Johnson's threats and pound fail: earning moneyYesterday Boris Johnson turned British politics upside down.
By the way, labour market data came out mixed. On the one hand, claims for unemployment benefits increased (+ 28,800 versus + 26,400 in October), and on the other hand, employment rate was higher than expected (24,000 with a forecast -14,000), and unemployment rate turned out to be better than experts expected (3.8% with a forecast of 3.9%).
Johnson stated the need for the legislative establishment of the deadline for the transition period, which is intended to coordinate and adopt a new EU trade agreement. We are talking about the end of 2020. The fact is that the development of a similar treaty between the EU and Canada took 7 years. And Johnson offers to do it in a year. Since this is practically unrealistic, as the EU representatives have already stated, the markets took Johnson’s position as a signal that exit without a deal ( so-called “hard” Brexit) is again becoming a real alternative.
As a result, the pound dropped below 1.31. Since our position on the pound was extremely clear - to buy, it is necessary to explain what to do now in the light of such information.
Well, to start with, our position has not changed, and a decline in the pound is an opportunity for cheaper purchases. It is necessary to clearly distinguish Johnson’s words from Johnson’s actions, that is, what he is saying and what he is doing. Recall, we prefer to work with facts. So, the truth is there is an already developed agreement Johnson has also the parliament is under his control, that is, everything for a successful Brexit.
As for the inconsistency of his words and actions, then keep in mind his rhetoric in September-October: no delays after October 31. But, the agreement with the EU and the postponement of Brexit until January 31, 2020. So we will continue to buy the pound and consider yesterday's decline as a gift from Johnson. The only thing to keep in mind is that locally the decline may continue today until the 1.30 mark. Given the rate of decline, the chances of reaching this base level for the pound are quite large.
As for our other positions, they are unchanged: we are looking for points for selling the dollar, the Russian ruble, we are buying yen and gold.
