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GXC

Will the US market follow China footsteps ?Comparing the 2 charts, we can see that the Chinese Market has break out nicely from its bearish trend for several weeks while the US market has not. We have less than 3 weeks to go before the end of 2022 and the FED has important role to play. First the interest rate - are they going to hike further or starts to trim it down ? If recession is to hit the US market, what will the government do ? Unlike US, China has been printing money for quite some time, understanding how the zero Covid policy has impacted its economic growth for the last few years. We also see how the central government has relaxed some rules for the Property markets resulting in some counters rallying aggressively of late. Now, we are awaiting for more Covid-19 restrictions to be relaxed as the CNY 2023 is just round the corner. This is a major festive event and the government is fully aware of that. With the Tech industry in US suffering major retrenchment , I forsee this will spread to the non-tech industry pretty fast as well. Probaby, by Q1 or Q2 next year. Then, what will President Joe Biden do ? He is coming to his 3rd term and this is a crucial year for him so I think he will urge the FED to then reverse course and starts to lower the interest rates (again ) albeit coming up with different reasons. Then, to sustain the votes and make people happy, he will have no choice but to employ more QE tactics. Pumping money to banks and helping companies tide over this period will be key and be seen as lending support to the people in crucial time. When that happens, the market will again go into a frenzy state just like 2008 and starts another multi year bull run. What do you think ?
SP:SPXLong
by dchua1969
Portfolio Selected Visuals (PSV) vol IThis is a list of my personal portfolio selected ETFs with the simplest visuals, using MACD as the only technical indicator and the trend lines with breaks or breakdowns to give us a new series of PSV charts. ;-) Note that these are using Weekly charts, and a break out is qualified when there is a trendline break out accompanied by a MACD crossover (within a week or two). From left to right... GDX (Gold Miners ETF) qualified a break out on 31 Oct, after a higher low, but sees to have met resistance (red ellipse) ILF (LatAm ETF) is still within a trapped range. XLK (Technology ETF) qualified a break out on 14 Nov, after a higher low, but seems to have met resistance (red ellipse) soon after. GXC (China ETF) qualified a break out on 28 Nov, after a higher low. Appears to have another break out above a resistance line. XLE (Energy ETF) qualified a break out on 17 Oct, after a higher low, but seems to have broke down of support/resistance (red ellipse). INDY (India ETF) qualified a break out on 31 Oct, after a higher low, but seems to have met resistance (red ellipse). XME (Metal Mining ETF) qualified a break out on 24 Oct, after a higher low, but seems to have met resistance (red ellipse). EWS (Singapore ETF) qualified a break out on 14 Nov, without a higher low, and further qualified a better stronger break out pattern on 28 Nov. From this set of visuals, GXC and EWS are the front runners. GDX appears a close third.
AMEX:GXCLong
by Auguraltrader
China ETF GXC - Bounce off support?It has been a really long time since GXC was updated. Previously, an imminent breakout was expected, but it failed, in an epic fashion, to find itself the bottom support of the triangle. Has it bottomed out and ready for a bounce? Early game, but just want to put in the observation that it might bounce for the next attempt to breakout of the triangle. The weeks ahead will be clear that up... Conversely, a break down of the triangle would be bearish! Watch this space... IMHO, worth to watch China equities.
AMEX:GXC
by Auguraltrader
Chine ETF GXC about to break out...For some time, GXC had been flagged as potential for upside... massive upside. Within a triangle, it had already gained over 10% since it was flagged. This week, it appears to be breaking out... out of the triangle that it has been coiling in. Obvious that the weekly and daily chart technical indicators are bullish, or crossing over bullishly. Candlesticks are pointing that too. All systems go here. Target 20% upside... 112 in early to mid-August 2022.
AMEX:GXCLong
by Auguraltrader
1
China ETF GXC pre-launch testPreviously been highlighting China, particularly as Chian equites have been misunderstood, maligned, and assumed to have downside due to their tough COVID-19 strategies. As expected, GXC launched with a gap up. However, this gap up did not translate further into a gap and run, but instead stalled. In view of the overall technical picture, it appears may have formed the last triangle pivot point. Hence, the triangle has been adjusted accordingly, from previous. The weekly chart has nice technicals with RPM and MACD crossing over upside. Would have preferred a more bullish candlestick for the week, but that did not happen. The daily chart has a gap and stall, and this is likely to pan out with a retracement close and reopen the previous gap. Possibly to reconnect with the MA band, and then the real launch with a triangle breakout at the end of June. Path sketched out there. Bullish but need some more baking time...
AMEX:GXC
by Auguraltrader
China ETF GXC to launchAs previously described, yes, the GXC ETF appears to have found its footing to launch. The weekly chart has clocked a higher low, and this week's candlestick is a nice bullish one with a long-ish trailing tail at the bottom, which is a bullish indication. The daily chart shows the week closing at a gap resistance, and above the MA band. Technical indicators are also bullish. Appears ripe for a bullish relaunch! ============================== On a side note, and non-chart related, I just liek to mention something now, that should help in chart reading for anyone. You see, many have told me about China, its severe lockdown, its impact on the economy, and such. I get all that, and I do agree to some extent. These fundamental and geopolitical aspects do form a part of my analyses as well; or at least I look for alignment. This is after all, part of critical analysis over technical analysis... the art in the science. Another aspect I would also like to point out is that biases can be very entrenched and catch us unaware. Even to me it happens, despite being aware about it. You see, I opine that China knows something about the CoV2, and their economy. 5000 years of histroy did not go to waste. IF at all, China learns much more from their rich history than any other IMHO. Bearing this in mind, I find myself asking what is it that they know that I do not yet know. While not getting the answers with clarity, it allows me to think out of the box. And particularly, deviate from Western media and thinking that China this and China that... I do not disagree with their assessment, or reporting, but I find that a large degree of biases are infused in the analytics. Hence I form my own, and dare to deviate where required. Again, adjustments are made, when and where necessary. So... do think about these points when we assess another country or economy, or commodity for that matter. In the longer foreseeable future, I really see China doing better than most of the (western) world. (possibly add Russia into that, but it is way too early and another story for another time) Stay safe and well!
AMEX:GXCLong
by Auguraltrader
1
China ETF GXC finding its foot to launchThe China ETF, GXC, has in recent weeks been beaten down. This is great part dur to concerns about their ideology about a Zero COVID strategy, where it comes with great economic costs. The Western media (mostly) has had a field day whacking China on their "primitive" idea, saying that it is impossible, it is unreasonable, it is irrational, etc. I beg to differ... The saying... "Do not listen to what people say; watch closely what people do" is apt for application here. China has an idealogy it is willing to play out. It also indicates that there is something about CoV2 that they might know, which if true, are not telling the rest of the world about it. And as the world is in bewilderment, makes a laughing stock of China, I do beg to differ. Something deep, something beyond what meets the eye is underlying this hidden dragon. Meanwhile, with bated breath it can be observed the Chain equities have been beaten down... as Shanghai is locked down, and Beijing is at risk of being locked down too. Thing here is... intently watching and looking for a bottoming, it is observed that it might be just starting to break out to the upside. The GXC Daily chart is showing a pick up in Money Flow, MACD and RPM are starting to synchronously push upside. Still early days, but with turning indicators, and as price closed the last day of the week above a consolidation range, it is encouraging Would be looking for a triangle / trend line breakout, with indicators breaking out into bullish territory. The next two weeks would be critical to watch closely.
AMEX:GXC
by Auguraltrader
1
GXC... perhaps it is timeSo, the double tailed candles on the weekly chart only resulted on a week of downside, but the second week proved resilient. The daily chart shows the spike down blowout and the immediate recovery. This indicates very strong support at about 98-100. The new interim support at 102 is holding too. Now, I expected the lack of liquidity and sentiment to push lower, accentuated by the Chinese New Year absence of market participants. But this appears to be a subtle bullish hint that once the two week holiday is over, this dragon will fly... am expecting a test of the daily 55EMA, maybe even popping over the resistance (white line). Daily technicals are supportive.
AMEX:GXC
by Auguraltrader
GXC #epicfailOn 6 Jan, I posted: "GXC is not done... not yet. Another 8-10% downside perhaps." Thereafter, GXC surprised me with a run up and a higher low, breaking above the daily 55EMA twice. Only to fail the 55EMA on Friday, and following through today (Monday) with a deep gap down -3% at mid-day. This is very bearish, and is likely to have a lwoer low with a spike down into or near to the Buy Zone. The Chinese Lunar New Year happens Next week Tuesday, and it really looks like about 2 more weeks of downdraft. The long range analysis appears to hint of a reversal cycle about to restart... and could not be better than after the Chinese Lunar New Year celebrations. Meanwhile, waiting for that lower low...
AMEX:GXC
by Auguraltrader
GXC still BEarishWeekly GXC chart looks bearish with technicals and candlestick ending with a sandwich like stack with a lower low and lower close. The downside support target appears to be quite a way off, about 10% down from current. Daily chart (right) is at a previously marked Buy Zone, but MACD is pushing down more. Price now has a gap resistance to close. Let's see if it can work that out. Meanwhile, very obvious that a lower low is indicating more momentum to downside than not. I like GXC... but seems that it is not yet.
AMEX:GXC
by Auguraltrader
What's up , China ?If we look closely at what the Chinese government have been doing of late, I would say they are indeed doing a great job for the people of China. From clamping down on the 996 working culture , stopping the fan culture online and drastically reducing the amount of tuition for kids........ Living in Singapore, we are not too much different. Parents with kids are also sent to a frenzy when weekends come. They act as chauffeur for their kids, sending them from one enrichment program to another islandwide, hoping to give them a better edge in life. This article here prompted this Taiwanese entrepreneur to take things in his stride and created an eco-farm where his kids and the public can now enjoy and spend more time with nature rather than the mobile phone or laptop. The big picture is to ensure the Generation Z and younger would have a life outside of their virtual world, parents who are slogging hard to make money would not feel so stressful each day worrying about their kids' academic results or extra curricular activities. And of course, down the road, I expect more benefits like maternity , paternity leave , cash grants , etc to be dish out to incentivise more couples to have more children. The notion of "getting older before getting rich" is a concern for the Chinese government and they have to do whatever it takes to turn the situation around. Retirement villages , eldercare services are relatively a new concept in China unlike the US and Europe and it will take some times before we see a change. And because of the "elitism" mentality, many parents are buying properties near the schools they want to enrol their kids. Government has also move in to rein the red hot booming property market and those properties around the school areas have witnessed a drop in pricing after the clampdown on the private education sector. Read article here When reading the news daily ,it may appear that there is a BIG CLEAN UP by the government. Many industries have not been spared and I think more sectors will not be spared in the coming months.......
TVC:HSI
by dchua1969
4
China bash... it ain't over...Of late, Chinese stocks had been bashed and a downside target was set as a Buy Zone. The thing is, the GXC nicely bounced twice by huge gaps (see the orange rectangle), and appears to be clocking two lower lows. Of interest is the current lower low to be... said so as a gap up marubozu is typically bullish, but was transformed into a bearish harami. This happened just short of closing the larger initial gap (uncolored rectangle), and appears to have closed the gap and re-opened it, suggesting ominous bearish outcomes. Technicals below do not show strength, suspect of a hidden bear. Taken altogether, there is likely a revisit to the last lows.
AMEX:GXC
by Auguraltrader