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Halving2024

BITCOIN overview March 25, 2024Hello traders! The new halving event is being closer and closer, and as we previously saw at this events, we can expect the price creating an all time high, again. Until then, the price is retesting once again a strong zone of support, which was acting as resistance at the all time high back in 2017 and 2019, and we can expect some accumulation in this zone, after which the price to move horizontally until March 2024, when an all time high is expected. What's your opinion? Let's discuss!
Long
by m_maia14
4
BTC Next Halving ?Hello everyone, today I would like to share an idea about bitcoin next halving. Can we predict the next halving of bitcoin with the help of previous cycles? A bitcoin halving is scheduled to take place every 210,000 blocks. Three bitcoin halvings have already taken place, one in 2012, 2016, and the last halving in 2020. The bitcoin halving prediction shown above is for the next halving set to occur in 2024. The next bitcoin halving is scheduled to take place at block 840,000 which is predicted to be on Jun 30, 2024. At the bitcoin halving 2024, the bitcoin block reward is scheduled to drop from 6.25 bitcoin per block to 3.125 bitcoin per block. From a technical analysis point of view we could roughly estimate the next halving in August 2024. It is still a bit early to have a precise estimate, at the time of writing this idea we are on November 27, 2022, date at which the market has not yet reached its lowest point. We can see from past data that over the last twelve years August has been more often in the negative than in the positive. In the ten months preceding it, especially April 2024 and May 2024 could be conducive to a potential halving of 2024. The financial markets are cyclical, so there is a good chance that bitcoin will go up at some point, but since it is highly correlated to the S&P500 it could be in 1 month or 10 years. To guarantee that bitcoin could exceed its high would be completely absurd, given the short history we have of bitcoin, the very notion of halving is to be taken with a pinch of salt. Indeed it has only happened three times. The market is very young (less than 20 years) so it is very complicated to predict these cycles. In my opinion, in order to predict the next halving (and although according to me this notion of halving should be taken with a pinch of salt), we should wait to see where our next low will be. Depending on this, we could then observe whether the macroeconomic environment is evolving in a direction favourable to a next bull run. If the low point seems logical (around $12,000), that the environment is favourable to a new bull run and finally that a range break occurs from above $34,000 then it could seem interesting to invest in BTC to aim for $65,000 or even why not a new ATH. I would like to remind you that crypto-currencies are very risky and highly volatile investments. Therefore, for the majority of investors, they should represent less than 5% of their capital. THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. Written by @maxencechachuat on 27 November 2022.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn46586981
6
Bottom is in! Bitcoin hitting 50k in April 2023If we look in the previous bull run, there are few main points: After the breakout of the falling price and weekly RSI resistance, it took BTC approximately 160 days to make a second peak at 0.618 fibo level Such a movement would take us to about 50k at around April 2023 There are actually many similarities - mainly the big channel that the btc stays in the whole time, breaking out only around halving Also, in the previous run, breakout of the falling price and RSI weekly resistance accured at the same time, same as now
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by hnizdos
1
Bitcoin crashing to 11k next month?What if Bitcoin´s fractal from Summer of 2018 is playing out? Bitcoin price action on this *bottom* is looking identical from the past 2018 summer-fall trading period before crashing to its 3.2k level, if this fractal plays out, it would lead to a weakening in price the rest of October to finally capitulate to reach the real bottom around 11k, this could leading to the next bull run after a consolidation on those levels. Of course this is just a speculation but a possible scenario for Bitcoin if 20k is not rejected again this month.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by AMCryptoTrading
10
Alternative perspective - Bitcoin Between $11,000 - $12,000?There are many rabbit holes, fractals & patterns to play around with, but one thing is certain - there are beautiful architectures woven throughout the Bitcoin chart if one has a mind to pick away at it.. It's whispering things to us. It's actually the collective consciousness of all the human brains painting on a canvas..spliced in sections according to the halving cycle and world economics. Sorry, I can't explain the chart much more than to say that non-log fibs applied over log chart in a very creative way has shown me some strange synchronicities that seam to point to a fractally/vertically shrinking and squeezing pattern as larger price thresholds lower the ceiling.. paired with SMAs at 100,200,300,400,500 + VWAP from previous cycle bottom low close and wick low..and Phoenix ascending + some bottom signal dots set based on a 21 day look back..also a the Kaufman moving average seams to cup the balls of the price right as the next halving occurs which is something that could help locate the median resting price of BTC..Playing with charts is as fun as making music to me.. Maybe it's completely wrong..but it's about narrowing down the possible outcomes based on some derived evidence. DYOR
INDEX:BTCUSD
by WillTMoney
1
Bitcoin Heads towards ~100k Double Top - After 2024 HalvingThis idea is just for fun, so what if... -- we do reach or almost reach 100k, but not until after the next halving --we stop there, quickly head back down to around where we are now (24k) -- and then right back to at or near 100k again -- double-top then an extended downtrend until 2028 halving (we don't actually have a date for this yet, just speculating) -- this stops at where we stopped during March 2020's black swan event (maybe this becomes a double-bottom) Then, resume bullishness as we head towards future halvings from now through 2140. Meanwhile, between now and 2024, we do see some correction up into the 35-45k area (give or take), but remain in a long-term downtrend that finally bottoms out around the 16.5k area (wicks could go down to 12-14k-ish).
BNC:BLX
by dudebruhwhoa
3
TA 2022-08-06: BTC Halving Analysis A. What is the Bitcoin halving? 1. The Bitcoin halving is an event where mining rewards are cut in half. 2. The event takes place every four years, according to pre-set rules in Bitcoin's code. B. A brief history 1. 2009 – Bitcoin mining rewards start at 50 BTC per block. 2. 2012 – The first Bitcoin halving reduces mining rewards to 25 BTC. 3. 2016 – In the second halving, mining rewards go down to 12.5 BTC. 4. 2020 – In the third halving, mining rewards drop to 6.25 BTC. 5. 2140 – The 64th and last halving occurs and no new Bitcoin are created.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by yaser_rahmati
3
BTC Elliott Wave Long Term View As far as I know, the Brave New Coin Liquid Index (BLX) has the most complete chart of BTC. Looking at the 1M chart, we can observe that BTC halving events appear to always kick off wave 3 impulses. In the first halving, we can see a blow off top in the minor 5 of intermediate (3). The second halving, takes in minor 1 of intermediate (3) and the third halving also takes place during minor 1 of an intermediate (3). Most counts, regardless of the Elliott Wave pattern interpreted by the Elliotician puts us in a wave (4) either in an expanding flat or a WXY. Both the triangle in (4) and running flat with a leading diagonal in (1) of ((5)) ideas have been invalidated. There are arguments for cycle I being complete but looking at the duration in time of each wave it feels unlikely that this would be the case. Right now, the WXY in intermediate (4) of primary ((5)) is my main count with either the expanding flat or the cycle 1 complete counts being my alternates. As such, I think we have a strong chance of dropping down to around the $17,000-$18,000 before the bull run towards $100,000 begins (123.6-161.8 of the inverse of intermediate (3) and (4)).
BNC:BLX
by HelioHelix
Bitcoin Super CycleHere we can see the PI cycle top flashed early much like 2013 In 2013 it was April fools day when BTC started its correction BTC reached the Center point of logarithmic regression around July 1 This correction was only 3 months in length I do see a similar pattern here, If this plays out like the super cycle in 2013 then my personal targets are: Center of regression July 2021 second PI cycle top will be around oct-nov of 2021 followed by a bear market which takes BTC to 20k as the floor again shaking out most retail and making it less affordable to accumulate From there BTC will be on the journey of 1 million roughly a year after the 4th halving It's important to note 4th halving will put rewards close to PI at 3.125
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by ILL_Midas
21
Bitcoin monthly channel heading to the 2024 halvingThe channel is drawn to what provides the best fit. In this case, it is the candle close. This is the best fit because the candle wick in Dec 2017 was relatively short-lived; it lasted about 2.5 days. However, the dotted arrow is drawn, considering the possibility that the price might overshoot out of the channel again. Even if it happens for a single day. Based on the analysis above we are looking to possibly hit these price targets: $200,000 $300,000 After the top, we would see an 80% as in the previous cycles taking us down to $60,000. In the past, it has taken us about a year to bottom out and an extra four to six months to begin the rally. However, it is challenging to imagine recovery times as prolonged for the next bear market. The reason is we've seen a considerable uptick in US regulation and institutions interest. Ex: The SEC is expected to make a decision on spot based ETFs by the end of October U.S. Banking regulators are exploring a 'roadmap' to engage with cryptocurrency (FDIC chairman) 5 US senators publicly support bitcoin BlackRock is invested in crypto companies and holds MicroStrategy shares Bitcoin is legal tender in El Salvador For those reasons, I've estimated the next bear market to last for significantly less time. Six months, half of its predecessors seems a reasonable approximation, plus-minus a couple of months. Something to observe is that in the previous two cycles, the price has gone down somewhere below the channel equilibrium line right as we approach the next halving. The blue circles and pink vertical line. That is an area to keep in mind for now. I would consider it irrelevant if the spot ETFs are approved in combination with other positive news.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by yalla-yalla-habibi
Bitcoin Halving 2024 | Is Possible $110-$120K Within 6-9 Months?This is the question that I will answer for your today. Can Bitcoin hit $110,000 to $120,000 in the next 6-9 months? It is a fair question, many people are bound to ask if prices can recover higher now that a strong correction has taken place... Please allow me to entertain you for a few minutes! Bitcoin peaked April 2021 The bullish wave that took place from July to November 2021 was the famous "dead cat-bounce". The drop from $64/$69K to $17.5K is not only a correction but a bear market. For BTCUSD to grow straight up to new highs, $100K and beyond, we would need to be just in a correction and not a bear market. Since we are in a bear market, this price bounce that we are seeing now cannot go straight to 100K and beyond, instead, support levels turned resistance will be tested one by one. Levels such as $30,000, $34,000 and $37,000 needs to be challenged first. $40,000 and $50,000 for sure as well as the ATH. We are likely to see very strong price swings in the months to come. We will also experience a prolonged consolidation phase, boring market, after the next low. The Bitcoin Halving ~March 2024 We say Bitcoin can go beyond $100,000USD only after 2024, around mid- to late 2025. The next halving event for Bitcoin is happening around March 2024 (projected date). This is a cyclical event and Bitcoin cannot have two bull-runs within the same halving cycle. Bitcoin will now bounce, then move probably to a lower low or just pretty near the recent June low and then start a long consolidation phase... Only after the Halving, which happens around March 2024, we can see a new phase of sustained long-term growth. Try to avoid being distracted by these types of articles as this can mess up your trading. If you think Bitcoin will go higher than where it can go, you might miss the selling opportunity coming next month. Summary Bear markets do not lead to new ATHs. Before the next bullish cycle a consolidation phase is due. The Bitcoin Halving determines the cycle. Answer Nope. Bitcoin cannot hit $110-$120K within 6-9 months. It will take around 2.5-3 years... Based on my calculations and experience of course, I can be wrong. Your turn now What's your idea? How long will it take before Bitcoin goes to $100K and beyond? Share in the comments section below! Namaste.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by AlanSantana
11
BTC Month chart from july 2022/april 2024 Theory. If BTC do an Inverse H&S, would play out as going towards $60k end of year 2022, retracing to $30k between the coming months of 2023, consolidating and uprising towards $60k again breaking up. end of target $98k. RSI, would rise like 2018 meaning we had reach $60k or close to it. then consolidating to areas of not oversold but lower. similar as 2018. gaining momentum as we try breaking ATH. for setting a nice 92/96 RSI new ATH BTC-Bitcoin Halving is set for 2024 april 2 or sooner. by that time we should be ready for the bull market, real price discovery might happen 2024. Reason. we had force selling from miners. china ban./ then having leverage force selling. $$$ on sidelines waiting to play this monthly pattern. not looking at daily or weekly. Moving Average would act as support for a while during $35k weekly chart. if IH&S plays out. Final target $130k? then Correction A.K.A Bear market? RSI lines are for MONTH. ignore Weekly
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Dcnanox
4
Why Bitcoin can Bottom at $10,000Bitcoin (BTC), which hit an all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021, has been in free fall amid a broader market meltdown and is now down around 70%. So while Bitcoin is battling the big psychological number of $20,000 in the short-term, the real bottom could even be around the $10,000 mark. 4-Year Halving Cycle Bitcoin's 4-year halving cycle has a significant impact on the long-term price projection and has helped investors map the price action with great success. The 4-year cycle model suggests that Bitcoin price could plunge on average around 85%, which will put us near the $10,000 round number. However, since volatility in the crypto market is generally less than it was in the beginning, we can also assume that Bitcoin may not fall quite as low, and we may fall only around 80%. In that case, the $14,000 support may serve as the bottom if the volatility in the crypto market keeps decreasing. During the previous halving cycles, each subsequent cyclical high was followed by extreme sell-off periods: • From the 2013 high, the BTC price plunged 86% • From the 2017 high, the BTC price plunged 84% Additionally, each halving cycle low was established 18 to 17 months before the next halving event. The next halving event is scheduled to happen on March 2024, which means that if we measure 17-18 months back from that period, we need to hit the next cyclical low somewhere around September-November this year. RSI Oscillator By comparison, during the previous halving cycle low, the monthly RSI oscillator was near the 44 reading, and today's RSI reading is near the same momentum readings. While we need to wait for the monthly candle close to get the final RSI reading, the next 2 months are critical, as ideally, we would need BTC's price to have a swift move to the downside to re-test $10,000. This should be followed by a speedy recovery so that the monthly close is around $20,000, which will give us a perfect "V" shape bottom. However, a more realistic approach would be to have a long consolidation period near the bottom first before recovering, thus having a "U" shape bottom. This "U" shape bottom occurred following the last 2 sell-offs. Therefore it is most likely to transpire again.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by cryptohopper
2
BTC projection until after halving 2024.Waiting for9k region and cme gap to close at that level . Then later we should see a mini bull run up to 36k where there is another gap .All of this to happen in the first quarter of 2023 and then we should see another bear run where btc from 36k to fall up to 9k again before the halving event occurs. After the halving i expect btc to go and hit 100k which is another psychological level , and you can see there is a resistance starting from 20k and 60k which continues and it shows that there is a possibility that btc touches 100k in 2025.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by CrocoCrypto
When Will Bitcoin find a Bottom? Check this Long-Term ChartBitcoin's (BTC) slide seems to have no end in sight, with investor sentiment showing extreme fear. Yet, there's a light at the end of the tunnel, and to understand where Bitcoin goes from here, we need to step back and look at the bigger picture. Bitcoin Log Long-Term Chart As per our in-depth analysis, Bitcoin's long-term logarithmic regression channel is still in play. In the worst-case bearish scenario, the BTC price can retest the lower ban of the channel, which can be found near the $10,000 psychological number. In the short term, the $20,000 support will play a significant role because it's near the 50 simple moving average, which tracks the 4-year halving cycle. Additionally, $20,000 also represents the all-time high from the previous bull cycle in 2017. 4-Year Halving Cycle The current sell-off follows the 4-year halving cycle. After the first and second halving events, Bitcoin made a new all-time high, followed by a 13-month bearish market in both cases. A crypto bear market usually has an average length of 9.6 months. Time-wise, if the current sell-off from the November 2021 all-time high continues to follow the 4-year halving cycle, we can expect Bitcoin to find an ultimate bottom by around December 2022. Additionally, the RSI oscillator has fallen below the previous 2 valleys reaching the lowest monthly reading of 41.96, which signals that we're still in a bearish market. Looking forward: In the short term, we can expect the sell-off to slow down around the $20,000 support, but the analysis suggests a bottom to only emerge by the end of the year.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by cryptohopper
1
Bitcoin - Bear market cheat sheetKeep it plain, simple and minimize the noise! On this chart I am showing you the timeframes of events that occurred in the previous bear market. Now, this chart will of course only make sense if we follow the same trend of the previous bear market of course, although I think its great to keep an eye on just in case we do! Important to ignore your favourite bullish influencers in these times, as in reality we still have a lot longer of a bear season to embrace. Bottoms take time to form, there is nothing bullish about Bitcoin and Crypto at the moment, due to the lack of volume and reaction, there is almost a 0% chance of a "V shaped recovery" like some clowns are mentioning. Keep an eye on the monthly MACD, as I have said previously we will not have any real bullish action if it is in red, if you refuse to believe - look back at the previous times it has crossed red.. If we get a fake pump into the 40-50k zone around the area marked on the chart, best to not FOMO into it if you missed it from the bottom - high chances it will be a bull trap, going off previous data. There are lots of external global economic factors to consider as well, as they will invalidate every single chart and idea, Crypto has never experienced a recession and my best bet is that it will not go well, due to being one of the most riskiest assets. So keep an eye on the global economy, global events and you will be on top of the market. Note: I have labelled current price as bottom and crab stage, although I do expect it to go lower: The reason I have done this is due to the massive volatility/price drops, with also the possibility based on another research piece I will post soon, that the crypto cycles are fluctuating in time (shorter bull, shorter bear). Stay safe everyone! Curious to see what everyone else's thoughts are, comment your ideas down below :)
INDEX:BTCUSD
by tradermoth