HANG SENG Patience until December for a long term buy.Hang Seng (HSI1!) made a massive bullish break-out in September as it broke above the February 2021 Lower Highs trend-line, effectively ending its Bear Cycle. This month (October) saw it getting rejected not just on the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line) but also on its 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
This is a key rejection as in almost 30 years, every time the price got rejected on the 0.618 Fib, it recovered on the 3rd (1M) candle after. As a result, December will give a buy signal based on this historic price action, so have patience and take a multi-month buy then.
In most of those cases, the index rebounded to the previous High, so our Target will be 30975. Notice also that the 1M MACD is rising off a Bullish Cross. When formed below the 0.0 mark, this has also been a massive buy signal.
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Hangseng
Is a Hang Seng Revival on the Horizon?The Hong Kong Index has faced challenging years since reaching its all-time high in 2018.
The downtrend accelerated in 2021, bringing the index to a low of around 15,000.
The subsequent reversal aligned neatly with horizontal resistance and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating that the bears were not finished yet.
Indeed, 2023 also saw a continued downtrend.
However, and this is crucial, the index did not make a new low. Instead, the decline halted at the strong 15,000 support level.
In early 2024, a significant break above the falling trend line was observed at the end of April. The correction that followed confirmed the broken trend line, suggesting that this breakout is genuine and indicates a long-term shift in trend.
September began with a higher low, followed by a powerful surge above the 20,000 level for the first time in over a year.
This sequence of events suggests the potential beginning of a long-term bull trend, with the possibility of the index reclaiming the 23,000 level by 2025.
For those looking to initiate a long-term buy position, there are two key levels to watch: 19,500, the former resistance level, and 18,500, which now serves as strong support.
Why would it hold? BAIDU Big LevelChina stocks have been beaten up in recent years as the US equities leave them in their wake.
From hearing NVDA is larger than the entire china equity market, to China will always be in a bear market…are we finally into enough of support to see a material rally?
BIDU is hitting a monthly support . This also happens as the US markets could be running into a distribution phase.
Will the US Dollar staying below $102 help this emerging market company?
HANG SENG Strong sell opportunity on recurring fractal.Hang Seng (HSI1!) closed below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) yesterday for the first time in a month and confirmed the rejection of August 30. That was a Lower High within the established Channel Down pattern that started on the May 20 High.
This Channel Down is so far following a similar structure with the one that covered the entirety of 2023. The August 30 rejection was in fact also done on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level after a -17.30% decline.
If this sequence of events continue to follow the April 17 2023 rejection, we should be expecting the new Lower Low to be formed on the -0.236 Fibonacci extension. Our Target is exactly on that level at 15700.
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HANG SENG Sell Signal on the 1D MA200.Hang Seng (HSI1!) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern and since the start of this week, it's sideways around the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). As long as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) remains intact, we continue to be bearish within this pattern, targeting 16000 next (Support 1), expecting this to be the start of the new Bearish Leg.
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Hang Seng bulls eye retest of 18kWe'll admit that the Hang Seng does not have the most bullish of structures among APAC indices, but it continues to defy bears with a break of key support. And if sentiment for global indices picks up as we suspect, it could pave the way for another cheeky long for Hang Seng bulls.
The index has seen three failed attempts to break beneath 17500 since late June. Sure, we saw one daily close below it, but the move was mostly reversed on Monday. A bullish divergence is also forming on the daily RSI (2), hence the bias for another crack at 18k minimum - a break above which brings the June and July highs around 18,400 into focus.
Yet as the 4-hour chart shows prices paused at the weekly pivot point with RSI (2) overbought, we'd prefer to wait to see if prices retrace within Monday's range before seeking longs. This could help improve the reward to risk ratio for bulls whilst prices hold above last week's low, with 18,000 and 18,400 in focus for upside targets.
TRIP.com / Beginning of Up Trend Stock Beginning of the trend Stock, breaking the Wyckoff accumulation Phase
and has Volume Profile Normal Distribution Support
The volume from Accumulation Phase has not yet been sold out. It can continue with accumulated volume with first target at 261.8 Fibonacci Retracement and cluster with 161.8 of Fibonacci Extension.
Strategy Buy on dip at 368 - 390 for buy set 1 and if the price drops to 368, there is still buy set 2 at prices 330-355 by waiting for Reversal Pattern.
Trading in your plan with your faith,
C.Goii Super Trader
HANG SENG Strong buy opportunity on the 1D MA50.Hang Seng (HSI1!) has been consolidating on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for 4 straight days. Technically it is an attempt to form a bottom, which includes also the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, measured from the April 19 Higher Low.
The last time a trend both the 1D MA50 and 0.5 Fib was on December 28 2023 and 2 days later. As you can see that was a downtrend of 2 phases and after the 0.5 Fib/ 1D MA50 test, the price got rejected, starting the 2nd phase that extended up until the 1.5 Fibonacci extension, where the market bottomed.
As a result, it is highly likely to see a symmetrical mirror pattern. This time the 1.5 Fib ext is at 21600 and that is our medium-term Target.
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HANG SENG This pull-back is the final buy opportunity.Hang Seng (HSI1!) has started a technical pull-back after getting rejected at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Bullish Megaphone. The minimum correction within this 4-month pattern has been -5.29%, so we are looking to buy after such a dip, potential 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) test and target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (19700). This is the standard target on Inverse Head and Shoulders patterns.
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Hang Seng: Is a Turnaround Coming?The Hang Seng Index, with everything measured in Hong Kong Dollars rather than US Dollars, offers a distinct perspective within our analysis portfolio, focusing on the Hang Seng Index Futures contract. Starting with a weekly chart overview, we've identified that the initial cycle likely concluded in 2008, followed by a flat correction. Notably, the correction for Wave B exceeded 100%, suggesting that the drop towards Wave (A) level, or slightly lower, is plausible.
However, there's an alternative perspective that at Wave (A) already concluded Wave II, although the rapid temporal progression for such a wave suggests this is less likely. We anticipate further declines, yet it's critical to acknowledge a potential Wave (1) and Wave (2) formation at the 78.6% level. A drop below this point should lead us towards the HK$10,500 mark, aligning with our initial entry point around HK$11,300. Despite this, it's premature to issue a limit order given the ample time to observe developments.
Daily chart observations further indicate an expectation of a 5-wave structure from (B) to (C), which has been forming quite elegantly despite Wave ((iv)) intruding into Wave ((i)) territory. This necessitates our acceptance of the current count unless we opt for an interpretation that sees a completed Wave (2) at the point marked as Wave ((iii)).
Delving into the 4-hour details reveals a persistent downtrend from the onset of what's identified as Wave ((iv)). To reverse this trend, surpassing the invalidation zone would be crucial, suggesting a reconsideration for long positions. Until such a shift occurs, the bear flag's presence likely continues to restrain any significant upward movements in the market.
HANG SENG Bearish for the next 2 months.Hang Seng (HSI1!) is trading within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The dominant pattern is a Channel Down and as long as the 1D MA200 holds as a Resistance, we will continue selling every Lower High.
The structure of the pattern is similar to the 2021/22 Channel Down. Once the 1D MA50 breaks again, we will have a confirmed sell signal, targeting the bottom of the Channel Down at 14500.
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Hang Seng Analysis - Continuous, Just as the Markets !This is a Thread, so Follow for Technical Analysis performed with TrapZone Pro & UMVD Indicators.
* Trend is Based on TrapZone Color
* Bar Colors give us Momentum Green from strong Up Moves. Red Bars point to strong Down Moves.
* Red UMVD = Selling Pressure & Green UMVD = Buying Pressure. Purple is for Divergence = Battle of Supply & Demand
>> USE PAGE DN to go DOWN To the LATEST Post <<
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2-25-2024
Strong Upside Momentum with wide GREEN TrapZone established for a while and GREEN UMVD continues. Class A Entry at the top of the TrapZone.
Xiaomi: Still some Room! ⬆️Xiaomi stock has retreated somewhat in recent days. Nonetheless, we are sticking to our primary assumption that the price is likely to surpass the highs from November once again as part of the magenta wave (B) in order to form the high a good deal further north. Accordingly, we expect a return to this short-term bullish path in the near future. It is important to note, however, that the 33% probable alternative would already allow the high to be in place. We would favor this scenario in the event of significant declines. A far-reaching descent is also on the agenda in our primary scenario after the current (corrective) wave (B) has ended. The price should only finalize the big wave II in grey and thus the big correction below the support at HK$8.31.
HANG SENG Buy opportunity.Hang Seng (HSI1!) has been trading within a Channel Down throughout the whole year. As the rice hit its bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) on December 11 and the 1D MACD formed a Bullish Cross, we expect the new Bullish Leg towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend trend-line) and the to (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down.
The average rise within this pattern has been around 11% and based on that, we are targeting 17700.
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A few trends in China's economyToday, we would like to briefly discuss a few underlying trends in China's economy, touching on the subject of unemployment, demographics, and deflation.
Youth unemployment
While the unemployment situation has improved in 2023, youth unemployment (for those aged between 16 and 24) has been a longtime issue in China. Indeed, it has steadily risen since 2018 (back then, it stood at around 10%), with government programs promoting a higher level of education contributing to the problem. As a matter of fact, this year, in June, the youth unemployment rate hit a staggering 21.3%, prompting the Chinese government to stop reporting the number.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of China’s unemployment rate.
Demographics and fertility
Another big issue in China is the country’s aging population and declining fertility among women. The median age has risen from 28.9 years in 2000 to 34.1 years in 2010 and 37.4 years in 2020. On the other hand, the average number of births per woman stood at 1.6 in 2000; in 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2017, the average rose to 1.8. But since 2018, the rate has been rapidly collapsing. In 2021, the number stood at 1.2, representing approximately 33% decline since 2018.
China’s deflation
As much of the Western world grapples with inflation, China has the opposite problem. For November 2023, the country recorded -0.5% deflation compared to the previous year. With that said, there were three periods when China experienced deflation (annually) since the 1990s. The first period occurred between 1998 and 1999, when the annual inflation rate was -0.8% and -1.4%. The second instance took place in 2002, and the third in 2007. For the eleven months of 2023, the inflation rate averages about 0.3%, the lowest figure since 2009.
Housing prices
Amid the ongoing property crisis in China, house prices have been sliding down this year. Actually, there were only two prints when the year-over-year change was not negative, particularly in June 2023 (coming in at 0.1%) and July 2023 (coming in at 0%).
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Anta Sports: Turning Point Reached 🛑The bears dominated Anta Sports' price action last week, causing further sell-offs. Given this development, we do not consider the magenta wave (x) to be over yet and give it some room to fall. However, the price should not fall too much further and especially not below the support level of HK$67.85. Above this level, the low should be reached and the bullish move in the form of the magenta-colored wave (y) should resume. On the other hand, a break below this level would trigger our alternative scenario, to which we assign a fairly high probability of 44%, which would entail a direct completion of the green wave (2).
Hang Seng Index: Motivated! 💪The bulls were able to push the Hang Seng Index significantly higher on Friday, moving it further away from the yellow trading range between 17,424 and 15,571. However, we still expect the price to return to this area as part of the magenta wave (2) to make a lower low before the reversal occurs. That said, given the price action so far, we have to increase the probability of our alternative to 41%. In this case, the low of the magenta wave alt.(2) would already be in place and this scenario would come into play on a rise above the resistance at 18,898. However, it should be noted that our long-term expectation has already been fulfilled with the completion of the trading range. In both cases, there is considerable upside potential in the medium to long term. The price should clearly overcome the resistance at 20,899.
Geely: Bears are back 🍯🐻The bears have now pushed Geely stock back below its March low. This confirms our primary scenario that the stock is in the final phase of the overarching gray wave II from the high of the magenta wave (B). This move should now be advanced to the green target zone between HK$7.80 and HK$4.12. With the low placed, the price should then move significantly higher.
Hang Seng Index: High-flyer 🌟The Hang Seng Index is currently in a strong rise. As the yellow trading range between 17 424 and 15 571 points has already been approached, it is quite possible that the low of the magenta wave alt.(2) has already been set. We give this scenario a 40% probability and it would become our primary scenario if the resistance at 18 898 points is broken. Until then, however, we must continue to expect that there will be another fall deeper into the trading range before the turnaround takes place.