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Halving2024

Bitcoin Halving Bullish? - Reevaluating trend impactBitcoin halving, an event intrinsic to its protocol, serves as a quintessential pillar in understanding the behavior of this leading cryptocurrency. Bitcoin halving refers to the halving of rewards that miners receive for processing transactions, which takes place approximately every four years (or every 210,000 blocks). This distinctive event has traditionally been viewed as a bullish catalyst, largely due to its effect on the supply and demand dynamics of Bitcoin. By essentially reducing the rate at which new Bitcoins are created and consequently, the inflation rate, it can exert upward pressure on Bitcoin's price. However, this perspective, which posits that Bitcoin halving invariably leads to a bull market, might require reassessment. The crypto sphere has evolved significantly since the inception of Bitcoin, with increased market understanding and awareness. If the majority of investors anticipate a surge in Bitcoin's price following the halving, this could potentially trigger a "front run", where the price hike occurs much earlier due to early purchases, followed by a massive sell-off at the time of the halving itself. In previous cycles, such preemptive market activity was less common due to a dearth of data and historical precedents. This limited investors' confidence in predicting the post-halving market trend, often leading to unexpected and pleasantly surprising bull runs spurred by the reduced inflation of Bitcoin emission. In today's more mature market, we may witness a shift in these dynamics, given the wealth of historical data available and the widespread understanding of Bitcoin halving events. Thus, while the halving continues to play a pivotal role in Bitcoin's economic model, its market implications may no longer be as straightforward as in the past. It becomes vital, therefore, for investors to scrutinize these changing patterns and adapt their strategies accordingly.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by AutomatedTradingAlgorithms
The Bitcoin Halving Cycle 2024The occurrence of a Bitcoin halving event refers to a significant reduction, usually every four years, in the reward granted to Bitcoin miners. Historical data and the Bitcoin price chart reveal distinct patterns of how the halving event impacts the value of Bitcoin, leading to the formation of what is known as the Bitcoin halving cycle. The Bitcoin Halving Cycle is visually represented in the chart above, which showcases a log-scale weekly candlestick chart depicting the price of Bitcoin. This chart highlights the consistent pattern of the three distinct phases, namely the bull market, bear market, stagnation/recovery period or range and accumulation phase, that occur within each cycle. Within the depicted chart, different coloured boxes symbolise specific market phases. The light green box signifies the bull market, while the red box represents the bear market. The yellow box indicates the recovery phase. Inside the yellow box, three additional boxes are displayed. The blue box represents the initial accumulation stage following the bear market. The lime green box signifies a period of expansion, and the orange box represents a subsequent ranging period, which can be viewed as a second stage of accumulation. Analysing the Bitcoin price chart, we can observe that a typical Bitcoin halving cycle on average unfolds as follows: a one and half year bull market, followed by a one-year bear market, and finally a one and half year period of stagnation (range and accumulation). Bitcoin is currently in its fourth halving cycle, and can be considered in the ranging and accumulation cycle. During these stages of the cycle in Bitcoin's history, price has reached its 0.786 fibonacci retracement at least once when measuring this from the peak of the bull market stage to the trough of the Bear cycle. (blue horizontal line) If history rhymes, Bitcoins's price has the potential to reach $52,000 USD from now or until the next halving date.
BNC:BLXLong
by Kinoko_zoku
3
TOTAL Market Cap and Volumes indicatorsHow has Volume changed over the years? Crypto TOTAL Market Cap and Volume The vertical lines are key moments in TOTAL PA Starting back in 2017 and again in July 2019, Note how the volume on the Standard VOLUME indicator ( right under PA ) would seem as expected. It increased steadily Till Jan '21 and has been decreasing since, despite a New ATH in Nov '21 Below that is the VAPI ( Volume Accumulation Percentage Indicator) Note how VAPI was DECREASING before the ATH '17 and High that followed. That then happens again in Nov 2021 In #BTC push since Jan '23 the peak was late Jan and has been decreasing since even though we hit a high on PA in April Worth learning about in detail Then the OBV (On-balance volume) this is fairly straight forward an o real surprises. It was rising till May '21, Dipped and came back up for the Nov '21 ATH. and has been decreasing since. It is easy to read but sometimes can be misleading as we see from above. BUT note how the lower MA's in this indicator "Spike" just before a change of trend MVRV - Z Score (Market Value to Realised Value Ratio) This is NOT Volume based but works well with the VAPI and VFI This one is also worth you Looking into in detail Tends to Peak and retrace before ATH also VFI ( Volume Flow indicator) This is possibly one of my favourites. Very easy, From 2017 ATH, rapid Drop below ZERO line and then back up to next high in July '19 - ranged pretty well above 0 till Jan '20 and then rose till reached Top in Jan '21 and stayed there till ATH. It has been descending ever since For Me VAPI and VFI work well and using the MVRV Z just adds a cushion of info that adds up Using these to project forwards ( which is never recommended but I like living dangerously ) it is very possible that we will not start heading towards a New ATH until we reach the ZERO line on the VFI in Sept this year. September is not normally a great month so this could be the Turn around month and Oct is lift off ? This projection also works for the "Waterline" on the Z score to bounce off- last time it did that was March '20, that is if it falls through the line of support it is currently on Very hard to do a projection on the OBV but the VAPI does also suggest that in Sept this year, it may have reached a Max downside And Now, I HAVE to say, This could all be So completely Wrong and we could see something completely different and it is highly likely given the current Fundamentals in the world But at the same time, We have the expected date of Halving in April '24 and the run up begins anywhere from 300 day before ( around now ) , with the next ATH up to 500 days after Halving SO, Anything can happen from now till April '24, its just things maybe different this time ? Or will PA begin its push up soon and th eidea of Sep is in fact, a "Dead" Zone during that climb up ? Time Will tell This is NOT advice, Just a thinking cap Enjoy
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by Orriginal
$BTC -The Future to Come (SEC FUD)- Today, June 10th, 2023, CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2 Altcoins are being smacked to the face with the least of shame from Bitcoin's Dominance ! CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D has increased intra-day at 2% with BITMEX:XBT dropping as much as 3.5 %. When compared to Altcoins CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2 , Bitcoin's dump so far for the day looks not as bad in terms of % negative depth. With just approximately 320 Days left, Fourth Halvening is around the corner. This may be a decent time to load up on some Altcoins Accumulation. As always, using proper risk management into positioning one's self-portfolio. It looks to me, like a decent spot to accumulate Long Term, despite more downfall fear concerns. TRADE SAFE *** Note that this is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research and consult your Financial Advisor before partaking in any trading activity based solely on this Idea.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Mr_J__fx
Bitcoin - Secret trendline from 2013 is breaking down! (unreal) I never talk with empty words, and in this analysis I will give you the main reason why bitcoin could crash to 15k - 10k in the next few months. No one talks about this trendline from 2013, so it's a big deal. The trendline is already broken, and the bulls retested it a couple weeks ago. It's a classic retest. Usually, you want to wait for the retest and then short it. I want to tell you that this trendline is parabolic, and if it is reclaimed and followed, then theoretically, the price of Bitcoin will be around 5 000 000 dollars in 2030. This is unlikely. This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately. What's more, the 200-week moving average has been broken for the first time (a negative sign). We still need to wait almost a year for this halving event. Meanwhile, we could experience a huge flash crash to liquidate high-leverage traders with a strong and steep rebound back to 32k. Bitcoin is very volatile, and a 50% or 80% crash is nothing. January 2024 could be the bottom for Bitcoin. Shorting Bitcoin is pretty good because it provides a very good risk-to-reward ratio compared to other altcoins on the weekly chart. It's because your profit on shorts practically cannot be more than 99.99% compared to your profit on longs, where your profit is unlimited. Your stop loss on BTC short could be, for example, 5% and on altcoins, 20%, with the same trade setup and same strategy, so it improves your risk-to-reward ratio on Bitcoin shorts. Thank you, and for more ideas, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
196
Bitcoin- real short setup Hello Traders, here is the full analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied. Please also refer to the Important Risk Notice linked below. No one talks about this trendline from 2013, so it's a big deal. The trendline is already broken, and the bulls retested it a couple weeks ago. It's a classic retest. Usually, you want to wait for the retest and then short it. want to tell you that this trendline is parabolic, and if it is reclaimed and followed, then theoretically, the price of Bitcoin will be around 5 000 000 dollars in 2030. This is unlikely. We still need to wait almost a year for this halving event. Meanwhile, we could experience a huge flash crash to liquidate high-leverage traders with a strong and steep rebound back to 32k. Bitcoin is very volatile, and a 50% or 80% crash is nothing Thank you, and for more ideas, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by bullstraders7
Where to buy and when is the halving .. LISTENOkay everyone listen carefully please like and comment of any of your opinions. USA and globally is not in a very good shape as we speak. In US 3 banks collapsed and then other few banks collapsed as well; Federal chairman Powell has two choices.. he ether will cut the interest rates and pause interest rate this year and start the money print.. and just watch more other banks collapse or 2 they can just keep raising interest rates to stick of the plan if it is the the inflation will go wild and go higher and higher and everything will be even more expensive than before. Fundamental Financial Recession is coming as we speak. Bitcoin has NOT hit the bottom and bull run is not here so please stop saying bullrun because lots of things are happening even nuclear war is coming as well. I know you don’t like bad news and so don’t I .. everyone don’t like bad news. Bitcoin hit the resistance but no choice to down drop and go new lows in order to hit 35K after the top hits from 35K bitcoin will be heading to the bottom, should expect bottom is in few months before the bitcoin halving in 2024. My bottom prediction is 13-10K if not then 8000-5000. Those are the bottomed with strong ground floor support; until any of those 4 bottom is in then bullrun will return strong and full breakout from there before bitcoin halving. Bitcoin halving should be expecting in April in 2024 very early in a morning; during bitcoin night drop a bit and attack upside green to breakout a lot faster. Please save the date of the bitcoin halving and it’s better to buy before 2023 is over until we welcome 2024. Hope this helps and do your thing, let’s get rich and have a bless day.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by JoyBoyVegae
2
BTC Wyckoff AccumulationNotice: Since January 16th I have charted out this possible Wyckoff accumulation schematic. I have only updated the supply and demand boxes to justify the moves that have happened, but the pathway hasn't been touched. With this most recent push up to 26k I thought now was the time to publish this idea. BTC is at a point where my idea is either invalidated or it will continue to playout until it is invalidated. A weekly close above the weekly swing high will change my expectations for this chart, but could still have a similar pathway. If we get a close above, then we will have an actual market structure shift on the weekly since the bear market started. At that point I would be looking for a double bottom and the lows to be revisited, or possibly a sweep of the lows were we never get a close below. If we don't get a close above then this idea is still in play and I will be looking for the "Sell in May" to start to bring the market down, apathy to kick in and people to stop caring for a little while. Summer Lull will continue to bring the market lower, with a rally here or there but ultimately the downtrend to stay intact. Coming into Aug/September, a bottom to be formed and wash out all the bulls that were calling for the bottom to already be in. Nov/Dec we can get our Q4 rally heading into the new year where we could see an actual change in market sentiment, just in time for the FED to start QE and heading into the halving where we will see the start of a new bull market. This chart takes wyckoff and pairs it with seasonality and the current market conditions that makes sense to me. Everyone seems to not want to take the current macro economic conditions going on into consideration. This idea I believe does.
by snh6227
What is Bitcoin Halving?Bitcoin halving is a significant event on the Bitcoin network every four years. During this event, the block reward that miners receive for verifying transactions and adding new blocks to the blockchain is reduced by 50%. This means that the rate of new Bitcoin creation slows down, and the total supply of Bitcoin approaches its maximum limit of 21 million. Bitcoin halving is a programmed event and is built into the Bitcoin protocol to ensure that the inflation rate of Bitcoin remains controlled and predictable. The reduced rate of new Bitcoin creation and the expectation of scarcity can increase the value of Bitcoin, which has historically led to an increase in the asset's price in the months leading up to a halving event. Despite this, the market can be unpredictable, and the impact of halving Bitcoin's price is not guaranteed. However, the reduced supply of Bitcoin resulting from halving helps to maintain its value and ensure that it remains a finite and scarce asset. The previous Bitcoin halving occurred on May 11, 2020, at a block height of 630,000. At that time, the block reward for miners was reduced from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC per block. This was the third halving event in Bitcoin's history, following the first halving in November 2012 and the second halving in July 2016. The next Bitcoin halving is expected to occur in march 2024, at which point the block reward will be reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. After the first Bitcoin halving in November 2012, the price of Bitcoin increased by over 8,000% over the following year. After the second halving in July 2016, the price of Bitcoin increased by around 2,500% over the following 18 months. After the most recent halving event in May 2020, the price of Bitcoin initially experienced a slight drop but quickly recovered and went on to gain over 300% in value over the following year, reaching an all-time high of over $64,000 in April 2021. Thanks Hexa
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INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by HexaTrades
19
$BTC - will this rally continue to 69k ? Hello my Fellow TraderZ, Here, I have brought up with some unique observation. You see { 1 } when in 2015, price marked its bottom. S.Rsi on Monthly from the moment it gave Bullish C.O. until it crosses the mark of 80 on S.Rsi. The price surged upto 233% from the bottom while it takes around 10 Monthly candles(303 Days). { 2 }, In 2019, from JAN 2019 to JULY 2019, S.Rsi showed similar movement while the price of #BITCOIN surged up to 350% from it bottom in 181 Days. { 3 }, The present scenario is the 3rd one. S.Rsi has finally give its Bullish C.O. and if we take the rising percentage similar to 2019 , we may see a test of the previous All Time High to 69K, which is ~ 300% from the recent BOTTOM. I am assuming this to take place somewhere between 6-10 months citing previous Trends which comes around the Pre-Halving Period(#2024) supporting Halving Theory satisfies #BTC Bull Cycle. If such happens, welcome to the party of Blasts in #CRYPTO. *Note : this is completely my speculation and #NFA. CHEERS!!!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TRADER-GOKU
2
Fourth HalvingSometime in early Q2 of 2024 the Bitcoin network will experience it's fourth supply cut, Economically I am seeing rapid cooldown of inflation with month over month inflation currently sitting at -0.10 month over month 5 year forward expectation rate of inflation as of today is currently sitting at 2.16 only 16 basis points away from 2% target in my opinion inflation should level off in about 1 and a half months from now maybe around end of Q1 but in the immediate term we are also facing a debt ceiling crisis where the debt ceiling will need to be raised or suspended by the end of next week. additionally short term government bonds are yielding higher than the long term government bonds specifically the 2 month is yielding higher than the 2 year bond the situation is an inverted yield curve during a liquidity crunch therefore in my opinion this places Bitcoin in a 2015 situation and I expect long term logarithmic growth and the occasional aggressive parabola ***Not financial advice always do your own research educational purposes only under the right of fair use***
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by ILL_Midas
The Birth of a new Bitcoin CycleHello Folks, it's been 2,5 years since I predicted in May 2020 that Bitcoin will reach 70-150K when the price of Bitcoin was below 10K. I now believe that Bitcoin Circle 4 has started. Let me explain why! I did this using historic data of Bitcoin and it's halving dates of its 4 cycles. Bitcoin halvings used to have an extreme influence on the price as it made it harder for miners to acquire BTC rewards for mining which they subsequently released on the market, causing the price to drop when BTC supply was relatively thin. Now with most of BTC's maximum supply already circulating, miners releasing their BTC rewards into the market is just like a drop in the ocean. That means, that halvings are mostly psychological events for the BTC price which fundamentally don't influence Bitcoin much other than dropping its hashrate for a short amount of time and making the business of miners less profitable, causing many of them to stop operations and increasing market share for the more established miners. Nevertheless, Bitcoin halvings do have a psychological effect on the market that is sticking: A couple weeks after every halving BTC started its halving run, catapulting the BTC price to new highs in the timespan of roughly a year before collapsing 80-90% again to start a new cycle. Due to trades trading accordingly and the severe psychological effects of these swings I excpect those 4 year cycles to continue. For comparison, here is how the halving runs (HR) and their aftermath of every cycle looked like: HR Cycle 1 HR Cycle 2 HR Cycle 3 At the end of Cycle 3 I overlayed the performances of Cycle 1 - Cycle 2 (purple) and Cycle 2 - Cycle 3 (blue) to the top of our HR circle top 3 (green). HR 1 top -> low occured after 411 days from top. HR 2 top -> low occured after 363 days from top. Our current top (9th of November 2022) -> low occured 364 days from top, pretty much matching HR2 top and also its timeframe from BTC halving date to top (HR2 was 556 days, HR3 was 548 days). That HR3 low was slightly broken 1,5 weeks later on the 21st of November but can be considered a soft double bottom. According to the paths of Cycle 1-2 and Cycle 2-3 we should be heading to 30-50K in the next 6-12 months before retracing to 20-30K. After that, it will be the run-up to the halving run. The date of the next Bitcoin halving is still unknown. At the time of the making of this chart it was scheduled to be May 2 2024, right now it's scheduled to be on March 17 2024 due to hash rate increases. As I expect some miners to stop operations till then, the date might move back a couple weeks or months again. In this chart I still use May 2 2024. as we get close to the halving date I will a djust my chart accordingly and publish an update. Using history data and calculating possibilites I came up with a path for the next halving run: I estimate for Bitcoin to top out around 120K. However, as we can't predict the future, the real number might rather be between 80K-170K. Disclaimer: As always, nothing is guaranteed. Bitcoin might change its behavior completely somewhen. This is a calculation on how things went in the past - past performances can never guarantee future performances.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by The_Silen
5
BITCOIN Halving cycles and Pump %Monthly #Bitcoin chart with Halving dates what is notable is how much the % increase in PA has been dropping each halving. 2012 Halving 10K% rise after 2016 Halving 3,5K% rise after 2020 Halving 700 % rise after Projected PA below would also be 700% BUT, Bitcoin is far more public now and the Halving Pumps will be talked about aLot. Could the Next halving actually be pumped a Lot earlier than previous dates May well be a great idea to grab your NOW..because the price WILL go mental as the world sees the TradFi recession also. 2024 is going to be an interesting year to say the least
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
2
Bitcoin Outlook: 2023 - 2025My outlook for the Bitcoin price for the next 2+ years in detail: - End of 2022 - Q1 2023: I think this will be the time where we see Bitcoin make a last low around $10,000 - $14,000. ((Accumulation)) - Mid 2023: I think we will see some volatility (50-80%) with possible prices of $25,000 - $28,000. Bear Market rally as 2019, nothing sustainable. ((Taking some of the table)) - Summer 2023: Due to the announcement of a recession I guess we will revisit our previous low, or even make a new low ($10,000 - $14,000). This will be our last flush before the next Bitcoin halving and the bull market. ((Accumulate again)) - Q4 2023 - Q1 2024: This will be our grind to the 2023 high (around $25,000 - $28,000 as previously mentioned) ((Enjoy your filled bags)) - Q2 2024 - Q4 2024: Full on Bull Market where we will see a 6 figure Bitcoin and prices as high as $140,000 - $160,000. (A 10x move from the lows) ((Start taking profits)) - 2025: The next Bear Market will start. ------------------------------------------------ *Not Financial Advice, just my 2 cents*
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by JorenCornelis
10