Hangseng
Hang Seng putting in base for some July joy?!Hang Seng (HSI) which is heavily property weighted and led by some key stocks eg Tencent had one of its larger sell offs today, but looked to possibly put in a base around the key technical futures levels of around the 25000's /25500's. Bullish seasonality normally strong over July so a potential dip buying opportunity or part of a more major global weakness in the larger stock indices? Downside support levels at: 25000, then 24500's. Upsides: early to mid 27000's?
Hong Kong Hang Seng: Uptrend is Due This YearPretty weak, but still up
Hang Seng index, which represents Hong Kong stocks, was going down suring the recent few months. But right now it appears to be reversing, or at least correcting, to the upside. What to expect this year?
Let's recognize a bit of Hang Seng nature from the technical point of view. Look at the chart.
30% per rally
Most of the rallies last 6 years had the same overall percentage of price rise: 30-35%. So for now this is the "nature" of Hang Seng, which means we can expect the same % of growth in future rallies. Each rally usually takes around 4-6 months, so we may expect the same timing in the future.
Angles resistance
According to the angles drawn on my chart, we can see a pretty strong resistance somewhere in the red square. Once the price hits that square, the reversal to the downside (or at least bigger correction) is expected.
Price target: 28000 within this year
Once the uptrend is finally confirmed, expect the yearly top at around 28000. Angle resistance zone coincides with the 30% growth "nature", so this is a pretty realistic price target.
Hang Seng Index - 07 Sept. 2016 - S/R zones for coming weeks07 Sept. 2016
Hang Senf Index - 4 Hour Chart
Index is now reach a resist level, but buying is strong, expect index to continues the up trend after a correction to the support levels.
The STRONG Resist Zone is where I expect a nice sell back down to the support zone below in this chart, once index manage to climb and reach it, may be in mid. Oct. so watch out for it!
Here was my previous long term Forecast of this trade:
HSI Direction Forecast since 30 Aug. 2015 to 02 March 2016
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HangSeng Index1st weekly target already hit, not very safe to enter now. Now is the time to wait patiently for RSI to retrace to 50 level before deciding on the next step. It is 21bars since the last MACD cross, if the retrace is deep, it might go down to meet the MACD (green circle); which I doubt so. Any thing beyond 23k is already pushing the envelope. For this chart, the best place to take profit would be RSI 70 (if it can reach). Sometimes, you refer to old charts and do not see RSI 70, this could be due to the long tails during intra candle.
Hong Kong Protests Pushing HSIndex LowerWith the two day holiday in Hong Kong starting tomorrow the white collar sect of Hong Kong will be joining the demonstrations condemning Xi Jinpings proposal to screen candidates for the 2017 leadership election. I am looking at the index heading back towards the lows of May with the 0.236 fib level likely to act as the next support.