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Halving2024

Bitcoin Halving 4: The Dawn of a New Bullish Era with a $150,000Introduction The fourth Bitcoin halving, anticipated on April 15th, 2024, marks the beginning of a new era, reinforcing Bitcoin's deflationary narrative and catalyzing its cyclical market dynamics. With 90% of Bitcoin's supply already mined and a reduced block reward of 3.125 BTC, scarcity is set to increase, setting the stage for a bullish trajectory. Historically, Bitcoin’s halving cycles have driven predictable phases: bullish trends in the initial 70,000 blocks, bearish retracements in the next 70,000 blocks, and sideways consolidation in the final stretch before the next halving. As we step into the bullish phase of Halving 4, this analysis explores Bitcoin’s trajectory toward a potential peak of $150,000, supported by historical patterns, logarithmic regression models, and on-chain metrics like the MVRV ratio and z-score. Where Are We Today? Having experienced the lows of the third halving era, which began on May 11th, 2020, Bitcoin has successfully weathered the sideways phase characterized by market equilibrium. With the MVRV ratio at 2.24, Bitcoin is signaling fair value, poised for the bullish uptrend expected in the fourth halving era. Historically, Bitcoin’s market dominance reflects this cyclical behavior. During bearish and sideways phases, dominance often falls below 40%, but as the bullish phase takes hold, dominance surges to 70%, bolstering its influence over the entire cryptocurrency market. These dynamics suggest that Bitcoin is primed for significant price appreciation. Halving Cycles and Price Projections The logarithmic regression model shown in the chart encapsulates Bitcoin’s historical price patterns. The projected target of $150,000 aligns with the intersection of Bitcoin's parabolic uptrend and its logarithmic regression of highs. Key milestones include: Post-Halving Bullish Phase (0 to 70,000 blocks): Historically marked by exponential price growth. Bearish Phase (70,000 to 140,000 blocks): A retracement period, with average drawdowns of 80% from cycle highs. Sideways Phase (140,000 to 210,000 blocks): A period of consolidation, setting the stage for the next halving. For Halving 4, projections suggest: A high of $150,000 during the bullish phase. An 80% drawdown, positioning the bearish-phase low at $55,000. The MVRV Ratio: A Key Indicator The MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realized Value) serves as a robust tool for assessing Bitcoin’s valuation. Current metrics indicate that Bitcoin is fairly valued, with room for substantial growth in the coming phase: Historical Extremes: MVRV > 3.7: Overbought conditions, signaling market tops. MVRV < 1: Undervalued conditions, signaling market bottoms. As Bitcoin transitions into the fourth halving era, the MVRV ratio’s current reading of 2.24 suggests equilibrium, with significant upside potential. Projected Timeline April 2024 (Halving): Bitcoin enters the bullish phase, with increasing demand outpacing diminishing supply. 2025-2026: Price targets of $150,000 are achievable as the cycle matures. Post-Bullish Phase: Expected retracement to $55,000, aligning with historical drawdowns. Conclusion Bitcoin’s cyclical nature, driven by its deflationary halving mechanism, positions it as a unique asset in the financial markets. As we enter the fourth halving era, the combination of historical data, on-chain metrics like the MVRV ratio, and market dynamics underscores the potential for Bitcoin to reach $150,000. This analysis highlights Bitcoin's enduring appeal as a store of value and a driver of innovation in the digital asset space. While short-term volatility is inevitable, the long-term outlook remains bullish. Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are inherently volatile, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Sources: Coin Metrics CryptoQuant TradingView Data Analysis
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Theperfectionist
1
BTC/USD Halving 518 When will be the cycle price low and high.Main trend. Time frame 1 month. This idea is almost a clone (in meaning, not visualization) of my previous idea published 1.3 years ago: BTC/USD Secondary trend cycles and halvings. For great visualization and clarity I added leap years (pre-pump, pre-distribution), this applies to all markets, not just the “young” cryptocurrency market... That is, after it, just the price is in the zone of distribution (sales), which is identical with the price highs of the secondary trend. Bitcoin cycle 4 years: Year 1 - birth of a new bullish trend (leap year). By the way the next year 2024 is exactly like that. But, read carefully to understand the point. For some time the price moves sideways or with a small rise. Positive/negative alternates. Negative dominates. There is no interest in the crypto market. The traffic of stupid money is minimal. The volatility of the price of instruments is usually minimal. This phase of the market is also called "participation" (more relevant to the second part). In the final phase—active movement to the distribution zone (the zone of sales by large market participants—small). In a given year (or near this time zone in the previous year), there is typically a second dump (second price low) with more aggressive dynamics by a large %. Dump -60.66% 03 2020. On the chart as an example of past dump at -60.66% (magnet) at the start of Corona 03 2020 (taking advantage of the world situation) before pumping the market in the future. Always keep this kind of thing in mind and be prepared for it, even if you are sure it is unlikely. Observe mani management. Training idea/work 02 2020: Trading by trends and important areas using the example of BTC Something like a big triangle like 2020 is forming now. BTC/USD Main trend (3 years) Channels Triangle 09 2023 Altcoins in this time zone cycle . Altcoins tend to be in their accumulation channels. Alternately, from time to time, some are “firing” (usually of lower liquidity). Some produce “takeouts” under the dial zones. The essence of this time zone for alts is to gain as much as possible % of positions from the market. The price is not important (the average price of a set is taken into account), alts typically follow the general market trend, which is logical and tactful from the position of long-term prospects of earning in cycles. Year 2 - Bull Market. Trend price maximum and distribution zone . Resetting positions by large market participants. That is, the smart money sells to the dumb at the market high. The 17 weeks post-halving ( 518 days, gematria ) zone of perfect selling in crypto asset allocation. Roughly speaking it's a zone near price highs, at least that's always been the case in past cycles of bitcoin and the crypto market as a projection of it. Altcoins in this time zone of the cycle. Inadequate altcoin pumping. Typically, "old" cryptocurrencies are showing 5-10x (+500-1000%) of previous dialing zones. The average profit accumulation/distribution of almost any cryptocurrency is 5-8X, with the range of lows and highs (for hamsters) usually twice as large. A huge amount of all sorts of crypto speculative garbage "promising cryptocurrencies" and "bitcoin killers" is created ... Pumped at the most inadequate interest with holding the reset zone for a long period of time due to the huge traffic of "stupid money". It should be separately emphasized that in this time zone of the cycle huge traffic of “stupid money”, who want to get rich without understanding anything about it. The crowd is not afraid to buy. This is key. The media is all about the positive. A huge number of newly-formed crypto experts are young kids, whose expertise will disappear when the market turns around in the next sub-cycle.... Anyone can make money ("sitting on the trend"), even buying and holding anything for a while, of course, except for "promising high-tech crypto garbage" on inadequate pumps and with the same news positive accompaniment. Absolutely all alts including high capitalization never repeat their price highs to bitcoin. Year 3 Bear Market. Market dumps from area of distribution (selling) price highs to area of set (buying). Price typically drops about -70%-80% on bitcoin Typically, when a distribution support zone is broken, many scare tales or real negative news stories are created to scare and trigger a “crypto depression”. Subsequently, a mostly negative news backdrop dominates, usually of a made up fairy tale nature in “three lines” for the true fools. Holders of “promising crypto” are bleeding, hope for the price to return to the previous value and "faith in projects" are gradually fading away. The final phase is dominated by the view that it's all a “crypto scam”. Bitcoin will "die." Toward the end of the phase, there is always a “bloody month” (price minimum)—before the formation of the dialing zone. Altcoins in this time zone of the cycle. Altcoins are declining from pumping highs before stopping the decline and moving sideways (set zones): Highly liquid 80-90% Medium liquid 90-96% Low liquid (extinction candidates) from -95% and below % conditional on such "crypto trash on the verge of life and death". Year 4 is the sideways zone, i.e. the accumulation zone. . In this time zone after a significant dump (more than a year) there is a corrective price recovery movement. This is the so-called "intermediate bitcoin pumping cycle". We are just in it at the moment. Altcoins in this time zone of the cycle. Altcoins of high and medium liquidity depreciate, as a rule, by -90-93%. Once this % depreciation is reached, horizontal accumulation channels (1 major zone) of position set for the next cycle are usually formed. "Cryptocurrency holders" who bought at or near price highs in the last cycle tend to all sell at a large loss in "tired of waiting" accumulation zones for their "promised bags of money". Low-liquid altcoins depreciate in price by -95% or lower. It is worth recalling that -95% from the previous -90% is -50%. That is another reduction of the deposit of the “grief trader” in two times. A part of altcoins, which with a small "community of believers in the wrapper" - “dies”. Often, the creators crypto run out of money for all sorts of marketing tricks. Then they pour the rest of their crypto phantom on the market, inventing some tale of hacking or something similar.... After that - "to the islands", until the next bull cycle. The sect of "deceived MMM depositors" scatters. The wrapper dies definitively.... Altcoins, including HYIP ones, which were created in the last cycle, are all depreciating. Out of the top 100 of the previous capitalization ranking, they depreciate beyond the top 1000. Never recover in capitalization and price not only to bitcoin, but also to the dollar in the future in the next cycle. This is what bitcoin trend cyclicality looks like on a linear price chart
BNC:BLX
by SpartaBTC
41
Bitcoin halving cyclesIt is no secret that bitcoin has been one of the best BITSTAMP:BTCUSD predictors. But when halving cycle factor weakens and a downtrend starts? From the previous halvings it seems that price peak takes place within the next ~500 days from halving. And if we calculate price change between close price of the month in which halving took place and the cycles max price, we can notice that in the next cycle this growth percent is 3-5 times lower that the previous one. Sure, each cycle the more capital comes in and Bitcoin becomes "heavier". Price x2 10 years ago meant like $4 bln. change in market cap, now it is a $2 trln change. Also you can notice that in this halving cycle by the time of the halving price has already made a new ATH. Therefore i think that in this cycle ATH will be 115k-200k, and we need to start taking profits in April-Aug 2025. Let's see how this turns out.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by AlexLukyanin
BTC: Next price Halving 📊Analysis by AhmadArz: #BTCUSD By calculating the price growth in the 4-year halving time frame, we came to the conclusion that with the growth of the Bitcoin market cap, its growth will be halved and we can expect $120,000 from Bitcoin, and it is expected to grow up to 270,000 dollars in halvings. 🔗"Uncover new opportunities in the world of cryptocurrencies with AhmadArz. 💡Join us on TradingView and expand your investment knowledge with our five years of experience in financial markets." 🚀Please boost and💬 comment to share your thoughts with us!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ahmadarz
🔍 Bitcoin Halving 2024: Unraveling the Next Big Rally🔥CRYPTO:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT COINBASE:BTCUSD Hello dear traders. With only 17 days left until the monumental #Halving2024 event ⏳, the anticipation within the crypto community is palpable. Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ), the trailblazer of cryptocurrencies, is already trading above its All-Time High (ATH), signaling a market that is ripe with optimism. But the real spectacle? It's just on the horizon. 65K is my ideal support for further corrections. Follow me for more insights ... 🚀🌕 📈 What to Expect? Historically, Bitcoin undergoes a halving event every four years, a process that cuts the mining reward in half. This deflationary mechanism reduces the new supply of Bitcoin, potentially leading to an uptick in price as demand continues to rise against a limited supply. The aftermath of past halvings has witnessed substantial rallies, and the question now is, not if, but how high will CRYPTOCAP:BTC soar post-Halving2024? 🔑 Key Insights: Our analysis delves deep into the historical data, comparing pre and post-halving market behavior. The patterns observed suggest a 'wild mode' activation for Bitcoin, often kickstarting a major bull run. But what makes this halving event different? With CRYPTOCAP:BTC already above its ATH, the stage is set for unprecedented growth. 💹 🧐 The Break Point: The Halving Event is often regarded as a Break Point for Bitcoin, a transformative phase that catapults it into a new valuation territory. Our projections, rooted in sophisticated economic models and historical trend analysis, point towards a bullish explosion that could redefine market expectations. 🌐 📊 Strategy for Investors: The countdown to the halving is a critical period for investors. Being early in accumulating CRYPTOCAP:BTC and altcoins could position you advantageously for the impending rally. Our advice? Don't wait for the market to move post-halving. The opportunity is now. Accumulate, diversify, and prepare for the ride of a lifetime. 📈 💥Be Part of the Revolution: #Bitcoin's halving is not just an event; it's a testament to the resilience and revolutionary nature of cryptocurrencies. Join us as we navigate through these exciting times, armed with data-driven insights and a community of passionate investors. Whether you're a seasoned trader or new to the crypto space, now is the time to be part of something extraordinary. Let's embrace the future, together. 🚀🌕 #Halving2024 | #BTC | #CryptoRally
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by CrazyS
2
Blast breakout, retest needed before 220% targetAnalysis: BLAST has broken out of the wedge, which suggests a potential rally. Post-breakout, we often see a retest of the upper boundary of the wedge, which could offer a strong confirmation of the breakout. After the retest, price is expected to rally back towards the top of the pattern. Entry Point: DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) Entry Zone: Marked around $0.01012, this was an optimal entry point for traders looking to go long as the breakout began. It allowed traders to accumulate gradually as the price confirmed the wedge breakout. Take Profit Levels: Take Profit 1: Set at $0.01942, offering a 150% gain from the wedge breakout. This is the first major target, where traders could consider taking partial profits. Take Profit 2: Positioned at $0.02469, representing a 220% gain from the wedge breakout. This level aligns with further resistance and could act as a final target for this trade. Conclusion: The chart suggests a strong bullish move following the breakout of the descending wedge. Targets of 150% and 220% gains are set, with a potential retest of the wedge boundary before a further rally. For those who missed the initial entry, keeping an eye on the retest for a new entry opportunity is crucial.
by Blockbullder
Remember! Remember! The 5th of November!Thursday... the 5th of November 2020... CRYPTOCAP:BTC pumped nearly 7% in one day. We were 30ish days into the parabolic phase of the 3rd bull cycle for #Bitcoin. It was trading at $14,911. The holders had no idea that CRYPTOCAP:BTC would continue to climb an additional 335% over another 5 months, reaching a local ATH of $64,895 on April 14th 2021. Here we are on September 6th, 2024. CRYPTOCAP:BTC dropped to $52,546 or (-3.8%) for the day. Septembers are a sore subject when it comes to financial markets and Bitcoin in particular. Across the Post-Halving years, CRYPTOCAP:BTC will drop -2% historically. Considering CRYPTOCAP:BTC has tested local lows across the 5th and 6th of the last 3 months; July 5-6th low: $53,499 August 5-6th low: $49,050 September 5-6th low: $52,546 (so far) It is almost like someone is trolling the Holders... The focus of this chart is to consider the above and the following. Have we found our local bottom this early in September? ($52,546) How will Bitcoin react to the upcoming 25 bps Fed Rate cut? ($50,000 vs $60,000) Will our price position entering the parabolic phase affect the overall gains over the next 6 months? (90% vs 480%) Where will our new ATH fall next April/May? ($100,000 vs $305,000) Let me know how bearish or bullish you think the future of Bitcoin is.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by RILOBUYLOW
BTC/USD bowl. Breakthrough 64-72. Cyclicality. Nasdaq - BTC.Logarithm. Completion time 1 week. Instead of updating an old idea regarding the Nasdaq Index and BTS on pump cup formation published on 06/17/2023, I decided to implement the idea on a live chart. Comparative analysis. Fractal. Lag. Bitcoin and Nasdaq 17 06 2023 I have applied the cup percentages as well as the cup with handle if formation occurs (high probability). Although the cycle high targets and timing are the same as what I showed in 2022 during the Bitcoin accumulation phase. So, for clarity with the last cycle and its highs in 2021. BTC/USD Secondary trend cycles and halvings . 1 07 2022 BTC/USD Halving 518 When will be the cycle price low and high. 02.09.2023 BTC/USD Main trend (3 years) Channels Triangle 09 2023 At the moment, the price is above the “demons of Solomon” zone, that is 72,000. Zone 64-72 – resistance of the large bowl (last cycle highs 64-69). Let's follow the fractal similarity of 2015-2017. There is a high probability that a rollback will occur slightly higher, and a long-term bullish formation will be formed (trend direction, large time frame) — “Bowl with handle”. Or straight to the psychological level of 100?). Pay attention to interest rates and price levels in the past and now. 1️⃣ Let me remind you that in April the halving is closer to the 20th. Most likely this will happen on the day "18" . Do you think that bitCocaine will cost 84,018 closer to this time?) What will happen to this zone? 2️⃣ Psychological PR level - the zone for Bitcoin is $100,013. 3️⃣ Everything else probably looks unreal for most market participants, but what is shown now is real, just as it was a very long time ago. Adhere to these simple rules: 1) Understand and exploit the cyclical nature of the market. 2) Buy low, sell high. And not vice versa like most). 3) Take profits in parts on the hype (now) in a growing trend or protect with a stop loss. 4) Have an understanding of the relationship between the liquidity (capitalization, roughly speaking) of a trading instrument and its volatility and potential. 5) If you trade locally. The crowd is shouting: “cryptocurrency is a scam” - buy it. “Crypto hype” - sell it. 6) Do not be interested in the news and the opinion of the majority, this is all “taken into account in the price movement schedule.” 7) Always have at least 20-30% of stablecoins in reserve. If, for example, in a developing trend there is a correction to quickly remove longs (futures, margin with large shoulders, in spot - stop loss) by a significant%, and some of your stops do not work due to price slippage, then a “cash airbag” will calm and warm you in such an unpleasant moment).
CME:BTC1!Long
by SpartaBTC
6
$BTC - SHOULD WE BUY OR SELL BITCOIN 2024?Let's face the truth which is Bitcoin moves on big whales' decisions ( Exchanges, Companies & Governments ). To sell a big amount of Bitcoins, you have to handle a buyer ( a Whale ) to negotiate the price and of course it all happens on exchanges. Most of small traders and investors have no idea of what will happen next months, all the data is being handled between exchanges and companies, so we are trying to forecast what will happen with the Bitcoin prices in the next months, and guess what, we could fail and stuck with highest prices for the next years ( I mean the next Bitcoin Halving 2028 ). If we take a look on monthly Bitcoin chart, we see big pumps and dumps. The big dumps happened when Bitcoin had crossed up 65,000 levels ( I mean the real confirmed orders NOT bots ) and The demand increased when Bitcoin had crossed down 30,000 - 25,000 levels. What We Expect: Big pumps and dumps will happen as a SNAP at unexpected time. Who bought at 15,000 and 24,000 levels needs to confirm their profits in USD. We could see Bitcoin at 100,000 supported with small orders ( Bots ) but the real buyer have a big order at 65,000 - 50,000 levels, so catching these orders are profitable for the sellers who bought at 16,000 - 22,000 levels. Eventually, Bitcoin is the backbone of crypto market. It will back to below 40k levels not for me or you but for the liquidation to start a new cycle. If you are a long-term investor , wait the lowest prices below 40,000 levels. If you are a pro-trader , you can do scalping trading while Bitcoin above 40,000 at your own risk. Have a good day and don't invest more than you can afford to lose.
by b4sk
2
Monthly Chart path for BTC 👩‍🚀HalvingIt's been a long while since I posted one of these so here goes! This is an updated monthly overview on the idea path for the Halving event, many people have their opinion and they have some great points to where it may or maynot be headed. So here is my entry to where it may likely start the full process for the halving to work it's way to the 120k or 200k range. Please be respectful in the comments and happy trading. It took sometime to create the paths for it but here is my thoughts on the event, expect to drop as low as 50k to 45k up until june 1st. that's when the possible buildup for the event will take place. the market has to count all the orders but likely they'll be some great resistance to prevent further bleed-out but likely will fall to the 50k BTC - .00001200 for shib, before suddenly skyrocketing to the 70 - 80k or 90 to 120k as told by the events amount to be expected is 120k. Note: it will either sit there for a short time before falling back to the 80k - 60k - range while resistance will be present the price correction will be a straight flat line to the lows of possible 20k to 10k BTC levels. this is due to Whales making a "sell all play" on BTC and shib cashing in on the millions obtained, and much of the market will likely do the same, as they see a new type of crypto winter. take over the market until early september 2025. This is only speculation but this is also from experience with both cryptos the whales will make that sell-off happen and it will be painful to everyone holding come sept 9th this year. So buy which crypto you want around June or now if you like, hold for the time being and wait for the event to build from the fresh entry it takes about a month or even two months to see results. The only thing that could delay or derail this - would be if the Federal Reserve Bank decided to do price hikes within the months of June and October 2024, hopefully that won't be the case. BTC WEEKLY CHART Halving event. I hope this helps answer any of your questions.
Long
by Grandmaster_Oz
8
BTC Halving Protectory- Short-term sell opportunityIn this video, I shared my view on BTC after the halving event. I anticipate a bearish move towards last weeks low. Price below this low would provide an opportunity for long term buyers to add new positions to their portfolio. The potential move towards this low will provide an opportunity for short term traders to capitalise from the downwards move. Let me know your thoughts and would love to share more of mine in the future so feel free to follow my page.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Pips4Breakfastx
Halving Effects | Bitcoin Miners Are Selling LessThe most recent halving took place on April 19th of this year. The event was highly anticipated, and excitement about it led to Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high ahead of the halving. While the excitement has died down somewhat, we'd like to draw your attention to the fact that the halving is a matter of fundamentals (not hype), and we can measure the impact of it using on-chain data. The current yearly inflation rate for MIL:BTC is 1.66%, which puts it at a lower inflation rate than the target inflation rate for most Western countries for the first time. The lower inflation rate means miners earn fewer rewards in MIL:BTC , theoretically decreasing selling pressure from new coins entering circulation. If we look at the miner outflows for this year, we can observe a decrease in miner outflows starting in March. This likely has to do with miners holding on to their rewards ahead of the halving. Following the halving, miner outflows have kept decreasing and are approaching historically low levels. As a result, the share of volume coming from miners has also decreased since the halving. This data suggests that we're seeing the first results from the halving coming into play. We recommend keeping an eye on this indicator and on the total miner reserves, also available trough Tradingview.
INTOTHEBLOCK:BTC_MINEROUTFLOWSLong
by IntoTheBlock
Why Bitcoin's Halving Won't Save You if the Economy Goes Down As we navigate through an increasingly volatile economic landscape, similarities between the current market behavior and the period preceding the COVID-19 market crash have begun to surface, particularly concerning Bitcoin ( INDEX:BTCUSD ). This analysis delves into these parallels and discusses why the upcoming Bitcoin halving might not be the safety net investors hope for if a major economic downturn occurs. Historical Insights: The 2020 Pre-Halving Crash Back in early 2020, just before Bitcoin's much-anticipated halving, the cryptocurrency market experienced one of its most drastic crashes. Bitcoin's value plummeted by 41% in a single day, underscoring the rapid sentiment shift among investors from greed to fear. Notably, our Trend Model had signaled an exit from the market two weeks prior to this crash, prompted not by foreknowledge of the pandemic but by bearish behaviour on Bitcoin. At the time, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index was at a mere 39 out of 100, highlighting a market driven by fear— suggesting an oversold market. Current Market Conditions and Sentiment Fast forward to today, the echoes of the past resonate as the same indices and models show similar ominous signs. With geopolitical tensions escalating and the risk of major conflicts looming, our Trend Model recently signalled another exit. Interestingly, the current market sentiment, with a Fear and Greed Index score of 72, indicates a stark contrast: traders remain optimistic despite the negative price trends—a risky disconnect that could precede significant market corrections. Major market influencers continue to advocate bullish perspectives, with some viewing market dips as buying opportunities and others speculating about market manipulations linked to new ETF launches in Hong Kong. The general consensus among these influencers is that the impending halving will bolster Bitcoin prices. However, a closer look at historical data and market behavior suggests otherwise. The Halving: A Misunderstood Phenomenon The halving certainly impacts Bitcoin by reducing the reward for mining new blocks, theoretically increasing scarcity. However, the effect is neither immediate nor strong enough to counteract significant market downturns. After the 2020 halving, Bitcoin prices didn’t soar; instead, they entered a prolonged period of stagnation lasting 72 days. This historical precedent illustrates that halving does not inherently create upward price pressure but rather contributes to a slow, often muted, impact on the market. Technical Analysis and Future Predictions Applying Fibonacci Retracement to the current weekly Bitcoin charts suggests potential price corrections with levels possibly dipping between $38,000 and $45,000. Further analysis through the Limited Growth Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model indicates that Bitcoin is currently overbought. A retracement to $45,000 would align with this model’s estimation of Bitcoin's fair value. Conclusion: Navigating Uncertainty with Data While the hope for a market recovery persists, relying on the halving to safeguard Bitcoin investments in a turbulent economy is misguided. Our historical data and trend analysis underline the importance of cautious and informed trading strategies. Just as our model successfully predicted exits before major market crashes, including the COVID-19 downturn, Luna crash, and FTX collapse, it continues to guide us through these uncertain times. Investors would do well to remember that external factors such as geopolitical developments or economic crises can dwarf the effects of the halving, leading to sharp price declines. In this context, understanding and respecting the data’s warning signs is crucial for navigating the markets effectively, ensuring that decisions are based on insight rather than optimism.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by AlgoAlpha
4
BTC Long term predictions On the weekly timeframe these are my potential price paths leading up to and beyond the all important halving. Using the volume profile indicator, it's possible to see where the highest volume areas are during the way down from the 69k all time high. These areas are where price will usually reach congestion where large orders are being defend and or added to in order to try and push price back in the original direction. As shown BTC is currently inside a Bearish Orderblock and waiting for price to react off of it, and how Bitcoin reacts leads me to the 3 paths I have predicted: Bullish Path - If btc flips this bearish OB and retests it with a confirmation as new support, next stop is 38k where the volume profile shows an area of high volume, and therefor resistance as the last time we were at this level the imbalance on the orderbook sent price lower. As price continues to retake previous bearish OB's and turning them into bullish ones by the time the next halving comes around we should be poised to look forward to retaking the ATH. Neutral Path - I think the middle and most balanced of the 3 outcomes would make the most sense to me given the economic macro environment with the threat of recession looming over the crypto industry, but also the majority of the downtrend is over from the bear market, Btc dropped 77% from its high and although its possible to drop further it's inline with bear markets in the past. Bearish Path - The bearish outcome leading up to and beyond is the current OB rejects price and sends it back to the POC (point of control) which would really hurt the market but isn't out of the question given the lack of available disposable income and free credit to invest going into the later months of 2023. Unfortunately this is quite likely in my opinion. However, the halving event that takes place this time next year has always started rally's in price, and last Bullrun began just before a halving event. So in conclusion HTF chop and then rally into the halving and beyond.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ProR35
Where does the Bitcoin downtrend continue to?Hello dear friends, I hope you're doing well. Before delving into Solana and Bitcoin analysis, let me reiterate two important points for newcomers and myself: 1. If you haven't profited from market dips or experienced severe liquidation, take a few days off from the market. 2. Avoid entering the market for revenge, as emotional decisions could lead to further losses. As you can see, Bitcoin experienced an 18% drop from the $73,600 ceiling and reached a support level of $60,000. The question arises: Is the $60,000 range an attractive zone for market makers or major players? My answer is a resounding no, for several reasons. As I've mentioned before, the $60,000 range serves more as a psychological barrier than a significant support level. Market makers reinforce this range so you can comfortably take long positions at $20k, $40k, or $80k without worry, or even go full margin long. In my opinion, the $60,000 range is the biggest bull trap that market makers have set for us. Within less than a week before the halving, the $60,000 range has been strongly supported, but 8 to 10 days later, CZ's criminal sentencing area awaits us. Considering the current dominance of Tether and the breakdown of the rising wedge bearish pattern, we could look to open short positions in the $64,500 to 68,000$ range. The likelihood of this scenario playing out is very high. ------------- Here are the potential scenarios for Tether's dominance: 1. A move of 4.7%, breaking the resistance at 5% and reaching the 5.85 range, which is the channel's midpoint. 2. A correction to the 4.5 to 4.36% range to complete the upward pullback, followed by a move towards the 5.85 range, which is the channel's midpoint. Therefore, we conclude that Tether's dominance is very bullish. It's likely that the $60,000 support range will be broken, and the price will drop to $45,000 (the 5.85 USDT.D range). ------------- The Elliott Wave count I conducted in the previous analysis on the RSI indicator is nearing completion. Wave A has been completed. ------------- I'd be happy to share your opinion with me. Your likes, follows, and comments give me energy.
by Sadegh_Sh
10
#Bitcoin has reached its all-time high and faced rejection, so wUsing a technical indicator called the Wyckoff method, I've created a chart for you. Currently in phase C, we expect Bitcoin to retest its all-time high and reach overbought levels before experiencing a deep correction. Apart from the Wyckoff method, in Elliott Wave Theory, we also anticipate the completion of the fifth wave, which is the internal wave of the fifth wave. As Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high, we expect altcoins to enthusiastically follow this rise and create FOMO in the market. When the entire market reaches overbought territory, it's time for investors to consider turning to cash. While the testing range for Bitcoin is between $74k and $75k, with FOMO, we might see a maximum deviation of up to 5%, but I don't expect more in this cycle. The chart drawn will be invalidated if daily closes fall below $60k. Stay tuned for more detailed analyses ;)
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by btc_melih