GBPUSD LONG (H4) POTENTIAL 60%~ chance (not enough to commit)To be honest, this for me is like a 60/40 trade at best, I'm not too sure. This trade would be mostly theory or using very low risk. I don't like the price action here with the bull wick rejection on H4 and congestion around 100 ema --- it's a potential uptrend in infancy stage. Retested support twice, looking to target the supply zone around 200ema.
TRADING IDEA --- NOT AN INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
H4
EURUSD still in the mid-term downward channel.EURUSD still in the mid-term downward channel.
As shown in the figure, the EURUSD fell from a high of 1.2349 on January 6 to a low of 1.1704 on March 31, and rebounded sharply to around 1.2150 in April. The entire graph can form a "mid-term downtrend channel". The current price Around 1.20 integers.
The EURUSD price must rise above the April 29 high of 1.2150 in the short term for the April upward trend to continue.
Otherwise, the higher probability that the EURUSD will continue to trend downward in the "mid-term downward trend channel" in the future.
Update: May.6th 2021
Forecast validity: 5 - 15 Market Days.
The probability of DXY Dollar index going up is large.The probability of DXY Dollar index going up is large.
Since the beginning of the year to today (May 5), the US dollar index has risen from the low of 89.2 on January 6 until now.
However, the relatively recent high of 93.437 on March 21 began to fall for six consecutive weeks, and then rebounded on April 28. The current price has returned to above the 91.
Although the SMA60 moving average on the H4 chart has been "death cross" to the SMA200 moving average, decline of the SMA 60 moving average has slowed and there is still a year-to-date mid-term trend support line below.
If the future price does not fall below the mid-term trend support line, the probability of the dollar index rising is still relatively large. On the contrary, if the price falls below the trend line, we should pay attention to the 90 Integer support.
Update: May.5th 2021
Forecast validity: 5 - 10 Market Days.