a coordinated action, the Federal Reserve and other central banks increased liquidity in the U.S. dollar funding markets, resulting in a boost for bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) prices, which both hit 2023 highs. The Federal Reserve announced a rate increase of 25 basis points (bps), but signaled a coming pause. UBS Buys Credit Suisse in Bid to Avoid Further Bank Contagion: Following the collapse of Silvergate, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), and Signature, this week brought further banking turmoil as Swiss bank UBS stepped in to rescue its rival Credit Suisse for $3.25 billion USD in a bid to avoid further panic in global financial markets. The Swiss central bank is also set to provide support for the deal with a loan of 100 billion Swiss francs backed by a federal default guarantee to help support the deal. Central Banks Join Forces to Increase U.S. Dollar Liquidity, Giving Crypto a Boost: The Fed, along with five other central banks, announced on Sunday, March 19, 2023, coordinated action to boost liquidity in U.S. dollar funding markets. This marked an important shift in market conditions and signaled a possible end to the quantitative tightening which has been a major headwind throughout the past year. The news helped to push bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) higher at the start of the week, both reaching new YTD highs of ~$28.9k USD and ~$1,846 USD respectively. Prices then consolidated in the build up to Wednesday’s highly-anticipated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with interest rate expectations changing dramatically over the past few weeks. Fed Raises Rates Again, But Signals a Potential Pause: Despite the recent bank failures and growing concerns around the banking sector, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 bps rate increase at the latest FOMC meeting on Wednesday, as they push ahead in their fight to tame inflation. The FOMC, however, signaled that rate increases may be coming to an end, depending largely on incoming data. The latest Fed dot plot , which outlines interest rate expectations from Fed officials, suggests only one more 25 bps hike is likely this year. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell highlighted during a Wednesday news conference that the Fed had considered a pause in rates due to the recent banking crisis, but unanimously chose to raise rates given inflation data and the strength of the labor market. At the news conference, Powell stated “ if we need to raise rates higher, we will ,” which markets received as more hawkish than expected in light of the recent stress across the banking sector. This led to all the major U.S. indices sliding lower into the close, and crypto prices pushing lower too. Bitcoin Takes Mild Dip Following Rate Increase, But Remains Strong: Bitcoin (BTC) faced strong resistance throughout the week at the ~$28.4k USD level, before briefly touching below $27k USD following the Fed's latest policy decision. However, Bitcoin remains the main focus among crypto with Bitcoin Dominance reaching another year-high of 47.8%. XRP Has Strong Week, and Arbitrum Airdrops Token: In altcoin news, XRP was among the biggest gainers this week, with its price increasing by over 20% at one point as investors grew more confident that a ruling in the long-running court case between the SEC and Ripple would resolve in their favor, following a supplemental notice submitted by Ripple on Monday. The outcome of the case is being closely watched by many, as a positive result for Ripple could set a crucial precedent for crypto. Arbitrum, one of the largest Ethereum Layer 2s, with nearly $2 billion USD in total value locked (TVL), launched a token airdrop on Thursday , with 11.5% of the total supply going to eligible Arbitrum users and 1.1% to DAOs that operate on the Arbitrum ecosystem. The token will be used for governance relating to Arbitrum One and Arbitrum Nova. Read more about this and our topic of the week, interest rates. See you next week. Onward and Upward! Team Gemini *This material is for informational purposes only and is not (i) an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to invest in, or to buy or sell, any interests or shares, or to participate in any investment or trading strategy, (ii) intended to provide accounting, legal, or tax advice, or investment recommendations, or (iii) an official statement of Gemini. Gemini, its affiliates and its employees do not make any representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to accuracy or completeness of the information or any other information transmitted or made available. Buying, selling, and trading cryptocurrency involves risks, including the risk of losing all of the invested amount. Recipients should consult their advisors before making any investment decision. Any use, review, retransmission, distribution, or reproduction of these materials, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited in any form without the express written approval of Gemini.
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
Partners in crime USDT/Bitfinex at it again, lets take advantageAccording to a lot of research groups, Bitfinex and tether/USDT have reportedly been “partners in crime” in a lot of malicious activity that has surrounded either the exchange or the stable coin. The ugly relationship seems to be surfacing again and this is something that I usually ignore given I don’t actually hold USDT/tether and have accepted that at some stage tether/USDT could collapse, people could get burnt, but the market would correct. That would mean opportunity for those on the right side of the correction and those who are not heavily invested in this asset. The current USDT/tether panic has caused a great deal of capital flow through the market: USDT/tether was the second highest traded digital asset over the past 24hours ($2.5bil) compared to only $9.4 million from its closest competitor TrueUSD. USDT/tether trade volume ceded only marginally to Bitcoin. Traders now flee USDT/tether as uncertainty mounts .USDT/tether has now lost its pegg, as has TrueUSD and the Gemini Dollar. Looking at the graph above you will see that USDT/tether went as low as 80c to the dollar. Conversion of USDT into other digital assets is likely to cause a short term rise in digital asset prices but given the relatively small market cap of USDT/tether (against the market as a whole) I don’t see this having much impact on immediate asset prices. However, the mid to long term effect could go one of two ways. 1- FUD causes investor panic and sell off of digital assets back to Fiat, we drop below Bitcoins Point of Control POC and fail to hold the current price levels. 2- FUD will cause a small price drop. The rest of the market not yet invested or the whales looking for the perfect opportunity will make their surprise entrance. I have come up with a scenario 3, 4 and 5 but I chose to back situation number 2. I will hold my BTC, ETC, ZEC, NEO, GAS and ZEN and play the long game.
by warrenhochfeld
1