GOLD Weekly Forecast 10-14 October 2022 GOLD Weekly Forecast 10-14 October 2022
We can see that currently the volatility is around 3.65% for this week, rising from the 3.56% from the last week.
Currently there is around 24.9% that the asset is going to close either above or below the channel:
TOP 1754
BOT 1634
The current volatility percentile is around 90th, placing us in very risky environment. With this situations in general the market moves:
AVG weekly bull candle = 1.5%
AVG weekly bear candle = 1.8%
At the same time, there is currently a 70% that we will touch the high of previous weekly candle of 1730
and there is a 30% that we will touch the low of the previous week of 1660
From the technical analysis point of view:
The majority of moving averages ranging from 10 to 200, are currently around 70% agreement that the market is in a BEARISH trend ( the current price is below those moving averages)
GVX
Gold Rejected Again? Back to Lows?Not to beat a dead horse but Gold is back to try and test a breakout of the downtrend resistance it's been fighting since ATH back in August.
Made a couple attempts to break above overnight around 1917 spot Now kinda of treading water on the downtrend
DXY back on the lows...USD could rally from here and get a reaction out of GLD
Stimulus mostly priced in by now surely?
I'd fade any stimulus related pop and look for Gold to head back to those lows around 1860
Depending on whether or not GVX pops I may sell GLD Call Spreads but I prefer to just play it long GLD Puts and leg those in some sort of spread.
If GVX doesn't budge on a Gold pop that to me would be a tell its not going higher
Gold 'expected move' based on CBOE GVXMy understanding of the GVX gold implied volatility index from CBOE reading 10.44% is approximately 16% probability of gold finishing > 1300 in the next 30 days.
Based on the annualized GVX rate of 10.4% and divide by the sqrt(12) = we get a 30 day expected expected move range.
This means a 1 standard deviation range of 68% probability of the price finishing between approximately 1230 - 1305 by August.
Based on the GVX implied volatility as an annualized rate .... projected out 1 year the 1 SD range would be approx 1135-1400.
Any thoughts on trading gold using the CBOE GVX ?
Another interesting index is GVZ where the implied volatility is based on the GLD ETF. (Link attached below)