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Tom Hall Market Review #4 - Thursday, 14 March 2019Tom Hall Market Review #4 - Thursday, 14 March 2019 Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen The CAD.JPY continues to consolidate deeper than initially anticipated. However, the 4-hour RSI has now entered overbought status at 83.14 indicating early signs of reversal. Drawing an ascending trendline from 08, March at 06:00 to the current value presents a level at 83.60 that price much breach before indicating a sell-off. Active Portfolio - CAD.JPY 0.34% DD S&P 500 A rejection of the 2815.0 horizontal structure resistance on the 04, March 2019 presented an ascending channel breakout on the daily timeframe. The continued acceleration in the first week of March indicated a large sell-off was highly probable. However, on the 08, March 2019 a low-test reversal candle formed rejecting the Daily 50EMA, confirming the oversold RSI status on the 4-hour timeframe. Currently, there's no trade opportunity or predicted direction until a significant break of 2815.0 has developed. USOIL I outlined in Market Review #1 that the $60.00 structure resistance continued to hold as the key trading level. Until any such time where price rejects or breaches this structure, I'll be sitting on the sidelines. Well, the price is now quickly approaching the trading zone at $59.00 I'll continue to monitor and update you on price action in the coming weeks as I delve deep into intraday price action to identify early signs of weakness.
by UnknownUnicorn180388
7
Tom Hall Market Review #3 - Wednesday, 13 March 2019Tom Hall Market Review #3 - Wednesday, 13 March 2019 Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen The CAD.JPY throughout March has presented clean technicals on the approach to significant structure levels across multiple trading timeframes. A weekly doji, followed by an acceleration candle formed rejecting the 84.40 horizontal structure resistance, 50EMA, and 61.80% Fibonacci retracement. This indicates additional acceleration is highly probable. The ascending wedge and Daily 50EMA breakout confirmed my weekly timeframe thesis. However, additional development was required on the 4-hour timeframe to establish the timing of entry. Significant deceleration on the 4-hour timeframe approaching the 83.60 horizontal structure resistance, 38.20% Fibonacci retracement and 50EMA presented a textbook trading opportunity and confirming my entry criteria. CAD.JPY (S) was initiated on Tuesday, 12 March 2019 British Pound / Australian Dollar The weekly 1.8600 horizontal structure resistance was rejected at the beginning of March. However, I wasn't convinced this would present a trade opportunity given that price continued to form HH's and HL's without the RSI testing overbought status. The Daily ascending trendline and 50EMA continued to provide support, confirming my weekly timeframe concerns. Although technically price was still bullish, I was happy to execute a quick 1:1 position, targeting the structural support. The 4-hour timeframe failed to consolidate after the breach of ascending trendline and 50EMA, invalidating any trading opportunity. Of course, the indecision surrounding Brexit was a cause for concern, and considering the technicals were less than great I was happy not to execute a position. British Pound / Canadian Dollar The 1.7570 weekly horizontal structure rejection presented a level of interest after a period of indecision. The RSI failed to provide an overbought status or divergence, indicating a sell-off would be short-lived. Daily timeframe structure helped identify a clear trading zone that would present a potential take profit level, should the intraday timeframes align. The 4-hour trend change provided an additional positive confluence factor. However, as price developed it was clear a consolidation period back into intraday structure resistance wouldn't be enough to convince me to execute a short position. An active position was not initiated for two reasons. 1. The CAD.JPY short opportunity presented more reward comparative to risk, in addition to stronger confluence factors. 2. Similar to that of the British Pound / Australian Dollar, my concern surrounding the Brexit negotiations added to the negative confluence. Euro / Japanese Yen The EUR.JPY presented all the positive confluence factors that are required before executing a position. Weekly bearish engulfing candle rejecting the 127.30 horizontal resistance, 61.80% Fibonacci retracement, 50EMA, and 200EMA. The Daily timeframe closed below the ascending and horizontal structure support, in addition to the 50EMA. The 4-hour also confirmed my higher timeframe thesis, with a breach of the ascending trendline and 50EMA. A consolidation period retesting the intraday 38.20% Fibonacci retracement, 50EMA and 200EMA were expected and required before a short opportunity. I tallied up both positive and negative confluence factors on the CAD.JPY and EUR.JPY, by doing so allowed me to identify the highest probability for both currency pairs. The CAD.JPY (S) was initiated due to the additional structure levels between our entry and stop loss. Swiss Franc / Japanese Yen The CHF.JPY weekly timeframe provided a firm rejection of the 112.00 psychological horizontal resistance, descending trendline, 50EMA, and 200EMA. Similar to that of the EUR.JPY, I tallied up the confluence factors against the CAD.JPY. The CHF.JPY daily timeframe failed to provide a structure or clear trend, this added to the negative confluence and inevitably wasn't as favorable compared to the other Japanese Yen pairs on the trade watchlist.
by UnknownUnicorn180388
Tom Hall Market Review #2 - Friday, 08 March 2019Tom Hall Market Review #2 - Friday, 08 March 2019 Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen The AUD.JPY, unfortunately, failed to present a consolidation period before the continued decline, invaliding a short opportunity. The initial impulse is now approaching oversold on the 4-hour and daily timeframes, indicating a consolidation period into early next week is highly probable. Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen The CAD.JPY decline this week is the largest of this year. Unfortunately, we were unable to advantage of the move as price failed to present a consolidation period. Its occasions like this where traders become frustrated, executing positions when the price is accelerating, by doing so decrease your reward comparative to risk while exposing yourself to a significant amount of unnecessary drawdown. Euro / U.S. Dollar I approached this week with caution, given the conflicting information across multiple trading timeframes. Although indecisive, there were still trading opportunities available, but the timing of the entry was crucial considering the minimal reward/risk. The weekly descending trendline dating back to February 2018 and 1.1300 horizontal structure support presented a wedge formation; this outlined clear trading levels for both short and long opportunities. The possible reward comparative to risk for the short opportunity failed to exceed 1:1, this for me invalidated the opportunity. I then shifted my attention to a long opportunity; the intraday price began to decelerate on approach to the 1.1300 horizontal support. The equilibrium lasted only eight hours before the continued acceleration occurred, breaching the 1.1300 structure support and invalidating my long opportunity. U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc At the beginning of this week, I outline the lack of downside acceleration after the 1.0050 weekly rejection. Analyzing the daily timeframe confirmed my caution was justified. What looked to be a reversal on the weekly timeframe was merely a consolidation period on the daily timeframe. The negative confluence significantly outweighed any positives, invaliding a trade opportunity. I talk so often about utilizing multiple timeframes to identify traps; this is a textbook example of why it's so important to be hyper-aware of price action behavior. Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar This year the indecisive price action has failed to present a clear trading opportunity. However, I continue to analyze the multiple timeframes to gauge an early indication of the future direction. My focus moving forward is to monitor the weekly timeframe for a breach of the February 2018 descending trendline. The range between $4,200 and $6,130 is the zone where I'm looking to exploit and take advantage of the healthy reward comparative to risk.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by UnknownUnicorn180388
Tom Hall Market Review #1 - Thursday, 07 March 2019Tom Hall Market Review #1 - Thursday, 07 March 2019 Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen Approaching this week the CAD.JPY presented textbook multi-timeframe technicals and healthy reward comparative to risk, placing this #1 on my currency trade watchlist. The daily ascending wedge, 4-hour ascending trendline and 50EMA breach were confirmed on Monday, 04 March 2019, this allowed me to place alerts awaiting a consolidation period. Price continued to accelerate into Tuesday and Wednesday, breaching the intraday 83.60 horizontal support without presenting a pullback. Today, the intraday timeframes are indecisive as the 4-hour RSI enters oversold, this indicates a consolidation period is highly probable. The CAD.JPY continues to remain on my active trade watchlist while the risk/reward exceeds 1:2 Australian Dollar / Swiss Franc The AUD pairs dominated my trade watchlist entering Monday's London session. However, the market gap on Sunday meant additional development across the 4-hour timeframes were required. The AUD.CHF daily head and shoulders formation has been developing since the start of January 2019. A highly anticipated breach of the neckline at 0.7100 was confirmed on Friday, 01 March 2019, placing this pair on my main trade watchlist entering this week. On Tuesday, the 4-hour timeframe developed bullish RSI divergence, which was a cause for concern after a large bullish candle entered my trading zone. Due to the lack of deceleration and reversal candles, it invalidated a short opportunity. There are occasions when a textbook trade opportunity fails to present an entry, its key to suppress the emotional and impulsive demons due to the FOMO. Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen The months of indecisive weekly price action approaching the 79.00 horizontal structure resistance, helped form a daily ascending wedge formation. A breach of 78.90 was required to confirm the first stage of a short opportunity. On Tuesday, 05 March 2019 price closed below the daily wedge formation, 4-hour ascending trendline, 50EMA, and 200EMA confirming stage two of a short opportunity. I'm now merely awaiting a consolidation period to form, this will provide additional confluence and healthier potential reward. S&P 500 The rejection of $2815 horizontal structure resistance presented an ascending channel breakout on the daily timeframe confirming my higher timeframe thesis. However, I still require additional development throughout this week to establish a potential short opportunity next week. An intraday consolidation period before market close would inevitably form a low-test candle on the weekly timeframe as opposed to a bearish engulfing. A patient approach while the price develops is crucial to minimize any unnecessary drawdown. USOIL The $60.00 structure resistance continues to hold as the key trading level. Until any such time where price rejects or breaches this structure, I'll be sitting on the sidelines. The 4-hour chart indicates price is trapped between the $55.00 horizontal support and $57.50 resistance.
by UnknownUnicorn180388
8
Market Review / 25, February 2019 - 01, March 2019Trade Summary: 25, February 2019 - 01, March 2019 British Pound / Japanese Yen: The British Pound uncertainty automatically leads me to be cautious in executing opportunities. However, the positive confluence factors across multiple timeframes instilled confidence that amidst the uncertainty, there was a clear trading opportunity. Amongst the positive confluence there was one lingering negative that couldn’t go unnoticed, that was the risk comparative to reward. Whenever there’s uncertainty, it’s paramount the reward considerably outweighs all risk. On this particular occasion it was difficult to obtain more than a 1:1 prior to testing structure, this automatically forced me to neglect the overall trading opportunity. Euro / Japanese Yen: A short position was executed on the Thursday, 14 February 2019 based on the multiple timeframe confluence at 125.50 I timed the entry on the 4-hour chart once a close below all structure support levels was confirmed. This short positions closed at a loss of 0.5% on Monday, 25 February 2019. One thing is for certain, the volatility is just getting started as we move ever closer to the Brexit deadline. U.S. Dollar Index: Here we are, three months into the year and the Dollar Index is beginning to present clean turning points across multiple trading timeframes. Although the weekly ascending trendline and 50EMA continues to act as structure support, the acceleration after the 04, February 2019 failed to continue, indicating a large decline in Q2 is highly probable. Additional development intraday is required prior to confirming a potential trade opportunity. Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen: The Daily wedge formation caused significant choppiness throughout late February, making this currency difficult to trade. I awaited development on the intraday timeframes as I was concerned the 4 hour timeframe consolidation period was simply price forming a higher low. Awaiting an intraday trend change would have presented a trade opportunity, unfortunately this failed to occur as we now approach market close.
by UnknownUnicorn180388
2