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Hangseng

HANG SENG - Could we get further decline?I took a short at the areas at the top, it was looking very over extended. The line I always use and think when I analyse and my life philosophy - What goes up must come down - and vice versa. But the key question is - if we go below further the trend line up, and we have clear further declined I would short the further decline. However, we are at a key area and test the areas of the highs again. Smaller time frames my indicate patterns or candle formation to validate further.
TVC:HSI
by Trade_Journal
Coming Down NicelyAfter the Buying Climax on 7th of July, brief distribution was carried out between 25950-26250. Today saw a gap down and a selloff to first of the 4 unfilled gaps below which is acting as a support for time being. Key resistance above now is 25850-950. Move down so far appears to be in a channel formation. Major chunk of distribution took place between 24500-300 since the low in March. Gap through that will signal the start of a markdown and accelerated move towards 20k and below. Regards
HKEX:HSI1!Short
by Dec0der
4
Update: SELL SELL SELL!!! More on the post earlier Today. HSI now has rallied beyond the point which i have marked for few weeks as the potential turning point. We may see brief distribution between 25950-26250 for couple of sessions and then move lower. I am to remain short until it breaks above 26800. I am of a view that the rally so far this month after the passing of controversial security law is to trap the investors who were on the sidelines waiting to see how the market perceives the new law. There is 10 weeks of distribution near 24k. If it reverses, 20k may come in no time.
HKEX:HSI1!Short
by Dec0der
2
Breaking up with HUGE VolumeToday saw a huge surge in volume in the morning hour. Double the usual. Next few days are critical. From a bullish POV, HSI is now breaking out of a 10 week range with a high volume but to predict whether it truly is a break to the top or a trap, it is important to know what happened within the range and how the market approached the breakout. To my understanding, it was distribution(as i have been pointing out in my previous posts) and there is very little left in it. 2 possible scenarios to top out are as drawn on the chart. Triangle(Blue). Ending Diagonal(Orange). Regards
HKEX:HSI1!Short
by Dec0der
HSI UpdateTop did come albeit 2 days late, important or not, we will know in next few days. Ideally, i would like to hv seen more distribution between 25k-26k but as pointed out in previous posts, there was high volume selling in the last move up from 22400 so it was bound to run out of gas real soon. Pullbacks should be capped below 24500. Definitely dont want to see 24800 tested anytime soon. 22900-22400 will be key and if the markdown has started, this area needs to be quickly overcome perhaps with an acceleration gap. I am not of a view that it is the start of deflationary crash as many expect and fear. NOT YET at least. Refer to my 23 May post, "Markdown or Shakeout?" linked below. Quickly down to 20k and back to 25k-26k :D. One can dream.
HKEX:HSI1!Short
by Dec0der
Important TOP just ahead. Didn't get the pullback before run for new highs as anticipated in the last analysis but on the flip side it means very little left to distribute. A pullback would have meant more to distribute above but now it looks like a quick up and back down. We have 7 weeks of distribution mainly between 23750 - 24250(See previous posts) Without volume, the last few days may seem like a start of a strong uptrend but zoom in and it appears very much like a SL hunt. Trends can't start without first accumulation/distribution and i see very little accumulation below for it to keep going for long. Initial plan was to go short at 25300-500 but not sure if we will get there so i will look for reversal signs as soon as it gets above 24800. Target 20500 - 20000. Some news will follow real soon as always but markets only move when those who control them are ready to move.
HKEX:HSI1!Short
by Dec0der
Hong Kong Stock Index (The Late Sellers are trapped now)View On Hong Kong Stock Index (16 MAY 2020) It has hit our expected TP level yesterday. If a trader rushed into HSI shorted over the bad situation gets trapped now. This is how the market works. I will be waiting for another entry, possibly short at a higher level. Possibly near 24,250 regions. Legal Risk Disclosure: Trading foreign exchange or CFD on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor. DISCLAIMER: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information discussed in this presentation or linked to from this presentation are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. Sonicr Mastery Team does not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
OANDA:HK33HKD
by SonicDeejay
Interesting Monday ahead All set for a very interesting Monday's opening. Channel support held on for whole week while the sellers kept up the pressure and are now just above the accumulation zone. Gap up will trap the sellers and may not fill in near term with price quickly marching towards 25k. Gap down will open the door towards first the gap at 21882 and then towards march low at 20968. If Monday opens near the current prices then watch out for trap(First move usually being a trap) Volume was high whenever price came back in the accumulation zone which is often the case prior to a significant move. Short term = Neutral, Medium Term = Bullish, Long Term = Bearish.
HKEX:HSI1!
by Dec0der
Which is The Hang Seng 50 Going? (HSI) WAVE 5 Down!!! Hang Seng China 50 Index is a pan-China stock market index to represent the top 50 China-based companies in the stock exchanges of Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen, which covers A share (shares circulated in mainland China), H share (shares circulated in Hong Kong from the mainland China incorporated company), Red Chip (shares circulated in Hong Kong from the companies incorporated outside mainland China with state-owned background) and P Chip (shares circulated in Hong Kong from the companies with private background)
HSI:HSIShort
by iTradeAIMS
USDHKD at Peg Support, and Hang Seng Break!I wrote a post regarding the US and China and the Thucydides trap, and if a cold war is in the works, watch for spheres of influence to be brought up and tested. The Chinese are adamant on Taiwan and Hong Kong being a part of China’s sphere of influence and the Americans should not be meddling with Chinese interests. Last year, the protests in Hong Kong were rampant and we saw thousands hit the street opposing the CCP’s 1 country, 2 systems approach as mainland China has a large say in Hong Kong’s Basic Law and foreign affairs. This heated up as a famous Hong Kong author, who published works condemning the CCP, was kidnapped and taken to the mainland, before being returned to Hong Kong with a new approach to the CCP. Go figure. Hong Kongers have been fighting against this encroachment by the CCP which threatens British and Basic Law in Hong Kong. Many have said that the only reason the CCP did not move in troops to quash the protests, was the fact that Hong Kongers would be able to upload videos on social media of the oppression. The CCP does not control the internet kill switches and has not extended their internet great wall into Hong Kong. The eyes of the world would be watching and China’s reputation on the world stage would be tarnished. These protests died off as quarantine was issued to fight against covid-19...something that many have speculated has benefitted the CCP the most. Covid got the people off the streets. With tensions between the US and China flaring up again, Hong Kong is taking centre stage. The phase 1 trade deal, which seems to have been nothing but a temporary truce, is now dead and both sides did NOT meet up as they said they were to discuss the progress. We have had President Trump say that he did not want to speak with President Xi, and yet the Premier of China spoke about how the trade deal is still one of importance for China. President Trump then wrote a letter to the World Health Organisation, threatening to cut funding if they do not change. This is very much tied to how they did not investigate and hold China accountable for preventing the spread of the virus. To add more fuel to the fire, the US senate passed a bill allowing for the delisting of Chinese companies if they fail to meet US security regulations, which they pretty much all do since they do not use GAAP standards of accounting. And then, the US and Taiwan are now set to sign a 180 million dollars arms deal, something which has ticked off the Chinese. Both nations here need to look strong, and this is where many are expecting China to react and retaliate. President Xi is under pressure to make a strong move. Many people forget that he can easily be replaced. Will Hong Kong be that show of power and strength? Enter the National Security Law. A bill is set to be signed, which would allow the mainland to send in forces into Hong Kong under the event of security issues such as protests, mutiny etc. One that could be applied if hundreds of thousands hit the streets of Hong Kong like they did before the pandemic. Carrie Lam, who is the Chief Executive of Hong Kong (chosen by the CCP), is losing her support base very very quickly. How much longer she lasts is anybody's guess, but it does not seem she will have the support of the people, especially once she signs this bill. So how do we play this? Well it was important to lay the geopolitical foundation. What China does in Hong Kong will be important because the Americans are now saying there will be repercussions if this National Security Law is signed in. SInce last year, the Hong Kong protests have been seen carrying US flags and even portraits of President Trump, pleading for the US to stand up for Hong Kong...something I am sure has really ticked off the CCP. Expect Hong Kong and its economy to remain under pressure. Let us take a look at both the USDHKD and the Hang Seng, both of which are showing great plays. In terms of the currency, Hong Kong has a currency board which maintains the Hong Kong Dollar pegged between 7.75-7.85. As you can see here on the charts, we are at the support level of 7.75 which will have to be maintained for the peg to operate. You can see here on the daily chart, the Hong Kong Dollar appreciated and has ranged since April. A breakout here seems imminent. This is almost a free money trade. Unless we get a major event, perhaps even could be seen as a black swan event. That is, the peg is broken and the Hong Kong Dollar is free floated. This would have a huge impact of course on the Hong Kong economy, but also the world of finance as Hong Kong is one of the centres for finance not only in Asia, but in the world. In fact, this is what people like Kyle Bass and Brent Johnson have been speaking about. Brent Johnson approaches this with his US Dollar milkshake theory. That there will be a run into US Dollars which will see the Dollar move much much higher. He has said in a Real Vision interview that the USDHKD is a great way to play this. Yes, a higher Dollar will wreck emerging market currencies, but a higher Dollar will force the peg to break. Kyle Bass approaches this more from a geopolitical angle. That Hong Kong, which has one of the largest real estate bubbles in the world, is now in trouble. He believes that the Hong Kong currency board may not even have enough US Dollars anymore to maintain the peg, which will force the peg to break. If they do not have enough US Dollars, and the Dollar moves higher according to Johnson’s theory, this just adds more strength to the eventuality of the peg being broken. Furthermore, Bass has spoken about the troubles of the bank HSBC. Bass is also bearish on the Hong Kong stock market, given the troubles in the economy and also the geopolitical uncertainties going forward. What I found very interesting, was the fact that the Hong Kong and China 50 equity markets moved much differently than their US, European and Japanese counterparts. The Hang Seng has broken below a very major zone. Here is the chart of the Hang Seng on the 4 hour chart, although it looks just as bearish on the daily and the weekly chart when you factor in market structure. The Hang Seng has been in a range on the 4 hour, just like many other markets that I have been following. The support zone of that range has been broken, with a nice strong candle close below. What I am looking for is now our first lower high. This can come in two ways. The first is we move back up to the broken zone and support now becomes resistance and we see sellers come in and defend the zone. Secondly, we form a lower high swing here right now. This could be occurring right now as you can see the pullback has been seeing sellers step in. For this scenario to play out, we need a lower low to confirm the swing. This would mean we need a break and close below 22730. Both of these plays could be much more longer term. The charts do look good, and the geopolitical environment is not very great for Hong Kong. It does seem Hong Kong will be a central point in this ‘cold war’ between the US and China, and how this issue is resolved will be telling on the future of US and China relations. The Chinese believe the US is meddling in Chinese domestic affairs, while the Americans are saying they are trying to uphold the rights of Hong Kong. I will definitely have my eyes on Hong Kong and I suggest you all do the same.
Long
by Uncharted-FX
Markdown or shakeout? Markets are controlled by very few. They manipulate as they please. They own everything. banks, hedge funds, media, governments. They are the culprits behind social unrest, Wars, Pandemics. No new law is passed without their approval. They have mastered the art of deceiving the masses and they are looking to further enslave the common. Big changes are on the way for which they will create global chaos the likes never seen before by mankind. Many things will be blamed as reasons. Do what they may but a Supreme power watches. Tyrants days are numbered.
HKEX:HSI1!
by Dec0der