HAL
New bottom Trough Established for Halliburton ($HAL)Halliburton was as low as the mid-4s per share during mid-March, but with its most recent nadir, it seems to have established a low trough in the 9.5 to 9.7 range. A further fall back to under 5 per share is exceedingly unlikely with many states opening up and drilling to resume on mass-scales soon. $HAL will be the first stock to benefit from the major oil companies following it later with equivalent ascents. A December to March sell-range seems reasonable, with as high as a 500% ROI for those who got in under 5/share. It should establish value in the 20 to 25 range by the beginning of 2021, as a vital oil stock with regards to drilling and production.
With oil on the rise, this stock will begin its rise accordingly and already is after a recent fall Monday following the Fed Chairman's market scare. This is a 7 to 12 month swing trade.
Halliburton (HAL) still a strong buy; semi-long term swing sellOil continues to rise after the historic nadir that saw it trade negatively briefly. Oil giant Halliburton may never reach the trade levels it was at in 2018, but the company is due to rebound quickly as the industry does itself. A major manufacturer of the equipment, it is a mainstay and key oil stock if one wants to capitalize on the rebound overall of the entire industry.
While ideally, one has already acted here, while it was as low 4.50 per share, but it is currently trading in the 10.30s, and still is a must buy.
By December or perhaps by next summer, a full rebound to pre-pandemic prices should be assured at about a 250-300% ROI for investors buying right now. $HAL is a play on the expectation normalcy does return, and it is already showing signs as of yesterday with pump prices increasing nationally. As more states open up, HAL will only benefit from the increase in travel, need for oil, and all the things that this world economy had been dependent upon pre-COVID. This pandemic did teach some lessons, and it also taught that even the most reliable markets are a lot more plastic than we had anticipated. But nothing is forever, and Halliburton is showing nothing but gains as the industry does so. At this point, a strong buy.
I Could Have Been Green - But At What Risk? - 04/29/20 RECAPHi traders,
A slightly negative day on Wednesday which could've been a winner had I held one of my Long trades for long enough. In the video you'll find my reasoning why I left early though and statistically, this was the right decision.
Focus on the long run, not on the flashy bragging rights!
The Trades:
1) HAL - LONG @10.32, exited earlier as the stock didn't react at all to uptrending market. +1.06%
2) SIX - LONG @21.09, beautiful triangle breakout was immediately stopped and turned. My idea was to reverse the position which I did. -1%
3) SIX - SHORT @20.52, reverse trade that typically works in failed breakouts higher like this. However, today it did not. -1%
*In my ID trades, I risk 1% of the account per trade and go for 2% (2:1 RRR ). Sometimes I adapt a little bit as you can see in the trades' description.*
Total PnL for the day: -0.94%
Total PnL for the week: -0.05%
Good trades,
Tom | FINEIGHT
Daytrading RECAP 04/09/20 - Just in Green for the WeekHi traders,
Alright let's wrap this week up!
*In my ID trades, I risk 1% of the account per trade and go for 2% (2:1 RRR ). Sometimes I adapt a little bit as you can see in the description.*
SPY was making up its mind most of the day but it's just the way it is and it's our job as traders to adapt. I only managed not to lose THAT much today, hope you did better!
Five trades today:
1) BIG - LONG @20.05, closed little above my SL @19.25 for a -0.875%
2) SIX - LONG @16.65, this one JUST hit my target @17.45 for today's only winner of +2%
3) SABR - LONG @7.05 and this time I wasn't so lucky. It turned couple of cents under my PT @7.55 and went back to BE and I closed it at the end of the session for -0,2% loss.
4) ERI - LONG @20.02 - a classical example of a fake breakout, stopped out @19.62
5) HAL - LONG @9.01, the break was good but then SPY stepped in and took most of the stocks down, including HAL which in retrospect could've been a nice reversal trade from my SL on.
Total PnL for the day: -1.1%
Total PnL for the week: +0.95%
I wish all of you a great Easter, relax and let's all get prepared for another week in this wonderful trading business!
All the best.
Tom from FINEIGHT
Big Time Rewards - Longterm BUY and HOLD (Scared?)Not going to say nows the best time to buy - its probably not - but I'm willing to bet my left almond shares will be trading around $20 in a year or two.
Seems like an extremely safe yearish long buy and hold. Fun to let things build slow sometimes anyways.
Position size accordingly, look for dips to load up .
Adios,
Fishy
Who Passed The Gas ?winter coming up, Natural Gas spot has already broken out - NGS appears to be lagging, presents a good long opportunity
low liquidity/ low market cap adds to the risk reward balance
The guys on TIP The Investor's Podcast typically have good calls, look at the BBBY returns (from $9.00)
$HAL Close To Breaking Long-Term Downtrend Line$HAL is rallying today on earnings. The best part is that earnings weren't that great. This might be a sign that investors think the worst is over for the company and $HAL is going to bid higher.
$HAL is up 6.95% right now after reporting Q3 GAAP EPS of $0.34 in-line and Revenue of $5.55B (-10.0% Y/Y) that missed by $270M.
Q3 earnings matched Wall Street estimates but revenues fall by a sharper than expected 10% Y/Y to $5.55B, as oilfield services providers cope with weak demand from shale oil producers in North America.
HAL says revenue from North America, which accounts for more than half its total, tumbled 21% Y/Y and 11% Q/Q, primarily due to lower pressure pumping activity and pricing.
Q3 international revenue improved 10% Y/Y but came in flat Q/Q at $2.6B, highlighted by increased cementing activity in the Eastern Hemisphere and activity increases in Argentina.
Q3 completion and production revenue sank 16% Y/Y and 8% Q/Q to $3.51B, missing expectations of $3.66B, and drilling and evaluation revenue rose 2% Y/Y but fell 4% Q/Q to $2.04B and missed consensus of $2.15B.
HAL's results "bring into crystal-clear focus the speed with which North America land well construction and completion activity eroded during course of Q3," Tudor Pickering Holt analysts write.
Rival Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB) reported similar difficulties in North America, saying last Friday it had recorded a $1.58B goodwill impairment charge related to its North American pressure pumping business.
As always, trade with caution and use protective stops.
Good luck to all!
Double if not triple bottom in HAL-Trust sharesShares in HAL Trust have been going down since mid 2017, form a high of around EUR 180 to currently around EUR 130. I think we might have seen a short term double bottom at EUR 127, and a longer term double bottom when you look at the same level lows from December 2018.
The shares still trade at a nice but not huge discount of around 4% to NAV, and the stock throws of a modest dividend of around 2.15% currently.
HAL Trust is the listed investment vehicle of a Roterdam based business family. It contains listed investments and lots of private equity type of ositions. It has a stellar track-record and as far as I am concerned a bright future.
The current portfolio, the discount to NAV and the potential double bottom make me think this is a nice entry point for long term investors.
Halliburton the evil cash machinelook for a bounce as gas/ petro rebounds, and the Maduro regime collapses (opens the door to western capitalist energy companies)
Wait until sub $20 to get in, still haven't seen a capitulation bottom candle yet on the 1W (look for vol total greater than 90 million, preferably 115+ )
Long HAL - Long OilWhats up Traders -
Looking out here at a 'swing trade'.
I'm fully expecting:
oil prices to rise
Production to stay curtailed
The Iranian sanction lift to go off without a bearish pressure on the oil industry.
Summer Demand / increasing demand to cause shortages
Prices to Spike
Oil Companies profit outlooks to rise
Long Halliburton / Oil is a solid low risk - high reward play here IMO.
HAL: Interesting long entry...I think $HAL is poised to rise up to 50% from here, it tested a monthly support and held up, and is now shooting up with oil coming out of a correction. I'm entering positions at market open, and looking to add over time as the trend develops, if it does bottom here as I see it now.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.