Next Volatility Period: Around February 16
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USDT and USDC are both renewing their ATH.
I think the gap increase of USDT and USDC is a sign of funds flowing in.
Therefore, we can see that a lot of funds are flowing into the coin market.
(BTC.D 1M chart)
If BTC dominance rises above 62.47, altcoins are likely to show a larger decline, so you should think about a response plan for this.
The rise in BTC dominance means that funds in the coin market are concentrated toward BTC.
BTC dominance does not mean that BTC is rising or falling.
(USDT.D 1M chart)
The rise in USDT dominance is likely to lead to a decline in the coin market.
If USDT dominance rises above 4.97, the coin market is likely to plummet.
Also, it is likely that it is already in a downward trend.
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Why is it falling when funds are flowing into the coin market?
I think it's because there's been a lot of upside, so it's expensive to buy now and profit taking is happening.
BTC is still in an ambiguous position to say that the downtrend has started.
I think that in order for the downtrend to start, it needs to fall below the Fibonacci ratio point of 1.618 (89050.0) and show resistance.
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(BTCUSD 1D chart)
What we need to pay attention to is the trading volume.
If the price falls as the trading volume increases, it is likely to lead to further declines.
In other words, the possibility of continuing the downtrend increases.
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
I think indicators such as Bollinger Bands or Price Channels well express the nature of returning to the mean by forming a channel and confirming the convergence and divergence of the channel.
Currently, since it is maintaining a state of falling below the lower line of the Price Channel indicator, it shows that the force to fall is strong, and at the same time, it shows that the force to return to the mean is getting stronger.
Accordingly, if it rises above the lower line of the Price Channel indicator and maintains the price, it is expected to quickly return to the mean.
The currently set Price Channel indicator uses the MS-Signal indicator as the median, so the key is whether it can rise above the MS-Signal indicator and maintain the price.
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The newly added indicator this time is the StochRSI 50 indicator.
The most commonly used interpretation of the StochRSI indicator is the movement when it leaves the overbought or oversold zone.
However, as I mentioned earlier, the basic principle of the chart is regression to the mean, so the 50 point of the StochRSI indicator has an important meaning.
Therefore, it is judged that when the StochRSI indicator passes the 50 point, it is likely to act as support and resistance.
However, since the StochRSI indicator is located at both ends of the price candle as an auxiliary indicator, it may be difficult to intuitively see and interpret, so it was added to the price chart.
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Due to this decline, the HA-High indicator on the 1W chart is likely to move from the 94742.35 point to the 97226.92 point.
Accordingly, the existing 97461.86 point is expected to play an increasingly important support and resistance role.
Therefore, when the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator falls to around 97461.86, the key is whether the price can rise and be maintained around that level.
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This volatility period is expected to continue until February 10.
The next volatility period is expected to be around February 16 (February 15-17).
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If the price falls while trading spot, it is not a good idea to wait without taking any action because you are at a loss.
However, if you respond too hastily, you may suffer double losses due to volatility, so you need to be careful.
Therefore, you need to check the point where you can realize profits in the big picture and have the mindset to sell a portion of the purchase principal at any time.
For this, I provide the MS-Signal indicator, BW (100), and HA-High indicators as representative indicators in my chart.
The fact that BW(100) and HA-High indicators were created means that it has fallen from the high point, so it means that the indicator point is likely to be the resistance point.
Therefore, it means that when it shows resistance near the indicator point, it is the time to sell in parts.
Since the MS-Signal indicator is an indicator for viewing trends, a drop below the MS-Signal indicator means that the trend is likely to turn downward.
If you sell some of the coins when these indicators show resistance and buy back the amount sold when the price drops, the number of coins (tokens) you hold will increase.
Ultimately, the longer the investment period, the greater the profit will be.
I call this method increasing the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to profit, or increasing the quantity.
If you sell the amount corresponding to the purchase principal in this way, the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to profit will eventually remain, and this will be in a state where the average purchase price is 0.
If you increase the number of coins (tokens) with an average purchase price of 0 in this way, you will always be in a state of profit even if there is a large volatility.
Then, you will be able to conduct transactions more stably.
At this time, what you need to pay attention to is the average purchase price provided by the exchange.
You should ignore this and conduct transactions based on the purchase price.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful transaction.
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- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems that it has been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015.
That is, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year uptrend and faces a 1-year downtrend.
Accordingly, the uptrend is expected to continue until 2025.
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(LOG chart)
As you can see from the LOG chart, the uptrend is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, we expect that we will not see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
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The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
In other words, it is the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.
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No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
How to view and respond to this is up to you.
When the ATH is updated, there are no support and resistance points, so the Fibonacci ratio can be used appropriately.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous when used as support and resistance.
This is because the user must directly select the important selection points required to create Fibonacci.
Therefore, since it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection points, it can be useful for chart analysis, but it can be seen as ambiguous when used for trading strategies.
1st : 44234.54
2nd : 61383.23
3rd : 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (Overshooting)
4th : 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (Overshooting)
5th : 178910.15
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