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Tom Hall Market Review #12 - Wednesday, 10 April 2019Tom Hall Market Review #12 - Wednesday, 10 April 2019 U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc The USD.CHF Daily price action continues to decelerate at the 1.000 horizontal structure resistance. Additional confluence factors consist of the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement and 50EMA. The 4-hour timeframe continues to form bearish RSI divergence indicating early signs of an intraday trend change. A break and close below .9977 confirms the trend change forming a new low, in addition to breaching the ascending trendline 50EMA, and 200EMA. Dollar weakness is expected over the coming months ( DXY analysis ) confirming a potential trade opportunity against the Swiss Franc. U.S. Dollar Index The DXY continues to trade below the 97.60 horizontal structure resistance dating back to June 2017. Additional signs of Dollar weakness are beginning to develop, including the bearish Weekly RSI divergence, Daily head and shoulders formation, and intraday trend change. The weakness identified confirms my U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc thesis, providing additional positive confluence factors as I monitor a trading opportunity. Euro / Japanese Yen In yesterdays Market Review #11 I outlined the multiple layers of confluence that consist of the 125.70 horizontal structure resistance, ascending trendline ( 15, January 2019 ), descending trendline ( 01, March 2019 ) 50EMA and 61.80% Fibonacci retracement. The Daily structure resistance was rejected as price action developed a bearish engulfing candle ( 09, April 2019 ). This candle confirms my trading rules as I await a valid entry on the 4-hour timeframe. The 4-hour timeframe continues to form HH's and HL's, this Indicates continued bullish pressure and no early signs of a trend change. A break and close below 125.12 is required prior to a trading opportunity.
by UnknownUnicorn180388
16
Tom Hall Market Review #11 - Tuesday, 09 April 2019Tom Hall Market Review #11 - Tuesday, 09 April 2019 Euro / Swiss Franc - P/L +0.31% The textbook bullish engulfing candle that developed at horizontal structure support after an exhausted run presented a long opportunity. Trade Activated - Tuesday, 02 April 2019 The high-test reversal candle that developed on Friday wasn't a huge concern as my trailing stop loss was placed below intraday structure support. Unfortunately, our trailing stop loss was triggered on market open, closing the position prematurely at +0.31% There was an option to trail our stop loss at breakeven; this option would have returned more profit, however as we approach a potential deadline in Brexit negotiations it's my job to protect exposed capital. Balancing the negative and positive confluence indicated the risk became a little greater than the potential reward. Euro / U.S. Dollar The horizontal structure support at 1.1190 held price action after a low-test reversal candle formed on the 02, April 2019. The acceleration to start this week has presented a potential short opportunity quicker than expected as price approaches structure resistance. The structure consists of the descending trendline ( 09, January 2019 ), 38.20% Fibonacci retracement and 50EMA. Additional development is still required as price action must show signs of deceleration, indicating the structure is being respected. Continued acceleration indicates the lack of orders at structure; this increases the potential risk and invalidates a trading opportunity. Euro / Japanese Yen This week the EUR.JPY is #1 on the currency pair trade watchlist given the multiple layers of positive confluence. The confluence consists of the 125.70 horizontal structure resistance, ascending trendline ( 15, January 2019 ), descending trendline ( 01, March 2019 ) 50EMA and 61.80% Fibonacci retracement. I'm simply awaiting a reversal candle to confirm rejection of the structure levels. This Friday's Brexit decision is a cause for concern and has been factored into the negative confluence. Should price action not develop before Thursday, this trade opportunity will be invalid due to increased risk. New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar The NZD.USD is some way from developing a short opportunity. However, there are early signs of development that I'll continue to monitor throughout this week. The 1-hour and 4-hour RSI has confirmed early signs of an intraday trend change, for this to be confirmed a break and close above the 4-hour descending trendline resistance at .6770 is required. If / when price action accelerates I'll monitor development on the approach to .6800 horizontal structure resistance. To obtain a potential 4:1 reward comparative to risk on this opportunity requires patience, executing prematurely increases the risk of unnecessary drawdown.
by UnknownUnicorn180388
Tom Hall Market Review #10 - Wednesday, 03 April 2019Tom Hall Market Review #10 - Wednesday, 03 April 2019 U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc The USD.CHF Daily timeframe formed a high-test reversal candle on the 02, April 2019 after an acceleration back into the crucial structure. The structure consists of 0.9980 horizontal resistance, 38.20% Fibonacci retracement ( 07, March High to 20, March Low ), and 50EMA. In addition, the Weekly timeframe bearish RSI divergence confirms my lower timeframe thesis. The reward to risk on this particular opportunity isn't great as we have to respect the Weekly 50EMA and ascending trendline support dating back to 12, February 2018. The positive comparative to negative confluence factors validate a trade opportunity. However, opening a CHF trade parallel to my EUR.CHF active position would increase my maximum exposure. Australian Dollar / Swiss Franc The AUD.CHF textbook Daily descending wedge formation presents clear levels of both support and resistance; this makes it easier to identify a take-profit and stop-loss placement. Although price-action continues to be trapped below the descending trendline, a breach of the previous lower-high on the 01, April 2019 confirmed early signs of a trend change; this indicates a breakout to the upside is highly probable. In regards to take-profit levels, there are two that hold the most significance. The first, is the Weekly descending trendline dating back to 08, January 2018, this aligns with the Weekly 50EMA, both of which provide a level of structure resistance at 0.7150 Second, is the high of 0.7230 testing the descending wedge and Weekly structure resistance. This option does carry more risk; however, there is an option to trail a stop-loss if / when price approached 0.7150 S&P 500 The strength of price-action since the 02, March 2009 historical ascending trendline rejection shows no signs of slowing down as it approaches Daily structure resistance. The final Daily structure available is at 2870, should price-action close above this a retest of the all-time high at 2935 is highly probable. I'll continue to sit on the sideline until confluence indicates a short term consolidation period is available.
by UnknownUnicorn180388
Tom Hall Market Review #9 - Tuesday, 02 April 2019Tom Hall Market Review #9 - Tuesday, 02 April 2019 Canadian Dollar / Swiss Franc The Daily timeframe developed a triple top and ascending wedge formation at the 0.7620 horizontal structure resistance. The 01, March 2019 acceleration caused price-action to collapse, breaching the ascending trendline support, 50EMA, and 200EMA. A consolidation period developed pulling back to 0.7550 before the continued acceleration providing a clear bearish trend. I waited for a second consolidation period back into the descending channel resistance, 61.80% Fibonacci retracement, and 50EMA. However, as price-action has failed to decelerate on the approach to structure, this trading opportunity is now invalid. Although this trade opportunity failed to confirm my entry rules, I outline the structure as it's paramount traders understand that no matter how positive the confluence in a small trading zone, it may not necessarily validate a trade opportunity. Euro / Swiss Franc The Daily bearish trend dating back to the 19, April 2018 provides a broader view of the overall structure; this information becomes more relevant when identifying exit levels. Price-action found support at 1.1160 forming a bullish engulfing candle, this in addition to the oversold RSI status confirms how overextended price-action has been. The 4-hour and 1-hour timeframes presented day trading opportunities with multiple layers of confluence; this confirmed my higher timeframe thesis. The healthy 2.5:1 reward comparative to risk allowed myself and clients to execute a long position on Tuesday, 02 April 2019. Euro / Japanese Yen The EUR.JPY short term trend dating back to the 01, March 2019 lacks historical structure; however the multiple layers of positive technical confluence at 125.50 provides a narrow trading zone. Technical confluence consists of the 125.50 horizontal structure resistance, ascending and descending trendline resistance ( confirming channel ), 61.80% Fibonacci retracement, and 50EMA. Additional development is required throughout this week as a deeper consolidation period is required. USOIL The long awaited 60.00 Weekly and Daily structure that had been identified on Market Review #1, #4, #5 and #6 failed to hold the bullish pressure. The Daily ascending wedge formation is no longer relevant as the Weekly price-action continues to accelerate approaching the ascending trendline structure resistance dating back to 18, January 2016. The RSI approaches overbought status on both the Daily and Weekly timeframes confirming the overextended run. Although I'm still bearish long term a significant amount of confluence are required to develop before presenting a short opportunity.
by UnknownUnicorn180388
7
Tom Hall Market Review #8 - Tuesday, 26 March 2019Tom Hall Market Review #8 - Tuesday, 26 March 2019 Euro / Japanese Yen The rejected Weekly horizontal structure resistance at 127.30 confirms my Monthly bearish thesis. Additional protection of the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement, 50EMA, and 200EMA provide a clear trading zone. The Daily and 4-hour ascending trendline break and retest at 125.00 provides a level of interest, from both an entry and stop loss perspective. Additional confluence includes a Fibonacci cluster and the Weekly Pivot. The positive comparative to the negative confluence is enough to justify a trading opportunity. However, the minimal reward given the lack of structure requires a timed entry on the intraday timeframes. I will continue to monitor the development of price action throughout the week. Bitcoin I previously outlined in Market Review #5 that predicting Bitcoin's next significant move is immensely tricky; the equilibrium between buyers and sellers confirms the indecision approaching the descending trendline dated 30, April 2018. The Daily ascending trendline was breached on the 25, March 2019; this provides an early indication of the potential downside in the coming weeks. You can never be too cautious trading indecisive markets; Its paramount patience is the priority as we await clear direction. Gold / U.S. Dollar The request from traders to provide my opinion on the development of Gold has increased in recent weeks, the head and shoulders formation developing on the Daily timeframe has been at the center of question. Drawing a descending trendline connecting the neckline of the head and shoulders formation immediately outlines why it's not an optimal formation to trade. The angle is too severe and would require a decline from 1320.0 to 1270.0 This would require an overextended run that would inevitably eat into potential profit. Trading the common neckline breakout would require a significantly substantial stop loss above all structure levels. In my opinion, this particular head and should formation has no profitable edge, the lack of structure in addition to the large risk comparative to reward invalidates a trading opportunity.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by UnknownUnicorn180388
7
Tom Hall Market Review #6 - Thursday, 21 March 2019Tom Hall Market Review #6 - Thursday, 21 March 2019 Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen Active Position - Tuesday, 12 March 2019 I outlined in Market Review #5 the 4-hour timeframe consolidated deeper than initially expected, this caused drawdown to exceed 0.40%. The 4-hour horizontal structure at 83.60 held price action for three consecutive days. The acceleration finally kicked-in helping price to breach the 50EMA and 200EMA taking the active position back to breakeven. A break and close below 82.60 would indicate a higher timeframe trend change, providing more positive confluence to our active position. Euro / U.S. Dollar The descending channel outlined on the Daily timeframe failed to hold, as price breaches the previous structure high at 1.1390 on the 20, March 2019. Currently, there's no trade opportunity given the minimal reward comparative to risk and substantial stop loss required. However, the breach of both Daily and Weekly structure has my attention as price develops throughout next week. The 1.1600 horizontal structure resistance and 200EMA align, providing a clear trading level to target should an opportunity present itself. New Zealand Dollar / Swiss Franc I urged inexperienced traders in Market Review #5 to trade the NZD.CHF with caution, due to the high potential of traps that would cause unnecessary drawdown. A breach of the Daily ascending trendline on 20, March 2019 caused many traders to execute a short position prematurely, my concern was the Daily 50EMA support and the 4-hour bullish RSI divergence. The positive confluence failed to outweigh the negatives, confirming my thesis and invalidating a trade opportunity. USOIL The long-awaited, highly anticipated Weekly structure at $60.00 is now under pressure as we approach market close. The Daily overbought status in conjunction with the 4-hour bearish RSI divergence indicates early signs of weakness, confirming my higher timeframe thesis. Additional development on the Weekly timeframe is required to confirm a trading opportunity. Prematurely executing a short position could cause unnecessary drawdown.
by UnknownUnicorn180388
7
Tom Hall Market Review #7 - Sunday, 24 March 2019Tom Hall Market Review #7 - Sunday, 24 March 2019 Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen Weekly Timeframe - The Weekly timeframe developed a high-test reversal candle on the 25, February 2019 rejecting the 84.40 horizontal structure resistance, 50EMA and 61.80% Fibonacci retracement. There's certainly an argument to enter the market once a high-test reversal candle formed rejecting structure. However, it's paramount clean technicals develop on the Daily and 4-hour timeframe prior to entry. Daily Timeframe - The ascending wedge formation dating back to the 03, January 2019 squeezed price action on the approach to the Weekly structure previously outlined. A high-test reversal candle formed rejecting the 84.20 horizontal structure resistance, in addition to breaching the ascending trendline structure support. The acceleration that developed throughout the first week of March confirmed my higher timeframe thesis. Once price breached the Daily 50EMA, I delved deeper into the intraday timeframes to identify a trade opportunity. 4-hour Timeframe - The large sell-off from the 84.20 Weekly and Daily structure meant the 4-hour timeframe was overextended on the RSI, this indicates a consolidation period is highly probable. Drawing a Fibonacci from the swing high at 85.23 to the swing low at 82.40 presented a 38.20% Fibonacci retracement at the 50EMA, 200EMA, and Weekly Pivot. A short position was initiated on Tuesday, 12 March 2019 after the 1-hour timeframe approached overbought status confirming the deceleration. Activated: 83.066 Stop Loss: 84.527 Take Profit: 80.759 Trade Closed Manually: It's very rare I close positions early; however, on this occasion there was a basket of negative confluence factors that could not go unnoticed. The sell-off from the high at 84.08 to 82.31 caused the 4-hour, 1-hour and 15-minute timeframe to be oversold. In addition to the technicals, we were quickly approaching the CAD economic data, the consensus was not favorable to our active position and ultimately adding negative confluence. The option to adjust our stop loss to breakeven and await a consolidation period was unavailable due to the 4-hour 50EMA exceeding our initial entry at 83.06. Capital At Risk: 0.50% Reward / Risk: 1.58:1 Maximum Drawdown: 0.40% Total Profit: +0.26%
by UnknownUnicorn180388